20/20 Hindsight

[puck7x]

If you enjoyed Colin's last article then you might enjoy this one...

20/20 Hindsight: http://habsworld.net/article.php?id=840

For the record I think Theodore is the better goalie of the two now, and in the future. But having said that, Garon definitely has the better attitude, and probably isnt as greedy as Theodore.

[bombTHEice]

It seems like Garon played pretty bad AHL playoffs this year but it doesn't have to say anthing.

I think it was a very good trade ... we got Bonk and Huet for an unproven goalie and a third. Garon might become a very good goalie but I personally don't think so. Perhaps a good back-up (as he was for the HABS) but nothing more.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

Colin, you do write excellent articles.

I think we got a decent return on that trade. I liked Garon and the few times I was able to watch him play both made me sick and made me exstatic.

Remember the game against the Kings where Garon was insane. I mean he made saves that were beyond incredible.

I also remember a game where he started against the Leafs and completely bombed.

I am DEEPLY concerned about Theo. His attitude more than his skill (although I have some questions regarding his last playoff performance).

He seems much more interested in holding out for the really big $ than wearing the Habs jersey. I think he is overpaid as it is. One great season and playoff does not demand top dollar IMO.

If Theo is demanding 6 plus million then he needs to go. There are other goalies we can get till Danis or Price are ready.

I fear another Brisebois fiasco.

[habForever]

I agree with you about the Garon trade. I was really pissed when they made that trade, coz I see him becoming a better or as good of a goaltender as Theo (have argued with my brother with this one to know end). i think Montreal made a terrible trade, bcoz Theo was simply getting to expensive and I wasn't overly impressed with his last playoff run. Garon was a much more prized prospect, and goalies and defenseman tend to take a lot longer to develop then forwards (see Gigeaure or Souray). This is one reason as much as I think Hainsey would be great trade bait with Tampa, I'm leery of him coming back and haunting the habs by becoming the stud D that he was supposed to be.

I am also a bit leery of expectations on Price, coz goalie prospects and particularly WHL goalie prospects tend to be a bit of a crap shoot (remember that Trevor Kidd was taken ahead of both Broduer and Potvin) and Dipitro really hasn't done much yet. The only high pick goalie prospect that provided almost immediate dividends was barrasso.

I don't think Montreal needed a third line centre - certainly not a $3.5M one. they need a true number one centre (love Koivu - lots of heart and leadership - but is really a number 2 or a 1B).

After seeing Lecvalier man handle montreal during the playoff, I really think Montreal needs to make a Lecavalier deal now. I see him having a really monster year, which is just going to make him more expensive next year. I'd be esthatic if monteal could make a Price, Ribeiro, Dagenies/Hainsey deal for Lecavalier and Kubina. although i wouldn't be willing to give up Koivu for a guy who will be a free agent next year.

While I think that Gainey is probably the Montreal GM i'm most comfortable with since Sam Pollack (don't even get me started about Savard:mad:, I think Gainey has made a number of bad moves and tends to overpay players. he really overpaid Audette back when he was with the stars (considering he was injury prone, incosistant and over-rated), as well as with the habs. He paid too much for Bonk who was expected to be a third liner as well as Rivet - who is a great team guy and plays with a lot of heart - but not worth the money he was signed to. I really think montreal should have bought out Rivet and BOnk and cleared more salary room for a true Number one centre and defenseman. They would have saved around $5, which would have come in handy to sign a #1 centre like Forsburg, or come in handy down the line for Lecavalier.

I'd also make the Theo and Ryder for Lugano deal in a heartbeat. i think Lugano is a not only a better goalie then Theo, but still has even more upside while also being three years away from UFA status. Moreover, clearing the team of Ryder, Ribeiro and Dagenieus would make room for some prospects to show if they belong. Can you imagine if Gainey was able to make the Lecavlier and Lugano deals, montreal having a core up front that would include Lecavlier, Koivu, Kovalev, Zednick, Bonk Bulis complemented by kids like Higgens and Pelanak, Hossa (if they pan out)? and Souray, Kubina, Markov, kimosarak, Rivet on the D and Lugano in net?? AND be under the cap

The key to Montreal being a true force again is having that Dominant #1 at centre and making you have a stud goalie for years to come

[Edited on 2005/8/6 by habForever]

[alexstream]

Originally posted by HABS Fan Nr.1

It seems like Garon played pretty bad AHL playoffs this year but it doesn't have to say anthing.

