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Bergevin: Long Term planning vs Short Term playoffs


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#1 HabsWEST

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 02:32 PM

For too long this team has made short term one sided trades against them in favour of just trying to get into the playoffs.

Is giving up prospects, a bunch of 2nd round picks , even 1st round picks ( Tanguay trade - as one example), a strategy for this team?


My preference is to see Long term ( 3 to 5 year plan) of solid drafting, accumulate draft picks ( maximize our assets, unlike past : Gainey/Gauthier era - even the 80's and 90's )

I go back to being disappointed to seeing LANGWAY traded, ( eventhough Green and Walter helped us win a cup in "86), and Chelios traded, and most recent Mcdonaugh trade!

HOPE BERGEVIN doesnt see fit to unload prospects/ and multitude of players for 1 or 2 players that arent much different. IS a deal of this magnitude and giving up of assets, make us substantially better now and future?

I remember the day we traded for GOMEZ, ( I was in NY ) and was not only upset we gave up a prospect, we obtained a horrible contract for a player that averaged 50 some points and less than 20 goals...Was he that much better than Higgins? Look at GOMEZ stats, nothing jumps up...so why were we disappointed he didnt achieve ( his stats with MTL where inline with his career averages)...

NOW WE HEAR RUMOURS, Bergevin is after RYAN O'REILLY and ERIC JOHNSON for:

1. Eller
2. Leblanc
3. Diaz
4. 1st Round pick
5 AND a prospect...

ELLER for O'Reilly, Eller is more defence sound, similiar size ( Eller is bigger), Eller has more skill, similiar stats, similiar age.
NOW would you trade:

Leblanc, Diaz, *1st round ( potential top 10 in a deep year ) and a prospect( ?) for JOHNSON:

How are we better off in this scenario? ( giving up our 1st round pick, could turn into BURKE/Maple leafs: Bruins scenario! ). Of course Bergevin may think MTL is a playoff team, so there is a tendency to think that 1st round pick is a mid to low pick ( what BURKE/MAPLE LEAFS thought )

--- We deplete assets, and be really no different. In fact worse off for the future!

Hints of MT not seeing Eller in plans and not in his books as player he prefers to have.

on TWITTER:


Hockeyy Insiderr‏@HockeyyInsiderr:

"Michel Therrien has confided in me that he is not fond of Lars Eller. He told Bergevin to deal him if right opportunity comes along #Habs"

By the way, link to one example of these rumours ( and I take these with skeptical view), and just rumours...I prefer to comment on overall philosophy that this team has gone away from since the 70's:

ON TWITTER: ( pure speculation )
Hockeyy Insiderr‏@HockeyyInsiderr

"#Habs preparing 2 offers, 1 for O'Reilly and 1 for O'Reilly+Johnson. Eller/Leblanc/DIaz/1st rounder/prospect discussed "

http://www.insiderru...ted-in-oreilly/

Hockeyy Insiderr‏@HockeyyInsiderr

"#CONFIRMED by #Habs source close to Marc Bergevin: #Canadiens are preparing a MEGA package for #Avs O'Reilly & Erik Johnson. #BellLetsTalk"

LETS GO BACK FEW DECADES:

IT ALL STARTED WHEN WE DIDNT OFFER SCOTTY BOWMAN THE GM POSITION, and the revolving door of trades and GM's and coaches after our 4 straight cup run. 2 Stanley cups in 34 years isnt the greatest!, but than again the world has changed, thats 2 more than most teams in the league!

ARE WE CONTENT TO JUST MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. What happened to the Sam Pollock era, and the great teams of the 50's, 60's, 70's, where the goal is to WIN it all! ( no more protected territory of players, but to be a consistent contender is what should be strived for!)

AND speaking of Scotty : But than again Detroit consistently has been near the top ( coincidence? )
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#2 The Chicoutimi Cucumber

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 03:10 PM

My goodness. Can we at least wait and see what MB does before getting our knickers in a knot?


