Election Thread: Canada |TBA or October '09|

[Pierre the Great]

Hard to look at last nights results as anything but bad news for Jack Layton and the NDPs. They struggled to finish ahead of the Green party in 3 of 4 ridings. These results are starting to show what I have expected for the last year. The NDPs monopoly as the 'alternative' party is coming to an end and they are going to have to fight tooth and nail to retain a good chunk of their current seats.

Off the top of my head there are a few NDP toronto seats that are now going to be vulnerable (Olivia Chow's is one off the top of my head) as well as hopefully some seats in the West.

one problem. The Greens are not a party of the Left. They're progressive conservatives who like carbon taxes and are self righteous.

Majority of Canadians don't know this, its like Hitler and his National Socialist Party, he just added the socialist part because he had to, he had the Communists and the SDP to run against, who both talked about socialism. Same for the Greens. Canadians who aren't paying attention think the Greens are lefties, when they're corporate big wigs who just happen to care about the environment.

This election, probably but once the Greens get a seat in the commons or have enough MPs to actually be recognized. Everyone will see how wacky they are.

Here in B.C. the Green Party is in league with the B.C. Liberals for crying out loud. B.C. Liberals. right wing party. lol

When the Liberals implode where are the Liberal voters going to park? I really doubt Liz May and the Greens.

[Pierre the Great]

These days you get more done provincially then Federally which is just a side show now.

And I love the doom and gloom coming from the Liberals. You guys win 3 out of 4 bye elections in places that always vote Liberal and somehow you think you're ready to take over the world again.

lol

If I were a Liberal I'd be more worried about your fearless leader and his inability to go anywhere. NDP isn't going anywhere, in fact you could say we're the strongest party in Canada right now if you take in provincial politics.

[nhfarber]

did you just compare the Green party to the Nazis?

[nhfarber]

Also important to note that you've taken my point and twisted it out of context (something to be expected from a dipper)

What I said was that the Greens were replacing the NDP as the alternative choice for voters. Never did I say they were replacing them as the crazy lefty party. In Canadian politics you have two major parties (CPC and liberals) who most of the time receive the majority of votes federally. You also then have people who do not affiliate or agree with either party who cast a vote for a third party as a result. Any person casting a vote for a 3rd party cannot honestly believe that they will be voting for the next governing party of Canada. Any NDPer, or Green, or Bloc Quebecois that believes their party has a chance to win the most seats must be high on something.

People vote (on average, obviously not across the board) for a 3rd party as a protest to the major two. It's the voters way of saying we dont like either of you, however we more identify with _____________. The Green Party whether they are right wing or left wing or centrist is starting to gain more of the federal protest vote than the NDP.

The NDP will never truly die because there are still a core group of people in the country that believe in the NDP socialist values but I think we have seen the last of the NDP claiming more than 10 seats in the House of Commons for a long while.

[Pierre the Great]

Also important to note that you've taken my point and twisted it out of context (something to be expected from a dipper)

What I said was that the Greens were replacing the NDP as the alternative choice for voters. Never did I say they were replacing them as the crazy lefty party. In Canadian politics you have two major parties (CPC and liberals) who most of the time receive the majority of votes federally. You also then have people who do not affiliate or agree with either party who cast a vote for a third party as a result. Any person casting a vote for a 3rd party cannot honestly believe that they will be voting for the next governing party of Canada. Any NDPer, or Green, or Bloc Quebecois that believes their party has a chance to win the most seats must be high on something.

People vote (on average, obviously not across the board) for a 3rd party as a protest to the major two. It's the voters way of saying we dont like either of you, however we more identify with _____________. The Green Party whether they are right wing or left wing or centrist is starting to gain more of the federal protest vote than the NDP.

The NDP will never truly die because there are still a core group of people in the country that believe in the NDP socialist values but I think we have seen the last of the NDP claiming more than 10 seats in the House of Commons for a long while.

Ohhh I wouldn't say that.

