tomh009 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The Athletic posted a set of "player cards" for the Habs (as well as the other 31 teams). The interesting bit is the projected market value, using Dom L's model. None of us will agree with all of these, but they are interesting nonetheless. Suzuki $4.8M market value ($0.9M actual contract) Toffoli $7.9M ($4.3) Gallagher $7.2M ($6.5M) Caufield $0.1M ($0.1M) Dvorak $3.4M ($4.5M) Drouin $2.0M ($5.5M) Hoffman $4.1M ($4.5M) Anderson $1.9M ($5.5M) Evans $1.6M ($0.8M) Lehkonen $4.0M ($2.3M) Perreault $1.9M ($1.0M) Armia $1.4M ($3.4M) Petry $5.7M ($6.3M) Edmundson $3.7M ($3.5M) Chiarot $0.8M ($3.5M) Savard -$0.9M ($3.5M) Romanov $0.8M ($0.9M) Wideman $3.9M ($0.8M) Price $2.2M ($10.5M) Allen $3.1M ($2.9M) https://theathletic.com/3062514/2022/01/12/nhl-player-cards-montreal-canadiens/ How many GMs give credence to this model is anyone's guess, but Toffoli and Suzuki being at the top of the value list is no surprise to me. Many players' values have been dragged down by the team's poor play this year. so I'm surprised to see Gallagher at $7.2M. Wideman is the other huge surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pepsi Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Is the negative 0.9M for Savard correct? I know he is bad but how do they calculate negative? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Pepsi said: Is the negative 0.9M for Savard correct? I know he is bad but how do they calculate negative? Yeah, that's how their model works. The model says the Habs would be better playing four-on-five instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pepsi Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That says alot. I think we should have a few guys like that then😡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, tomh009 said: Yeah, that's how their model works. The model says the Habs would be better playing four-on-five instead. 😆 There is no way that Chiarot is a $0.8. That seems like a pretty egregious result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: There is no way that Chiarot is a $0.8. That seems like a pretty egregious result. He's not a fan of stay-at-home defencemen and it's no shocker that his models also feature that particular bias. Does anyone really think Chris Wideman has played at near a $4M level? Of course not. But he's a more modern puck-mover so that's worth a lot to him. Gallagher's is artificially skewed due to possession numbers and isn't an accurate representation of his current abilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: There is no way that Chiarot is a $0.8. That seems like a pretty egregious result. Chiarot was projected as +0.8 GSVA (I think this basically means 0.8 additional wins) but he's projected at -0.3 this year. His performance has certainly suffered given that he's ended up playing with Savard. Wideman was -0.5 three years ago (his last NHL season) but is projected at +0.7 this year. Maybe he would actually have non-trivial trade value at deadline? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, tomh009 said: Wideman was -0.5 three years ago (his last NHL season) but is projected at +0.7 this year. Maybe he would actually have non-trivial trade value at deadline? His contract makes him appealing. But his reputation around the league isn't the greatest (and it's not just the Ottawa Uber incident) which might limit his suitors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, dlbalr said: His contract makes him appealing. But his reputation around the league isn't the greatest (and it's not just the Ottawa Uber incident) which might limit his suitors. GMs are often more forgiving with pending UFAs at the deadline ... I expect the list of teams looking to sign Evander Kane now will be much longer than those looking to sign him this summer (unless he has a great end of season, assuming he is eventually allowed to sign). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 hours ago, tomh009 said: The Athletic posted a set of "player cards" for the Habs (as well as the other 31 teams). The interesting bit is the projected market value, using Dom L's model. None of us will agree with all of these, but they are interesting nonetheless. Suzuki $4.8M market value ($0.9M actual contract) Toffoli $7.9M ($4.3) Gallagher $7.2M ($6.5M) Caufield $0.1M ($0.1M) Dvorak $3.4M ($4.5M) Drouin $2.0M ($5.5M) Hoffman $4.1M ($4.5M) Anderson $1.9M ($5.5M) Evans $1.6M ($0.8M) Lehkonen $4.0M ($2.3M) Perreault $1.9M ($1.0M) Armia $1.4M ($3.4M) Petry $5.7M ($6.3M) Edmundson $3.7M ($3.5M) Chiarot $0.8M ($3.5M) Savard -$0.9M ($3.5M) Romanov $0.8M ($0.9M) Wideman $3.9M ($0.8M) Price $2.2M ($10.5M) Allen $3.1M ($2.9M) https://theathletic.com/3062514/2022/01/12/nhl-player-cards-montreal-canadiens/ How many GMs give credence to this model is anyone's guess, but Toffoli and Suzuki being at the top of the value list is no surprise to me. Many players' values have been dragged down by the team's poor play this year. so I'm surprised to see Gallagher at $7.2M. Wideman is the other huge surprise. Ok, let's have fun with this. To trade: Toffoli $7.9M ($4.25) = great value Armia $1.4M ($3.4M) = bad contract Petry $5.7M ($6.3M) = bad contract, good for cup contending team like Oilers Chiarot $0.8M ($3.5M) = surprised on the low market value, good for cup contending team like Oilers Wideman $3.9M ($0.75M) = surprised on the high market value, great value to a team like Coyotes New core, including some BAD contracts and some GOOD contracts: Drouin $2.0M ($5.5M) - Dvorak $3.4M ($4.45M) - Gallagher $7.2M ($6.5M) Hoffman $4.1M ($4.5M) - Suzuki $4.8M market value ($7.875M starting in 2022) - Anderson $1.9M ($5.5M) Lehkonen $4.0M ($2.3M) - Evans $1.6M ($0.8M) - Ylonen? or Caufield $0.1M ($0.1M)? Pezzetta $---M ($0.75M) - Poehling $---M ($0.75M) - Dauphin $---M ($0.75M) Edmundson $3.7M ($3.5M) - Savard -$0.9M ($3.5M) Romanov $0.8M ($0.9M) - <<NEW RD>> Niku $---M ($0.75M) - Clague $---M ($0.761M) Price $2.2M ($10.5M) Allen $3.1M ($2.9M) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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