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#3 Machine of Loving Grace

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 03:12 PM

HockeyyInsiderr is a fake. Stop believing in twitter rumours. Is nothing but entertainment.
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#4 HabsWEST

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 03:16 PM

HEY, AGREED, I did note " PURE SPECULATION " the purpose of my statement, is we need to think LONG TERM, and brief background going back to late 70's, early 80's, and string of trades that I remember, starting with Langway, and GRUNDMAN era, and BOWMAN not offered GM/PRES and he left.

We keep looking at band aid solutions, hope we can move forward!!..

No silly comments here, just examples, observations, and long term reasoning, Hope Bergevin and current group thinks this way!!

COOL? ! ;)
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#5 The Chicoutimi Cucumber

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 03:33 PM

Well, first, we all agree that the goal is to win a Cup and that doing that in a cap system absolutely requires developing from within.

 

But I think attacking the 1980s Habs as 'short termist' is ridiculous given the results on the ice: two Cups (86, 93) a Finals appearance (89) and perennial contender status, year after year. I'll accept those results, thank you very much.

 

As for rejecting the goal of making the playoffs, I have never been a 'tanker.' Too many fans fantasize about stockpiling high picks via a long run of last-place finishes. But as this is no guarantee of a Cup either (c.f. Columbus, Edmonton), I think we're better to work on the Philly/Vancouver/New Jersey/Detroit model of maximizing assets while remaining a competitive club. The real challenge, as Gauthier rightly pointed out when he took over, is getting from 'pretty good' to 'great.' That's what Gainey and Goat couldn't crack.

 

Making the playoffs is an important objective in any case, and an indispensable step to winning a Cup. Imagine if LA had said, 'well, we're not contenders, so we should ship out our veterans for picks.' Beyond this, it's harder to attract UFAs if you are not perceived as a team that can reliably make the playoffs. So I don't see it as cut-and-dried in the sense that some fans seem to, where if you're a 'bubble team' as of Feb. 1, you should automatically start the fire sale. That is a ridiculous oversimplification.

 

GMs are also in a can't-win position on this. In 2009, everybody thought the Habs were poised to make a deep playoff run. So Gainey, engaging in 'short term thinking,' went for it. He shipped out picks for Lang and Tanguay and (eventually) Schneider. It didn't work. Because it's not an exact science. And so now the image of him as a 'short term thinker' is burned in the fanbase's collective mind. (Not trying to excuse everything Gainey did, BTW). The thing is, if you have a contending team and you don't 'go for it,' then fans bitch about you being too passive, not having the gumption to 'take that last step.'

 

Fans love cap space because they can fantasize about filling it with Mario Lemieux. Fans love picks because they can fantasize about using them to build the 1985 Oilers. Fans love prospects because they can fantasize about their limitless potential rather than grappling with the realities of actual, imperfect NHLers. The reality is much messier, all the way around.


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#6 Machine of Loving Grace

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 03:54 PM

It's obvious because of success but nobody ever remembers the bad trades Sam Pollock made. 

 

Pollock once traded Chad Larose, Danny Grant and Marshall Johnson for Bob Murdoch, cash and the North Star's first round draft pick.  That pick turned out to be super dud Dave Gardner (Gardner did eventually turn into Doug Risebrough though).  Danny Grant ended up winning the Calder for Minnesota and scoring 50 goals with the Red Wings down the road.  He also traded Dennis Hextall to the Golden Seals for cash (he eventually was a star for the North Stars much like Danny Grant).  He gave up Rogie Vachon for a hand full of players because Vachon demanded to be traded.  He traded several players for the Islanders second round pick, one of which was multi-all star Chico Resch.  Chuck Arnason for Rick Chartraw was another bad deal as Arnason put up 199 points to Chartraw's 93. 

 

Just putting this out so people gain a little perspective when it comes to GMs.  Even the greatest GM in NHL history made some bad deals.  Every GM is going to make some bad deals.  It's impossible to speculate with Bergevin because he hasn't really made a deal with Montreal yet.  Unless you want to put a microscope to Jason DeSantis for Brendon Nash.