Greens though aren't going to affect NDP ridings. Give you example although I'm running late for class. Look at Vancouver Island Gulf Island riding. Its a 4-way battle most of the time. The Greens aren't coming from the NDP. They're most likely to come from people not affiliated with any party or conservative voters. If the Greens run on just the environment they don't fit in a perticular spectrum. But if they want to be legit and not crazy, they're going to have to talk about economics which puts them in the centre to centre-right column.

lol I'm not the Social Democrat that will defend the federal party that much. They're too activist oriented and play to the typical stereotypes that they've developed about themselves that they're not leaders just critics. Even then supporters admit that, some even say they don't really want to be in government because they think the party is better being in opposition. Well sorry confused ndpers that's total bullshit of being a party excuse. You can be idealist all you want but the goal is to WIN elections.

[Pierre the Great]

"New Democratic politicians have spent much of their time in the most recent parliamentary session levelling fire at Stéphane Dion and his Liberals.

Henry Jacek, a political science professor at Hamilton's McMaster University, said that makes sense because the NDP can expect to siphon off Liberal voters but would have a much more difficult time with Conservatives.

The New Democrats “essentially put no effort into most ridings and they just target certain kinds of ridings,” said Dr. Jacek. “So there was no effort put into the two Toronto ridings or Quadra, which are affluent urban ridings that they don't have a chance in.”

That gave many NDP voters the licence to vote Green and they took it, he said. “But that won't happen in NDP-type ridings and generally probably won't even happen in a general election.”

James Laxer, a political science professor at York University in Toronto who once ran for the NDP leadership, said the problem for the Greens is that they have broad voter sentiment across the country but no real strongholds.

“It's still very likely, I think, that at the end of the day you are going to have a federal election in which the Greens win, maybe a seat and very likely no seats, even with their percentage of the vote,” said Prof. Laxer.

The NDP has bastions of power that they have built up over a long period of time. “And I don't see any reason, based on these results, to conclude that that's not going to be the case in the next election.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...9/BNStory/Front

i said the same thing, now I've got the historians and doctors on my side.

If the Federal Election is run on the environment. Greens will get mass support in a protest vote.

If its run on economic issues or anything else for that matter, Greens will fizzle.

Edited March 19, 2008 by Pierre the Great

[Pierre the Great]

Oh and Faber may I ask what kind of Liberal are you? Because I can't honestly tell who's running the ship here.

Are you a Trudeau Liberal which is an NDPer.

or are you a Martin type Liberal who belong in the defunct Progressive Conservative Party?

If you're a trudeau liberal, lol. He's the only reason why the Liberals even exist anymore. 1961 NDP Convention, the CCF westerners didn't listen to Trudeau who wrote about a united Canada and decided to go with the Quebec delegation that pushed for a "Canada of two Nations". Trudeau then leaves the NDP, grudgingly joins the Liberals a couple years later... sorry to go revisionist history on you.

The Liberals are alive today out of merely stupid freaking luck. They're the lucky party. Conservatives are the divided party and the NDP doesn't have any luck at all.

[Pierre the Great]

wow. Pierre the prognosticator keeps his winning streak alive. Somebody from the networks freaking hire me already.

destined to be a strategist lol

look what the Liberals are saying about Quadra:

"“That we can be very competitive in downtown Vancouver is a good-news story for us and something that will be very encouraging for our overall team,” said Chuck Strahl, B.C. Tory MP and Indian Affairs Minister, lauding a “strong local organization” for getting supporters to the polls.

“This myth that we can't do well in Vancouver is … going out the window,” he said. “We haven't been within a sniff of that riding [Quadra] for a generation and we came within just a handful of votes.”

But the Liberals say the Tories are exaggerating the significance of their Vancouver Quadra showing, pointing out that conservative-minded parties won the largest vote share in recent ballots. In both 1997 and 2000, Liberals note, the combined share of the Quadra vote captured by the Progressive Conservatives and Reform/Canadian Alliance candidates exceeded the winning Liberal vote.

The Liberals say the biggest reason their traditional lead eroded on Monday was the surging vote for the Green Party, which they say stole more votes from the Liberals than the New Democrats.

The Green vote share in Quadra jumped 8.4 percentage points to 13.5 per cent in the by-election from 5.1 per cent in the 2006 ballot.

