GDT: November 9th, 2010 - Canucks @Habs

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I am not concerned with Halak, just like I am not concerned with Latendresse.

If I can move on from Patrick Roy being traded for Thibault, Rucinsky and Kovalenko, losing Halak when they

have Price to replace him is the least of my concerns.

I haven't watched more than 10 minutes of Halak this season, but people need to stop acting like he is the reason

they are killing it. That team is stacked with young talent, especially on the back end with Johnson and Pietrangelo.

They are taking 35 shots per game and allowing only 26. That is an absurd differential so far.

Oh yeah, that's the other thing that drives me batty that I wanted to mention - the general narrative around Halak is that he's single-handedly turning the mediocre Blues into contenders. Never mind that that team was already well on the path to emerging as upper-echelon due to good drafting, high picks and internal development. The glib ignorance of the hockey media will drive me to drink if I let it.

Edited November 10, 2010 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber

[Seb]

Oh yeah, that's the other thing that drives me batty that I wanted to mention - the general narrative around Halak is that he's single-handedly turning the mediocre Blues into contenders. Never mind that that team was already well on the path to emerging as upper-echelon due to good drafting, high picks and internal development. The glib ignorance of the hockey media will drive me to drink if I let it.

Ty Conklin had a shutout the other night for them. Just goes to show you that it can't be as hard to do as people are making it out to be.

In St. Louis, I mean.

[Wamsley01]

Ty Conklin had a shutout the other night for them. Just goes to show you that it can't be as hard to do as people are making it out to be.

In St. Louis, I mean.

Well, it's only 2 games. Usually the surefire sign that a team runs a strong system is looking at

both goaltenders numbers. Look at Phoenix last season.

Bryzgalov seemingly joins the elite goaltenders in the league out of nowhere.

Guess who joined him? Jason Labarbera with a career .902 SV% with 3 teams all of a sudden puts up a .928?

Look at Leighton. The guy jumps from team to team and lands with Philly with Pronger, Timmonen and Coburn

with defensively dedicated forwards and he is producing a .918 SV% after a career of .896?

Watch Conklin closely all season. He is a very capable goaltender when placed on a strong team. If he is pushing

.920-25 then Halak's numbers are likely inflated on a strong defensive team. If he is struggling along in the low .900s

then Halak is likely full value for his statistics.

[brobin]

Well, according to many commentators out west, Halak his been one of the best players on that team, period. Conklin has played a couple games. His stats are not statistically valid. Play him for 15 games and you will see the difference between him and Halak. Same goes for Auld and Price. If Auld plays one game and gets a shutout, that doesn't make him a better goalie then Price.

I would argue that Price has a much better team in front of him too. The shot totals are way down versus last year. While the goal support sucks, the team defense and PK is great. This makes everything easier for Price to put up a decent save percentage. What has impressed me with Price is that he has come up big when the team makes a mistake, or when the other team puts on the push. Last night is a great example. As Wamsley said, Price was bored most of the game, but in the last 10 minutes, he earned that shutout the old fashioned way.

I know everyone wants to judge the trade already, but even ignoring Halak, I won't be convinced on Price until I see a full season and some playoff action. I have seen Price look this good for 20 games before, but his issue was how he handled 5 bad games. They turned into months of him being frustrated. I want to see how he rebounds this year to the tough stretches. I want to see how he responds in the playoffs. Does he win us a series? Does he lose us a series? Does he play well, but is not the difference maker one way or another. This is what is important, no matter what Halak does. If Halak sucks this year, it doesn't help us. If he is great, it doesn't hurt us (unless its a Price vs Halak Stanley Cup final.. lol.. wouldn't that be something!).

Goaltending is always huge in the performance of a team, but frankly, the biggest issues right now are out PP and the top six peashooters we have. We need goal scoring and we need it soon. We can't expect to win games like last night on a regular basis.

[Wamsley01]

Well, according to many commentators out west, Halak his been one of the best players on that team, period. Conklin has played a couple games. His stats are not statistically valid. Play him for 15 games and you will see the difference between him and Halak. Same goes for Auld and Price. If Auld plays one game and gets a shutout, that doesn't make him a better goalie then Price.