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#7 Lovett's Magnatones

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 04:20 PM

Hockeyyinsiderr is a fake.  Google search it.  However, if we can get O'Reilly and Erik Johnson for Leblanc, Eller, Diaz and a first, we had better take that trade in a heartbeat.  We have enough depth players, Erik Johnson is no number 1 pic, but he's an excellent player, ditto for O'Reilly.  The Avalanche have picked our pocket on enough deals, it's time we got something back.  I could see this trade happening.



The reality is that all teams want to build from within and take a long term approach to rebuilding but pressure from ownership, fans and the media to win at any cost as soon as possible is why we have the "Calgarys" of the NHL.


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#8 Lovett's Magnatones

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 04:22 PM

Erik Johnson is an upgrade over Diaz, and O'Reilly is an upgrade over Eller.  Leblanc, the first, and hopefully a fringe prospect like Danny Kriston, who knows what could happen?  Johnson and O'Reilly are both young players with a lot of upside, and we shouldn't view a potential trade as a push to make an 8th playoff spot.  They would be part of the rebuild.


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#9 Zowpeb

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 05:43 PM

Yeah, I think the OP is underestimating O'Reilly and Johnson in his analysis.  Both are also better fits in the Habs line-up...Eller and Leblanc are looking like the odd-man out at C with 2 out of Pleks, DD and Galchenyuk forming what is likely the next 4 years there on the top 2 lines.  Plus, if you are getting young players back it's hardly gutting the farm needlessly.  I'd agree if they were 30 year old vets your trading for...

 

However, I do agree this team needs a better long term approach.

 

CC noted that some fans want to "tank" and that it's not realistic.  I firmly disagree and, as I've stated previously, this is the year you want to "tank".  There are mid-tier vets like Cole and Gionta that could be dealt for picks in a short season to help try to get the Habs another top 5 pick (another forward please).  I think given the current core of young players already on the Habs combined with a decent draft last year means the Habs are actually quite close to setting themselves up to be highly competitive for a number of years...with waves of youth coming up for the next 2-3 years and the cap room to compliment that with high quality vet acquisitions.  That is EXACTLY how Philly, NJ, DET and others do it...admittedly, they've developed prospects better and managed their veteran talent to acquire youth in a better way then the Habs.  But that also highlights their commitment to not only short term performance but shows they keep their eye on the long term stability of their organizations.


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#10 Machine of Loving Grace

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 06:24 PM

Detroit is terrible at developing prospects. NJ has the best CHL scouts in the league.
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#11 brobin

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 08:29 AM

I would do that trade if you switced the 1st for a 2 nd. There is no way I would trade this years first round pick.
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#12 The Chicoutimi Cucumber

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:23 AM

Yeah, I think the OP is underestimating O'Reilly and Johnson in his analysis.  Both are also better fits in the Habs line-up...Eller and Leblanc are looking like the odd-man out at C with 2 out of Pleks, DD and Galchenyuk forming what is likely the next 4 years there on the top 2 lines.  Plus, if you are getting young players back it's hardly gutting the farm needlessly.  I'd agree if they were 30 year old vets your trading for...

 

However, I do agree this team needs a better long term approach.

 

CC noted that some fans want to "tank" and that it's not realistic.  I firmly disagree and, as I've stated previously, this is the year you want to "tank".  There are mid-tier vets like Cole and Gionta that could be dealt for picks in a short season to help try to get the Habs another top 5 pick (another forward please).  I think given the current core of young players already on the Habs combined with a decent draft last year means the Habs are actually quite close to setting themselves up to be highly competitive for a number of years...with waves of youth coming up for the next 2-3 years and the cap room to compliment that with high quality vet acquisitions.  That is EXACTLY how Philly, NJ, DET and others do it...admittedly, they've developed prospects better and managed their veteran talent to acquire youth in a better way then the Habs.  But that also highlights their commitment to not only short term performance but shows they keep their eye on the long term stability of their organizations.

