Here Come The Montreal Canadiens

[Athlétique.Canadien]

I thought that this would be a good idea to do a future analysis of what the Habs are going to do in 06-07.

IMO: Make no mistake. Montreal is going to be LETHAL this year. There are several reasons why. When you add them all up, things begin to make sense that they are going to surprise. Not just a little, but a lot!

:hlogo: Here Come The Montreal Canadiens. :hlogo:

Number 1 - The Carbonneau factor: We all remember 2002 when we beat Boston. Therrien was the head coach and his assistant was GUY CARBONNEAU!

That playoff was a close one. It’s possible we might have beaten Carolina if things had worked out. But, they didn’t. However, remember how tedious the Habs were when playing without the puck. A Bruin or Cane would get the puck and boom – A habs WAS THERE!

THEY MASTERFULLY PLAYED WELL WITHOUT THE PUCK AND DROVE THE OPPOSITION UP THE WALL!

That was not Michel Therrien’s mastery. It was all Carbonneau’s. The proof is what happened when he left in 2003 and we, we…missed the playoffs.

Carbonneau is going to employ an awesome defensive strategy that will make opponents wish they were at the dentist instead of playing us.

Also, the Carbo factor has another element to it that we might not be considering. He has a full year with training camp to boot to teach faceoffs, defensive strategies etc. Every player should be on the same page this year.

The Muller and Jarvis factor: We all know about Jarvis. No doubt he has his own element of mastery that he will be allowed to employ all season. The wildcard is Muller who deepens the attitude in the staff for an attitude of winning.

All of these elements are going to add up to one heck of a PK unit. I submit that we will love our PK numbers. I predict they will be in the top 5 in the NHL.

The Line 1A and 1B factor: It was 1A Higgins, Koivu - Ryder & 1B Zednik – Ribeiro – Kovalev. Minus out Zed and insert Samsonov.

Line 3 and 4 are solid. Perezhogin - Plekanec – Johnson & Murray – Bonk – Begin. Basically all 4 lines will have the potential to drive opponents batty.

The Sophomore Factor: Higgins, Plekanec, Perezhogin & Murray. Now, I’m not for one second saying that Higgins, Plekanec, Perezhogin & Murray are in the mould of Eric Stall but, look at Staal’s rookie year versus his sophomore year. It is true that he had an AHL year due to the lockout but still. How likely is it that none of our sophomores will have breakouts? I figure at least one must end up with at least an improved game.

Year Team League GP G A Pts +/- PIM Shots Sh%

2005-06 Carolina NHL 82 45 55 100 -8 81 279 16.13

2004-05 Lowell AHL 77 26 51 77 +37 88 224 11.61

2003-04 Carolina NHL 81 11 20 31 -6 40 164 6.71

Hopefully there are no sophomore jinxes with us in 2007. But, if there are there’s always the Chipchura, Latendresse, Kostitsyn replacement factor. Even Grabovsky is a replacement we could use if necessary among others.

The big question is Huet. I believe he will cut it. We have to remember that he simply covers A LOT of net. If he could repeat his performance at a 75% level, we’ll be fine!

Your comments.

[habscout]

I am convinced that Carbonneau can handle the defensive side of the Habs game. I am not, yet, convinced that the same will apply to the Habs offensive side. I'm hoping for good things from Muller, and liked the guy when he was a habs, but he has very little coaching experience, so I'm expecting him to learn on the job.

I do like the youth movement that was pushed out last season with Perezhogin, Plekanec & Higgins, but I'm unsure which will improve, which will falter, and which will stay the same. I'm almost expecting each one to fall into exactly one of those categories, as sophomore seasons are very unpredictable. Komisarek finally showed some signs of settling into the pro game in the last quarter of the season.

The team's new additions should be improvements over the players they replaced or surpassed [ie. Samsonov for Zednik, Johnson for Bulis].

Huet will be the biggest factor for the success of the Canadiens for 2006-07, and beyond. There's every indication to expect he will continue his superlative play, and having such a goalie for a whole season should give the Habs a chance at bettering their total points.

[koivu-11]

Carbo will help all elements , Miller would be there as a pep talk coach as i see since hes a winner. Also considering how close all these guys are when they played together just strengthens the team as a whole and if the coachs are close it should make the players closer.

[ch_nl]

All above is great but I think there's more.

Samsonov and Johnson. They players that makes this team complete.

