Cole Caufield- what's up??

[REV-G]

I think there are some interesting things happening around CC this year. 

 

At the halfway point this season he has played 41 games, scored 11 goals and 17 assists for 28 points and is -3. He's on pace for 22 goals and 56 points.

Last season he played 46 games and had 26 goals and 10 assists for 36 points and was -10. He was on pace for around 40 goals and 15 assists for 55 points. So points wise he's on par with last season but I think we all expected him to score between 35-45 goals, which he's quite far behind that pace, goals wise. 

 

So what's up? I think there could be a few things happening. Some have suggested that after surgery he has lost something on his shot. For me that's unlikely because nowadays rehab is so good and other players who have had the same surgery have returned to their normal way of playing and shooting. 

 

However I do I think that injuries to some of his teammates have affected him in a few ways. I think losing Kirby Dach really affected the top line. When Dach was moved up to their line last year they saw immediate improvement in almost every area. They were a threat. And when Alex Newhook got hurt they lost another player who could possibly help them offensively, although the sample size was pretty small.

 

In reality I think teams are putting more effort on covering CC because you can see that he is getting that clear one-timer far less often than he did last year. It also appears that goalies are keying on him more because they seem to already be in position to stop him by being over and covering that side of the net as or before he shoots. Last year he seemed to have more of an open side of the net as he was shooting his one-timer. 

 

Last year, with Dach on their line, the scoring was more spread out and CC's one timer seemed to happen much more often. Due to a lack of genuine scoring threats from a depleted lineup other teams seem to be covering him much closer. You can see that on the pp when he gets the puck there is always someone on him, which wasn't often the case last year.  Last year he always seemed to have room to maneuver and either shoot or pass. This year there seems to often be only the option to pass.  

 

The positive outcome for me is two-fold. First it has given Slafkovsky an opportunity to break out and I we're seeing the breakthrough with him that we were all hoping for. I think with the opportunity he's had this year, and the one-on-one coaching, he's breaking through that barrier and I think he is simply going to get better and better. He is still only 19 for another month, so he has so much room to still grow and develop.

 

Second, next year we will have Dach & Newhook back (this year) and Slafkovsky that much better. I assume a few guys will be traded and we should have some exciting new players coming up.

 

I think CC will be fine and will get back to scoring between 30-40 goals and overall as a team I think we have a very bright future.  

[TurdBurglar]

While injuries have no doubt affected production of the entire team, as evidence of Montréal being 6th worse in the NHL.  I do also believe it's a shift in coaching mentality.  Especially CC, has been attempting to be more defensive this year.  Offense will suffer when trying to be more defensive. 

 

As for his one-timer, I've noticed as the season goes on that they've moved away from the sole game plan of setting up CC's one-timer on the PP.  This makes for less opportunities for Caufield, but an overall better PP.  The PP is slightly better this year.

 

I think CC's struggles are more of a result of developement than anything else.  Similar to the sophomore slump you see in rookies. 

[DON]

More (twice) the playmaker this year it seems is whats up.

2021   0.29

2022   0.21

2023   0.40 assist/gm

 

[Commandant]

Yes, modern surgery and modern rehab is much better than it was.  However it is not instantaneous.  I have heard from multiple orthopaedic surgeons and physiotherapists (via podcasts and articles) that there is a difference between healthy enough to return to the lineup, and the shoulder being at 100% of what it is pre injury.  It can take 18-24 months post surgery for his shot to be back to the quickness of release, and power as he had prior to the injury.  As for other players, yes they eventually got back to normal but often had a down season after the injury before coming back to 100%.

 

That said things are rarely, if ever, just one thing.  I do think you are right in Dach's absence and the other injuries like Newhook, Pearson, RHP (until now) and others, plus the struggles of Anderson and Armia have meant there has been a lack of a second/third line scoring threat and more attention on the Suzuki/Caufield line.  This is a factor too. 

 

Meanwhile his defensive game and playmaking have both improved this season. 

 

So I'm not really worried about Caufield.  I think he'll be fine as the team improves. 

[tomh009]

4 minutes ago, Commandant said:

That said things are rarely, if ever, just one thing.  I do think you are right in Dach's absence and the other injuries like Newhook, Pearson, RHP (until now) and others, plus the struggles of Anderson and Armia have meant there has been a lack of a second/third line scoring threat and more attention on the Suzuki/Caufield line.  This is a factor too.

I think the combination of the shoulder and this explain a lot of the drop in shooting percentage, from 16.5% to 7.5%. Still, I do expect that percentage will improve somewhat in the remainder of the season.

 

In the advanced stats, Caufield's on-ice xGF/ is actually improved (from 2.36 to 2.48), meaning that the Habs should be scoring as many goals as before, maybe just not by Caufield himself.  But his on-ice xGA is down from 3.06 to 2.38, meaning that the opposition should be scoring far less often against them than last year. But, yes, that shooting percentage impacts the difference between xGF and actual goals in a big way ...

[alfredoh2009]

I think that some of his line mates have also grown wary of him just waiting at the right dot for the one timer. I have seen less passes going to him and he is not very good at going to the slot to be open for a better angle . 
in French, RDS, they said that he «  gets turned over like a pancake » when in tight spaces .

He will be better as he grows into a seasoned vet, he will be a consistent 30+ g , I am sure. Just not this year

[tomh009]

There will be fewer passes to Caufield if the opposing team is putting more coverage on him.

[DON]

nice shot

[Commandant]

2 hours ago, tomh009 said:

There will be fewer passes to Caufield if the opposing team is putting more coverage on him.

 

Exactly.  This is the reason, not that teammates dont want to pass to him.  I laugh at that comment, its the NHL, not some junior high popularity contest.