Spending money

[saskhab]

I'm a moderator at offthepost.net, so I'll link to the depth chart I have posted there for reference:

http://offthepost.net/forum/index.php/topic,8785.0.html

Basically, when you count contracts signed for next year (that were on our closing day roster), and the values of qualifying offers given to RFA's that were also on the roster, our current cap hit is:

$30 237 673.65

This is for a lineup of:

Higgins - Koivu - Ryder

Latendresse - Plekanec - Kovalev

Perezhogin - Lapierre - Kostitsyn

Samsonov - Begin - Murray

Streit - Komisarek

Bouillon - Dandenault

Gorges - Biron

Huet

Halak

A couple of notes:

- Sammy is included in full, as if he won't be bought out, traded, or waived. So if we assume he is not on our opening day roster in some form, we have more cap room available. How much room depends on the method we get rid of him, and who replaces him on the roster.

- I put Biron on the lineup as a replacement for Leighton just to balance out the lineup. Both made the league minimum last year and their QO value is the same ($495,000). We are very thin on the blueline at this point and I had to bring up a guy from the Bulldogs to fill the roster.

- There are no spares, so up to 3 more players can be added as signings take place before I start dropping players from the lineup.

- Players on the Bulldogs that are under contract that could make the team next year generally have a cap hit between $475 000 and $650 000. The two exceptions are Chipchura and Price, who both have cap hits in the $900 000 range. Keep this in mind when changing the cap figures for different lineup combinations.

If we assume we re-sign both Markov and Souray as Gainey said he would pursue, and do so at a rate of around $10m total, than we have about $8m (if the projected cap of $48m for next year holds true) to spend on raises for our RFA's and new UFA talent.

Also of note:

- Samsonov, Huet, Ryder, Streit, Leighton and Biron can all be Group III UFA's on July 1, 2008.

- Ryder, Komisarek, Higgins, Perezhogin, Plekanec, Leighton, Biron, Milroy, Ferland, and Archer are all eligible for salary arbitration this summer if they reject their qualifying offer (TO THE BEST OF MY KNOWLEDGE, NOT A GUARANTEE).

- The league minimium is raised next year to $475 000. However, cap hits on deals signed before still can be lower than that figure. An example is Ryan O'Byrne, who signed a 2 year deal last summer at $450,000 last year and $475 000 for this coming year, meaning his cap hit is $467 500 if he makes the team.

I'm going to be keeping this updated throughout the summer.

Never mind the Wild moniker. That's just for giggles this playoff.

[CBHabs_fan]

God help us if we dont sign BOTH of those guys (or someone equivalent). What an awful looking defense corps on paper.

[Athlétique.Canadien]

Thanks for this. I did the calculation myself assuming the good RFA's would average 2 million. Before Markov and Souray were signed it was around 30 million too. I tried to calculate Sammy and Kovy being bought out (it was before the press conference) but couldn't determine the cap hit with both. I guesstimated it's around 3 million total.

I decided that the average RFA money is gonna go around 2 million per player. Eg: If Higgins got 2.5 then Plekanec gets 1.5 or whatever combination it is, it'll probably average 2 million.

These are good numbers and I think it's safe to say the cap space we have is going to grow. Movements are likely to be made. Based on what Gainey says he wants to do I have to wonder what's going to give with our roster as far as trades may go.

[saskhab]

Thanks for this. I did the calculation myself assuming the good RFA's would average 2 million. Before Markov and Souray were signed it was around 30 million too. I tried to calculate Sammy and Kovy being bought out (it was before the press conference) but couldn't determine the cap hit with both. I guesstimated it's around 3 million total.

I decided that the average RFA money is gonna go around 2 million per player. Eg: If Higgins got 2.5 then Plekanec gets 1.5 or whatever combination it is, it'll probably average 2 million.

These are good numbers and I think it's safe to say the cap space we have is going to grow. Movements are likely to be made. Based on what Gainey says he wants to do I have to wonder what's going to give with our roster as far as trades may go.

I'll add this note, because the $30.2m figure includes qualifying offers, you only have to add the raises for calculations. If you think that Higgins will get $2.5m per season, than you add $1.8m or so to the total (because $706k is already included in the total). So it goes from $30.2m to just over $32m.

