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If Kotkaniemi teached us something, it's not to take too much from the results at this U18 tournament. Guessing the scouts go there to evaluate some specific skills and character aspect of players' game more than how they actually perform.

$8.5m for 7 years for a guy who doesn’t show up in more games than he does? No thanks. If he wasn’t French there wouldn’t Ben be a discussion about trading for him.

Im looking at the trade this way. (And yes i realize its all one trade, but this is just how i evaluate it). 1) 3rd overall for caufield. 2) mailloux and a pick in the 20s for Zegras. Part 1 i absolutely would not do.. give me the guy who has already shown signs of being a stud and is signed long term at fair value. Part 2) i would do but im hesitant as Zegras had an awful season, and there is a real chance hes just a flashy guy who gets 60 points and cant play without the puck. Id do but its not a slam dunk. I consider this somewher in between what we gave up to get dach and newhook. I think dach is much better than zegras. Zegras is better than Newhook but its not that big when you consider 2 way play. To me the loss in part 1 is bigger than the gain in part 2.

Right. You wouldn't pick Aatos Koivu because you expect him to be a clone of Saku. He is his own player, and he'll be picked on his own merits. The only significant thing you get from that relationship is that you might have a better idea of the player's attitude or mental processes, based on how well you know his family members. But that's just another data point, not anything more.

3-ish and 5-ish ... that's maybe 80% probability that the drafted player will play at least 100 games. Or 65% that both of them will play 100 games. Probability of two impact players is considerably lower. Mailloux-plus for 80% probability of 100+ NHL games? I would generally always take the prospect that has played at least a year since the draft, as the ceiling and floor are much more clear than for an 18yo.