Annual Habs Top Shelf Prospect Report

[Commandant]

He wasn't even the top pairing in St. Johns... never mind being a top defensive zone player in the entire AHL.

I'm actually convinced that Ethan has never actually watched these guys play. The judgments are just so off.

As Brian says, he wasn't bad... but the hyperbole, its over the top.

[Robert Ethan]

Lernout would have had a near identical rookie pro season to Jarred Tinordi if he'd stayed healthy for a few more NHL games, and he's nearly a year younger at the same career point. He has clearly developed much more than Scherbak since the 2014 draft. Nik had virtually the same numbers his post draft season in the WHL on a better team. Lernout nearly doubled his offensive numbers from his draft year. Sherbak had an awful season in the AHL, while Brett was being used in key defensive situations late in the year and got the callup to play in April. I don't think there's much question that McCarron and Lernout were the best long term prospect there last season. I don't include De La Rose and Andrighetto because I don't think either qualify as NHL rookies any longer. The fact that the Habs didn't bother to resign Ellis or Dietz shows they're pretty high on Lernout. I doubt the board "experts" here would have rated Brett higher than either of those two if they were still in the organization.

I don't watch a lot of AHL hockey, but from what I've seen of Lernout he looks like an above average skater, surprisingly smooth for his size, seems to have a good selection of point shots, and has more than proven his toughness. He was outstanding in the athletic testing at the 2014 Combine, and seems like a very bright, grounded kid from the interviews I've seen. What's not to like?

Edited August 8, 2016 by ethan raphael

[Commandant]

I don't think the fact they let go Ellis and Dietz has anything to do with Lernout and has everything to do with Ellis and Dietz...

I'm pretty sure the organization is aware that they are allowed to keep more than one prospect defenceman if they like the guy. So the idea that they let go of Ellis and Dietz is a reflection that they don't like them... not a reflection that one single prospect is now the second coming.

Oh and while we are on the Dietz/Ellis thing... the organization also signed Tom Parisi, Philip Samuelsson, and Zach Redmond over the last couple months, along with drafting 4 defencemen in the draft. Using your Dietz/ellis logic, surely this influx of D means that they hate Lernout right? Oh wait actually it doesn't because teams normally have more than one prospect on the blue line. so whether they sign other prospects or release others, it really doesn't say a lot about Lernout either way.

On top of that, the fact he was used in big situations at the end of the year (when the organization ran out of defencemen due to injury) or that he was called up (as the 15th defenceman the organization used at the NHL level, and under the emergency call up rules)... tells us nothing about what the organization thinks of him. Unless you think the organization also once had high hopes for Oliver Michaud a goalie they signed on an emergency basis and put in the NHL for 1 period as an 20 year old... he was never heard from again.

[dlbalr]

Lernout would have had a near identical rookie pro season to Jarred Tinordi if he'd stayed healthy for a few more NHL games, and he's nearly a year younger at the same career point. He has clearly developed much more than Scherbak since the 2014 draft. Nik had virtually the same numbers his post draft season in the WHL on a better team. Lernout nearly doubled his offensive numbers from his draft year. Sherbak had an awful season in the AHL, while Brett was being used in key defensive situations late in the year and got the callup to play in April. I don't think there's much question that McCarron and Lernout were the best long term prospect there last season. I don't include De La Rose and Andrighetto because I don't think either qualify as NHL rookies any longer. The fact that the Habs didn't bother to resign Ellis or Dietz shows they're pretty high on Lernout. I doubt the board "experts" here would have rated Brett higher than either of those two if they were still in the organization.

I don't watch a lot of AHL hockey, but from what I've seen of Lernout he looks like an above average skater, surprisingly smooth for his size, seems to have a good selection of point shots, and has more than proven his toughness. He was outstanding in the athletic testing at the 2014 Combine, and seems like a very bright, grounded kid from the interviews I've seen. What's not to like?

I don't think we want to be comparing Lernout to Tinordi in any sort of positive way. Here's hoping he pans out better than Tinordi has thus far.