 

It depends what 'tanking' means. Trading Gio when we're in a playoff race may not be equivalent to throwing in the towel, given that he really isn't looking like much of a reliable impact player any more, though he definitely could help in a playoff run I could see Gallagher stepping into his role nicely, while you call up Leblanc (or somebody) to fill his slot on the lower lines. That's the sort of targeted, sensible asset-management I can support. I am less enthusiastic about a blanket house-clearing of veterans every season in which we are not clear-cut Cup contenders, which is basically what the 'tankers' incessantly push for. On this view we should move Cole, Gio, Markov, Moen, and probably 2-3 other guys this season even if we are in a playoff spot at the deadline. Beyond the unrealistic assumption that you're going to bag top-end picks for these guys, it's all based on a 'two in the bush' sort of fantasy rather than any realistic grasp of how you build a team or a winning culture.


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#13 Turd Burglar

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 01:18 PM

If there is any truth to this, what would we do with DD?  There would be no place for him in our top-3 centers, and he's not a 4th line center.  I would imagine if he couldn't get comfortable on a wing, he would be shipped out soon thereafter.  Just something to ponder.


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#14 The Chicoutimi Cucumber

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 02:45 PM

Many argue that DD's long-term survival will require him to shift to wing. It's possible. IF Eller keeps progressing and DD keeps struggling, I can't believe it will be long before Eller passes him on the depth chart.

 

It occurs to me that, if we are looking to be a seller at the deadline, Markov is the one guy who might yield a major, high-end pick in return. A healthy Markov - even the somewhat diminished Markov we've seen over the past few games - really could propel a team that's 'almost there' to the Stanley Cup. If Cole finds his game, he will also be highly desirable, but Markov is another level, a potential game-changer.

 

The problem is, what becomes of our own blueline, then?


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#15 Lovett's Magnatones

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 03:11 PM

Many argue that DD's long-term survival will require him to shift to wing. It's possible. IF Eller keeps progressing and DD keeps struggling, I can't believe it will be long before Eller passes him on the depth chart.

 

It occurs to me that, if we are looking to be a seller at the deadline, Markov is the one guy who might yield a major, high-end pick in return. A healthy Markov - even the somewhat diminished Markov we've seen over the past few games - really could propel a team that's 'almost there' to the Stanley Cup. If Cole finds his game, he will also be highly desirable, but Markov is another level, a potential game-changer.

 

The problem is, what becomes of our own blueline, then?


I'm not too concerned with Life After Markov.  He won't be relevant by the time we're a contender, and we already have an average number 1 in Subban.  I would move him and his huge contract at the deadline.  Teams are always looking to boost their powerplay, we can get a huge return for a guy who has 10 pp points to a contender with a below average power play. (Who isn't Kaberle)  We need to clean house with these old regime vets. (Gio, Markov, Moen)  All of these guys are old news.


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#16 tebo64

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 04:19 PM

Can Desharnais be a good wing player on the third or even a fourth line?  Prefer him as a wing on the third line?  Any thoughts on that approach?  I like the young man and his work ethic. 


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#17 Turd Burglar

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 05:41 PM

Can Desharnais be a good wing player on the third or even a fourth line?  Prefer him as a wing on the third line?  Any thoughts on that approach?  I like the young man and his work ethic. 

It'll all depend on how we define our bottom 2 lines.  Right now we have 3 scoring and 1 energy line, with no real defined shutdown line.  Desharnais isn't physical enough to be on an energy line and isn't big and strong enough to be on a shutdown line.  As we are now he's suited for a 3rd line scoring role if we replace him on his line.  If the team gets a makeover and we go back to 2 scoring lines, a shutdown line and an energy line I don't see a spot for Desharnais if he gets pushed out of the top 2 lines. 

 

In all honesty, as the team sits, if Eller surpasses him on the top 2 lines, it's either winger for Chucky or nothing.  If any of the rumors are true about O'Reilly or Getzlaf, then Desharnais days at center are numbered, and possibly on this team. 