[huzer]

Every offseason is full of optimism. I hope for the Habs this year it is well founded. I think the Habs are stronger, but still did not address what the team even considered its biggest need, a 2nd line C. The Habs also now have question marks on defense. Bouillon and Streit injured, and people are just assuming Cote will be able to step in.

I know speed is the new mantra of the NHL, but I still think something is to be said for grit. Look at the Sens, grit has long been a missing element of the team and they haven't been able to live up to expectactions. They've got tons of skill/speed guys. The Habs are falling into the same mold. Murray and Begin are great energy players, but guys like Ryder, Ribeiro, Samsanov, Johnson, Bonk, Kovalev, and to a lesser unkown, Perezhogin and Kostitsyn aren't guys that bring much more to the table other than skill (whether offensive or defensive). That's 8 of our 12 forwards.

I'm expecting the Habs to fair slightly better than last year, and potentially NOT be going down to the wire for a playoff spot. That said, I still expect around a 6th seed for the team, and maybe about a 4 point improvement over last year. Guys are going to get hurt, players are going to slump, and the Habs are not deep down the middle. We saw that when Koivu went down in the playoffs. If Koivu/Ribs happens to get hurt (more a when then if) Bonk doesn't have the footspeed, and that basically leaves Plekanec. And don't tell me Higgins/Johnson will move to C, not gonna happen.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Huzer's analysis seems sound to me.

We've upgraded the talent, no question. Yes, all four lines will be effective. But our core weaknesses - questionable talent at C and lack of a legitimate #2/1A D-man after Markov - remain intact. We won't be true contenders until these are addressed IMHO.

Carbo has long been touted as a great coach waiting to happen, but Gainey is also a great coach, so it's not like the team will be moving from incompetence to mastery in that department.

Young players are ALWAYS question marks and it's a mistake to base predictions on anticipated 'breakthroughs' by the Higginses and Perezhogins of the world.

So I'd say we should fall somewhere in the range of 8th to 6th place in the East. But we are now good enough to launch one of those surprise playoff runs that seem to occur every season (Carolina in 2002, Ducks in 2003, Calgary in 2004, etc.). Still, such runs are called 'surprises' for a reason - the team that makes them is not, on paper, good enough to be considered true contenders. Which is the Habs' current state.

Having said that, we're a good team and this should be a fun season, where we definitely improve on last year - I'd say Huzer is understating it a bit, and that up to 10 more points is not completely whacked, but 6 is more like it) and finally start getting respect as *potential* contenders around the league.

Edited August 2, 2006 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber

[lazy26]

Huzer's analysis seems sound to me.

We've upgraded the talent, no question. Yes, all four lines will be effective. But our core weaknesses - questionable talent at C and lack of a legitimate #2/1A D-man after Markov - remain intact. We won't be true contenders until these are addressed IMHO.

Carbo has long been touted as a great coach waiting to happen, but Gainey is also a great coach, so it's not like the team will be moving from incompetence to mastery in that department.

Young players are ALWAYS question marks and it's a mistake to base predictions on anticipated 'breakthroughs' by the Higginses and Perezhogins of the world.

So I'd say we should fall somewhere in the range of 8th to 6th place in the East. But we are now good enough to launch one of those surprise playoff runs that seem to occur every season (Carolina in 2002, Ducks in 2003, Calgary in 2004, etc.). Still, such runs are called 'surprises' for a reason - the team that makes them is not, on paper, good enough to be considered true contenders. Which is the Habs' current state.

Having said that, we're a good team and this should be a fun season, where we definitely improve on last year - I'd say Huzer is understating it a bit, and that up to 10 more points is not completely whacked, but 6 is more like it) and finally start getting respect as *potential* contenders around the league.

I could definitely see a 10-point increase... we've definitely shored up our offense, but I think the difference will lie in a) improved goaltending over last year (at least the first 2/3 of last year), and B) Markov staying healthy and not getting suspended... I expect us to achieve at least 6th seed, and as high as 4th...

[Athlétique.Canadien]

I forgot one item:

THE GAINEY FACTOR: I wouldn't be at all surprised if he pulled another rabbit out of his hat and pulled a Balej for Kovalev again at the deadline. This may alter the result of the Canadiens when all is said and done.

I wish I had a Crystal Ball to see the move but I don't.

At least we all have a "Cristobal" instead

For those of you who were upset about losing Balej - he signed in Switzerland this year. Good Job BOB!

