Breaking down the Race

[Wamsley01]

Down to the nitty gritty, trying to figure out all the possibilities and playoff implications can give one a headache.

So I have attempted to gain a clearer picture on who has the inside edge to qualify in 2008.

Favourites to qualify

New Jersey Devils – 80 points

Record required to qualify with 92 points – 6-12-0 (0.333)

Remaining Schedule – 8 Home/10 Away

Winning Percentage of Opponents remaining – 0.553

Record versus remaining opponents – 12-15-1

Playoff contenders left – NYR(2), Buff(2), Ott, Wash(2)

The Devils are a lock for a playoff berth. They do have 3 left against the Rangers who they have struggled with all season going 0-5,

but they only need to play .333 hockey to finish the season and even though they have struggled against their remaining opponents

this season it is hard to believe that they can not win 6 games to qualify. To much veteran leadership and all world goalie Martin Brodeur.

They are in

Pittsburgh Penguins – 79 points

Record required to qualify with 92 points – 6-11-1 (0.361)

Remaining Schedule – 8 Home/10 Away

Winning Percentage of Opponents remaining – 0.542

Record versus remaining opponents – 17-17-0

Playoff contenders left – Bos, Ott, Wash, Buff, Phi (4), NYR(3), NJ (2), NYI (2)

Although the Penguins have a difficult schedule remaining, their deadline acquisitions, the emergence of Evgeni Malkin and the return

of Crosby should allow them to navigate this field all the way to an Eastern Conference Championship. They do have 4 games remaining

with the Flyers who have frustrated them all season (1-3) and plenty of tough divisional matchups, but barring some major chemistry issues

or the real Ty Conklin showing up they should motor to a Conference title.

They are in.

Carolina Hurricanes – 71 points

Record required to qualify with 92 points – 10-5-1 (0.656)

Remaining Schedule – 9 Home/7 Away

Winning Percentage of Opponents remaining – 0.512

Record versus remaining opponents – 18-11-1

Playoff contenders left – NYR, Buff (2), Ott, Wash (2)

The Canes are in the lucky position of playing the Southeast division where they get to face the Lightning, Thrashers and Panthers

24 times per season (Why they have unbalanced division heavy schedules and then rank the teams 1-16 in the conference is beyond me)

They have 9 of their final 16 at home and their opponents come in at a whopping 0.512 winning percentage. They also have a seasonal

mark of 18-11-1 against their opponents. With only 6 difficult games remaining on the schedule they are in the driver’s seat for a ridiculously high 3 seed.

They are in.

Ottawa Senators – 78 points

Record required to qualify with 92 points – 6-10-2 (0.389)

Remaining Schedule – 7 Home/11 Away

Winning Percentage of Opponents remaining – 0.559

Record versus remaining opponents – 16-11-2

Playoff contenders left – Phi, Pit, Bos (3), Mtl (3), Car, Buff (2)

Team turmoil. They fired their coach, their goaltending sucks and they haven’t scored in 2 games but they still remain

2 points from the Conference lead. The Sens have a tough western road swing ahead of them and only have 7 of their

final 18 at home, but with an abundance of games left on their schedule with perpetual whipping boys Montreal, Toronto

and Boston. I think they can squeak out 6 wins.

They are in.

Montreal Canadiens – 77 points

Record required to qualify with 92 points – 7-10-1 (0.416)

Remaining Schedule - 9 Home/9 Away

Winning Percentage of Opponents remaining – 0.562

Record versus remaining opponents – 16-14-1

Playoff contenders left – Buff (3), NJ (2), Ott (3), NYI, Bos (2)

The Canadiens are having their best season in 10 years and are in position to not only make the playoffs but win their division.

The habs need to win only 7 of their final 18 games to qualify for the post season. They have one of the toughest schedules in

the East ahead of them but should be able to scrape together 7 wins to make the dance. The division is within reach if they can

return from their West coast trip at .500.

They are in. But with some stress for the faithful.

NY Rangers – 72 points

Record required to qualify with 92 points – 10-8-0 (0.555)

Remaining Schedule - 8 Home/10 Away

Winning Percentage of Opponents remaining – 0.559

Record versus remaining opponents – 20-12-2

Playoff contenders left – Car, Phi (3), NYI (4), Bos, Buf, Pit (3), NJ (3),

The Rangers have a tough schedule down the stretch and need at least 10 wins to qualify.

But the Blueshirts have owned their division this season, especially NJ who they are

a perfect 5-0 against. If the averages even out in their division, they could be in trouble.

But I think they squeak in.

They are in.

