tomh009

This season, even with McDavid and Draisatl, they’ve scored fewer goals than the Habs.

Even in a stock portfolio, you should generally ignore what your cost was on a particular stock (although that may impact capital gains taxes, which are not a consideration for NHL player management). You should not be selling a stock you own because you have unrealized gains (ie it's worth more than you paid for it) or because you have unrealized losses (it's gone down since you bought it): you should be selling the stocks that are not going to be profitable for you, and keeping the ones that will be profitable. This could mean either that they are expected to go up (e.g. player trade value is expected to increase) or that they will pay a dividend etc while you keep them (e.g. the players will produce for the team while you keep them). The point is that the acquisition cost has little significance, whether you are managing a stock portfolio or an NHL team.

That's a big if. 10 points doesn't sound like much, but they only have a grand total of 11 points out of their 18 games so far. I don't know whether there will be a deal, but my personal view is that it would be very difficult to come up with a deal that works for both teams.

We don't know what Montembeault's asking price is, or what Hughes is willing to pay, or what the current gap is (Hughes knows, but he's not talking). Too long or too rich? Close to signing or not? We don't know. But beyond the untouchables, Edmonton has little to offer in terms of either young players, prospects or picks in any case, and most players have NTC/NMC so cannot be traded. On top of that, the Oilers are approaching a point where it's too late to salvage this season anyway. So, it sure doesn't look like there is a trade realistically possible with them.

5'7 but 183 lbs at draft -- that's 33 lbs heavier than Hutson's draft weight! Exactly!

AHL is even harder for skilled small players than the NHL, they get targeted by goons and aspiring fourth-liners out to make a name for themselves.

Mesar 3g+1a, second star. Now 8g+14a in 11 games, same 2p/game pace as linemate Carson Rehkopf, who leads the OHL in points.

I do believe his head is still on his shoulders, not part of his lower body!

I think you have hit the nail on the head.

Whether a player came in as a waiver pickup or a first-round pick shouldn't really matter, only his current value.

I rather think St-Louis is running random lines in practice to confuse any scouts that are watching ...

The advanced stats aren't the end-all and be-all, but they add more information and additional perspective. In the goaltending case, the high-danger shots generally indicate shots from very close to the net (where it's harder for the goalie to respond) and a low number of those confirms the eye test of most shots being from the outside.

Allen was decent but not that good. Most of the Bruins shots were from well outside, there were only a few really dangerous shots. xGF for the Bruins was roughly two.

A deep playoff run doesn't necessarily mean that the team is a legitimate contender, though. As a counter-example, I remember a few years ago there was an NHL team from La Belle Provence that made it to the final, and yet I would have been hard-pressed to identify them as a contender as the playoffs got under way. And a long-term contender is, I believe, what the Habs' management team is driving for. The Oilers should be a real contender, but I don't think they have been that at any time in the past few decades.

Most contenders may have some high draft picks, but high draft picks don't necessarily make you a contender. Most top-10 picks, 2016-2021: 1. Buffalo (6) 2. Detroit (5) 3. Vancouver, NY Rangers, New Jersey (4) 6. Anaheim, Arizona, Colorado, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Ottawa (3) That's the top ten swingers at the top ten draft picks. How many of those have actually turned into contenders? Rangers and Colorado are at 7% cup chance in Dom's model, Edmonton at 5%, all others 4% or less. And that's even with NJ and Buffalo having two first-overall picks in that period. Top-ten draft picks are really not much of a guarantee of success.

A good game against Detroit, and so far good tonight, even with the SHG. Glimmers of hope but it's not really enough yet.

Don, I encourage you to read the last sentence of my post, too. It was not really that long a read.

So, in your view, Montembeault played poorly last year, too? Most observers believe he was the primary reason why the Habs didn't end up with a higher draft pick this past summer. (NB whether he will be able to maintain that level or even continue to develop is a separate question that will be answered in the course of the current season.)

Occasionally the opposing goalie also has something to do with the lack of scoring.

I really don't think all that many contracts are based on "career" performance but, rather, on either recent and/or projected performance. Montembeault's 0.303 GSAx last season (13th in the league) will count for much more than his .890 seasons in 2019-2020 and 2021-2022. The trouble with looking for a starter elsewhere is that either you are paying a lot in trade, or else signing an older UFA goalie with a large cap hit. And that's even assuming that the Habs would be successful in securing someone. So, signing Montembeault to a reasonable contract would at least give the Habs a credible backup, and maybe something more than that should they not secure a clear 1G in some way. And should they somehow become aflush with top goalies, a Montembeault with a good contract would be very much tradeable.

It seems we are missing the GDT today!

That’s an awfully small sample size for Primeau. Allen is unlikely to be with the Habs two years from now, and younger prospects are unlikely to be ready by then. So, I can see why they are considering extending Montembeault.

And that’s exactly how St-Louis wants them to play; the forwards then need to cover for them.

It looks like the goal was scored as unassisted, alas.

That's four kids from Kitchener in the top six! They were expected to be in a rebuilding year but they are on fire early in the season. A great environment for Mesar to be playing in, hopefully they will be able to maintain this pace.