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#18 hab29RETIRED

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 02:28 AM

Lets not forget passing on bossy for Napier. And supporting the hiring of grundman over bowman.

Pollack was great, but he was still human. Having said that he was also focused on building a winner and sometime that means moving assets that don't fit in your plan, or well oiled machine, then being necessarily wrong about them. Would grant have scored 50 goals CONSISTENTLY for Montreal? Pierre larouche scored 50 goals for us one year, but wasn't the type of player you build a dynasty around.

Federko is in the hall of fame (one reason why I think the hockey hall of fame is weak when compared to baseball), scored a ton of points but is not a guy I ever hoped the habs would pickup.



It's obvious because of success but nobody ever remembers the bad trades Sam Pollock made. 
 
Pollock once traded Chad Larose, Danny Grant and Marshall Johnson for Bob Murdoch, cash and the North Star's first round draft pick.  That pick turned out to be super dud Dave Gardner (Gardner did eventually turn into Doug Risebrough though).  Danny Grant ended up winning the Calder for Minnesota and scoring 50 goals with the Red Wings down the road.  He also traded Dennis Hextall to the Golden Seals for cash (he eventually was a star for the North Stars much like Danny Grant).  He gave up Rogie Vachon for a hand full of players because Vachon demanded to be traded.  He traded several players for the Islanders second round pick, one of which was multi-all star Chico Resch.  Chuck Arnason for Rick Chartraw was another bad deal as Arnason put up 199 points to Chartraw's 93. 
 
Just putting this out so people gain a little perspective when it comes to GMs.  Even the greatest GM in NHL history made some bad deals.  Every GM is going to make some bad deals.  It's impossible to speculate with Bergevin because he hasn't really made a deal with Montreal yet.  Unless you want to put a microscope to Jason DeSantis for Brendon Nash.


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#19 hab29RETIRED

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 02:32 AM

 
It depends what 'tanking' means. Trading Gio when we're in a playoff race may not be equivalent to throwing in the towel, given that he really isn't looking like much of a reliable impact player any more, though he definitely could help in a playoff run I could see Gallagher stepping into his role nicely, while you call up Leblanc (or somebody) to fill his slot on the lower lines. That's the sort of targeted, sensible asset-management I can support. I am less enthusiastic about a blanket house-clearing of veterans every season in which we are not clear-cut Cup contenders, which is basically what the 'tankers' incessantly push for. On this view we should move Cole, Gio, Markov, Moen, and probably 2-3 other guys this season even if we are in a playoff spot at the deadline. Beyond the unrealistic assumption that you're going to bag top-end picks for these guys, it's all based on a 'two in the bush' sort of fantasy rather than any realistic grasp of how you build a team or a winning culture.


I'm all for trading gio and Moen - not because I want to tank, but because their best before date has passed and I think others have passed them. I also NEVER want to endure the possibility of seeing moen in the top 9 - let alone top 6 again.
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#20 hab29RETIRED

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 02:38 AM

Many argue that DD's long-term survival will require him to shift to wing. It's possible. IF Eller keeps progressing and DD keeps struggling, I can't believe it will be long before Eller passes him on the depth chart.
 
It occurs to me that, if we are looking to be a seller at the deadline, Markov is the one guy who might yield a major, high-end pick in return. A healthy Markov - even the somewhat diminished Markov we've seen over the past few games - really could propel a team that's 'almost there' to the Stanley Cup. If Cole finds his game, he will also be highly desirable, but Markov is another level, a potential game-changer.
 
The problem is, what becomes of our own blueline, then?

I would NEVER trade Markov - unless the sens were to offer Karlsson or something (no fringing chance!).

He is a leader and there is no one with his hockey smarts. MT needs to either play Subban and Markov together, or use them smarter so that both play 25 min a night. Subban NEEDS Markov to take the pressure off him so he can take the next step.