“There are some folks that may have voted Liberal in the past and wanted to send us [as riding incumbents] a message on climate change and sustainability – and we got that message loud and clear,” said Bruce Young, British Columbia Liberal campaign.

“I think the rationale with some of these voters is by voting Green they could … further move us into a more aggressive position than maybe we've historically taken on the environment.”

Another Liberal strategist speaking on background said the Greens risk becoming a major spoiler in the next general election if this bleed-off of Liberal voters continues – a trend that could split the vote and elect Tories instead."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...9/BNStory/Front

run for the hills Liberals. Its the 14th of July 1798 baby!

Edited March 19, 2008 by Pierre the Great

[Pierre the Great]

Housing B.C. homeless would save $211M: report

A study says providing shelter for the homeless with severe addictions and mental illness throughout British Columbia could save taxpayers millions of dollars.

"Addiction is the most prevalent mental health problem in both the street homeless and at-risk populations, followed by concurrent disorders and, less frequently, mental illness alone,'' says the Simon Fraser University report.

The paper -- entitled "Housing and Support for Adults With Severe Addictions and/or Mental Illnesses in British Columbia'' -- says providing non-housing services for such people costs the public system more than $55,000 per year per person.

It says providing adequate housing and supports could reduce this cost to $37,000 per year.

The team of researchers -- from SFU, the University of British Columbia and the University of Calgary -- says the overall "cost avoidance'' of such a plan is about $211 million per year.

"The costs of providing supported housing and other health services to this population . . . is lower than the cost incurred through the use of emergency departments, the corrections system and emergency shelters when they are homeless,'' the report says.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...0322?hub=Canada

In a country and fully developed world which preaches that everyone is equal; that goes to other countries and demand equality in the places don't have equality, we sure like treating our own well. When will we as a society realize we're stronger as a whole if everyone is truly "created equal". Homeless people aren't some pest of society, they're Canadians and people just like the rest of us.

end this nightmare

[Athlétique.Canadien]

OTTAWA–If the city of Toronto could determine the outcome of the next federal election, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion would be prime minister before Canada Day. But it cannot and what the tea leaves of Monday's four federal by-elections really suggest is that a majority Conservative government could be around the corner of a spring campaign

- Chantal Hébert

Chantal Hébert - Majority Conservative government possible?

Like I said Pierre some time ago. Polls go up and down. Governments experience highs and lows but never count those chickens...

At the very least this is an interesting if not surprising development.

[Pierre the Great]

Only part she got wrong is that the Green party is more of a threat to the Liberals. West Van's riding of Quadra for example:

(this is where she totally missed the boat here I think)

Liberal Joyce Murray 10,155 36.05% -12.79

Conservative Deborah Meredith 10,004 35.52% +6.43

New Democratic Party Rebecca Coad 4,064 14.43% -1.67

Green Party Dan Grice 3,792 13.46% +8.32

Neorhino.ca John Turner 110 0.39%

Canadian Action Party Psamuel Frank 40 0.14%

The Greens are here to stay as they'll get a massive protest vote in the next election. But in the richest riding in Canada NDP support only dropped 1.67% hardly "worrisome". Look how much the Liberals dropped. Most of that went to the Green Party.

here's what the riding looked like in the last federal:

Liberal Stephen Owen 28,285 48.84% -3.59

Conservative Stephen Rogers 16,844 29.09% +2.78

New Democratic Party David Askew 9,321 16.1% +1.11

Green Ben West 2,979 5.14% -0.46

Independent Betty Krawczyk 263 0.5%

Marijuana Marc Boyer 58 0.28%

Marxist-Leninist Donovan Young 41 0.09% +0.01

I'm in agreement that the Liberals are going to blow up, but the idea of that the NDP is going to suffer is a bit of a joke. The problem with the NDP is general public stereotypes and party structure. Then the f'd up in the first convention by allowed the Quebec delegations motion to pass, pushing Trudeau out of the party. NDP's the party of bad luck basically.

What we're looking at here is something akin to British Columbia's election of 1991 and 1996 and federal Election of '89.