Edited August 2, 2006 by ATHLÉTIQUE.CANADIEN

[Drivefor25]

ONE SIMPLE PHRASE......... CARBO-COACH!!!!! ENOUGH SAID

[Athlétique.Canadien]

I love reviving old threads. But, it's a happy thread. :hlogo:

How about TOMAS PLEKANEC? :hlogo:

He has excellent Speed! I'm so happy

IMO, if Jagr is a Czech Art Ross than Plekanec might be a Czech Selke. I know it sounds outlandish but it's the best example I could think of to define Tomas' playing abilties. He truly is all over the attacker like a cheap suit. He shadows BRILLIANTLY!

Gainey gave him both first and second PK duty.

Think I'm wrong? Watch him this coming season and admit your misguided mistake when he delivers.

I think we might be in for a surprise.

HAIL PLEKS! :king: :hlogo:

Edited August 23, 2006 by ATHLÉTIQUE.CANADIEN

[BTH]

IMO these are the main reasons and ways that we've improved in.

1) New coach, better coach - a coach that fits our style better. The new staff should be succesful.

2) New goalies. True, Huet isn't proven but no matter whether we use Huet or Aebishcer, he can't be worse than Theo was last season. Theodore must have dropped atleast half a dozen games last year on his own. There were other that he sucked in but the team sucked too so I won't count them. The point - NOT throwing 6 games thrown down the drain is a good start.

3) Johnson > Zednik. Johnson is more willing to go to the net and he has a right shot, which suits our team better. He'd also be more willing to play on a lower line and is defensively responsible, with a good attitude.

4) Samsonov >>> Bulis. Samsonov will likely not play a full season but we can expect greta things from him when he's here. He also has a right show and he finally completes the #2 LW position that was filled by Pierre Dagenais this time last season. Samsonov is also fast and a shifty playmaker. Should be greta fun to watch with Kovy.

5) Ribeiro - he can't get any worse, can he? I expect more than he showed last year. Especially with the linemates he's got.

6) Higgins had a slow start but then developed into a greta garbage goal scorer in the second half of the season. Well now, we have Second-Half Higgins for the entire year - and he'll probably get even better near the end. Plekanec has plenty of untapped potential in him. If Ribeiro doesn't perform than Plekanec can easily become our new #2 center. Perezhogin didn't exactly exceed expectations last year. Let's see what he can do.

7) The new rookie - whoever it is, whether Kostitsyn, Lapierre, Chipchura, Grabovsky or Latendresse. Any one will help out our team.

8) The whole attitude of the team has improved with Theodore and Dagenais leaving.

9) Ryder isn't hurt. We can hope for another 30 goal season from him.

10) Gainey will undoutedbly make moves along the season. He'll probably bring in a pretty big name at the deadline to help us make a playoff push.

Well, I'm in a hurry so I rushed through that but that's the brief brief version.

[The-Habby2919]

I can see Pleks wearing an A in 4 years or so.

:hlogo:

[MAK]

I can see Pleks wearing an A in 4 years or so.

:hlogo:

he's our sleeper this year

[The Saint]

:ninja: What a fun thread! Nice work folks. I tend to agree with many of the comments so far, especially those relating to our upgraded team compared to last year at this time.

Just imagine, no wonder we were feeling so awkward about last year's team with Dagenais, Bulis and Zed counted on to provide much of the secondary/primary offense.

It's easy to be optimistic with our young players reaching potential more quickly than we were used to for the past many years. And I say screw the sophopmore jinx, I don't buy it, not with great coaching and proper roles for these young guys (see Ryder), which I honestly feel we'll have with our coaching staff.

I do feel like our weaknesses have diminished over the past few years, not to say that a top C and another solid D man wouldn't help, but there are a lot less holes to fill than in previous seasons.

Go Habs Go - and only a few weeks until Training Camp...I just pee'd a little right there...A new season with my new daughter, bring on Les Mechants Mardi! Awesome!

Peace!

:ninja:

[markierung]

We've got 2 X-FACTOR'S, this season: Ribeiro and Komisarek

IF ribs can develop into the playmaking C it looked like he would become a few years ago and Komi becomes feared for his hitting, i really think we stand a chance at the division.

[Huckleberry]

All I am going to predict is this: the Habs make it into the playoffs this year without any of the last two week dramatics.

I am not sure they have the size (yet) to plug through an entire playoff.

Remeber, it is the hardest trophy to win.

Of course, I would love to be wrong and BOB knows more than I.

[Chuko]

Let me first say that I think the Habs could have a potentially awesome team this year. Yes, I tend to be on the optimistic side at the start of a new season, but I`ll try to raise a few question marks as to why the Habs season might not be as great as I think it will be.

