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2014-15 Scoring Predictions


dlbalr

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I think having Markov/Emelin/Gorges made the team too slow.

I still think the primary reason to get Gilbert over Josh Gorges was to correct our glut of left-hand shooting defensemen, and getting to move Emelin over to the side he's more comfortable playing on.

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there are a number of reasons why i'm anxious to get the pre-season started. the subtractions, the additions, retaining weaver, moving emelin back to his strong side, the fact that we've got a young team that's only gonna get better, rookie(s) possibly cracking the lineup and forcing mb's hand, and not to mention that we're on the cusp of becoming perrennial contenders for the Stanley cup! bring on the pre-season, dammit!

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@ICEWATER77:

Everything I've read calls him a two-way player, in addition to skilled offense. I also believe that people keep putting him with Plekanec for a couple of other reasons: (1) Despite his growing role as a shut-down checking forward, Plekanec is the second most gifted offensive center on the team (behind Desharnais), and Sekac would have more opportunity to score there than with Eller or Malhotra (that may change if they move Galchenyuk to Centre.) (2) The Czech connection. There's this unfounded and yet compelling gut feeling that sticking two guys from the same home town of Kladno, Czech Republic together on the same line will create some special chemistry.

makes sense..galchenyuk looked pretty good with pleks this spring too though. don't he and sekac both play lw?

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I still think the primary reason to get Gilbert over Josh Gorges was to correct our glut of left-hand shooting defensemen, and getting to move Emelin over to the side he's more comfortable playing on.

That, and Gorges' awful contract.

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I agree that it was important to even out the RH and LH defense, but I think better reasons to replace Gorges with Gilbert was #1, that salary....

Also, Gilbert has some offensive skill and can play PP, Josh didn't, and should never play PP, Gilbert can skate, Josh couldn't, Gilbert can make a pass or skate the puck up, Josh, not so much. Emelin and Weaver are both decent shot blockers, so I for one, won't miss Gorges a whole lot....

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my grandmother has more jam than Kaberle did.

Gorges seems to be getting a lot of grief and I think quite underrated for what he brought every game.

Not that he wasn't overpaid a bit and I do like having more LH-RH balance, which allows Emelin to get back to natural side.

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I agree that it was important to even out the RH and LH defense, but I think better reasons to replace Gorges with Gilbert was #1, that salary....

Also, Gilbert has some offensive skill and can play PP, Josh didn't, and should never play PP, Gilbert can skate, Josh couldn't, Gilbert can make a pass or skate the puck up, Josh, not so much. Emelin and Weaver are both decent shot blockers, so I for one, won't miss Gorges a whole lot....

Except that Josh could skate (rather quickly...seriously, the only actual slow skater on the team last year was Murray...even Moen and Prust were about average, and Gorges could outskate all of them), could make a pass to get out of the zone, or skate it out. His only liability was on offense. He's far better than most people on this board state. He was a great asset to the team.

Was his contract too expensive? Probably. However, that's not unusual for a competent top 4 UFA-eligible defenseman. I'd take Gorges at 4 million before I'd take Phaneuf at 7. (I'd put their actual value more at 3 for Gorges and 4-5 for Phaneuf.)

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Guest Stogey24

Except that Josh could skate (rather quickly...seriously, the only actual slow skater on the team last year was Murray...even Moen and Prust were about average, and Gorges could outskate all of them), could make a pass to get out of the zone, or skate it out. His only liability was on offense. He's far better than most people on this board state. He was a great asset to the team.

Was his contract too expensive? Probably. However, that's not unusual for a competent top 4 UFA-eligible defenseman. I'd take Gorges at 4 million before I'd take Phaneuf at 7. (I'd put their actual value more at 3 for Gorges and 4-5 for Phaneuf.)

Gorges was an ankle skater though. Gilbert had 28pts on seriously embarrassing Florida team. I'm pretty excited to see what he can do this year.
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Gorges was an ankle skater though. Gilbert had 28pts on seriously embarrassing Florida team. I'm pretty excited to see what he can do this year.

Oh, agreed. Some more offense on D is great. I haven't criticized moving Gorges to sign Gilbert. I think that there were good hockey reasons to do so. I just think there's a definite lack of appreciation for how much Gorges brought to this team and did for it. I suspect the team is now improved, but it's not because losing Gorges was no loss. it's because we got back more than we lost (moving D-men to their best sides, grabbing a more offensive D-man, and freeing up salary room in the process.)

Edit: The optimistic side of me agrees that Gilbert put up good numbers on a crappy team, and therefore should put up better numbers on a better team. The pessimistic side of me says that Gilbert had an ATOI of about 21 minutes a game in florida, because he was one of the two best D-men they had. In Montreal, that drops about 5 minutes a game, and his production may drop accordingly.