IN BC

'91

NDP 40.71% (27 seat majority)

Libs 33.25%

Social Cred 24.05%

Green .86%

'96

NDP had 39% of vote (3seat majority)

Sun King 41% of the vote

far right 9%

Progressive Dem 6%

Green 2%

Then the craziness of BC was back in full force after the Führer came to power in '02

'05

Sun God 45.80% (13 Seat majority)

Resistance 41.52%

Greens 9.17%

Marijuana (was almost at 3% '01) .65

Work Less .09

Sex .02

People's Front .02

Communist .01

what happened?

Reform merged with Sun King and Sun King ran through this province like Hitler did Germany back in '33. haha

right wing populism was back. And just like Hitler blaming the Communists for Germany's problem, Sun King won on blaming BC's problems on the NDP and "fast ferries". lol lol skillful

god b.c. rules.

Edited March 24, 2008 by Pierre the Great

[Pierre the Great]

Anyway I'm beginning to care more about provincial politics then federal. Provincial no offence to the federal people is more exciting. I mean gosh, we've got the freaking Sun King of BC and all his smugness. Then you've got the sorry Greens who will take Liberal seats hopefully in '09 (Libs and Greens are in league with each other over here). Then you've got that party coming out of nowhere in the history of this place coming to power or force.

my guess is that the vote split will be 40/40/20. Which would be insane. Pretty much if Gordo gets a minority he's finished after the olympics when this place has an economic meltdown. If Gordo doesn't, 2013 he'll retire, disgraced, and the Liberals disappear.

Federal just can't compete.

Edited March 24, 2008 by Pierre the Great

[Athlétique.Canadien]

If there is something I will never understand it's the demographic headline of the week dumb Canadian voter. Right now Harper has much to explain and Lunchbox Joe will vote for him.

Or will it be Dion? Crazy Canada

[Pierre the Great]

If there is something I will never understand it's the demographic headline of the week dumb Canadian voter. Right now Harper has much to explain and Lunchbox Joe will vote for him.

Or will it be Dion? Crazy Canada

will the sheep come home to shepard Stephen. there's your nasty headline right there. ah ah

[Pierre the Great]

well this is sort of out from left field but has anybody read this?

http://www.amazon.com/######s-America-Oxfo...s/dp/0771086717

the title alone is hysterical, I know what its about, just want to know if its something I should read.

[Athlétique.Canadien]

well this is sort of out from left field but has anybody read this?

http://www.amazon.com/######s-America-Oxfo...s/dp/0771086717

the title alone is hysterical, I know what its about, just want to know if its something I should read.

Interesting and impressive PTG. Reading is a MUST. Thanks for the book link. I'll check it out.

Here's mine. You'll like it. Library should have it.

http://www.amazon.com/Canadian-Challenge-D...0636&sr=1-1

[Pierre the Great]

It's 3 bucks at Amazon. lol KoZed probably has read it, i remember him saying he's read just about everything there is on that topic, but I doubt he'll check out this thread. lol

[Athlétique.Canadien]

It's 3 bucks at Amazon. lol KoZed probably has read it, i remember him saying he's read just about everything there is on that topic, but I doubt he'll check out this thread. lol

I've read many like Oh Canada, Oh Quebec (Mordecai Richler) as well. Another good book on Quebec. There's much controversy over this book but in the scope of things and considering his unique view; it is worth reading. You've probably already read it though

[Pierre the Great]

Only Oh Canada book I've read was a comedy book on how to be Canadian

[Zowpeb]

Housing B.C. homeless would save $211M: report

A study says providing shelter for the homeless with severe addictions and mental illness throughout British Columbia could save taxpayers millions of dollars.

"Addiction is the most prevalent mental health problem in both the street homeless and at-risk populations, followed by concurrent disorders and, less frequently, mental illness alone,'' says the Simon Fraser University report.

The paper -- entitled "Housing and Support for Adults With Severe Addictions and/or Mental Illnesses in British Columbia'' -- says providing non-housing services for such people costs the public system more than $55,000 per year per person.

It says providing adequate housing and supports could reduce this cost to $37,000 per year.

