MIGHT is doing a lot of work here. Like CC has, when you have too many if this happens and if that happens we can make the playoffs, you aren't likely to make the playoffs.
The reality is that we are a bottom five team in regulation wins, there is lots of work to do to improve that. One goal games can go either way, and we see teams with great records in close games have poor records in future years and vice versa.
The goal is to be a team that can win enough games comfortably, that when you add in the close games, we have enough points to make the playoffs and we aren't there yet.
Looking at the analytics we are also not there yet in xG% to be a consistently good team.
We are getting closer, but next year seems a bridge too far without a significant acquisition this offseason.