Who made the right decision-Gainey or Kevin Lowe?

[BCHabnut]

Can't say Im happy about yesterday. I was hoping for something to happen.

The Islanders got Smyth for Robert Nilsson and picks. I can't stop thinking what Smyth could have done in Montreal. Even if it's just a rental I think the Islanders got him cheap. Compare it with Rivet and the San Jose trade.

Plekanec and a first round pick and maybe another throw-in prospect might have been enough? In my opinion Ryan Smyth would even be worth more to our team.

Im really trying to figure out what happened, but I guess time will tell. Did Bon try to get a boost or did he want to sell Souray but couldn't get what he asked for in return?

Or did he dump Rivet just to clear cap-space so he can resign Souray? And why did he claim Leighton without moving another goaltender? There's no doubt that Montreal has too many goaltenders that has the potential to be solid starters.

Cheap? A first rounder and 2 prospects for a grinder who has never had a point per game season? for 2 months? That's not cheap.

Don't get me wrong. I live in Alberta and Smitty is my favorite hockey player, but you have to ask yourself how long he can grind and take the beatings the way he does? I think Lowe got a lot considering he is UFA in a few months.

[hankhab]

I guess we could all talk about this all day long, but the truth is, who knows? My feelings are, if we could have gotten a real good young goal scorer for Souray (we really need one), then yes, we should have made the deal. But, if we were offered offensive prospects (we have lots of those) and draft picks (we have 2 first rounders), what would we have accomplished, really? Remember, the players the oilers aquired are not proven NHLers, they are prospects who have shown nothing yet. I would have loved for Gainey to have picked up an impact player, but if there was one being offered, I think he would have went for it. So, chill out, guys, even if we fail to make the playoffs, there is no need to hang Bob.

[OneSharpMarble]

Almost no player wants to go to Edmonton, and not just because it is a dumb, frozen, redneck city.

Watch your mouth, some of us come from that city and think it is a damn fine place.

When you actually know something about it then you can talk. The actions of a few individuals is no reason to insult the thousands that live there.

[bobby]

Sorry, I guess there is always "one sharp marble" in a city as "dumb as a bag of marbles"....

[Oleg Petrov]

What seems crazy to me about the way people are reacting to the Smyth trade vs. Souray non-trade is that nobody seems to want to compare the Smyth trade to the Rivet trade. Aside from the draft pick, Edmonton got garbage for trading away Smyth. Garbage. And as willing as I am to spot Josh Gorges as someone who can't crack the Habs' 6, the Habs got just as much from San Jose (minus a few spots in the draft order) for CRAIG RIVET (i.e. a guy who would have had trouble cracking the Habs' 6 from here to April) as the Oilers got for Ryan Smyth: a first round pick and some jetsam.

Now, some people on this board would have been happier if the Habs dished Souray to San Jose for Gorges and the pick than if they had sent Rivet. Why? Because then they wouldn't have felt that Souray's deadline value had been wasted. Forget the fact that the Habs' GM duped some hoser in San Jose into paying as much for a very kind and gentlemanly human being with limited talent as most other teams would have for Souray - forget that, because Souray is still here, and therefore a mystical trade for four lineup-ready power centres (that some "buyer" team is somehow keen on getting rid of), seven draft picks, a top-level goalie and four bags of magic beans didn't happen when it obviously could have.

If the Habs want to make the playoffs - which, contrary to the majority of those who write on this board and RDS forums, I believe to be something worth doing for its own sake even if you're squeaking in at 8th - then they could not be sellers. And if you have a shot at the playoffs, much less if you find yourselves in 7th at the deadline and are one hot week away from fourth place, you had better danged well want to make the playoffs or you might as well move to Kansas City.

It's Souray's opinion that the Habs as an organization are held in as high respect as any franchise in sports. I don't think that will determine whether or not he'll sign here this summer, but I think it's an important issue. The Habs lost little to no standing or goodwill by shipping Rivet, but Kevin Lowe absolutely sixed any sentimental respect held by players towards the Oilers by trading Smyth. That doesn't matter to every player, but it matters to some. I feel pretty confident that Kevin Lowe has stricken himself from the list of GMs Souray would be willing to sign a contract with, which, considering they're Souray's hometown team, can't be bad news for the Habs.

But by not shipping Souray - even if he walks in July - Gainey sends this message in the campaign to change the way Montreal is perceived by UFAs: if you sign here in July, you will not be on a team throwing in the towel the following February if they're only a point or two above the playoff cut. Who would want to sign for a team that would quit in 7th place? That has given Buffalo more trouble than any other team this season, but wants to fold on the off-chance it's Brodeur in the first round?