Boston Bruins – 72 points

Record required to qualify with 92 points – 10-10-0 (0.500)

Remaining Schedule - 11 Home/9 Away

Winning Percentage of Opponents remaining – 0.547

Record versus remaining opponents – 14-14-4

Playoff contenders left – Mtl (3), Pit, Was (2), NYR, Ott (3), Phi, Buf (2), NJ

The Bruins are hot and are looking to return to the playoffs for the first time post lockout. They hold games in hand on most

of their competitors and beyond their struggles with the Canadiens have handled the rest of the East very well. A .500 record

is not beyond their reach and I expect them to be holding down one of the final spots come April.

They are in.

The battle for the 8th spot

Buffalo Sabres – 71 points

Record required to qualify with 92 points – 10-7-1 (0.583)

Remaining Schedule - 10 Home/8 Away

Winning Percentage of Opponents remaining – 0.563

Record versus remaining opponents – 15-13-3

Playoff contenders left – Mtl (3), Phi, Was, Car (2), Ott (2), Bos (2), NYR

Philadelphia Flyers – 69 points

Record required to qualify with 92 points – 11-7-1 (0.605)

Remaining Schedule - 10 Home/9 Away

Winning Percentage of Opponents remaining – 0.555

Record versus remaining opponents – 19-4-2

Playoff contenders left – Ott, NYI (4), NYR (3), Buf, Bos, Pit (3), NJ (2)

Washington Capitals – 66 points

Record required to qualify with 92 points – 13-5-0 (0.722)

Remaining Schedule - 10 Home/9 Away

Winning Percentage of Opponents remaining – 0.534

Record versus remaining opponents – 11-15-3

Playoff contenders left – NJ, Bos (3), Buf, Pit, Car(2)

There is going to be a dog fight for the 8th spot. Philly has some huge inter-divisional games left on their schedule and those

12 games will seal their fate. The Sabres will have to rebound from the loss of Brian Campbell and they seem to be hitting their

stride. The outside possibility still remains that 2 of these teams could qualify if the Caps can tear the Canes from that division lead.

I have no idea who is stealing the 8th seed but it is going to be a dogfight.

Long shots

NY Islanders – 67 points

Record required to qualify with 92 points – 12-5-1 (0.694)

Remaining Schedule – 8 Home/10 Away

Winning Percentage of Opponents remaining – 0.551

Record versus remaining opponents – 17-15-2

Toronto Maple Leafs – 65 points

Record required to qualify with 92 points – 13-3-1 (0.794)

Remaining Schedule - 8 Home/9 Away

Winning Percentage of Opponents remaining – 0.568

Record versus remaining opponents – 12-18-5

Both these teams are huge longshots. The Isles have to essentially run the table considering they will be battling playoff teams all the way

through and the Leafs…LOL, they are just here for my amusement. If Jesus decides to overtake Toskala’s body for 17 games they have a shot,

otherwise it will be another enjoyable post season without the Leaves.

As for our beloved Habs, the amount of games that are taking place between confernce rivals makes it very difficult for them to miss the Playoffs this season.

They will need a monumental collapse, and with the power of Kozed’s mighty curse’s and avatars, it remains unlikely.

Edited February 28, 2008 by Wamsley01

[KoZed]

Playoff contenders left – Buff (3), NJ (2), Ott (3), NYI, Bos (2)

These 5 games should give us a good idea of how this team will look like in the playoffs. They should be intense games.

[BTH]

Yeah, that's pretty much it but I think Washington might pass Carolina for the division lead (I thought this before the deadline, I don't think they improved themselves that much on D-day.)

[lazy26]

Yeah, that's pretty much it but I think Washington might pass Carolina for the division lead (I thought this before the deadline, I don't think they improved themselves that much on D-day.)

Factor in inconsistent goaltending, horrible D and even worse injuries... I doubt we'll see the Canes in the post-season this year, and I concur that Washington will win the division.

[Wamsley01]

Yeah, that's pretty much it but I think Washington might pass Carolina for the division lead (I thought this before the deadline, I don't think they improved themselves that much on D-day.)

They might, but I couldn't overlook Carolina's ridiculously easy schedule down the stretch and their record against those teams this season (18-11-1).

I tried not to buy into the hype surrounding teams and their deadline deals. I put the Pens up there not because of Hossa, but because of the emergence

of dominant Malkin and the return of Crosby.

[BTH]

The Pens are looking to make it even without Hossa and even if Crosby was only coming back for the first game of the playoffs.

Carolina has already sold off Stillman and Commodore and Williams and Brind'Amour are injured. I'm not sure they'll be able to hang on. They aren't the same team they were at the start of the season.

[Wamsley01]

The Pens are looking to make it even without Hossa and even if Crosby was only coming back for the first game of the playoffs.

