Pierre the Great Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Tories: 34 % Liberals: 29% NDP: 14% Green: 12% Bloc: 11% wow now if this poll is correct and the next election went exactly like this poll says Parliament would look like this: Conservatives: 104 seats (-20) Liberals: 89 seats (-14) NDP: 43 seats (+14) Green: 36 seats (+36) Bloc: 33 seats (-18) I rounded the numbers up so it equals 305 instead of 308. Now will the election look like this? doubt it. But if it did, holy cow. Would be interesting if this was the case though. Although I think the showing of the Greens in this poll shows that they aren't taking support from the NDP away like people said would be the case. And of course the Bloc's polling truly depends on the upcoming Quebec election. Also if the numbers came out like this on election day it would most certainly mean a coalition government. But wow, interesting poll even though it means truly nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mont Royale Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 The number of seats will not correspond to the popular vote, as you acknowledge. This is because the Bloc % is entirely concentrated in Quebec, while the other parties enjoy more broad based support (although there is certainly regional strengths with their support too, esp. the Tories in the West, and Liberals in the East). For example, the Tories are down only 2% from their actual popular vote in the last election, so they wouldn't drop by 20 seats. I'll be interested to see if the Green Party vote is regionally based (e.g. probably a lot of support in BC), which would decrease their chances of getting significant seats. It will also be interesting to see if their support is sustainable. Many people say they support the party, but may feel they'd be wasting their vote come election time and decide to vote for one of the mainstream parties. Some will vote Liberal just to try to stop the Conservatives, for example, even though they are Green. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeLassister Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Green will never get 36 seats and the Bloc will stay around 50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athlétique.Canadien Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Harper getting this deal with Bill Gates is very clever. Bono will be happy. This really steals some Liberal thunder IMO Harper, Gates announce AIDS vaccine initiative-CBC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bacchus Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Yeah, don't count on Quebec going Green, Liberal, NDP, or Conservative. If anything they would go Liberal, but they are still hurting from the sponsorship program. They need to get burnt by something else before they go Liberal again ... unless Charest kicks it again, and then runs for PM himself. Onz vera! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted February 20, 2007 Author Share Posted February 20, 2007 anybody read the Chantal Hebert article a couple days ago? http://www.thestar.com/opinion/article/182689 she said if the PQ gets whipped in the upcoming Quebec election the Bloc would drastically suffer from a massive defeat of the PQ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athlétique.Canadien Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 anybody read the Chantal Hebert article a couple days ago? http://www.thestar.com/opinion/article/182689 she said if the PQ gets whipped in the upcoming Quebec election the Bloc would drastically suffer from a massive defeat of the PQ. I hope so. I don't really care if Harper wins but Charest is a must for the health of the country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted February 20, 2007 Author Share Posted February 20, 2007 I think the PQ is on the verge of collapse to be honest they've got what the federal Liberals are going through, they've got too much political infighting and as Hebert said they're seen as a metropolitan Montreal party now. So if the PQ collapses after this election I wouldn't be shocked to see the same happen to the Bloc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeLassister Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 I think the PQ is on the verge of collapse to be honest they've got what the federal Liberals are going through, they've got too much political infighting and as Hebert said they're seen as a metropolitan Montreal party now. So if the PQ collapses after this election I wouldn't be shocked to see the same happen to the Bloc. A collapse for the PQ would be the worst thing ever for the Québec democracy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted February 20, 2007 Author Share Posted February 20, 2007 in what way, Joe? It sure looks like we're about to see a giant collapse of the PQ. How would it be "bad"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athlétique.Canadien Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 in what way, Joe? It sure looks like we're about to see a giant collapse of the PQ. How would it be "bad"? Because then "money and ethnics" would take over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted February 20, 2007 Author Share Posted February 20, 2007 lol ac lol just realized where Joe is on the political spectrum. There's always Quebec Solidaire. well last federal election basically told the Liberals to figure out things about themselves and I guess that's what's going to happen to the PQ. Every party goes through it. When parties lose focus on what they stand for then they have to stop, look themselves into the mirror and say what do I stand for. If they can't answer that question then they need some serious re-structuring and re focus. The thing about Quebec politics I've never understood is that there isn't a left party like the PQ except instead of being for nationhood they're for Canada. I have a hard time believing that in a province thats so left of centre there isn't a group of democratic socialists that are for socialist values but also for Quebec to stay in Canada. If all those type of people vote for the Liberals because its the only pro-canada party then okay I get that but now that Charest runs the Liberal party its gone to the centre or progressive conservative. I'm saying there is a huge whole in the Quebec political spectrum that is untouched. Sort of like a moderate political party in British Columbia. There isn't any! There's the NDP and then the BC Liberals who privatize everything and anything. Talk about a huge political spectrum swing. So for the pro-Quebec nationhood people a collapse of the PQ would actually be good in a way for their cause because it mean the movement as a whole would have to refocus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jean Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 The future of the Conservatives in Québec all depend on the next budget. if they deliver the goods the Bloc will loose it's cause and will become insnigificant as they have nothing anymore to whine about. If they fail to the Bloc wil retake Québec City and the Conservative will be right back where they started, below 10%. Also no matter what the Conservatives does, the Libs will gain back the seats they lost to the bloc in Montréal. They shouldnt have lost places like Jeane le Ber to start with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobRock Posted February 22, 2007 Share Posted February 22, 2007 Tories: 34 % Liberals: 29% NDP: 14% Green: 12% Bloc: 11% You also forgot to factor in the margin of error, which is normally 4-5 points. Most polling experts would call this a dead heat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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