Even if Lernout has developed better than Scherbak thus far since being drafted, that doesn't mean Lernout should be ranked ahead of him. Prospect rankings are largely based on players' ceilings. Recent seasons can help form the rankings but the projections down the road are more of the primary factor.

I'm a Lernout fan and as you note, there is lots to like but I don't see a top pairing prospect in him. Quite frankly, I don't really see him being a second pairing player although I'm not going to rule that out entirely either at this stage. To me, he's a third pairing potential type of player as I don't anticipate him being particularly strong offensively at the pro level. He has had one good offensive year out of the last four - is the good one the outlier or the sign of things to come? I suspect the former rather than the latter, particularly after watching him last year.

Scherbak is still a top six forward prospect in my view. It was obvious he was going to struggle last year, I was writing about tempering expectations for him last summer. The fact that he did struggle isn't all that concerning at this stage. (If he has another bad season in 2016-17, then I might be a bit more concerned.) When ranking prospects, I'm going to slot in the guy I think has top six forward potential ahead of a third pairing defenceman, even if the forward is coming off of a down year as Scherbak is.

Yes, Lernout was called up for a game. Was that based on merit though, or the fact that they had so many injuries? They called up just about everyone else before Lernout so I'm not confident suggesting that it was merit based - injuries were the reason why. And as for him getting into key situations with the IceCaps late last year, was that merit based or because the players ahead of him on their depth chart were all in Montreal after the first wave of injuries? As someone who followed the team all year, his promotion up the depth chart came after players were recalled, not before.

As for not ranking Lernout ahead of Ellis/Dietz? Here are my rankings from last year:

Lernout: 13th http://www.habsworld.net/2015/10/2015-hw-prospect-rankings-11-15/ (You'll note there are lots of positives in my write up about him)

Dietz: 17th http://www.habsworld.net/2015/09/2015-hw-prospect-rankings-16-20/

Ellis: 33rd http://www.habsworld.net/2015/09/2015-hw-prospect-rankings-31-36/

So yeah, I think I'd have had Lernout ranked higher than those two again this year. I imagine Lernout will be similarly ranked again come next month when I do the rankings. If Ellis was still around, he'd have been in the 20's, Dietz likely in the late teens again as a waiver eligible player on the fringe. (For what it's worth, I'd have kept Dietz around for another year personally, I thought he handled himself pretty well in his recall.)

If you acknowledge that you haven't watched much AHL hockey, I don't think you can objectively state with any sort of conclusiveness that McCarron and Lernout are the best long-term prospects from St. John's last season. It's one thing to say it's your opinion but you can't turn around and say that there's not much question that those two are the best as you've admitted to not really watching them. Those that have are probably going to have a difference of opinion and at this stage, that's all your thoughts and my ramblings in this post are - opinions. Nothing can be stated definitively here so it can't be stated that those two are without question the best long-term prospects from the IceCaps last season.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

I wonder if Shea Weber knows who Brett Lernout is?

[DON]

I wonder if Shea Weber knows who Brett Lernout is?

.005% chance he does.

[Robert Ethan]

The defensemen the Habs signed this year are all about the same age as Ellis and Dietz were. No longer prospects really, more depth guys. The defensemen they drafted were all left shooting, I believe, so they aren't in direct competition with Lernout and Juulsen. More to balance out the prospect chart.

To give some perspective, Lernout is the only other defenseman beside Aaron Eckblad and a couple of overage Euros to make it to the NHL from the 2014 draft. I think he might be the only player who wasn't overage to make it of anyone drafted outside the top half of the first round.

[Robert Ethan]

What does Shea Weber knowing Lernout have to do with anything? He probably doesn't know half the players who'll be in camp this fall, but I'm sure he will get to know them soon enough.

[DON]

The defensemen the Habs signed this year are all about the same age as Ellis and Dietz were. No longer prospects really, more depth guys. The defensemen they drafted were all left shooting, I believe, so they aren't in direct competition with Lernout and Juulsen. More to balance out the prospect chart.

