simonus Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 2008 PECOTA predictions: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ AL East (as most people on the board here seem to be AL East fans) NYY: 97-65 Bos: 91-71 TB: 88-74 Tor: 78-84 Bal: 66-96 thoughts? I have watched PECOTA predictions for long enough to not throw them away without considerations. For those of you who do not know, PECOTA is the prediction supercomputer down at baseball prospectus. It uses historical comparison of players (comparing on a variety of metrics, including relative era and age) to figure out their contributions to the team. This includes guesses at injury time, platooning, and good old OBP and SLG. I'm a bit confused as to how PECOTA sees NYY giving up 21 fewer runs than my sox, but so it goes. I think this probably has a lot to do with 3 of the pitchers in the rotation being in their 2nd year and a huge demerit for Wakefield (for being old) and Colon (for having been injured). This is not completely unreasonable, but my fan blinders tell me the sox have the better pitching. The position-by-position defense on the sox is definitely better than the yanks, especially in the infield, but I assume the RA number has more to do with pitching. I wonder if PECOTA thought Joba would be a starter... I guess the more interesting predictions come in the 3-4 spots. They have TB shooting up 16 wins over last year - based (one must assume) on a vastly improved defense, BJ Upton and Scott Kazmir getting better. I think it is a bit overoptimistic - I wouldn't be surprised if the rays start the season hot and flame out a bit after the all-star break, especially if they feel the need to trade away players because of contract issues (I don't know their cost control status, but they seem to have a very low tolerance for added cost). The Toronto prediction is the one I'm sure will cause the most acrimony here. I am a bit less knowledgeable about the jays and would be interested to see what people here say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 TB that good? no way. Toronto will win 90 games if they stay healthy. God if TB is awesome this year and so are the Blue Jays along with the Yankees and Boston. Time to add a second wild card. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 TB that good? no way. Toronto will win 90 games if they stay healthy. God if TB is awesome this year and so are the Blue Jays along with the Yankees and Boston. Time to add a second wild card. please state actual reasons? Like reasons to disagree with PECOTA.. (they may exist, but you haven't enunciated any of them) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Toronto has pitching, defence now, and power. They can just never seem to stay healthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Toronto has pitching, defence now, and power. They can just never seem to stay healthy. how much of your opinion is predicated on McGowan? PECOTA has pretty fair predictions for Halladay(4.06 ERA) and Burnett (3.83 ERA), IMO. the only (somewhat) controversial pick is McGowan(4.60), but I think you can only swing them a max of ~4-5 games based on that. Has their offense gotten so much better? can you see them scoring over 800 runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quebecois Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 I misread it at first and saw Tor with the 88-74 haha. Can't say i agree with the predictions for a number of reasons. Last year we finished with 83 wins and had over 1,000 man games lost to injury. Theres some injury prone players on the roster, no doubt, but to think we will reach that total again is a little bit absurd. Vernon Wells played hurt the entire year last year and had his worst as a pro by far. I'm expecting him to return close to 06 form, so OPS around .850-.900, 30 dingers, 100+ RBI and one of the best CFs in the AL. Rios will either continue to break out or remain the same, i cant see his numbers going down from last year even with a pessimestic view on things. I think he can hit 30 or even 35 homers, but im always on the optmistic side of things. The projected ERAs are extremely confusing, especially the Halladay one. Doc is one of the biggest ground ball pitchers in baseball, and we added a gold glove third basemen to the fold. Sure we lose a bit having Eckstein in at SS instead of MacDonald, but i expect Mac will see his fair share of Halladay games, along with late inning defensive replacement (Doc is often around in the late innings, 7 CGs last year and it could have been 10 or 11 if the offense helped him out). Halladay got beat up on 2 or 3 occasions (2 of them were right around his appendicitis injury). If it wasnt for those 2 or 3 starts his ERA is probably low 3s or even high 2s (havent done the math here so i might be a little off). The McGowan prediction is also really odd to me. The guy had a .230 BAA and a 1.22 WHIP. He was always a pitcher who couldnt seem to put it together but everyone agreed he had electric stuff. Now that he puts it together his ERA is supposed to spike over half a run? Doesn't add up to me. I don't see how we finish 5 games worse than last year unless injuries ravage the team again, but like you said, Baseball Prospectus makes good predictions so its hard to simply dismiss it. I see the divison as 1. Sox 2. Jays 3. Yanks 4. Rays 5. Orioles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quebecois Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 They also have the Tigers scoring 50 less runs than last year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fanpuck33 Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Where are you getting individual predictions? You a subscriber? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 to bolster your arguments Quebecois: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/...ck_go_trade.php Where are you getting individual predictions? You a subscriber? I have been, but I need to renew. I got the numbers I cited from an article on Deadspin, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 how much of your opinion is predicated on McGowan? PECOTA has pretty fair predictions for Halladay(4.06 ERA) and Burnett (3.83 ERA), IMO. the only (somewhat) controversial pick is McGowan(4.60), but I think you can only swing them a max of ~4-5 games based on that. Has their offense gotten so much better? can you see them scoring over 800 runs? It depends. The team never has really played to its potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
