johnnyhasbeen Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 You know BlueKross, I agree. However it would be real cool if they caught fire and made it. It is a huge long shot that would require picture perfect efforts down the stretch. That type of consistancy we can't even seem to get for 60 minutes this year. The team has more than shown on occasions that when they play their best they can and do beat everyone. Even if they do stop when up by 3 goals... IF, and that is a huge IF, they were to collectively have a switch snap and real smarten the #%$* up they "could: do it. The real cool part of that would be how hot they would have to be going in IF they made it. I don't believe they will, but it is a nice dream. As for losing the lottery pick I think we will end up outside the top 5 regardless. Maybe 6th pick. American Defence? If that was the case I would just as soon pick down a few picks and see good hockey down the stretch, even if it meant missing by just a game or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueKross Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 You know BlueKross, I agree. However it would be real cool if they caught fire and made it. It is a huge long shot that would require picture perfect efforts down the stretch. That type of consistancy we can't even seem to get for 60 minutes this year. The team has more than shown on occasions that when they play their best they can and do beat everyone. Even if they do stop when up by 3 goals... IF, and that is a huge IF, they were to collectively have a switch snap and real smarten the #%$* up they "could: do it. The real cool part of that would be how hot they would have to be going in IF they made it. I don't believe they will, but it is a nice dream. As for losing the lottery pick I think we will end up outside the top 5 regardless. Maybe 6th pick. American Defence? If that was the case I would just as soon pick down a few picks and see good hockey down the stretch, even if it meant missing by just a game or two. It may be cool but it isn't smart. I want to see a Stanley Cup not f////ing around trying to slide into last playoff spot every year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Torontohab, Gauthier has made many decisions that can be defended in isolation, but if you look at his overall performance this season, it's been panicky and incoherent: get Kaberle to help the coach, then immediately fire the coach; hire a new coach, then undermine him; fire the coach because of a player rebellion, then trade the player who led the rebellion (Cammy). Again, each decision taken alone can be justified. But if you look at the big picture - how each decision relates to each other decision - he has shown no plan, vision, or leadership in coping with this disastrous season. This organization desperately needs a GM of stature who can instil calm, confidence, vision, and sang froid going forward. As for tanking, I still think people are missing the point: we're not likely to finish in the bottom 2. This means that, despite everything, we won't be particularly well-placed to bag a franchise player. So, you may as well cheer on your Habs to win. Whether we draft 4th or 6th overall is really not that important in terms of the probability of bagging an impact pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 While CC is probably right and we won't finish bottom 2, I think its important to point out. If we need to move up 1, 2, 3 slots in the draft, say from 8 to 5, or from 6 to 4; or whatever it is to ensure we get Galchenyuk... then the cost of doing that will be multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks. If we look at these trades over the years, and there have been a lot of them... Thats the price of moving up a few spots in the draft. The Leafs gave up a 2nd and a 3rd to move up from 8 to 5 to get Luke Schenn. There have been other similar deals in the top 10 over the years... but again, I don't have time to look them all up right now. Thats also one of the reasons why i want to trade our UFAs and accumulate a bunch of 2nd and 3rd rounders, it will give us the assets necessary to move up if we need to do so. With all the D available at the top of this draft a team might be willing to move down two or three spots and still get one of the D, but accumulate extra 2nds. But there are a limited number of Cs; so if we want Galenchyuk we have to be prepared to move up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habsy Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It may be cool but it isn't smart. I want to see a Stanley Cup not f////ing around trying to slide into last playoff spot every year. I was hoping this thread wouldn't be about tanking. Yet it is. Well, we're not tanking. And that's all there is to it. In fact, that's not the only way to build a team. So, no, it has nothing to do with being smart or or not. We're too good to be a lottery team, and have under achieved this season. If we trade more than Hal Gill and Travis Moen, I'll be surprised. Getting back to the point of the thread, we beat the Leafs tonight, that's 4 in a row. Then we host Carolina. We could be looking at 5 wins in a row. I expect this team to fight like hell to the end. Get used