Signing Habs sign Jack Nevins

[DON]

It doesn't matter the order. The were picking at the bottom of the first round and beginning of the 2nd. If McCarron turns out to be a 3rd liner who hits, plays physical drops them sometimes and get reach 40 points i'll be happy.

Fucale and De La Rose were both rated in the first round and the habs got them as well.

I actually think they did really well with those 3 picks.

As you both say, time will tell.

I think de la Rose will be a NHLer and Fucale looks very good and they took a home run swing with the big guy and Dudley/Bergevin/Timmins know a bit more than I do and I agree, time will tell and give the kid a couple years to work on his skating and in the gym and he may be a power forward of some sort?

[Chris]

I think all 3 will make the NHL, Don't know the impact offensively and goalies are tough to predict.

I also don't get to see the young players play or have the knowledge you and commandant do but a lot of "experts" really liked those 3 players.

[Commandant]

The same "experts" who loved Tyler Biggs and Kyle Beach.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

I think all 3 will make the NHL, Don't know the impact offensively and goalies are tough to predict.

I also don't get to see the young players play or have the knowledge you and commandant do but a lot of "experts" really liked those 3 players.

It's good to recognize that Commandant pretty much made it clear that if McCarron doesn't hit 30 goals and 60 points he's a bust. He isn't particularly playing a fair evaluation because, as I said originally, he's always going to be glass half empty on a prospect he didn't like.

[Commandant]

It's good to recognize that Commandant pretty much made it clear that if McCarron doesn't hit 30 goals and 60 points he's a bust. He isn't particularly playing a fair evaluation because, as I said originally, he's always going to be glass half empty on a prospect he didn't like.

He doesn't have to hit those levels, but at this point he doesn't even look like he'll be capable of 20 goals or 40 points. If you can't get that out of a first round pick, I think its unsucessful.

You know I loved the Chipchura pick at the time, but that is an unsucessful first rounder despite the fact he is still an NHL player. You should be aiming for a top 6 forward, a top 4 defenceman, or a #1 goalie with your first rounders.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

but at this point

13 in 143.

What's 13 in 143?

The amount of goals Max Pacioretty scored in 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 between the AHL and NHL and how many games played.

Pacioretty was the guy I learned to be patient on. You're giving up AT THIS POINT before McCarron makes it out of the OHL.

Hopefully that kind of makes it clear that, even if you end up right, it's ridiculous to be diminishing McCarron's projections this early.

[comfortfablyHABS]

If McCarron ends up being a NHL regular with 20 - 30 points per season, I'd say this is a pretty successful pick.

[habs rule]

If McCarron ends up being a NHL regular with 20 - 30 points per season, I'd say this is a pretty successful pick.

I think his potential is much higher than that, and some of the bigger guys seem to take longer to develop. I would not be giving up on him for quite a while, in my opinion lets look 4 years down the road.

[comfortfablyHABS]

I think his potential is much higher than that, and some of the bigger guys seem to take longer to develop. I would not be giving up on him for quite a while, in my opinion lets look 4 years down the road.

I agree with you. All I am saying is that even if he is 4th line guy with 20 point year, I would say this is a successful pick for the amount of hits and hustle he will generate.

[DON]

He doesn't have to hit those levels, but at this point he doesn't even look like he'll be capable of 20 goals or 40 points. If you can't get that out of a first round pick, I think its unsucessful.

You know I loved the Chipchura pick at the time, but that is an unsucessful first rounder despite the fact he is still an NHL player. You should be aiming for a top 6 forward, a top 4 defenceman, or a #1 goalie with your first rounders.

I also was a big Chipchura fan. Nice to see he is making a living in NHL.

[DON]

I think his potential is much higher than that, and some of the bigger guys seem to take longer to develop. I would not be giving up on him for quite a while, in my opinion lets look 4 years down the road.

Glad you r so optimistic, but I have serious doubts. Hope Timmons is bang on and I am out to lunch?

[dlbalr]

In an effort to bring this back on topic, I'll note here that if anyone wants to see Nevins (the player who this thread was originally about), his Charlottetown squad is on Sportsnet's game of the week tomorrow against Blaineville-Boisbriand. Puck drop is at 7 on SNET East, Ontario, West, and Pacific.

[Commandant]

I agree with you. All I am saying is that even if he is 4th line guy with 20 point year, I would say this is a successful pick for the amount of hits and hustle he will generate.