les_glorieux Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez will earn US$28 million this season, $6.2 million more than the entire Florida Marlins roster. Wtf is wrong with this league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 red sox have the 4th highest payroll in baseball http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/reds...rop_to_4th.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 2008 payroll $209.1 NYY $138.7 DET $138.3 NYM $133.4 BOS $121.2 CHIW $119.2 LAA $118.6 CHIC $118.5 LAD $118 SEA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quebecois Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 You guys read any good baseball books lately? I read Moneyball a little while ago, and just picked up The Baseball Economist by JC Bradbury. Mostly looking for books about stats since im a bit of a nerd like that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafikz Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 I miss the Expos :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 You guys read any good baseball books lately? I read Moneyball a little while ago, and just picked up The Baseball Economist by JC Bradbury. Mostly looking for books about stats since im a bit of a nerd like that... "baseball between the numbers" and the 2008 Baseball Prospectus are pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quebecois Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 Yeah ive heard good things about Baseball between the numbers. Jays once again cant cash anyone, story of last season and the story today in the opener. Makes for a very frustrating experience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 Predictions Cardinals will win 67 games. lol Blue Jays 90 Mariners 87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 Predictions Cardinals will win 67 games. lol Blue Jays 90 Mariners 87 you are remarkably bullish on the Mariners, imo. I doubt the Cards are that bad - they play in a really weak division. How much of this are you basing on a regression from Ankiel? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fanpuck33 Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 you are remarkably bullish on the Mariners, imo. He's not alone, I've heard quite a few analysts predicting great things out of them. I think a lot of it stems from overrating Erik Bedard, who only has one stellar season under his belt, and has never pitched more than 200 innings in a season. I think a 1.25 WHIP and 3.75 ERA will be much more realistic expectations than the 1.09 and 3.16 numbers he posted last season, before getting hurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 I'm not basing the Cardinals on any prospects but just how the whole organization is run and that a meltdown year was going to happen. DeWitt is destroying the team and the fans don't seem to notice. Jocketty is gone, replaced by a yes man for DeWitt. Ballpark village fell through, so the local area is depressed over that. The team is just Pujols and that's it. I haven't listened to a Cardinals game since they switched to a weak station away from KMOX. A Buck doesn't do any games anymore (joe used to do home games on tv for fsn). For the first time since I've been around, the Cardinals didn't even have an opening day. No Bob Gibson, Stan the Man etc. (because of the wash out). The stadium wasn't even full for "opening day part 2". The passion for the team isn't there, and I don't even have to be in the St. Louis area at the moment to feel it. Cardinals had a good run, now its back to medicore-ness. Burwell summed it up best today in the Post: http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/co...B8?OpenDocument Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mils Posted April 2, 2008 Share Posted April 2, 2008 (edited) Firing up the 2008 edition of the Colorado Rockies bandwagon. Everybody hop on now, because you don't want to admit you were entirely wrong about them two years in a row. 88-74 Second in the NL West to the Dodgers (90-72), NL Wild Card once again. NL Pennant: NY Mets, in a 7 game thriller over the Rockies, with Johan Santana throwing a lights-out 2 hitter in game 7. Edited April 2, 2008 by Mils Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 38k showed up at Busch III last night. First time they haven't had a sell out. a song that will represent the cardinals season: http://www.actionext.com/names_t/the_arcad...vibrations.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 3, 2008 Share Posted April 3, 2008 http://thebiglead.com/?p=5249 per The Big Lead, Murray Chass of the NY Times is getting bought out of his contract. THE WICKED WITCH IS DEAD (I hope). What an idiot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Is he really that wicked? Who's your favourite sports writer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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