THN 07-08 Season Projections

[Chris]

Right, Just check the standings at the end of the year, then you can tell me how laughable my predictions are.

[Chris]

Yep, i am a fan. It's not my fault the team over the past ten years has been mediocre at best. I just them like i see them. I like plenty of players on this team, I also dislike several players and the work ethic of the team.

Sorry, call them like i see them.

[Wamsley01]

When will people stop looking at hockey like it is Fantasy sports?

So what they did not add any flashy names. Boston added Chara and Savard in 2006 and

everybody said look out for the Bruins. How did they do in 2006? The Penguins in 2005 added Gonchar/Leclair/Recchi and everybody had them making the leap. How did they do in 2005?

Meanwhile the Buffalo Sabres were ignored by everybody and made it all the way to the conference finals.

How? They committed to youth out of necessity and it matured while nobody was paying attention.

Well the Habs are doing the exact same thing. Will it be this year? Maybe. But Montreal subtracted

a guy who never fit and was a clubhouse cancer in Samsonov. A Defenseman who was a 1 trick pony and a -28 on the season in Souray. A backup goalie who could not stop a beachball in Aebischer and 2 strong defensive forwards who offered limited offense in Bonk and Johnson.

So they replaced these players with a guy like Smolinski. A defensive forward with more offensive upside than Bonk. A defenseman in Hamrlik who has finished in the minus only once in the last 9 years, and offers the ability of a strong puck moving defenseman. A forward in Lapierre who showed he deserved to play in the NHL and was on of the leaders in the Hamilton Bulldogs championship run, and a kid in Kostitsyn that proved he can at worst be as productive as Samsonov.

Add to the fact that Carbonneau and Gainey want to play a defensive system that Kosty and Laps were groomed on while playing in Hamilton and Hamrlik and Smolinski should adapt to as they have throughout their careers. Add one of two backup goalies who both dominated the AHL and I don't think it is a stretch to believe that it is possible to have improved.

Stop looking at the Pittsburghs/Ottawas of the world for your comparisons. I don't know if most people noticed, but the coaching staff is Carbonneau, Muller and Jarvis and the GM is Bob Gainey. 8 SELKE TROPHIES!!! I wonder what type of player they are looking for? The Devils finish in the top of the Eastern Conference every year without big names and the Canadiens are trying to establish the same type of defensive responsibility.

New Jersey built from the franchise goalie out. Well the Habs franchise goalie is 20 and waiting for his opportunity. And the Bulldogs proved that if you follow the system properly it can lead to a championship.

The plan is coming along very nicely. Maybe not in time for the patience of most on this board but all the pieces are starting to fit in their places and mature. The Habs have a top 5 ranked farm system and complimented that with another strong draft in 2007. It is just a matter of time. This is the path to a sustained Championship run in the NHL, especially in the cap era.

BTW, The Habs do still have 4 Million in Cap space and a ton of prospects. It is not out of the realm of possibility that they can acquire an impact forward during this season.

Edited August 23, 2007 by Wamsley01

[Habitforming]

When will people stop looking at hockey like it is Fantasy sports?

So what they did not add any flashy names. Boston added Chara and Savard in 2006 and

everybody said look out for the Bruins. How did they do in 2006? The Penguins in 2005 added Gonchar/Leclair/Recchi and everybody had them making the leap. How did they do in 2005?

Meanwhile the Buffalo Sabres were ignored by everybody and made it all the way to the conference finals.

How? They committed to youth out of necessity and it matured while nobody was paying attention.

Well the Habs are doing the exact same thing. Will it be this year? Maybe. But Montreal subtracted

a guy who never fit and was a clubhouse cancer in Samsonov. A Defenseman who was a 1 trick pony and a -28 on the season in Souray. A backup goalie who could not stop a beachball in Aebischer and 2 strong defensive forwards who offered limited offense in Bonk and Johnson.

So they replaced these players with a guy like Smolinski. A defensive forward with more offensive upside than Bonk. A defenseman in Hamrlik who has finished in the minus only once in the last 9 years, and offers the ability of a strong puck moving defenseman. A forward in Lapierre who showed he deserved to play in the NHL and was on of the leaders in the Hamilton Bulldogs championship run, and a kid in Kostitsyn that proved he can at worst be as productive as Samsonov.