To give some perspective, Lernout is the only other defenseman beside Aaron Eckblad and a couple of overage Euros to make it to the NHL from the 2014 draft. I think he might be the only player who wasn't overage to make it of anyone drafted outside the top half of the first round.

Make it to the NHL? Cart before horse I would say, played one part game and got injured, dosent quite make him a NHL regular.

[DON]

What does Shea Weber knowing Lernout have to do with anything? He probably doesn't know half the players who'll be in camp this fall, but I'm sure he will get to know them soon enough.

It was just a joke Bud, you know that and not sure NHL players and minor league prospects spend much time hanging out, unless they train together in off-season.

[dlbalr]

To give some perspective, Lernout is the only other defenseman beside Aaron Eckblad and a couple of overage Euros to make it to the NHL from the 2014 draft. I think he might be the only player who wasn't overage to make it of anyone drafted outside the top half of the first round.

And why was he in the NHL for that one game? He was an injury call-up after a bunch of regulars got hurt and after they called up most of the other IceCaps. So lumping him in with someone like Ekblad is rather disingenuous. He hasn't made it to the NHL - for that matter, I wouldn't say the overage Euros that you referenced (Nikita Tryamkin and Rinat Valiev) have really made it either. One was promised NHL ice time as an enticement for signing, the other was, you guessed it, an injury call-up after they burned through a bunch of other call-ups.

If the Habs had a bunch of injuries up front last year and had to call up Scherbak for a game, would you say he 'made' the NHL?

[Robert Ethan]

If a guy plays a game in the NHL he "made it to the NHL". If they had him in the stands as an eighth defenseman, or dressed him but didn't play him then I guess it would be arguable, but as far as Lernout is concerned, he made it to the NHL. He's far outperformed his draft status so far, his teammate in junior Honka was taken in the top half of the first round and has two AHL seasons already but hasn't made it to the NHL. Hayden Fleury who was drafted top 10 that year had fewer points last season in WHL than Lernout did the previous year on a poorer team, and Brett is much more physical player than Fleury.

Edited August 9, 2016 by ethan raphael

[dlbalr]

So because the Habs had a bunch of injuries that forced them to call up just about everyone on defence, he's 'far outperformed' his draft status? And because Honka has the misfortune of playing for a team that has good defensive depth and was relatively injury free, Lernout has done better since being drafted despite Honka's AHL numbers being beyond significantly better? I think you're putting way too much stock in a single NHL game. By that logic, would you have Joel Hanley highly rated on a prospect ranking as well?

[Robert Ethan]

Lernout played a full season as an AHL regular before he got the callup, and was considered one of the team's most trustworthy blueliners in his own end. That is impressive in itself, given his age. Sherbak was -26 in half a season of sporadic play on the same team. The first thing a prospect has to establish is defensive responsibility before they can be expected to advance a level. To prove that at least they won't hurt the team on the ice. Lernout has done that, Sherbak has not.

[DON]

If a guy plays a game in the NHL he "made it to the NHL".

Semantics. God knows many want him to be able to make 'the jump', but that is highly unlikely to be vs Leafs in mid-October, given the glut of d-man seemingly ahead of him at the moment + Sergachev may squeeze in there also.

I just hope Lernout can work up to top pairing minutes, defend well, avoid fighting and blast home a few PPGs, this year in Nfld.

(He has been a quite slim 6'4" and hopefully he is hitting gym hard, can gain some strength and as always work on foot speed this summer

[Robert Ethan]

Without the knee injury I think he might have had a shot at earning a spot in Montreal, but I don't think he's even skating yet, so he definitely won't be full go until probably half way through the coming season. But as a long term prospect I have him in the top five in the organization for sure at this point. All I was trying to say off the top.

[Commandant]

He doesn't get it... he was the 15th defenceman used by the team and the team literally had to use a clause in the NHL rules of "emergency call-up" just to be able to use him. It says absolutely zilch about his status or potential as a prospect.

Any rational person would understand this.

Its pretty clear we aren't dealing with a rational person.

The idea that he's a top 5 prospect in the organization because of this emergency call-up is so very, very laughable.