I think it was a very good trade ... we got Bonk and Huet for an unproven goalie and a third. Garon might become a very good goalie but I personally don't think so. Perhaps a good back-up (as he was for the HABS) but nothing more.

:bow:

Thanks Hannes, I was about to write a counter article, but you summed it up. Colin, great article, but I couldn't DISAGREE more.

But I would still want to add to Hannes reply...

If Garon can be that bad and consistently bad in AHL playoffs... I don't want him on my team... he was the WORST AHL GOALIE in the playoffs on a LOADED TEAM...

go have a look www.theahl.com check the stats...

While he was good during regular season... you look at other guys on less stacked team who got way better stats (Jason Labarbera was playing in Rags farm, decent, but less good than LA farm)

No namers being better than Garon in AHL... man this guy stinks, we're lucky to have ripped BONKER from them!!!

you'll see, you won't regret having Bonk on the 3rd.

Yeah, Theo might be expensive down the road... But which other goalie can win a game by himself??? not many.

By the way, you all look at Bulin's contract and say "######, we have to trade theo, he's too expensive"

Who told you that Theo would get Bulin's contract??? Personally I look at Brodeur's contract (5.4M) and I say, well Theo's gonna get a lot of dough, but 4.5M is decent for a goalie of his quality.

Trust me, Gainey will trade him before giving him over 5M he will shoot Theo and himself in the foot if he give Theo more than that. Theo cannot logically make way more than our best player, Kovalev.

Time will tell, but Stop that BS about Saying that Theo is greedy because

*IMPORTANT* : The numbers which are rumoured are fictive!!! Yvon Pednault (who else!! as usual.. he writes something and people start rumours out of their misinterpretation) Wrote an article saying that Theo MIGHT ASK (you see, MIGHT) for around 5.5M over 4 years...

BUT THEO NEVER MENTIONNED how much he would ask for... Stop putting words in his mouth and wanting to hang him up because PEDNAULT made an HYPOTHESIS about what Theo COULD ASK for this season.

We'll see, but I'm pretty sure Gainey would never ever give over 5M to Theo...

which is fair since he really is one of the best.

[Roo-AH! Roo-AH!]

I agree with Alexstream. It's always tempting to overrate players with 'potential'---they haven't had the opportunity to fall on their faces. Theodore has PROVEN that he can dominate and carry a team on his back over the course of seasons and into the playoffs. Garon has merely looked excellent as a backup starter, mostly in low-pressure contests. The fact that Gainey decided to keep Theodore shows that he is *serious* about winning, because he went with the sure thing.

I'm not sure, incidentally, what it would mean for Garon to be 'better' than Theodore. Theo is regarded as, at worst, a top-5 goalie in the NHL. Unless Garon is the next Patrick Roy, the best you can say is that he MAY end up being in Theodore's class. Or he may not.

But I would trade Theo for Luongo if the money made sense. Luongo has also shown he can carry a team.

[Edited on 2005/8/6 by Roo-AH! Roo-AH!]

[Edited on 2005/8/6 by Roo-AH! Roo-AH!]

[alexstream]

Originally posted by Roo-AH! Roo-AH!

But I would trade Theo for Luongo if the money made sense. Luongo has also shown he can carry a team.

Yeah, I personally see it as 4 quaters for a dollar... But NHL GMs seem to be higher on Luongo that on Theo, so I must trust them, but I wouldn't add a Ryder in the equation... maybe a high pick.

We'll really see what Luongo is able to do this season... he has a replica of our 01-02 habs in front of him... Some good young guys, a finnish captain, some washed up vets who are still able to provide something to a young team. I'd even say that they have a best roster than we had in 01-02. So if they don't make the playoffs, blame Luongo... and I'm serious!!! they never make the playoffs (because of their crappy team), but we always hear only praises for Luongo...