I would not say that a fourth liner is a successful pick in the first round.

You can sign fourth liners in free agency every single year. You can pick up a Prust or a Moen, or a guy like that and they don't cost much.

You need to fill a top line spot, there aren't many guys in free agency and they cost a heck of a lot more. If that is what you are doing with your first rounders, you are setting yourself up for a lot more work getting under the cap.

Getting guys who can fill top 6 roles, top 4 on D, or number 1 G... while on ELCs and Bridge Deals should be the goal in drafting, especially with early picks.

I think his potential is much higher than that, and some of the bigger guys seem to take longer to develop. I would not be giving up on him for quite a while, in my opinion lets look 4 years down the road.

While those bigger guys take longer to develop at the pro level.... with the exception of Lucic, they all score at the junior level.

13 in 143.

What's 13 in 143?

The amount of goals Max Pacioretty scored in 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 between the AHL and NHL and how many games played.

Pacioretty was the guy I learned to be patient on. You're giving up AT THIS POINT before McCarron makes it out of the OHL.

Hopefully that kind of makes it clear that, even if you end up right, it's ridiculous to be diminishing McCarron's projections this early.

AHL and NHL is different, it can take time for a kid when he's playing against men. When playing against his own age group, a future scorer will dominate in most cases.

Pacioretty was a PPG guy as a freshman at Michigan, made the US WJC team, and played well in that tournament. Against his own age group he was an offensive force.

A big forward can take time to learn to effectively use his size against other big players. McCarron is a man amongst boys in the OHL, his sheer size advantage will never be bigger than it is right now where most kids need to put on muscle and are still growing. He should be dominating the game along the boards and in front of the net. He should be unstoppable when he drives to the net with the puck, and controlling the cycle game. He's not... far from it.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

I would not say that a fourth liner is a successful pick in the first round.

You can sign fourth liners in free agency every single year. You can pick up a Prust or a Moen, or a guy like that and they don't cost much.

You need to fill a top line spot, there aren't many guys in free agency and they cost a heck of a lot more. If that is what you are doing with your first rounders, you are setting yourself up for a lot more work getting under the cap.

Getting guys who can fill top 6 roles, top 4 on D, or number 1 G... while on ELCs and Bridge Deals should be the goal in drafting, especially with early picks.

While those bigger guys take longer to develop at the pro level.... with the exception of Lucic, they all score at the junior level.

It's extremely rare to get top players in the 25-30 spot of the draft:

2001: n/a

2002: Cam Ward

2003: Corey Perry

2004: Corey Schneider, Mike Green

2005: n/a

2006: Patrik Berglund

2007: David Perron

2008: n/a

2009: n/a

2010: Evgeny Kuznetsov if he ever comes to the NHL

But yes, continue to apply pressure to the McCarron pick like we would to Alex Galchenyuk.

[Commandant]

He doesn't have to be Galchenyuk.

You only picked top line guys.... I'm saying at least a 2nd line guy or top 4 D.... also look at least 10 picks past the spot.

Add to your list, Derek Roy 32nd overall (2001) considered undersized.

Loui Eriksson 33rd overall (2003)

Jeff Schultz 2004 (was a top pairing defenceman for a couple years, Id rather have a top guy for 2 years than a fourth liner for 10).

Dave Bolland 2004

Niskanen (top 4 D), Downie (scored over 20 goals), Neal, Vlasic 2005

Foligno, 2006

Brendan Smith 2007

JOhn Carlson, Tyler Ennis, Jacob Markstrom, Jake Allen 2008

Simon Despres, Ryan O'Reilly, 2009

Charlie Coyle, Brock Nelson, Emerson Etem, 2010

So its quite a bit bigger.

All I'm saying is don't limit yourself in drafting early. Yes players bust, but given the salary cap, and the fact that top line guys are just not making it to free agency (and when they do they are overpaid) you should swing for the fences with early picks. Yes some players bust. But I'd rather have David Fisher, Mathieu Carle, and PK Subban instead of Kyle Chipchura, Brian Boyle, and David Steckel.

Swing for the fences instead of making the "safe pick". The McCarron pick is the epitome of the "safe pick" drafting philosophy that I absolutely loathe. Take a riskier player with huge upside and hope to develop him, instead of him. And those guys were there, in Erne, in Compher, in Zykov, in a number of other possible guys who have shown high end skill to score.