[Robert Ethan]

Yeah, the ONLY reason I gave over 10 or so posts about Lernout as to why I think he's a good prospect was the fact that he was called up at the end of the season. Good reading skills, great comprehension.

[DON]

Without the knee injury I think he might have had a shot at earning a spot in Montreal, but I don't think he's even skating yet, so he definitely won't be full go until probably half way through the coming season. But as a long term prospect I have him in the top five in the organization for sure at this point. All I was trying to say off the top.

Umm top five, nah don't thinks so

Reway, Lehkonen, McCarron, Bitten, Scherback, Hudon, Carr, Andrighetto, Juulsen, Sergachev, even maybe the big Swede d-man (who they said looked good, but maybe just his size made him stand out at development camp?)

[Robert Ethan]

Everyone has an opinion. That's what DISCUSSION boards are for. I won't abuse or ridicule you for yours.

[Guest Stogey24]

Who's the swede?

[Commandant]

http://forums.wrestlezone.com/showthread.php?t=130487

I, personally, blame our "let's make everyone feel good" society, teaching this outrageous and grossly inaccurate myth that just because you state something is an opinion, it cannot be wrong. When did this happen? When did we give people carte blanche to say the stupidest things possible and disguise it as their opinion and make them think it's okay to be stupid? I don't get it.

OPINIONS CAN BE WRONG!

If you don't believe this, then YOU are wrong. Opinions most certainly can be wrong, especially when they are based on incredibly inaccurate facts and misunderstandings. The real world shouldn't be about making everyone feel good about themselves, it SHOULD be about getting people to learn from their mistakes, not revel in them. Allow me a few examples.


Example #1:
Let's say you make the comment, "In my opinion, Jury Duty starring Pauly Shore is a better movie than Citizen Kane", then you would be wrong. You may LIKE Jury Duty better than Citizen Kane, but it's not a better movie, nor will it ever be a better movie. In this case, your opinion would be wrong.

Example #2:

Let's say you make the comment, "In my opinion, Mario Mendoza was a better all-around hitter than Ted Williams". You would again wrong. Mario Mendoza is famous for the "Mendoza Line", a term in baseball which refers to a batting average of .200, a mark Mendoza hovered around consistently. Ted Williams, on the other hand, is probably most famous as the last MLB hitter to hit for a .400 average, which is more than double the Mendoza line. Throw in the fact Williams has better stats in every major batting category, and the OPINION Mario Mendoza is a better hitter is absurd, and thus, wrong.


I could go on, but if you don't get it by now, you never will. So where did this idea which states opinions cannot be wrong come from? Why do so many people cling to the ideal they can say any stupid thing they want, as long as they cloak it with the claim it is their opinion? Or, finally, if you believe an opinion cannot be wrong, please justify your position.

[Commandant]

Umm top five, nah don't thinks so

Reway, Lehkonen, McCarron, Bitten, Scherback, Hudon, Carr, Andrighetto, Juulsen, Sergachev, even maybe the big Swede d-man (who they said looked good, but maybe just his size made him stand out at development camp?)

Its a little early to include Arvidsson in that group... he was still a seventh round pick.... but no issue with the rest being ahead of Lernout.

[Robert Ethan]

I've given my reasons why I think Lernout deserves to be ranked ahead of Scherbak, no one has offered reasons why he shouldn't. Other than the fact that Scherbak was drafted higher a couple years ago. But looking over the history of Canadiens drafts, the first player they took has turned out to be the best less than half the time, and most of those cases were when the first pick was high in the draft.

Edited August 9, 2016 by ethan raphael

[DON]

I've given my reasons why I think Lernout deserves to be ranked ahead of Scherbak, no one has offered reasons why he shouldn't. Other than the fact that Scherbak was drafted higher a couple years ago. But looking over the history of Canadiens drafts, the first player they took has turned out to be the best less than half the time, and most of those cases were when the first pick was high in the draft.

But...Scherbak, man the kids has a sweet set of mitts on him and gotta say is 100% better chance of him being a "impact" NHLer (top 4 d-man/top six player) than Lernout.