Add to the fact that Carbonneau and Gainey want to play a defensive system that Kosty and Laps were groomed on while playing in Hamilton and Hamrlik and Smolinski should adapt to as they have throughout their careers. Add one of two backup goalies who both dominated the AHL and I don't think it is a stretch to believe that it is possible to have improved.

Stop looking at the Pittsburghs/Ottawas of the world for your comparisons. I don't know if most people noticed, but the coaching staff is Carbonneau, Muller and Jarvis and the GM is Bob Gainey. 8 SELKE TROPHIES!!! I wonder what type of player they are looking for? The Devils finish in the top of the Eastern Conference every year without big names and the Canadiens are trying to establish the same type of defensive responsibility.

New Jersey built from the franchise goalie out. Well the Habs franchise goalie is 20 and waiting for his opportunity. And the Bulldogs proved that if you follow the system properly it can lead to a championship.

The plan is coming along very nicely. Maybe not in time for the patience of most on this board but all the pieces are starting to fit in their places and mature. The Habs have a top 5 ranked farm system and complimented that with another strong draft in 2007. It is just a matter of time. This is the path to a sustained Championship run in the NHL, especially in the cap era.

BTW, The Habs do still have 4 Million in Cap space and a ton of prospects. It is not out of the realm of possibility that they can acquire an impact forward during this season.

You pretty well summed up everything I was thinking and was too lazy to write.

Thank You

[saskhab]

Your reasoning is laughable at best.

The Sabres and Devils had the cores of their teams ripped out and you think that turns into determination and work ethic from the players?

As for the Leafs "they knocked the habs out" is true but they did it with 2 less wins, our #1 down with injuries for a long stretch and 9 of the Canadiens on IV's for a month...not gonna happen twice.

Are you even a fan?

The Devils lost their core? Did I miss something? Is Brodeur a Ranger now?

Parise is a better young player than any we have, and that's not a disservice to the ones we got. His improvement will make Jersey fans forget about Gomez's inconsistent production (they do have Zubrus now to remind them of that). Gomez is very good, but Elias is what makes their offence click.

Rafalski will be harder to take, but they managed to survive losing Stevens & Niedermeyer in consecutive seasons previously, and as good as Rafalski is, losing him isn't nearly the void lost that those 2 were. Hell, Rafalski wasn't even their captain like those other 2 were.

The East is a fluid enough conference that Brodeur is enough to pretty much guarantee an average team gets into the playoffs. Hell, even the West it was enough to just have Kipper or Luongo as 80% of your team and make it.

Buffalo is more vulnerable than New Jersey as a result, but I'd definitely say that Buffalo has a better shot at maintaining a top 2 division finish than Jersey because the NE is weaker than the Atlantic overall.

[Habitforming]

The Devils lost their core? Did I miss something? Is Brodeur a Ranger now?

Parise is a better young player than any we have, and that's not a disservice to the ones we got. His improvement will make Jersey fans forget about Gomez's inconsistent production (they do have Zubrus now to remind them of that). Gomez is very good, but Elias is what makes their offence click.

Rafalski will be harder to take, but they managed to survive losing Stevens & Niedermeyer in consecutive seasons previously, and as good as Rafalski is, losing him isn't nearly the void lost that those 2 were. Hell, Rafalski wasn't even their captain like those other 2 were.

The East is a fluid enough conference that Brodeur is enough to pretty much guarantee an average team gets into the playoffs. Hell, even the West it was enough to just have Kipper or Luongo as 80% of your team and make it.

Buffalo is more vulnerable than New Jersey as a result, but I'd definitely say that Buffalo has a better shot at maintaining a top 2 division finish than Jersey because the NE is weaker than the Atlantic overall.

Ok now a goalie (who isn't getting any younger don't forget) is the entire core of a team

Elias might be the offensive catalyst for the team but neither he nor Gionta can lead a group of girl scouts across the street, and Brodeur isn't a leader on the ice, just the dressing room.

Parise is good but better then anyone the habs have? please.

[Wamsley01]

The Devils lost their core? Did I miss something? Is Brodeur a Ranger now?

Parise is a better young player than any we have, and that's not a disservice to the ones we got. His improvement will make Jersey fans forget about Gomez's inconsistent production (they do have Zubrus now to remind them of that). Gomez is very good, but Elias is what makes their offence click.