Carolina has already sold off Stillman and Commodore and Williams and Brind'Amour are injured. I'm not sure they'll be able to hang on. They aren't the same team they were at the start of the season.

Maybe not, but when you get to play half of your final 16 games against Tampa, Florida and Atlanta I like your odds.

And considering they are 6-1-1 since they made that deal I am not going to say they have no chance. They have defeated

Pittsburgh, New Jersey and Washington without those players. So, I stand by my reasoning.

Anything can happen, but Washington will most likely have to finish on a tear to get it done.

Edited February 28, 2008 by Wamsley01

[Habsfan]

Great thread Wamsley! Your analysis is excellent! I have to say that i like our chances of making the playoffs. Let's just hope and pray that we won't be the victim of a huge collapse!

[MMPL]

AWESOME THREAD!!

Can you please make one of the West to, because this is really top-notch!

:clap:

[Neech]

Carolina has already sold off Stillman and Commodore and Williams and Brind'Amour are injured. I'm not sure they'll be able to hang on. They aren't the same team they were at the start of the season.

Carolina added Joe Corvo, who brings much needed help to the powerplay. The loss of Stillman isn't that big, his production had dwindled significantly. He had 5 points in the 15 games prior to being dealt.

The main issue I have with Wamsley's analysis is saying the Bruins are in. They're looking good, especially with their games in hand, but Buffalo or Philly could take their spot.

[Wamsley01]

Carolina added Joe Corvo, who brings much needed help to the powerplay. The loss of Stillman isn't that big, his production had dwindled significantly. He had 5 points in the 15 games prior to being dealt.

The main issue I have with Wamsley's analysis is saying the Bruins are in. They're looking good, especially with their games in hand, but Buffalo or Philly could take their spot.

Bruins laid the wood to Ottawa tonight. I did the best with the info I collected.

Things can turn on a dime, nobody would have predicted Ottawa losing 15 of 22

2 months ago. I could have dug even deeper, just didn't have the time.

[Neech]

Bruins laid the wood to Ottawa tonight. I did the best with the info I collected.

Things can turn on a dime, nobody would have predicted Ottawa losing 15 of 22

2 months ago. I could have dug even deeper, just didn't have the time.

Well it just seemed premature to give a team 3 points out of 9th place the conclusion 'they are in.' That would go for the Rangers too, I guess, but I would definitely pick them as more of a lock to make it than the Bruins.

[Wamsley01]

Well it just seemed premature to give a team 3 points out of 9th place the conclusion 'they are in.' That would go for the Rangers too, I guess, but I would definitely pick them as more of a lock to make it than the Bruins.

Come on Neech, You're kidding right

Is it to much to ask somebody who disagrees with my opinon to provide something more than their assertion?

You act as though I put up a post that says.

Teams that are in:

Pittsburgh

New Jersey

Montreal

Ottawa

Boston

etc

I looked at Boston and saw that

1) They might be up by only 3 points but had a game in hand on Philly and 2 on Buffalo

2) They have been on fire lately (as witnessed by their back to back thrashings of Ottawa and Pittsburgh)

3) If you remove the fact that Montreal has owned them they would be 14-9 versus the rest of their opposition this season

4) I refuse to judge Boston on their games vs Montreal, just like Devils, Sens and Leaf fans should not judge Montreal on their performance against them.

I broke down the race. I tried to use variables that might determine winners. I tried to avoid biases (like watching Montreal

pound the snot out of Boston) effect my opinion. Did I use every variable available? No, but I used a hell of a lot more than I am sure you have.

Telling my ranking are premature states the obvious. I have never stated I can read the future, all I am doing is providing info for everybody to analyse and judge for themselves.

So if you want to tell me I am wrong, please provide more reasoning and less conjecture please.

Once again, stating the Rangers are more of a lock than the Bruins, why? Please elaborate.

I can go through every thread in here and tell people that is wrong, that is wrong, that is wrong. What does that accomplish?

What does that teach me? I come here for info, to learn and to exchange ideas. I don't care if you disagree with me, but at least give me

an idea why you do. Just like the Esposito argument. Explain to me your point of view. I respect it, so I would like to hear it.

Edited February 29, 2008 by Wamsley01

[CBHabs_fan]

Excellent article. Just what we need at this time of year, when we are all struggling to figure out our chances.

I'd like to think that those who are disagreeing with you are doing so because they have a difference of opinion, and not strictly to be argumentative.

I happen to agree mostly with your analysis, except that I dont think PIT will win the conference. I think Hossa's injury will be a downer, despite them playing well before him. I also dont think their goaltending will hold up enough (we may have seen a hint of that last night).

As for NYR vs BOS....BOS is certainly in a better position, being hot right now, games at hand, and a better schedule. Maybe Neech is just seeing that they both have 72 points and NYR does have a better team on paper. You've included them both as "IN", so it doesnt really matter.