1- Carbo is a rookie coach. I loved him as a player, believe he could be a very good coach, but he remains nonetheless a big question mark.

2- Koivu and Ribs as our top two centers is rather weak. I`ve always believed in Ribeiro`s playmaking abilities and his potential, but this is definitely his last chance with the Habs. I think it will be his breakout year, but this is also a big question mark. Koivu: I hate to say this because I really like the guy, but he`s not an NHL #1 centreman. Not consistent enough in his offensive production. I hope he has a great year, but my fingers are crossed.

3- Huet. I believe he`s the real deal but this will be his first shot at beginning an NHL season as a #1 goalie. I have confidence in him, but he is nonetheless another question mark.

4- Grit and size. Not enough of it, particularly on the enforcer front. Ok, some people will say that in today`s NHL you don`t need an enforcer. I disagree. Just having a heavyweight present that keeps other teams in line allows your skilled players to do their thing. We just don`t have that.

Other than that, I think we`re definitely on the right track and I think the future looks bright. All this being said, here`s my prediction:

- Ribeiro finally gets it, grows up, gets serious, and has a career year between Sammy and Kovy. He finishes the season as the Habs top scorer with 82 points.

- Huet is the real deal and leads the league in shutouts and GAA behind the Habs great defensive team play.

- The rookies (or sophomores for that matter) breakout and the future looks better than ever.

- Habs finish first in the division and first in the conference.

You heard it right here.

[CoRvInA]

I agree with you all... the difference with last year's off season was that we expected more out of Zed, Dags, RIbs Bonk Dandy Ryder, Streit,... (or they were X factors) and we were hoping it was wake up time for Hossa and whats his name that we lost to The Blue jAckets... among others ..

whats different now?

We have gotten rid of Dags and Zednick has been replaced with a player that cannot on paper be worse than what Zed did last season (im talking about Sammy of course) and we have grounded our expectations regarding Bonk and Dandy (have accepted their levels of play and roles) Ryder has also been grounded out .. a potential defensive liability that can score 30 goals or more and an oportunistic scorer at that with a PP role... perfect Im okay with that ..... only X factor left here is Ribs ( Probability of waking up? I say 95% Prob of playing his role? 75% how much time does Ribs have to achieve all of this? first half of the season at most and if his performance is top notch he has 90% chance of being part of a trade... 10% chance of him staying only if He completely baffles us and fulfills his DESTINY hehe overdone it there

of course Johnson is there.... I think if he plays like Bonk does defensively but scores 10 points more that's it ( personally I would bet my arse that Mr Bonkers goes Bonkers!) just u wait and see

on the rookie side ... the trade for hossa got us a gritty 3/4 Stevie Begin (Murray)... Higgins and Plek played to the level of expectations and perhaps more ... only X factor Perez But good chances that with will the addition of more Soviet blood we wake up our Perez and potentially our Kosty and co. In total This looks good!

On the D side Komi and Streit were the X factors... as for Komi we've accepted he wont ever become a Lidstrom but he can be a PAIN IN THE ARSE to our opponents... he can only get better! Streit on the other hand is our biggest X factor which shows you how poor we are in this department now I think Gainey just wants him to be healthy and gain confidence and at least come out positive compared to last year.

Souray RIvet Bouillon dandy are 3-6 dmen... Im okay with that...But Markov cannot be the only top 2 D in our roster We havent forgotten what happened when Markov was out? we need someone new (bob knows this) None of the previously mentioned will ever take up that role... only posibility is Cote O'byrne Archer to reach 60% of Markov's role and for that we would need 2 of them to fo that... chances of that happening 40% for each so even less if this happens twice...

Goalie what can I say... with those two! talk about safety nets in case one of them gets mindcramps... and Denis is not far back just in case

So in terms of Probabilty its quite good! Defensively we are stretching it quite thin and we all know that... Coaching staff X factors all around but 75% they do a great Job ...90% chance they do a sufficient enough job!

The only topic that makes me nervous is how well will Koivu recup!!! Biggest X factor in the off season IMO besides Gainey getting some help at D

[Drivefor25]

1- Carbo is a rookie coach. I loved him as a player, believe he could be a very good coach, but he remains nonetheless a big question mark.

3- Huet. I believe he`s the real deal but this will be his first shot at beginning an NHL season as a #1 goalie. I have confidence in him, but he is nonetheless another question mark.