I would argue that Price has a much better team in front of him too. The shot totals are way down versus last year. While the goal support sucks, the team defense and PK is great. This makes everything easier for Price to put up a decent save percentage. What has impressed me with Price is that he has come up big when the team makes a mistake, or when the other team puts on the push. Last night is a great example. As Wamsley said, Price was bored most of the game, but in the last 10 minutes, he earned that shutout the old fashioned way.

I know everyone wants to judge the trade already, but even ignoring Halak, I won't be convinced on Price until I see a full season and some playoff action. I have seen Price look this good for 20 games before, but his issue was how he handled 5 bad games. They turned into months of him being frustrated. I want to see how he rebounds this year to the tough stretches. I want to see how he responds in the playoffs. Does he win us a series? Does he lose us a series? Does he play well, but is not the difference maker one way or another. This is what is important, no matter what Halak does. If Halak sucks this year, it doesn't help us. If he is great, it doesn't hurt us (unless its a Price vs Halak Stanley Cup final.. lol.. wouldn't that be something!).

Goaltending is always huge in the performance of a team, but frankly, the biggest issues right now are out PP and the top six peashooters we have. We need goal scoring and we need it soon. We can't expect to win games like last night on a regular basis.

We will see at the end of the year how good the Blues are defensively. I don't expect Halak to put up .930 this season,

nor do I expect Conklin to be at .960. There are metrics to measure, but 15 games is not a big enough sample.

[BCHabnut]

Jaro is only facing minimal shots. He is awesome at making the first save, and it was his bad rebounds that ususally went in here. The Blues Defense is clearing the rebounds. It is obvious with his SA number. Price has made nearly 100 more saves than him. We as Habs fans are so used to our goalie having to save the team's butt, that we expect the goalie to be magical, and we put them on a pedestal. Put Price or Halak in Atlanta and see how they do. It's a team sport. Wamsley is so right. My thinking is that is Halak and Price could have both been had for the same cost, then the smart move would have been to keep Halak. I do believe he is the real deal. But as so many have said. Plekanec is a pretty good player! He makes the team better, and he helps make it so we don't have to rely on the goalie bailing out the team. It was pretty simple for Gauthier. "I can't afford Plek and Halak. I have a very good goalie waiting in the wings. I don't have a centre even close to as good as Plek."

[Seb]

Jaro is only facing minimal shots. He is awesome at making the first save, and it was his bad rebounds that ususally went in here. The Blues Defense is clearing the rebounds. It is obvious with his SA number. Price has made nearly 100 more saves than him. We as Habs fans are so used to our goalie having to save the team's butt, that we expect the goalie to be magical, and we put them on a pedestal. Put Price or Halak in Atlanta and see how they do. It's a team sport. Wamsley is so right. My thinking is that is Halak and Price could have both been had for the same cost, then the smart move would have been to keep Halak. I do believe he is the real deal. But as so many have said. Plekanec is a pretty good player! He makes the team better, and he helps make it so we don't have to rely on the goalie bailing out the team. It was pretty simple for Gauthier. "I can't afford Plek and Halak. I have a very good goalie waiting in the wings. I don't have a centre even close to as good as Plek."

Halak has 266 (251 saved) shots against in 10 starts. (26.6/game)

Price has 393 (361 saved) shots against in 14 starts. (28.1/game)

We're looking at 1.5 shots difference per game. Not a huge difference. I'm not making an argument one way or another (I don't get into the Price v. Halak unless I need to), but saying Price has made 100 more saves that Halak is kind of a useless stat, IMO.

There is no readily available metric for quality of shot. Which would be really interesting.

[dlbalr]

There is no readily available metric for quality of shot. Which would be really interesting.