Couple of questions for everyone:

1) Does this analysis change with the Hossa injury?

2) Looking at the 3 MTL/BOS games, does the law of averages kick in, or could we possibly win 2 or 3 of these? (these games scare me).

[Chris]

Only 2 games with Boston. Montreal needs to atleast split the division games. 500 should get them in.

[CBHabs_fan]

This weekend is going to be HUGE. 2 wins would go a long way...

[Wamsley01]

Excellent article. Just what we need at this time of year, when we are all struggling to figure out our chances.

I'd like to think that those who are disagreeing with you are doing so because they have a difference of opinion, and not strictly to be argumentative.

I happen to agree mostly with your analysis, except that I dont think PIT will win the conference. I think Hossa's injury will be a downer, despite them playing well before him. I also dont think their goaltending will hold up enough (we may have seen a hint of that last night).

As for NYR vs BOS....BOS is certainly in a better position, being hot right now, games at hand, and a better schedule. Maybe Neech is just seeing that they both have 72 points and NYR does have a better team on paper. You've included them both as "IN", so it doesnt really matter.

Couple of questions for everyone:

1) Does this analysis change with the Hossa injury?

2) Looking at the 3 MTL/BOS games, does the law of averages kick in, or could we possibly win 2 or 3 of these? (these games scare me).

Thanks,

I love a difference of opinion. It makes the board what it is. I like to hear Neech's opinions, but I am looking for the basis of opinion

so I can understand the stance. It is why when I give an opinion I allow people to view my argument and decide for themselves.

If they think I am an idiot, at least I provided them a basic understanding of my thought process.

As for your questions

1) I stated earlier that I made the prediction based on Crosby's return. But everybody assumed they would tank when he left

so the basic assumption they will be better when he get's back is far from a guarantee. Hockey is very reliant on chemistry,

I remember when the Leafs (yes another Leaf reference) made the Conference Finals, got Sundin back and lost their mojo. All rational

sense would have indicated that he would have improved them, but he didn't.

2) I think they can win both because as witnessed with Jersey, it took us 3 years to get their number.

Edited February 29, 2008 by Wamsley01

[BTH]

Tomorrow night is a big night for the Eatsern Conference standings as the top 4 teams pair off: NJ is in Montreal and Pittsburgh is playing Ottawa. I think Toronto is playing Tampa so that should be two more points for them.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

This post is another example of why this message board is a superior place to go for intelligent Habs-related discussion than the 'expert' media. Terrific work, Wamsley!

(Also encouraging to see that the Habs are in quite good shape. To see that they need go only 7-10 to probably qualify, that sets the mind at ease - I seriously doubt we'll do worse than that, although of course I won't breathe easy until this bunch proves it can break the jynx of fatal collapses).

[Habsfan]

Tomorrow night is a big night for the Eatsern Conference standings as the top 4 teams pair off: NJ is in Montreal and Pittsburgh is playing Ottawa. I think Toronto is playing Tampa so that should be two more points for them.

I just hope that the Pens/Hens game doesnT go to overtime. These three point games are making both conferences extremely tight!

Edited February 29, 2008 by Habsfan

[Habsfan]

This weekend is going to be HUGE. 2 wins would go a long way...

No kidding!

If the Habs can go 11-7 in their final 18 games, that would give us 99 points, which should be enough to garantee us at least 5th place in the conference...maybe even 4th place!

[BTH]

This post is another example of why this message board is a superior place to go for intelligent Habs-related discussion than the 'expert' media. Terrific work, Wamsley!

(Also encouraging to see that the Habs are in quite good shape. To see that they need go only 7-10 to probably qualify, that sets the mind at ease - I seriously doubt we'll do worse than that, although of course I won't breathe easy until this bunch proves it can break the jynx of fatal collapses).

I actually think it made me feel a bit uneasy. 7-10 is bad for a team that's fighting for 1st in the East but it's definitely possible. Right now, I'm counting the wins and I won't be relieved until we clinch.

[Habsfan]

I actually think it made me feel a bit uneasy. 7-10 is bad for a team that's fighting for 1st in the East but it's definitely possible. Right now, I'm counting the wins and I won't be relieved until we clinch.

I think there are alot of us who feel the same way. the next two games, plus the 4 game road trip out west is crucial.

[giupietrantonio]

I really don't post that much but i found that beacuse of way that this topic is written and the amount of time and effort put in, it was essential for me to say that this post is one of the best posts that i've read. Thank you Wamsley.... I agree 100% with all of your analysis.

Edited February 29, 2008 by giupietrantonio

[Habsfan84]

Ya great Post Wamsley