Serge Savard's downfall started when he either traded or let go Robinson, Ludwig and Green around the same time, thinking he had a lot of good young dmen in the system.
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#21 The Chicoutimi Cucumber

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:08 AM

Habs29, your analysis is strong as usual.

 

I don't want to move Markov by any means. I just think that, IF we are talking about 'long term planning' to build a contender, he is the one asset who, while clearly on the back 9, could command a potentially franchise-changing return (very high pick, really good prospect[s]) from a team hot to win the Cup. I could be wrong, but I don't see Gio, Moen or even Cole bringing back that kind of franchise-defining return. 2nd-rounders are always useful, but anyone thinking we're gonna vault to Cup contender status based on a couple of extra second rounders, or even a late 1st rounder, is just playing the 'tanking' fantasy game. Those picks can just as easily turn into Jason Ward as PK Subban, and indeed are more likely to do so.

 

(On the historical point, it's true that Savard overplayed his hand by jettisoning veteran defencemen in 1990. But this was hardly his 'downfall.' He had a contending team in 1992 and won the Cup in 1993. He also had a nice slate of young talent developing when he was stupidly fired. That guy was a good GM).


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#22 Lovett's Magnatones

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:33 AM

I want to move Markov.  We have two years at least before we're a contender.  He has a long history of injuries, and aging isn't going to go well for him.  He started out red hot, and is already slowing down.  His value will never be higher than this year.  I think we can get a first rounder for him, and keep stockpiling the prospects.


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#23 The Chicoutimi Cucumber

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 12:06 PM

I want to move Markov.  We have two years at least before we're a contender.  He has a long history of injuries, and aging isn't going to go well for him.  He started out red hot, and is already slowing down.  His value will never be higher than this year.  I think we can get a first rounder for him, and keep stockpiling the prospects.

 

I think Markov's recent dip in play is entirely to be expected. He came back raring to go and exploded out of the gate. Soon that initial burst of energy runs out. Now he is sucking wind, as his body and brain truly adjust to the speed of the NHL game - but we shouldn't rule out the likelihood that we will make the adjustment within the next 2-3 weeks and start playing better. Not saying he'll be the old Markov, just that he is following a predictable pattern for players who have been out with long-term injuries (great start, followed by slump as reality hits home, followed by recovery).

 

None of this has anything to do with whether we should trade him, though.


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#24 habs rule

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 12:21 PM

What a cut throat bunch (those who want to trade Markov). A more loyal canadiens would be hard to find, a leader in the room and on the ice. He became a citizen because he wants to be here. He has given his all every year he has been here. When he was injured we all cried that we needed him back cause it was destroying our team. Now he's back and you want to trade him? Well for starters damn near every team in the nhl would like to have him. And they would give a lot to get him. But our team would suffer the loss for years and unless we get a #1 quarterback on the power play, who logs huge minutes, is solid in his end and a genius at passing. That's what I will be doing passing on trading him, cause we already got that. :habslogo:


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#25 Habsfan

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 09:40 AM

Well said Habs Rule. I can't believe people are proposing trading Markov. Yes, Subban will be good some day, he might even become better than Markov, but that day isn't today. We still NEED Markov and his passing skills, his PowerPlay quarterbacking abilities and his sound play overall.

 

 NOW WE HEAR RUMOURS, Bergevin is after RYAN O'REILLY and ERIC JOHNSON for:

1. Eller
2. Leblanc
3. Diaz
4. 1st Round pick
5 AND a prospect...

 

I wouldn't lose too much sleep over these trade rumours. Even though I agree with Brobin (I'd give a second rounder instead of a first rounder) this deal won't happen. Ryan O'reilly is asking for a long term deal worth 5 million a year.

 

We just went through a "war" with Subban because he also wanted a long term deal. How could the Habs justify going out and signing O'Reilly to a long term contract when we said no to Price, MaxPac and Subban.

 

Unless Bergevin can convince O'reilly to accept a 2 year bridge contract, this deal ain't happening!


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