Komisarek is UFA in 2009, Higgins and Pleks I believe in 2010. So there is more urgency to sign Komi long term now than Higgins and Plekanec, because the long term negotiation window is closing.

[saskhab]

Also, there is some debate over the status of Andrei Kostitsyn for next season, whether he is under contract or not. He signed a 3 year entry level deal, played 3 professional seasons since then. The question is regarding his age (19) and GP at the NHL level in his first contract year (2004-05). I believe this is applicable for players that cannot be sent to the AHL, so that they would no longer be paid a pro salary. Because Kostitsyn still played in a pro league affiliated with the NHL, than I believe it counts as a year of contract. Also, I remember hearing the definition of "accrued season" w/r/t the lockout year, and it simply stated that the lockout counted as a season played to simplify things.

I don't know if that clears his status definitively, but until I see an official source that says he is under contract next year, than I'm not changing it.

[simonus]

Assume the habs spend to $46 mil - Boivin says that they have the capacity and will to spend to the cap but you want to leave a bit for emergencies, pickups, etc.

I figure we keep Markov, hopefully Souray, get rid of 1 of Dandenault or Bouillon. BG says he wants to rework the D-corp and you have to get rid of at least 1 of Dandy and Bouillon to get much of a change going. Gorges seems like a serviceable bottom pairing guy and I have continued faith in Streit as a D man. If kept, I'd prefer Dandenault as converted bottom trio forward than Streit. So you are left with:

Markov-Komisarek

Souray-Streit

Bouillon-Gorges

with Biron I guess as 7th.

With Bonk and Johnson probably both gone you have to reform the 3rd line. I would love to see a new top-2 centre come in via trade/UFA, but do not discount the possibility of giving the spot to plek (who continues to emerge as an offensive threat) and seeing if Grabs can take some big club Offensive centre minutes away from him. I'd also like to see the canadiens bring back the idea of a offense conscious 3rd line, ala BG habs in late 2005 season.

One note on bringing in a new centre - there are a lot of guys at centre in the system and I think you either have to think about converting some guys to wing or trade away. I can see Grabs or Chip possibly becoming fulltime habs in the next season depending on the structure/depth of the 2007 squad. Chips seems more likely (based on my limited prospect knowledge) insoar as he has the better D and can show that skill more easily on bottom trios. I could see a Begin-Chip-Lapierre line being effective as a 4th.

Let us say we keep Markov and Souray (or 1 of the 2 + semi-equiv UFA) = ~$11mil

So I guess you are really talking about $5-6 million to throw at a UFA. Could that net a Briere? Perhaps.

[InsaneHABSfan]

saskhab.

I am going to require at least a week to figure out all those numbers. Are you one of those capologists I hear so much about but fail to believe exist?

[saskhab]

saskhab.

I am going to require at least a week to figure out all those numbers. Are you one of those capologists I hear so much about but fail to believe exist?

lol

I'm good with numbers, I've done a lot of the grunt work on this front and figured giving an easy base figure for us going forward would help fans realize what we can and can't do this summer. Most fans have an idea where they think the value is of some players, so right now it's a matter of calculating up to $18m to try and come up with next year's team.

I have an exact figure, but with most prospects not named Chipchura or Price, subbing them into the figure is pretty easy. Just pick about $575,000 as an average and work the number from there. The difference of a couple hundred grand only comes into play if we're very tight to the cap. At this point, all options appear open.

I'd do more work regarding comparable players salary wise, but I think I'd want to start getting a paycheque from the Canadiens first.

[shortcat1]

yowch.... an awful lot to work with... and so many different contingencies to consider... i think i'll leave this kind of stuff and the associated developments to you...

thanks for the grunt work and number crunching...

GO :hlogo: GO!

[saskhab]

Here's the Samsonov buyout scenario:

Buyout at 2/3 of his contract value ($3.525m x 2/3), split cap hit over next 2 years (divide by 2):

$1.175m cap hit. Bring up a player from the minors, for the sake of appearances last year in the NHL we'll say Milroy. He makes $609 950 after his qualifying offer.

So... take the last cap figure, subtract 2/3 of Samsonov's contract and add Milroy's.