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Guest Stogey24

Oh, agreed. Some more offense on D is great. I haven't criticized moving Gorges to sign Gilbert. I think that there were good hockey reasons to do so. I just think there's a definite lack of appreciation for how much Gorges brought to this team and did for it. I suspect the team is now improved, but it's not because losing Gorges was no loss. it's because we got back more than we lost (moving D-men to their best sides, grabbing a more offensive D-man, and freeing up salary room in the process.)

Edit: The optimistic side of me agrees that Gilbert put up good numbers on a crappy team, and therefore should put up better numbers on a better team. The pessimistic side of me says that Gilbert had an ATOI of about 21 minutes a game in florida, because he was one of the two best D-men they had. In Montreal, that drops about 5 minutes a game, and his production may drop accordingly.

Yeah, his TOI will drop, but he's still be playing top four minutes, with second PP time. Its hard to say though, he did really struggle in Minni.
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Its hard to say though, he did really struggle in Minni.

Now, for the Optimism: Minni's the only place he struggled - and he still put up 13 points over 43 games in the lockout shortened year. He's a career 25 points a season defenseman, fairly consistently, with occasional bouts of brilliance (Edmonton in 2009 he got 45 points. He's broken 30 points three times in 7 full seasons, and even counting his time in Minnesota (prorating 2013 over a full season), has never had less than 22 points in a season. His career average over 7 seasons is 32 points per 82 games. That looks fairly reliable. In fact, it's better than Lars Eller's 29 points per 82 games played over his somewhat shorter career. But Gilbert is a defenseman.

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is anyone else hoping, no, praying, that gilbert isn't the next tomas kaberle? similar skill set, hopefully more jam

Tom Gilbert is a good hockey player. I saw him play down in Sunrise last year for 10-15 games. He's nothing spectacular, but if you can get a number 4 defensemen at that price, it's a good deal. He's good for 25-40 points and he can eat some minutes. Emelin and Gorges in the top four is a non-starter. You can't have two defensemen playing that many minutes that have no offensive ability.

What did Gorges do anyways? He wasn't physical, he was a below average puck mover, he didn't get any points...

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Gorges blocked shots and struggled mightily to get the puck in his own zone and get it out, even made it hard for Subban to get it out, that's what Gorges did lately....

I liked him, don't get me wrong, but just couldn't wait till the day he went the way of Rivet....

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that about sums him up..and I for one am sick of our goalies being rammed/collided/whacked..whether or not tom gilbert deter any of it remains to be seen..but lets face it, jg had to go.

Gilbert is a long haired kid from the NCAA. He's more likely to drive around in a van and solve mysteries than clear the crease.

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While I approve of getting Tinordi into the lineup, note that offensively - replacing JG or Frankie Boo on the powerplay with either Weaver or Tinordi is not an improvement.

Right now, we've got three offensive defensemen who can contribute to the powerplay, with Subban, Markov, and Gilbert. Emelin, Weaver, or Tinordi don't add much there. Beaulieu might, if he's ready. I suspect all he'll really add to our powerplay right now is SHG against.

We're still better off on the PP than last year, when we only had Subban and Markov contributing.

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Subban and Emelin will be clearing the crease with extreme prejudice, making full use of Newton's Third Law of Motion. Ideally, Tinordi is also ready to do the same.

Neither Subban nor Emelin moves anyone from in front of net, nor intimidates anyone, who are you kidding?

Gorges was 9th in NHL in PK time, best shot blocker for past several years, low maintenance player and will be missed for sure.

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Yeah, his TOI will drop, but he's still be playing top four minutes, with second PP time. Its hard to say though, he did really struggle in Minni.

Will it though? Subban will once again take around 25 while Markov should drop to around 22. The bottom pairing will be 15 minute guys at best (Weaver plus Beaulieu/Tinordi), leaving 43 minutes for Emelin and Gilbert to split. If those get split somewhat evenly (and they probably will be fairly close in ATOI), Gilbert's looking at seeing minutes around what he had last year. Even if Markov plays minutes similar to last season, Gilbert would only probably drop to the high 19/low 20 minute range.

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I could honestly see the team trying to break up Markov/Subban so the PP1 and PP2 is better spread. Or at least, do something where Markov and Subban play the first pairing and then Gilbert comes out to relieve whichever one is tired. Spread it out between the three unless Beaulieu is playing, which in that case they'll do a PP1/PP2 and separate Markov and Subban entirely.

Weaver and Emelin will play SH of course, but I'm not sure about other pair. I don't know if I like Markov playing 2:30 per game again, or increasing Subban's minutes. Unfortunately, Gilbert ain't much for shorthanded minutes himself.

Our Top 7 is interesting really.

Subban, Gilbert and Beaulieu: PP, ES

Emelin, Weaver and Tinordi, SH, ES

Markov: PP, ES, SH

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