There is actually, it's called Delta (or that's what the person who does it calls it)...and it's not for goalies (that I'm aware of). I just stumbled upon it a few weeks ago and haven't the slightest clue how to calculate it. The spreadsheet I have from last season breaks it down by quality of shot, quality of opponent, quality of linemates, per situation, per player. Since someone's doing that for the skaters, it could probably be extrapolated to assess the goaltending stuff as well. I even have a team-by-team breakdown of shot quality, just not in that much intricate detail. I'm sure there's something like that for goalies though.

[Seb]

There is actually, it's called Delta (or that's what the person who does it calls it)...and it's not for goalies (that I'm aware of). I just stumbled upon it a few weeks ago and haven't the slightest clue how to calculate it. The spreadsheet I have from last season breaks it down by quality of shot, quality of opponent, quality of linemates, per situation, per player. Since someone's doing that for the skaters, it could probably be extrapolated to assess the goaltending stuff as well. I even have a team-by-team breakdown of shot quality, just not in that much intricate detail. I'm sure there's something like that for goalies though.

Interesting. Have a link?

[Wamsley01]

There is actually, it's called Delta (or that's what the person who does it calls it)...and it's not for goalies (that I'm aware of). I just stumbled upon it a few weeks ago and haven't the slightest clue how to calculate it. The spreadsheet I have from last season breaks it down by quality of shot, quality of opponent, quality of linemates, per situation, per player. Since someone's doing that for the skaters, it could probably be extrapolated to assess the goaltending stuff as well. I even have a team-by-team breakdown of shot quality, just not in that much intricate detail. I'm sure there's something like that for goalies though.

THere is a shot quality model out there.

It is essentially based on distance, rebound, game situation etc.

It takes the shots from a certain distance and takes the goals from that distance and creates a goal expectancy.

It then takes those percentages and applies it to shots faced. Brodeur usually scores very badly in these models.

There is problems with the accuracy because of the mistakes in data accumulation as well as the calculation basing

a shot from the side board of 40 feet as the same as a shot from the slot at 40 feet.

So a goaltender that faces 100 of shots from the sideboards where the scoring angle is almost zero from 25 feet will

have the same calculation as the goaltender who faces 100 shots from the slot from 25 feet.

All that being said, it is more accurate than the current measurement which gives equal credit to a shot from 100 feet as

one from 6 feet. One has zero chance to score, the other is near the top end in probability.

10 years from now goaltenders will have a much different statistical model to compare from.

[Wamsley01]

Halak has 266 (251 saved) shots against in 10 starts. (26.6/game)

Price has 393 (361 saved) shots against in 14 starts. (28.1/game)

We're looking at 1.5 shots difference per game. Not a huge difference. I'm not making an argument one way or another (I don't get into the Price v. Halak unless I need to), but saying Price has made 100 more saves that Halak is kind of a useless stat, IMO.

There is no readily available metric for quality of shot. Which would be really interesting.

It's actually about 2 shots per game because you divided by starts and not minutes.

Halak is under 26 shots per game, Price is just under 28. That is 164 shots on a season, that might not seem like

much but with a .920 SV% that equates to an extra 13 goals against per season.

That being said, it is not quantity, it is quality that is important.

Edited November 11, 2010 by Wamsley01

[Wamsley01]

It is way to early in the season to make any conclusions.

Look at the stats before last night.

Price had a .911 SV% and Jaro had a .944 SV%. A .33 differential.

24 hours later it sits at .918 SV% to .932 SV%. A differential of .14.

Those are massive fluctuations that won't settle down for another two months.

[Seb]

It is way to early in the season to make any conclusions.

Look at the stats before last night.

Price had a .911 SV% and Jaro had a .944 SV%. A .33 differential.

24 hours later it sits at .918 SV% to .932 SV%. A differential of .14.

Those are massive fluctuations that won't settle down for another two months.

True. And factor in Halak's performance tonight, it's even closer.

[dlbalr]

Interesting. Have a link?

Can't remember where I found it...I e-mailed you the Habs portion though.

[Rio77]

As much as I'll take the win on this one, I feel kind of dirty being a trap team. Like to know if we can win against these caliber of teams without using the trap. I know I'll get trashed for this, but watching trap games is worse than watching paint dry.