Rafalski will be harder to take, but they managed to survive losing Stevens & Niedermeyer in consecutive seasons previously, and as good as Rafalski is, losing him isn't nearly the void lost that those 2 were. Hell, Rafalski wasn't even their captain like those other 2 were.

The East is a fluid enough conference that Brodeur is enough to pretty much guarantee an average team gets into the playoffs. Hell, even the West it was enough to just have Kipper or Luongo as 80% of your team and make it.

Buffalo is more vulnerable than New Jersey as a result, but I'd definitely say that Buffalo has a better shot at maintaining a top 2 division finish than Jersey because the NE is weaker than the Atlantic overall.

THe Devils did take a big hit, but they have proven that the team is more than the sum of it's parts. And it is true. Brodeur is the biggest part of NJ's success. Parise is a future stud, but you forget Price. He is on par or a better prospect than Zach. But I agree. New Jersey always finds a way and I expect them to again this year.

Buffalo, they might not win the division but I bet they still fight for top 5 in the East. Satfford/Roy/Vanek/Connelly/Afinoganov/Miller is still a ton of talent.

[BTH]

Right. New Jersey still has Elias, Gionta, Parise and Brodeur as their remaining core. On paper, they aren't a playoff team but you ca nnever rule them out because of Brodeur.

Buffalo lost their two best players but they've still got a enough talent and speed to play their old system effectively. The problem now is that they may have to put their top guns together on the first line when they used to be able to separate all their stars and spread them out over the line-up. Now teams can focus in on their biggest threats.

[saskhab]

Ok now a goalie (who isn't getting any younger don't forget) is the entire core of a team

Elias might be the offensive catalyst for the team but neither he nor Gionta can lead a group of girl scouts across the street, and Brodeur isn't a leader on the ice, just the dressing room.

Parise is good but better then anyone the habs have? please.

So when the Devils were struggling in 2005-06 with no Elias, and then his return catapulted the team into a division title (and Gionta into a 50 goal scorer), the rest of the team were less than girl scouts?

Madden, Pandolfo and Brylin are great on ice leaders as well. Same with Jamie Langenbrunner, Richard Matvichuk, and (somewhat less so) Colin White.

Brodeur isn't alone, but he's the #1 reason they are successful. The rest of the core can be interchangable. Just not Brodeur. That's how it works in NJ.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I just want to add a word endorsing Wamsley01's analysis. Yes, it MIGHT be this year or it might not. But it's only a matter of time before this team 'emerges' in just the same way Buffalo and Nashville did a couple of seasons ago - pretty much out of nowhere and in defiance of all the 'experts' who now talk as though it was obvious all along that these werre solid clubs. Having been built mainly from within, and not with *obvious superstars* (like Pittsburgh) but rather with piles of good young players, they were ignored by all the 'experts' and hysterical fans who now are just looking at a team on paper and saying, 'Chris Higgins? Tomas Plekanec? Guillaume Latendresse? Komisarek? Barely heard of them. Hoo boy, the Habs are garbage.' (I've heard fans say the same thing said about Markov, incidentally. 'The Habs paid 5.5 mil for this no name?' But if Markov was on THEIR team, they'd soon learn to fall on their knees and give thanks).

And I'll say it one more time - improvement by the young guns OR a breakout season by one - hey presto, we've added the equivalent of a 'big name' UFA.

And you only need to read interviews with guys like Higgins and Komisarek to see how loyal they are to the organization and its systems. I agree that we're a New Jersey-like organization in embryo and that every single key person in the organization is immensely qualified and a proven winner. It can't NOT yield dividends, ultimately. But I can guarantee you that when it happens the 'experts' will not see it coming. Which is why they should be ignored now.

Sorry, I tend to rant on this But I really believe that Wamsley01 is right.

Edited August 23, 2007 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber

[BTH]

I think Tampa Bay and NYI are the ones who are going to lose their playoff spots here with NJ as a maybe. Montreal should be able to grab one of those spots and Toronto and Philly will have good chances too. I guess Carolina will have a shot too.

As for us, all we need is one surprise from one young player and we're a lock.

[Wamsley01]

The funny thing is we are talking about following New Jersey's blueprint when in essence where did New Jersey get it from? It has been a habs blueprint for 50 years.