So if he fails, I hope everyone will blame him as everyone blamed Theo in 02-03.

Otherwise, I'd have to say that habs fans suffer from the "neighbour's grass is greener" syndrome.

[Colin]

To start, let me say thank you for the comments regarding the writing. It's great to have what you do awknowledged, but it's even better when people disagree that they do it in a constructive manner, thus furthering the discussion - which is what these boards are about - and ultimately what any kind of 'press' reporting is about. I believe that a writer is accountable for what they produce and (unlike some writers whose names will go unmentioned but who cover the Habs) I will never close my mind to a discussion. I'm here to learn as well as write; and to engage in constructive debate.

***

Two things I want to address here: first the issue of Theo being overrated, which has been mentioned to me both privately and publically in other places, and then a quick thought or two about Garon last year in the AHL.

First, I put this in another, LESSER boards, but I'll cut'n'paste it here because I think it has relevance and goes to some length to express where I am regarding 'overrating' Theo.

*snip*

While I can understand the premise behind the thread, what disturbs me somewhat is that the premise is flawed. I'm not sure there's anyone out there who really underestimates Theodore, not at all. Ask almost anyone who knows anything about hockey and they'll point to the Montreal shot-stopper as one of the top five in his position. It's not ability that's really questioned, when it comes to Theo.

Perhaps what is really questioned is the ability of the goalie that isn't Theo - in the case of the original poster, Garon. There is a following that believes Garon might very well become a better player. Saying that does not in any way diminish Theo's game. Not at all. What it does say is that Garon's reflexes, legs, and work ethic could all finally gel to make one of the best goalies in the game.

That said, I think the real issue lies inside Theo's noggin - and *that* is where most people have a problem. There is no debate that he's got almost as much ego as a certain King Patrick - incidentally this latter's ego took him out of Montreal. It's not even all bad: I have no problem with confidence, especially with players between the pipes, since a little swagger seems to make the best goaltenders. It's the over-bearing nature that somehow leaks to the press and fans that's nauseating.

That aside, there's also the question of his salary. Khabibulin, another top-five guy, just belly flopped into the cash bin and came out a crook. If he can make this kind of money - as a sometimes inconsistent goalie who is no better than Theo on any given night - then why can't our pipe darling? As another poster has already mentioned, Theo could hold the team ransom and seriously handcuff its ability to sign any more talent with the potential salary he might demand.

Would you rather have a guy who's top-15 now, with upside, as well as an upgraded defence, or a top-5 guy who might very well force us to make hard choices and go leaner on the defensive side? Don't get me wrong, I'm not passing judgement here, but it's the question that certainly has touched many a mind. Both have upsides, and both have downsides, it comes down to where you are on the team-building scale.

If Theo feels greedy, he's basically done one of two things: he's signed his ticket out of town or he's guaranteed that Montreal is going to struggle to do anything significant in the playoffs. If he decides that Montreal is where he wants to be and is willing to put his mouth where his money will be? We'll be fine, and might even have some wiggle dollars for upgrades here and there.

No, Theo is not underrated, not as I see it, not by a long shot. But what he is, is feared - because of what he could single-handedly do to handcuff the club. And people don't usually like what they fear.

*end snip*

Now, as to Garon's tough playoff last year. I completely agree. He was extremely disappointing, there's no doubt about it, and not really much else to say in that respect. BUT, after Theo had his wonderful MVP year, what did he do in the NHL for his encore? He was *woefully* inconsistent, allowing about one softy goal a game (backbreaker in a low scoring NHL).

There were rumbles that three years Khabi was done because he was so horribly inconsistent. Luongo continues to this day to get immense flak for causing half his own troubles. He's probably the best pure shot-stopper in hockey, but since he can't control his rebounds as well as other keepers, he increases his work load immeasurably.

As has been stated elsewhere, the best goalie is Brodeur, for the precise reason that he's so very consistent. Even when he has his two or three bad games a year, they aren't really bad games.