[smon]

I really can't take your point seriously if you feel that Robert Nilsson and Ryan O'Marra are "GARBAGE".

Come on.

I share the general sentiment of your post, but that is just way offbase.

[BCHabnut]

I really can't take your point seriously if you feel that Robert Nilsson and Ryan O'Marra are "GARBAGE".

Come on.

I share the general sentiment of your post, but that is just way offbase.

2 prospects and a 1st rounder for a 2 month rental is anything but garbage. I live in Alberta and I love Smitty. It broke my heart to see him leave, but as I said before, he has never had a point per game season.

He can't have too many more good seasons of getting beat up in front of the net either.

He has the heart of a lion. Which goes a long way, but this isn't Wayne freakin Gretzky!

[Oleg Petrov]

I really can't take your point seriously if you feel that Robert Nilsson and Ryan O'Marra are "GARBAGE".

I pushed it a little in O'Marra's case, but I'd be surprised if Nilsson isn't fighting for his spot in the lineup for the rest of his career. It wouldn't surprise me if Lowe legitimately wanted O'Marra, and only asked Snow to throw in Nilsson as a sentimental bone to the Edmonton fans (he is Kent Nilsson's son, after all). Time will tell with O'Marra, and I'm sure you're more in the know than I am on this kid. Hockeysfuture gives him a 7.0.

Whatever his eventual value, I think the damage is still done in Lowe's case, and not done in Gainey's case.

Edited February 28, 2007 by Oleg Petrov

[bobby]

What I have trouble understanding is how you see a late first round draft pick (probably in the 20s) in what is regarded as a weak draft, being of value, while two developing players who were both taken #15 overall in what were rerarded as stronger drafts, have none. One of those players, Nilsson, was an NHL regular as a 20 year old. O'Marra was a two time WJC performer I think. Whatever you think of their long term prospects, the chances of the draft pick turning out as good as either of them are very slim.

[Wamsley01]

Not getting Smyth, who cares.

Not trading Souray is a more serious issue. IF Bob re-signs him, then it was a good move, and consistent with the overall commitment to rebuilding. As I said in another thread, if every season you trade away every quality UFA on your roster, you're not rebuilding, you're perpetually treading water. Rebuilding is consistent with re-signing quality, relatively young UFAs and may even require it.

Look at it this way. We developed Souray. Two seasons ago, he broke out. But not until this year has he found true consistency in his game and become a true leader in the room. He's fully matured as a hockey player. So just as we reap the rewards of developing him, we dump him? That's NOT rebuilding.

Still, if we lose Souray at year's end, then this WAS a stupid move. We won't be able to assess until then.

Yes, we developed him and we were patient with him as he matured and you do not want to lose players like that. But he is having a career season. He is 3 goals away from breaking an NHL record for goals by a defenseman!!!!!!! He will not repeat this again next year! Would you pay Souray 5 Million a year for this production every year? Maybe, but his defensive shortcomings suggest otherwise.

Look at McCabe last season. 68 points in 73 games (45 PP points) in a contract year. Career season. This season 46 points in 64 games (26 PP points). The only difference in his game being that the scouting reports have taken away the point shot and he has 20 less PP points. Sound familiar?

In the New NHL it is suicide to pay somebody more than they are producing. In order for Souray to be a smart signing at 5 million a year he needs to produce at the same pace as this year for the duration of the contract!! We already have Kovalev and Koivu who do not produce at the rate they are paid. And we wonder why we go through the same motions every year???

If he does not replicate 2006, we will be making a big Cap mistake. It is not easy being a GM and the good ones like Lameirello cut bait on guys like Guerin/Holik when he feels there demands outweigh their worth.

The margin of error in the new NHL is razor thin. Sheldon's new contract is screaming "ALBATROSS" and some of us think this is what he will give us every year.

Did everybody forget about a guy named Jose Theodore?

Think about the next 5 years not the next 20 games. The jury is out on this season and it says that there wil be no parade on St. Catherines this year. So why think short term.

We have become the Montreal Maple Leafs.

Edited February 28, 2007 by Wamsley01

[bobby]

But the last time there was a parade on St Catherines St. was 14 years ago. Getting a draft pick that will be spent on a player who is 17 years old at the moment isn't likely to benefit the team for another 5 or 6 years, if ever. Do you want a 20+ year gap between championships?

Edited February 28, 2007 by bobby

[Peter Puck]

I don't think the Smyth & Souray situations are comparable.