Build from the goalie out: Plante/Dryden/Roy

It is also not a coincidence that in the 90's guys like Brent Gilchrist, Mike Keane, Brian Skrudland, Mike McPhee and Tom Chorske remained employed and guys like Corson/Muller/Lemiuex/Carbonneau travelled through Dallas.

They know they system and were defensively responsible. The Habs used to churn out these guys yearly.

[saskhab]

The funny thing is we are talking about following New Jersey's blueprint when in essence where did New Jersey get it from? It has been a habs blueprint for 50 years.

Build from the goalie out: Plante/Dryden/Roy

It is also not a coincidence that in the 90's guys like Brent Gilchrist, Mike Keane, Brian Skrudland, Mike McPhee and Tom Chorske remained employed and guys like Corson/Muller/Lemiuex/Carbonneau travelled through Dallas.

They know they system and were defensively responsible. The Habs used to churn out these guys yearly.

That's what frustrated me most about the 90's. Losing Roy was terrible, but it was the logical end to what had been a steady stream of losses. None of those guys you mentioned were stars on their next team, only a couple of d-men were in Desjardins, Chelios, and Schneider (and Chelios is only a sort of loss since we won a Cup without him). We just kept bleeding the identity of the team out. When Carbo got traded the first time I was furious, I don't care what the situation was. Then we traded our captain every 4 months it seemed.

As for playoff teams that could falter... I think Pittsburgh will stumble a bit mainly because Therrien is still a terrible coach and they can't play D and have an underdeveloped goalie, but that's an offence that won't be denied in the end. I don't think they'll finish a top their division, though. Ottawa will have a bit of a slow start, it happens to every finalist, and who knows how they'll react to a new coach, but they should easily make it by the end. Buffalo again will have an identity crisis to start with but they'll make it. Jersey is the same. The Rangers really only gained one productive centre this offseason because people forget they lost a good one in Nylander. I think they'll still be a bit inconsistent but make it. As for the SE, I think Tampa is still the best team there. Not by a long shot, but I can't imagine them not making it even with poor goaltending... they've managed to do it in spite of this for the past 2 years, no reason to think otherwise when their only significant offseason loss was their 5th d-man while they gained a better 3rd line C in Gratton. Carolina to me is the #2 team, but their D is very old and... well, unreliable. Strong offence, though, they're built a lot like Pittsburgh in that respect. Atlanta to me was a bit of a fluke last year... I think they are a mess of a team but they could still make it if Lehtonen makes the jump from promising starting goalie to star. Florida is a team to watch out for... I think they could finish anywhere from 1st to 4th in the SE, they have a good young D and an All-Star goalie with some good young forwards. They could make a big jump. Philly improved a lot but still are in a tough division so they'll have to be advantageous to make it. 4 making it from a division isn't unheard of (happened last year in the same division) but it's not without obvious defecencies in other divisions. The Leafs are the same team with a better chance at getting quality goaltending and another pest that can score some goals. This should prevent them from falling but doesn't guarantee a spot. We failed to add a big name but are very similar to last year's squad and all it's inconsistencies. There's no reason to think we'll be anything but a team battling for position.

To me the Bruins, Isles, and Caps are very unlikely playoff teams...

If you want me to handicap our chances I think we're in the same 7th to 11th range as we have been, about a 50% playoff shot.

[Athlétique.Canadien]

There's no reason to think we'll be anything but a team battling for position.

We held the best PP and PK numbers for a long time and our efficiency with Carbo's system when it was working was excellent. Minus no flu trapdoors and we may just be better than having to battle for position.

On the other hand, you probably are correct since this seems likely.

[brobin]

We held the best PP and PK numbers for a long time and our efficiency with Carbo's system when it was working was excellent. Minus no flu trapdoors and we may just be better than having to battle for position.

On the other hand, you probably are correct since this seems likely.

My only concern with the PP is we got rid of the main weapon it had. I don't expect our PP to be as good as last year. Hopefully our PK will be as good or better.

[Pierre the Great]

I agree that I hate these polls. They're meaningless. If you want an actual representation of what's going to happen you do a half way through the first half of the season poll. And then a mid season update.

Only thing these polls do is mess up the fans and make them angry or excited. But it does show bias.