Okay, Garon had a really tough end to the season - and in fairness, probably wasn't at the top of his game all year, but I still believe he has all the skills to at least match Theo - and be cheaper all the while. (Theo's big contract came before the new CBA so his contracts will always be based on that while Garon's contracts have never been large.) What he needs is a bit of confidence and I think we'll start seeing a Garon who will be stellar on any given night.

I guess my point is that we can never look at closeted points in time, especially with goaltenders. If we did that, Theo would be long gone after his horrid (for his) season a couple of years back. Garon had a tough time, fine, but that doesn't mean that his skill and potential evaporated. He still has a very real chance to outshine his mentor, should everything gel for him.

Now, having said that, I'd like to make it perfectly clear that I'm not disappointed with having Theo here. I'm just disappointed that Garon is not. See the difference?

;-)

Colin

(Edited for opening remarks.)

[Edited on 2005/8/6 by Guy!]

[beckham]

The problem with 20/20 hindsight is that if you spend your time looking backwards you either run into something or fall off the edge of the road. Theo is here, Garon is gone. Both are overrated, but at least Jose has a body of work to make that a little less obnoxious. Carey Price will be far better than either of them or Luongo, or anyone else you want to come up with. Price can be Ken Dryden, or Patrick Roy without the steriods and the surliness.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

Originally posted by Guy!

*snip*

While I can understand the premise behind the thread, what disturbs me somewhat is that the premise is flawed. I'm not sure there's anyone out there who really underestimates Theodore, not at all. Ask almost anyone who knows anything about hockey and they'll point to the Montreal shot-stopper as one of the top five in his position. It's not ability that's really questioned, when it comes to Theo.

Perhaps what is really questioned is the ability of the goalie that isn't Theo - in the case of the original poster, Garon. There is a following that believes Garon might very well become a better player. Saying that does not in any way diminish Theo's game. Not at all. What it does say is that Garon's reflexes, legs, and work ethic could all finally gel to make one of the best goalies in the game.

That said, I think the real issue lies inside Theo's noggin - and *that* is where most people have a problem. There is no debate that he's got almost as much ego as a certain King Patrick - incidentally this latter's ego took him out of Montreal. It's not even all bad: I have no problem with confidence, especially with players between the pipes, since a little swagger seems to make the best goaltenders. It's the over-bearing nature that somehow leaks to the press and fans that's nauseating.

That aside, there's also the question of his salary. Khabibulin, another top-five guy, just belly flopped into the cash bin and came out a crook. If he can make this kind of money - as a sometimes inconsistent goalie who is no better than Theo on any given night - then why can't our pipe darling? As another poster has already mentioned, Theo could hold the team ransom and seriously handcuff its ability to sign any more talent with the potential salary he might demand.

Would you rather have a guy who's top-15 now, with upside, as well as an upgraded defence, or a top-5 guy who might very well force us to make hard choices and go leaner on the defensive side? Don't get me wrong, I'm not passing judgement here, but it's the question that certainly has touched many a mind. Both have upsides, and both have downsides, it comes down to where you are on the team-building scale.

If Theo feels greedy, he's basically done one of two things: he's signed his ticket out of town or he's guaranteed that Montreal is going to struggle to do anything significant in the playoffs. If he decides that Montreal is where he wants to be and is willing to put his mouth where his money will be? We'll be fine, and might even have some wiggle dollars for upgrades here and there.

No, Theo is not underrated, not as I see it, not by a long shot. But what he is, is feared - because of what he could single-handedly do to handcuff the club. And people don't usually like what they fear.

*end snip*

[Edited on 2005/8/6 by Guy!]

That sums up exactly how I feel.

[alexstream]

Ok, so if instead you were telling me: let's get (x player at 4M) and sign Thibeault or Cloutier at 2M instead of giving 5M (there is no way BG accepts to give 6M to Theo) to Theo...