The Oilers had reached an impasse with Smyth and so they had no real choice. They knew he was leaving and they knew they weren't going to make the playoffs. So they traded him. If they made a mistake (and I am not sure they did) it was by not shopping him around enough. They might have been able to get more (and they might not).

Montreal has a very realistic chance to make the playoffs. Souray greatly increases our chances. Who knows whether he will resign. Gainey certainly knows more about that than we do. I think that trading him yesterday would have pretty much guaranteed he wouldn't resign with us. The question is, what could we have got for him versus how likely is he to resign with us this summer. Gainey is in a much better position to answer since he has much more information about both sides of the proposition.

To me, a more interesting question is: Did the Islanders make a mistake. They gave up a lot for a rental.

Again, Snow may know more about whether he can resign Smyth but he probably doesn't know a lot more than we do about that. If they resign him it is probably a good deal for the Islanders; otherwise it may be remembered as a huge blunder.

[OneSharpMarble]

So we just agreed to be a mediocre team next season in the hopes we get an early round exit in the playoffs this season?

Keep those standards high boys!

[bobby]

I just went back and checked the draft of 5 years ago (2002). Of the 15 players taken in the last half of the first round, only 6 are even playing in the NHL at the present time. Daniel Paille, Boyd Gordon, Ben Eager, Alexander Steen, Cam Ward, and Jim Slater.

Based on that, if a team gets a second half pick in the 2007 draft, there is about a 40% chance that the guy will be on the team in 2012. If he is, the best he can be is a second or third line centre (Steen, Slater), a fourth line checking winger (Paille, Eager, Gordon), or a marginal NHL starting goaltender (Ward).

Josh Gorges who wasn't even drafted in the 2002 draft, is as valuable as most of the players on that list, never mind all the ones who didn't make it. Another way of looking at it is that if you traded Souray to a top team for 3 first round picks, 5 years after they were drafted 1 would be completely out of the organization with no chance of ever making the NHL, one would be stuck in the minors, and 1 would be a marginal NHL player.

[bobby]

You have to look at the positive aspect of what Gainey did (or didn't) do at the deadline. He managed to pick up two young NHL players and a first round draft pick without sacrificing his top asset. Montreal now has 5 picks in the first three rounds of the 2007 draft along with a 22 year old prospect they didn't have a week ago. He definitely has improved the future, and in the process only gave up an impending free agent who wasn't even gauranteed regular playing time when he returned from the injury list.

[OneSharpMarble]

I just went back and checked the draft of 5 years ago (2002). Of the 15 players taken in the last half of the first round, only 6 are even playing in the NHL at the present time. Daniel Paille, Boyd Gordon, Ben Eager, Alexander Steen, Cam Ward, and Jim Slater.

Based on that, if a team gets a second half pick in the 2007 draft, there is about a 40% chance that the guy will be on the team in 2012. If he is, the best he can be is a second or third line centre (Steen, Slater), a fourth line checking winger (Paille, Eager, Gordon), or a marginal NHL starting goaltender (Ward).

Josh Gorges who wasn't even drafted in the 2002 draft, is as valuable as most of the players on that list, never mind all the ones who didn't make it. Another way of looking at it is that if you traded Souray to a top team for 3 first round picks, 5 years after they were drafted 1 would be completely out of the organization with no chance of ever making the NHL, one would be stuck in the minors, and 1 would be a marginal NHL player.

We could have traded for a semi established player for next season, we wouldn't need to get all picks. We already have 2 worthless 1st round picks in a weak draft.

Face it Gainey pooched us.

[Strummerman]

Kevin Lowe squeezed everything out of his players last year when they went to the finals. He was a buyer last year when he got Roloson and it worked. Lowe was realistic this year the Oilers are going nowhere. I think Smyth sealed his fate with that remark a day ago that finally they decided to negotiate. Lowe took that as a slap in the face. He made a good move getting 3 players for a rental. Smyth was probably sick and tired of being a nobody in a hick town like Edmonton. He will show his talent in some big market soon. I doubt the Islanders will sign him next year.

Gainey was lost as to whether he was a buyer or seller and he turned out to be neutered.

Edited February 28, 2007 by Strummerman

[smon]

You have to look at the positive aspect of what Gainey did (or didn't) do at the deadline. He managed to pick up two young NHL players and a first round draft pick without sacrificing his top asset. Montreal now has 5 picks in the first three rounds of the 2007 draft along with a 22 year old prospect they didn't have a week ago. He definitely has improved the future, and in the process only gave up an impending free agent who wasn't even gauranteed regular playing time when he returned from the injury list.