[MAK]

My only concern with the PP is we got rid of the main weapon it had. I don't expect our PP to be as good as last year. Hopefully our PK will be as good or better.

don'T be too concerned about pp, brobin. last year we had a great PP an d still didn't make the playoffs. why ?? because our 5 on 5 sucked ALOT.

if they show better cohesion and a real team effort, MAYBE will they make it at the 8th spot.

[lazy26]

Special teams are an advantage, but M&K got it right. It's all about 5on5, and consistent team effort every night, every minute, with everyone sticking to the game plan. I think our PP should still be in the top 15, and I have high hopes for our PK if Higgins (among others) stays healthy.

[Habitforming]

The only reason our PP last year was first all season was because of one player, Souray?

Gimme a break.

I don't mind the usual guys that thinks the team sucks year after year, but at least have valid points to blame it on and not just a "they have no team effort" kinda stuff that is all personal opinion and based on zero fact.

Edited August 24, 2007 by Habitforming

[BTH]

Right. Kovalev and Markov are magicians on the powerplay and Hamrlik has a cannon from the point. Then we have PP specialist Ryder, a great playmaker in Koivu and one of our best players in Higgins. Streit, Brisebois, Plekanec, Kostitsyn, Latendresse, etc are guys who could come in handy on the second unit.

On the PK we still have Higgins, Plekanec, Smolinski and Lapierre so we don't have to wear out Koivu on the PK anymore like we used to.

[brobin]

For the record, Sheldon Souray scored approximately 20 percent of the team PP goals last season. He was the reason the Habs were number one in the PP department. I can't believe anyone would doubt that. I don't think our PP will collapse, but it won't be as good or save their bacon as many times as it did last season.

I also agree that our 5-5 performance has to improve remarkably for the team to have any chance of improvement. I think the PP success partially shielded them from just how brutal they were 5-5. They won't have that shield this year. I suspect they will have a good PP, just not a great PP. They better have a good 5-5 to go with it.

[saskhab]

For the record, Sheldon Souray scored approximately 20 percent of the team PP goals last season. He was the reason the Habs were number one in the PP department. I can't believe anyone would doubt that. I don't think our PP will collapse, but it won't be as good or save their bacon as many times as it did last season.

I also agree that our 5-5 performance has to improve remarkably for the team to have any chance of improvement. I think the PP success partially shielded them from just how brutal they were 5-5. They won't have that shield this year. I suspect they will have a good PP, just not a great PP. They better have a good 5-5 to go with it.

Conversely, their strong special teams may have led to decreasing effort 5 on 5, or at least helped foster lazy habits.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Listen, losing the league's best PP point-shot is gonna hurt, no matter how you slice it. But there's so much room for realistic and achievable improvement in so many other areas of the Habs' game, that I don't see that as determinant of their season.

Speaking of the media forecasters: I had better not hear someone like Pierre McGuire, who has been crapping on Souray's head as mediocre for years, using the departure of Souray as a justification for predicting that the Habs are going to suck. That's the sort of thing these 'expert' arseholes do on a regular basis.

[Wamsley01]

For the record, Sheldon Souray scored approximately 20 percent of the team PP goals last season. He was the reason the Habs were number one in the PP department. I can't believe anyone would doubt that. I don't think our PP will collapse, but it won't be as good or save their bacon as many times as it did last season.

I also agree that our 5-5 performance has to improve remarkably for the team to have any chance of improvement. I think the PP success partially shielded them from just how brutal they were 5-5. They won't have that shield this year. I suspect they will have a good PP, just not a great PP. They better have a good 5-5 to go with it.

Even with Souray the guy was not going to score 19 PP goals again. Add to the fact that teams would do to Montreal what they did to Toronto and take away the point. Was he a great weapon to have? YES, but there are other ways to score on the PP then blasting away from the point. Hamrlik and Markov are both smart players and a precision pass is just as effective as a booming shot. Add to the maturation of a young team. Adjustments will be made.

Great teams are made 5 on 5. Special teams are important but the Habs proved last year that having great special teams alone will have you on the outside looking in.

[zumpano21]

Barring a breakout year from Higgins or Kosty, I would likely say that we are no better than last year - possibly worse. We still need a franchise 1st line centre and a franchise goalie. We have the goalie in Price (give him a few years) but are still missing a Joe Thornton type player. I would not be surprised if we miss the playoffs again. Gainey's ONLY job right now is to land a big name, and it likely will not happen this year.