$30 237 673.65-$3.525m+$1.175m+$609 950 = $28 497 623.65

So now we have about $19.5m to work with if the cap is at $48m.

And we're working from this lineup:

Higgins - Koivu - Ryder

Latendresse - Plekanec - Kovalev

Perezhogin - Lapierre - Kostitsyn

Murray - Begin - Milroy

Streit - Komisarek

Bouillon - Dandenault

Gorges - Biron

Huet

Halak

[Habitforming]

Here's the Samsonov buyout scenario:

Buyout at 2/3 of his contract value ($3.525m x 2/3), split cap hit over next 2 years (divide by 2):

$1.175m cap hit. Bring up a player from the minors, for the sake of appearances last year in the NHL we'll say Milroy. He makes $609 950 after his qualifying offer.

So... take the last cap figure, subtract 2/3 of Samsonov's contract and add Milroy's.

$30 237 673.65-$3.525m+$1.175m+$609 950 = $28 497 623.65

So now we have about $19.5m to work with if the cap is at $48m.

And we're working from this lineup:

Higgins - Koivu - Ryder

Latendresse - Plekanec - Kovalev

Perezhogin - Lapierre - Kostitsyn

Murray - Begin - Milroy

Streit - Komisarek

Bouillon - Dandenault

Gorges - Biron

Huet

Halak

So once you get rid of Gorges and Biron and add Markov and Souray as well as $11M or so we have roughly $8M to get a number 1-2 centre and maybe some blueline help?

Of course that is IF the team spends to, or close to, the cap limit.

Gillett might not want to spend to the limit after missing the post season revenue this year, don't forget how expensive Liverpool was.

[Fanpuck33]

Here's the Samsonov buyout scenario:

If the Jackets were able to trade an almost equally worthless Anson Carter, the Habs will be able to get something for Samsonov, even if it's a 7th rounder in 2010 or something. I realize he passed waivers, but things change between then and the offseason when teams will be losing players who were filling a similar role.

[InsaneHABSfan]

If the Jackets were able to trade an almost equally worthless Anson Carter, the Habs will be able to get something for Samsonov, even if it's a 7th rounder in 2010 or something. I realize he passed waivers, but things change between then and the offseason when teams will be losing players who were filling a similar role.

I'd trade him for BLT sandwich right about now! :hlogo:

[Peter Puck]

I'd trade him for BLT sandwich right about now! :hlogo:

Hmm. Not sure I'd do that. Is it toasted?

[InsaneHABSfan]

Hmm. Not sure I'd do that. Is it toasted?

Usually they would be but I would not want to lose the deal.

[saskhab]

If the Jackets were able to trade an almost equally worthless Anson Carter, the Habs will be able to get something for Samsonov, even if it's a 7th rounder in 2010 or something. I realize he passed waivers, but things change between then and the offseason when teams will be losing players who were filling a similar role.

I guess it depends how long you want to keep Sammy on your roster. They'll try and trade him at the draft, for sure. The buyout period is June 16th-30th. If the talks don't go anywhere, they might just cut their losses and buy him out before that option is off the table. However, if they get some interest, and still can't make the deal at that point, they may hold onto Samsonov until after free agency is over and see who is left without the player they thought they might acquire and take a flyer on Sammy.

Any option is possible, but it sounds like they want the issue solved by training camp and don't want him reporting there at all.

The Habs have the option of, during the summer, being up to 10% over the cap. They must get under the cap by around Oct. 3 when rosters are submitted. New Jersey spent all of last summer over the cap until they clarified the Mogilny and Malakhov situations, waived McGillis, then got Gionta, Martin, Hale, and Dowd signed on the last day of training camp.

Edited April 18, 2007 by saskhab

[Bullsmith]

Great thread. This topic will be the most intersting one of the summer, no doubt. Thanks for doing the math.

Given the youth that made the team and the youth in the system, I just can't see Gainey not moving some young talent and/or draft picks. For sure he'll be working the draft looking to get a not-too-old veteran with character to help the team. If there's no deal at the draft (which would surprise me) then for sure we'll see something happen before camp.

Regardless of how much cap room he has, Gainey won't just be looking at UFAs. He'll be looking to make a deal for a character player or two and he might be more likely to trade than to sign for it. He's got a glut of solid, tradeable assets, especially young forwards and draft picks, that are probably more valuable somewhere else than they are in Montreal right now.