Right on, my man.

Although I do feel that Gainey should have made a decision on Souray, I still agree that he did a good job with the Rivet trade, anyway.

[Wamsley01]

It does not matter if they take 5 years. An asset is an asset.

Do you think that when the Sharks traded Nolan in 2003 that they figured that that first rounder means essentially nothing. That asset, pick number 16 his name is Steve Bernier.

The fact is that the more picks you have the more chances you have to hit the jackpot. 1 pick in 30 gives you a 3% chance to get it right. 3 in 30 gives you a 10% chance. Tons of great players get drafted after the top 10-15.

Edited March 1, 2007 by Wamsley01

[OneSharpMarble]

You have to look at the positive aspect of what Gainey did (or didn't) do at the deadline. He managed to pick up two young NHL players and a first round draft pick without sacrificing his top asset. Montreal now has 5 picks in the first three rounds of the 2007 draft along with a 22 year old prospect they didn't have a week ago. He definitely has improved the future, and in the process only gave up an impending free agent who wasn't even gauranteed regular playing time when he returned from the injury list.

Huzzah we have 5 picks in a weak draft, none of them in the top 10, we will get players that will probably not even come close to making the team for 3-4 years. It's not like we don't have enough prospects as it is!

We also have some prospect defensman that no one has heard about and is probably a 3rd pairing defensman at best. Oh lets not forget the schrewd acquisition of Leighton, he will surely save this team.

[smon]

Ah, but even a chance at getting a decent player out an impending UFA like Rivet is fair enough.

And weren't you suggesting that Gainey move Souray? The "sweet deal" he would have gotten would have been based surely on picks for this year's weak draft. None of them would have been top 10. And a whole bunch of prospects, too, which you suggest we have enough of.

[bobby]

We could have traded for a semi established player for next season, we wouldn't need to get all picks. We already have 2 worthless 1st round picks in a weak draft.

Face it Gainey pooched us.

None of the playoff teams wants to trade even a "semi-established" player at this point of the season, though. Unless you mean fourth line forwards or third pairing defensemen. A player like Josh Gorges is about as "semi established" as any of the contending teams wants to give up this late in the season. There is no point trading a regular player out of a lineup that is doing well, for an equivalent regular in someone else's lineup that isn't doing as well. The whole point of "buyers" and "sellers" is that the buyers pay with young minor league or junior prospects and the sellers give established top notch veterans in return. The fact that Souray is so close to being an UFA makes it almost impossible to trade him for an established player. Unless it was one in the same position, but what would be the point of trading Souray for Smyth, as a for instance?

[OneSharpMarble]

Ah, but even a chance at getting a decent player out an impending UFA like Rivet is fair enough.

And weren't you suggesting that Gainey move Souray? The "sweet deal" he would have gotten would have been based surely on picks for this year's weak draft. None of them would have been top 10. And a whole bunch of prospects, too, which you suggest we have enough of.

The Rivet trade was fine if it had been a setup trade. Keep Gorges and package souray, the 1st and possibly someone else (kovalev I wish) and get a couple high end prospects that are in their rookie year or second. That way we get hope for next season. Sign a vet in the offseason and we would be set!

Right now we are building for 4 years away with an abundance of picks? Havn't we been rebuilding for the last 4 years? Who the hell rebuilds for 8 years?????

[kenadian]

There's also a chance to use a few of these pick to do a deal BEFORE/DURING the upcoming enrty draft....

It's not like the deadline was the last chance to make deals........(well for this season yes, but there's next year)

[OneSharpMarble]

None of the playoff teams wants to trade even a "semi-established" player at this point of the season, though. Unless you mean fourth line forwards or third pairing defensemen. A player like Josh Gorges is about as "semi established" as any of the contending teams wants to give up this late in the season. There is no point trading a regular player out of a lineup that is doing well, for an equivalent regular in someone else's lineup that isn't doing as well. The whole point of "buyers" and "sellers" is that the buyers pay with young minor league or junior prospects and the sellers give established top notch veterans in return. The fact that Souray is so close to being an UFA makes it almost impossible to trade him for an established player. Unless it was one in the same position, but what would be the point of trading Souray for Smyth, as a for instance?

How did Philly get Coburn then? The guy was chosen ahead of Phaneuf and is highly rated. Are you saying Zhitnik is better than Souray?! The deals were there and Gainey sat on his hands. Obviously you don't know what teams were willing to give up.

Any way you look at it Gainey messed up.

Kenadian: Souray was the gold we had to trade, now hes gone.

Edited March 1, 2007 by OneSharpMarble