The other issue is that even those so called "safe picks" can bust, and they do. With a lower ceiling its easier to see the third line safe pick become Mike Blunden were if a potential top 6er doesn't reach that level, he might still end up a third liner, or a fourth.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

If we're including players between 31-40 then we fit the perception that most seem to have noticed immediately on draft day that it really didn't matter who Montreal drafted with their first, second or third pick. They were all around the same area and have around the same expectations. Had it been:

25th Overall: Zach Fucale

34th Overall: Jacob de la Rose

36th Overall: Michael McCarron

We wouldn't be having this discussion. But you're putting so much weight on it being a first round pick.

Also, make up your mind on what you want McCarron to be. First it was comparing him with 30 goal and 60 point players and comparing him to Lucic. Now he can be a Nick Foligno, with a career high 17 goals and a 47 point season. Are you now saying if McCarron scored 17 goals you'd be fine with the pick?

[DON]

Sorry to keep off topic,

de la Rose @25 would of smart, he seems like a fine young player and look forward to world juniors. Fucale is a goalie and total crapshoot, need goalie scouts to justify his slotting, but McCarron was not on my radar or wish-list for even being a top-60 and I saw several skilled kids and numerous defensive d-man I would of taken long before him (like, Santini, Compher, Klimchuk, Erne, Petan, Bjorkstrand, McCoshen, Zykov).

But, is moot and hope McCarron can develop well, and he, Crisp and Nevins can help stop all the whining about all-important size BS.

[Commandant]

If we're including players between 31-40 then we fit the perception that most seem to have noticed immediately on draft day that it really didn't matter who Montreal drafted with their first, second or third pick. They were all around the same area and have around the same expectations. Had it been:

25th Overall: Zach Fucale

34th Overall: Jacob de la Rose

36th Overall: Michael McCarron

We wouldn't be having this discussion. But you're putting so much weight on it being a first round pick.

Also, make up your mind on what you want McCarron to be. First it was comparing him with 30 goal and 60 point players and comparing him to Lucic. Now he can be a Nick Foligno, with a career high 17 goals and a 47 point season. Are you now saying if McCarron scored 17 goals you'd be fine with the pick?

I gave the 30 goal threshold because that is the work that has been done in looking at CHL players and stats.

If he's a 17 goal 45+ point guy then yes he can fill in as a second line forward.

But here's foligno's stats at the same age as McCarron, ... 88 points in 66 games.

Generally speaking the numbers show, that almost all forwards (like in the range of 98%+) who become top 6 players in the NHL, were scoring at over 1 PPG when they were in their post-draft season in the CHL.

Heck even third and fourth liners like Ryan White, Max Lapierre, Brandon Prust, Nick Kypreos, Mike Blunden, and others are darn good scorers at 18 and 19 years old in the CHL.

Thats the concern.

There isn't a large number of guys who are scoring .3, or .4 PPG in the CHL at McCarron's age who become impact NHL forwards. Heck at that level of scoring, it just doesn't happen, even with 4th liners unless they are named John Scott.

As for the order, I had McCarron at 60. I wouldn't have taken him even at 36. I wouldn't have taken him before the Connor Crisp pick.

[dlbalr]

So, once again regarding Nevins, I saw him for the first time in that game on Sportsnet. I wasn't too impressed. His skating is a bit better than I thought but he only provided max effort in the offensive zone; he often coasted/floated when getting back in transition. He also seemed to make a concerted effort to stay as far away from the puck as possible in his own end. His instincts aren't too great either, he's far more of a reactive-type player than an anticipatory one. On the plus side, he does play physical and absorbs hits well and I suspect those are the elements the team was focusing on when they signed him. Hopefully it was just a down game for him.

[DON]

So, once again regarding Nevins, I saw him for the first time in that game on Sportsnet. I wasn't too impressed. His skating is a bit better than I thought but he only provided max effort in the offensive zone; he often coasted/floated when getting back in transition. He also seemed to make a concerted effort to stay as far away from the puck as possible in his own end. His instincts aren't too great either, he's far more of a reactive-type player than an anticipatory one. On the plus side, he does play physical and absorbs hits well and I suspect those are the elements the team was focusing on when they signed him. Hopefully it was just a down game for him.

Just saw bit of game and he made some good contact and planted himself in front of net.

Almost seemed he was not getting top minutes at all.

But he is 2nd in team scoring and basically leads team in +/- and PIMs, so he must be more involved in most games?