I would have understood your point better (your article I mean)

That's respectful. and you can agree or disatgree, that's called allocating your resources

But.. problem is that you were talking about regreting to trade Garon... and that's where you lost me ... because:

1. I'm not high on Garon, not even sure he can acchieve Thibault's status (well ok he might acchieves Tbo status)

2. I'm not only high on Bonk, I'm eccstatic about the idea of having him on the 3rd.. I hated JJ's work... I hate passive dump and chase 3rd line... I want a 3rd line with guys who can score!!! (even if they don't!) so I think that the trade was awesome (since IMO we traded backup for backup...)

but if you mean allocating our resources differently... I'm not against it. I didn't bash anyone who said Vinny for Theo... we'd be switching our assets' position. We'd be stronger at Center and weaker at goaltending (burke, tbo, joseph, anyone available)

[Edited on 2005/8/6 by alexstream]

[Roo-AH! Roo-AH!]

Yeah, and Theo is not a top-15 goalie, he's a top-5er. Who's better?

1. Brodeur.

2. Lungo, maybe.

3. Kiprussof, probably.

4. Belfour...if he doesn't die of old age before the season starts...maybe.

Can't think of anyone else who is OBVIOUSLY better than Theo.

Someone will say 'Khabibulin,' but gimme a break, talk about inconsistent---he nearly lost his job in midseason last time around, for God's sake.

I think subconsciously people forget to compare Theo to his peers, they compare him to Roy or other Habs greats. In the NHL as it presently stands, Theo is top-5. So, as long as he can fit in the cap, trading him makes no sense, unless (a) you get another top-5 back or (B) you get a decent goalie AND an offesnive superstar back.

[Colin]

What I was saying was that, looking back, Gainey might be somewhat regretful for having made that decision. I know that at the time it seemed like the correct decision in his eyes, and I know that he had no way of knowing what the future was going to hold for the financial end of hockey. Call it a wistful article where Gainey might look back with just a tinge of regret seeing how resource allocation is different these days.

No matter how much we all like Bonk, the fact remains that he's a very highly paid 3rd line centre...very highly paid. As I've been mulling this thread over today it's come to me that perhaps the reason we've been hearing so much trade talk with Ribbies and Sax's names popping up is because Bonk will actually be the *2nd* line centre - leaving Higgins to the third line.

But, hindsight 20/20 and all.... it wasn't a bashing piece or anything like that. Just a look back.

Colin

[JLP]

Also I wonder if we still would have picked Price if Garon was still with us. Is Theo really being a primadonna, or are those just rumours. I hope he signs in the 4,5 - 5,0 mil range but with Khabibulin getting what he got, it depends how closely Theo listens to his agent, who is on a percentage of course, or to his heart, which presumably belongs to Montreal.

[alexstream]

Originally posted by JeanLucPilon

Also I wonder if we still would have picked Price if Garon was still with us. Is Theo really being a primadonna, or are those just rumours. I hope he signs in the 4,5 - 5,0 mil range but with Khabibulin getting what he got, it depends how closely Theo listens to his agent, who is on a percentage of course, or to his heart, which presumably belongs to Montreal.

aaaaaaah come on, that discussion is over, PRICE WAS THE BPA, GOALIE OR NOT, HE WAS THE BPA. (no rude tone was used while writing this post)

seriously I'm sure that BG had no parallel intent in picking Price... that would be foolish anyway to do so... it would be wasting a high draft pick

Drafting Price because he was the BPA

and then looking at it and thinking that he'll be our 2010 starter, that's an awesome decision... takes balls, but that's awesome

[alexstream]

Originally posted by Guy!

What I was saying was that, looking back, Gainey might be somewhat regretful for having made that decision. I know that at the time it seemed like the correct decision in his eyes, and I know that he had no way of knowing what the future was going to hold for the financial end of hockey. Call it a wistful article where Gainey might look back with just a tinge of regret seeing how resource allocation is different these days.

No matter how much we all like Bonk, the fact remains that he's a very highly paid 3rd line centre...very highly paid. As I've been mulling this thread over today it's come to me that perhaps the reason we've been hearing so much trade talk with Ribbies and Sax's names popping up is because Bonk will actually be the *2nd* line centre - leaving Higgins to the third line.

But, hindsight 20/20 and all.... it wasn't a bashing piece or anything like that. Just a look back.

Colin

I don't think Gainey can have emotions :king:

When we got Bonk I secretly put Ribs' name on the trade block.