4- Grit and size. Not enough of it, particularly on the enforcer front. Ok, some people will say that in today`s NHL you don`t need an enforcer. I disagree. Just having a heavyweight present that keeps other teams in line allows your skilled players to do their thing. We just don`t have that.

All this being said, here`s my prediction:

- Ribeiro finally gets it, grows up, gets serious, and has a career year between Sammy and Kovy. He finishes the season as the Habs top scorer with 82 points.

- Huet is the real deal and leads the league in shutouts and GAA behind the Habs great defensive team play.

- The rookies (or sophomores for that matter) breakout and the future looks better than ever.

You heard it right here.

The things I left from your post Chuko are very key, however i'd like to put a spin on some of what you said...

Point 1) Carbo by title is a rookie coach, but who do you think really led the Habs in 2002?? It wasn't Therrien, I mean look at Pittsburgh and Wilkes Barrie, well not so much the latter but you get what I mean. Therrien only showed emotion when Maclaren elbowed Zed. That was the most emotion he ever showed, was during that throat slashing gesture.

Point 3) Huet, I think this guy feeds off the crowd. That said, I think he's been dying for this season to start since the Habs got eliminated and the crowd was still chanting his name even after the players left the ice. He'll be just as good if not better. I'm thinking Brian Bouchers' longest shutout streak is going to be obliterated by Huet.

Point 4) Grit and size: one word Begin! This guy is like a small dog, doesn't realize how small he is and will deliberately go after the biggest dog in the yard.

As for Ribs getting 82 points???? I'd love to see it, but I just don't think he has the staying power. Someone will hit the 80 mark but I feel it's going to be either Kovalev or Perezhogin, possibly even Latendresse ( that is if he drops the attitude he had during the world juniors)

Huet = Vezina and Hart trophy and dare I say it Conn Smythe

Last but not least the rookies.... I'm feeling the Calder trophy.

One last thing, I know this is wishfull thinking and all but If the Habs do it this year and end the cup drought I'm calling Guy Carbonneau for the Jack Adams trophy.

:hlogo: GO HABS GO :hlogo:

Edited August 23, 2006 by Drivefor25

[Mont Royale]

Point 1) Carbo by title is a rookie coach, but who do you think really led the Habs in 2002?? It wasn't Therrien, I mean look at Pittsburgh and Wilkes Barrie, well not so much the latter but you get what I mean. Therrien only showed emotion when Maclaren elbowed Zed. That was the most emotion he ever showed, was during that throat slashing gesture.

Therrien's emotions were on display fairly regularly, as I recall... most infamously during the series against Carolina, leading to a bench minor. In any case, public displays of emotion aren't necessary to win hockey games, as Bob showed last season.

[gohabsgo252006]

Great thread, it's nice to look at the positive as opposed to the negative for once. I agree with almomst everything posted thus far. This team is better, how much?? we'll have to wait to see.

I do think there are 2 things that in my opinion nobody has mentioned or i skipped their post.

1. I think having a coach that is comfortable in his job from day 1, where Julien seemed to be worrying only about today for fear of getting fired, will have a very good impact in terms of consistency and confidence. I think players will be given their shot and time to adapt, a system will be in place from day 1. There will not be be feuding with goalies or shortening of the bench in game 2 of the season.

2. Goaltending: Whereas most of you pointed to the actual goaltending I'm thinking of it's effect on the confidence of the team. How many times last year did THEO let in a horrid goal late in a game or start one off giving up 2 or 3 within a few minutes. That just killed the confidence of the players and created such an up and down season.

I think the changes of Bulis, Zed and Sundstrom out and Samsonov and Johnson in, brings character and players who will not complain about not being on a top 2 line. I also feel and I'll add this as #3 is that we now finally have some young guns that can step right in in case of injury. Last year anytime someone was hurt, we would call up a player and have them play 2 shifts. I don't think this will be the case this year.

With Kostytsin, Chipchura, Lapierre, Grabovsky, Cote and O'byrne we have players who can step into any spot in the lineup.

I sure am excited.

[Drivefor25]

Therrien's emotions were on display fairly regularly, as I recall... most infamously during the series against Carolina, leading to a bench minor. In any case, public displays of emotion aren't necessary to win hockey games, as Bob showed last season.

Very true, but at the same time comparing THE BOB to Therrien is like making change for a 3$ bill. Gainey has no need to show emotion because of what he did during his career. I'm just saying it would of been nice to see Therrien get a little more involved than what he did.