The team of researchers -- from SFU, the University of British Columbia and the University of Calgary -- says the overall "cost avoidance'' of such a plan is about $211 million per year.

"The costs of providing supported housing and other health services to this population . . . is lower than the cost incurred through the use of emergency departments, the corrections system and emergency shelters when they are homeless,'' the report says.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...0322?hub=Canada

In a country and fully developed world which preaches that everyone is equal; that goes to other countries and demand equality in the places don't have equality, we sure like treating our own well. When will we as a society realize we're stronger as a whole if everyone is truly "created equal". Homeless people aren't some pest of society, they're Canadians and people just like the rest of us.

end this nightmare

I actually like this type of idea IF you could effectively control the potential fraud of people abusing the system for cheap housing. I think it would also allow people to understand who the "fake" pan-handlers are...and believe me, there are more people making a good bit of tax free money on the street then people realise. Sadly, while I do think the bulk of the homeless are suffering from some sort of affliction it's made worse by the fraudsters. I've seen stats that say 90% of homeless are mentally ill and/or suffer severe addictions...what I've seen personally puts the numbers at more like 60-70%. I also believe that there are a lot of people "running the business" of charities, care organizations, etc...and some of those people do not want to see homelessness end or they'll lose their left wing gravy train. As a result, the people who are in a high level position to effect change don't want to since they're earning big $$$, from government contracts and charity, as a result of it. I've said to people before that if they want to make some easy money they just need to start a charity and pay themselves a hefty salary to "administer" it...of course, no one would blame a do-gooder of that either...wouldn't be very politically correct.

[Pierre the Great]

lol zowpeb you marxist, with the left wing gravy train because lets face it homelessness is a business, which is true. They believe in what they're doing, but they also are making money off of it, like everything else in the capitalist world we live in.

As I've become basically desensitized from homeless people (as in it doesn't shock me anymore, after a while you get that feeling when living here).

a. the real people who need the help are in my area at least

-prostitutes

- the guy who's shooting up in the corner

- the aborignal woman who's looks unstable wandering around downtown

b. the people who look fake

- this guy was the greatest I swear, I was waiting with my friend at the Bay in Vancouver. She didn't have a schedule and neither did I plus she was sick with the flu so she wasn't pretty much helpless. A guy behind me starts talking about the ferry schedule, looks like he's going to get on the bus for the ferry. He gives me great detail of everything, which was great. Then he starts his line about food, stupid me goes "yeah I'm starving as well, hamburger would taste good right now." Basically I said the exact thing he said. Idiot was looking for change so he could get a meal. I figured him out told my friend we need to get away from the Bay for a bit. Sure enough 5 seconds later he starts up his act again.

hate those people because they're fakes

but in our world, nothing is perfect so the best we can do is to have enough to go around to help the most people, while at the same time, go after the ones who profit after it.

[Pierre the Great]

Well I must say, I think the Tories are afraid of Bob Rae.

Flaherty is officially a thug. Seriously what a smug a-hole, there's mocking opposition and then there's doing what Flaherty is doing and enjoying it the way he is. He's got the worst parliamentary ethics I've ever seen. I don't understand why the Conservatives have to be so vicious, but then again that's how they came to power. They know no other way, which is unfortunate and isn't healthy for long term survival prospects of a party. They should look to the south and see what the end of the road looks like. Flaherty the embarrassment of the Conservative Party.

Liberals and there team idea just might work, Flaherty is dragging the Tories down obviously, because with this Liberal infighting there's no reason why the Tories aren't way up in the polls. If Flaherty knew better, he'd shut up.

Edited March 31, 2008 by Pierre the Great

[Pierre the Great]

Breaking News:

The Tories like having homophobic MPs and Premiers

shocking...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/National/home

[JoeLassister]

Toronto Star reported that Maxime Bernier spent 22 573 for a fly to Laos !!!! The newspaper search and said he could have traveled comfortable for 7000$.

Keep going on Bernier and you'll be kicked in Québec !

[Zowpeb]

What, no one's talking about an allegedly doctored tape, presented by the Liberals, in the Cadman story?