But I think the kid has some chances of staying with us, unless Gainey receives a call from another GM asking to be screwed in a trade, I think Ribs would remain our 2nd line pivot.

ALSO, FYI, Higgins has been switched to wing when he got in AHL, he's listed as a Center, I know, but trust me, it has been well documented that the habs managment wanted him to play the wing... and he has played wing for the two past seasons!

[shortcat1]

Originally posted by Guy!

No matter how much we all like Bonk, the fact remains that he's a very highly paid 3rd line centre...very highly paid.  As I've been mulling this thread over today it's come to me that perhaps the reason we've been hearing so much trade talk with Ribbies and Sax's names popping up is because Bonk will actually be the *2nd* line centre - leaving Higgins to the third line.

Colin

I wonder if, with the presence and the talents of Bonk that we might, in fact, have two #2 lines.

The first line is reputedly going to be the 'K' line. Line 2a would be reputedly Ribeiro, Ryder & Dagenais. Line 2b would be, of course, Bonk, Bulis & one of the Bulldogs (Higgins, Plekanec) or Perezhogin. This line would have a good offensive capability and a definite defensive capability.

If this is a fairly accurate assessment of the possibilities of these line make-ups then, literally, more power to us.

[Roo-AH! Roo-AH!]

And don't forget that Bonk is 'polyvalente' as they say chez nous ---he played multiple positions in Ottawa and frequently served as their #1 centre, although everyone agreed that that wasn't optimal. I wouldn't be surprised to find him and Ribiero on the same line at some point.

[alexstream]

Originally posted by shortcat1

Originally posted by Guy!

No matter how much we all like Bonk, the fact remains that he's a very highly paid 3rd line centre...very highly paid.  As I've been mulling this thread over today it's come to me that perhaps the reason we've been hearing so much trade talk with Ribbies and Sax's names popping up is because Bonk will actually be the *2nd* line centre - leaving Higgins to the third line.

Colin

I wonder if, with the presence and the talents of Bonk that we might, in fact, have two #2 lines.

The first line is reputedly going to be the 'K' line. Line 2a would be reputedly Ribeiro, Ryder & Dagenais. Line 2b would be, of course, Bonk, Bulis & one of the Bulldogs (Higgins, Plekanec) or Perezhogin. This line would have a good offensive capability and a definite defensive capability.

If this is a fairly accurate assessment of the possibilities of these line make-ups then, literally, more power to us.

you can get Dags out of the portrait, I'm serious about that, he was signed as a bench warmer.

Higgins and Perez will fill these spot.

But we most certainly have a heck of a 3rd line... will kick our 2nd line's butt on some nights...

[Edited on 2005/8/7 by alexstream]

[bombTHEice]

Originally posted by Guy!

Now, as to Garon's tough playoff last year. I completely agree. He was extremely disappointing, there's no doubt about it, and not really much else to say in that respect. BUT, after Theo had his wonderful MVP year, what did he do in the NHL for his encore? He was *woefully* inconsistent, allowing about one softy goal a game (backbreaker in a low scoring NHL).  

As I've said, this AHL playoffs doesn't have to say anything but hey, it's the AHL and not the NHL.

Théo had a great year, winning games in front of a very average defence and was rewarded with the well deserved Vezina - Garon will face the same situation this year with the Kings, as I don't think that their defence is one of the better ones. There he can show if he's really a Nr.1 or not, the same as Théo did a couple of years back with the HABS.

And yes, Théo had a very average season right after the Vezina season - he wasn't fully concentrated, had no good preparation, did too many tv spots and on and on. But the following season he rebounded, he left the bad season behind him. He had a much better training camp, concentrated on his job and showed that he fully deserved the Vezina 2 seasons ago. I hope we can sign him to a long term contract - I personally rather have a more expensive Théo, than the unproven Garon. Garon might become a good one but he still have to show it and he has the best possibility to do so with the Kings this year.

[alexstream]

Originally posted by HABS Fan Nr.1

Garon might become a good one but he still have to show it and he has the best possibility to do so with the Kings this year.

amen :/)