[saskhab]

Great thread. This topic will be the most intersting one of the summer, no doubt. Thanks for doing the math.

Given the youth that made the team and the youth in the system, I just can't see Gainey not moving some young talent and/or draft picks. For sure he'll be working the draft looking to get a not-too-old veteran with character to help the team. If there's no deal at the draft (which would surprise me) then for sure we'll see something happen before camp.

Regardless of how much cap room he has, Gainey won't just be looking at UFAs. He'll be looking to make a deal for a character player or two and he might be more likely to trade than to sign for it. He's got a glut of solid, tradeable assets, especially young forwards and draft picks, that are probably more valuable somewhere else than they are in Montreal right now.

It's also important to keep in mind that the most significant acquisitions of last summer were through trade, not as much through UFA. Luongo, Pronger, Demitra, and Havlat were all moved through trade, and the trades had significant (at times remarkable) impact on each team's performance. Last year's biggest UFA signing was Chara, which resulted in minimal improvement for Boston.

[Partisan]

I think all youngsters will eat the 8 Million marge or a big part of it plus Souray and Markov....meaning we wont have much room to sign a big player...or am i misunderstanding things...saskhab.

And perhaps Emelin will be signed also...could resolve part of the D corp.

However i hope we get reinforcement from attackers.

[ShortHanded]

Usually they would be but I would not want to lose the deal.

HAHAHA!!!

[saskhab]

I think all youngsters will eat the 8 Million marge or a big part of it plus Souray and Markov....meaning we wont have much room to sign a big player...or am i misunderstanding things...saskhab.

And perhaps Emelin will be signed also...could resolve part of the D corp.

However i hope we get reinforcement from attackers.

Some of that $8m will go to restricted free agents in the form of raises above their qualifying offer. If Komisarek gets in the $2m raise, that lowers the cap space to $7m. If Higgins goes in that same range, that lowers it to $5.7m. If Plekanec goes in the $1.5m range, that lowers it to $4.7m. Then there is Ryder, whether he gets a raise or not. That's why buying out Samsonov is such a high priority if we can't dump him on someone else at the draft. And it is also why people are suggesting that we trade one of Bouillon or Dandenault.

We can sign an impact player, but other moves (subtractions) have to accompany it. And not a lot of them, either, in reality. Ryder is the most interesting option because of his looming UFA next year.

[habs rule]

I believe that bob can trade samsonov, this is not a great year for ufa's and I have to believe that there is some gm/coach who believes that he can get the most out of sammy and turn him into the best that he can be. Look at riberiro he managed to put up basically the same numbers in dallas as he did in montreal and people say he had a great season leading scorer and all that. there must be a home for sammy.

[InsaneHABSfan]

I believe that bob can trade samsonov, this is not a great year for ufa's and I have to believe that there is some gm/coach who believes that he can get the most out of sammy and turn him into the best that he can be. Look at riberiro he managed to put up basically the same numbers in dallas as he did in montreal and people say he had a great season leading scorer and all that. there must be a home for sammy.

I think you are right on with this observation habs rule as there is always someone who will trade for a guy that has some offence. Samsonov with a good playmaking centre would thrive on a team that does not give a Rats bumbum about defence.

We saw Sammy try to check and move the puck out of his own end of the ice and it was not pretty. That is a problem Montreal cannot afford. I think BG will actually get a project or very late round pick for him. If all else fails, well buy him out.....

[habs rule]

or go back to my original thought which is send him to hamilton for a month which costs 0$ against the cap.

[saskhab]

or go back to my original thought which is send him to hamilton for a month which costs 0$ against the cap.

I don't think the team wants the hassle of Samsonov being around the organization at training camp. I don't think they want the reputation of putting NHL veterans in the minors. It becomes an issue in attracting vets to the organization. No movement clause requests, makes it difficult for teams to trust management. Even though Sammy may not deserve the respect of the organization providing him a NHL job next year, it doesn't suit our interests to put him in the minors.

Plus, Gillett would be paying more money for Samsonov than a buyout does. We made a mistake, Sammy made a mistake, both reputations have been hurt by it, let's just put it behind us, take the cap hit as penalty and move on.