to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It may be cool but it isn't smart. I want to see a Stanley Cup not f////ing around trying to slide into last playoff spot every year. I'd point out that last season we did NOT 'try to slide into the last playoff spot,' but made the playoffs fairly handily. This team had emerged as better-than-a-bubble team, and had we been able to build on that instead of collapsing, we might well have entered into contender territory. The point is just that you don't have to tank in order to have a real shot. For that matter, you can tank and acquire great players and still never come within sniffing distance of the Cup - c.f. Washington and Columbus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patience is a virtue Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 I was hoping this thread wouldn't be about tanking. Yet it is. Well, we're not tanking. And that's all there is to it. In fact, that's not the only way to build a team. So, no, it has nothing to do with being smart or or not. We're too good to be a lottery team, and have under achieved this season. If we trade more than Hal Gill and Travis Moen, I'll be surprised. Getting back to the point of the thread, we beat the Leafs tonight, that's 4 in a row. Then we host Carolina. We could be looking at 5 wins in a row. I expect this team to fight like hell to the end. Get used to it. This thread is about winning. It's about pride and giving your all while there is still hope. There is indeed still hope and the team is really gelling - playing the hockey they have always been capable of. It's a fundamentally solid group that has never needed tanking to become a contender. It's up to the boys to win almost all their contests between now and the deadline so that PG doesn't have to do what he should if they don't - trade away key players like Gill, AK or Moen (I hope not!). The Habs will never tank on the ice. It's management's job to make that unnecessary by weakening the roster in favour of future assets if the season is surely lost. But anyone who thinks the season is surely lost at this juncture just isn't watching the games and doesn't have enough imagination to contemplate what might happen once Markov returns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbp Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This thread is about winning. It's about pride and giving your all while there is still hope. There is indeed still hope and the team is really gelling - playing the hockey they have always been capable of. It's a fundamentally solid group that has never needed tanking to become a contender. It's up to the boys to win almost all their contests between now and the deadline so that PG doesn't have to do what he should if they don't - trade away key players like Gill, AK or Moen (I hope not!). The Habs will never tank on the ice. It's management's job to make that unnecessary by weakening the roster in favour of future assets if the season is surely lost. But anyone who thinks the season is surely lost at this juncture just isn't watching the games and doesn't have enough imagination to contemplate what might happen once Markov returns. We can make the playoffs, those three games against the sens will be key imo. If we can pull of playing that high a level of hockey as it would take to make the playoffs, we would be a terrifying team to face in the playoffs with the amount of heat we would be rolling in with. If we make it to the playoffs I would expect a "Halak-esque" run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patience is a virtue Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 We can make the playoffs, those three games against the sens will be key imo. If we can pull of playing that high a level of hockey as it would take to make the playoffs, we would be a terrifying team to face in the playoffs with the amount of heat we would be rolling in with. If we make it to the playoffs I would expect a "Halak-esque" run! Indeed. But just so I don't sound stary eyed here, I agree with what Commandant said in the Laff's game thread: "The players themselves will never intentionally tank. But unless we win 3/4 games over the next week, we should sell our UFA assets at the deadline and accumulate picks. If after this week we are no closer to the playoffs, there is quite simply no reason why Gill and Moen should remain Habs past the deadline." Except I'd say we should try to sign Moen to a discounted 2-3 year deal before dealing him. If he will stay for cheap, keep him. He will be more expensive as a UFA. He's an excellent 4th liner and elite PK specialist - difficult to replace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaboom Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Indeed. But just so I don't sound stary eyed here, I agree with what Commandant said in the Laff's game thread: "The players themselves will never intentionally tank. But unless we win 3/4 games over the next week, we should sell our UFA assets at the deadline and accumulate picks. If after this week we are no closer to the playoffs, there is quite simply no reason why Gill and Moen should remain Habs past the deadline." Except I'd say we should try to sign Moen to a discounted 2-3 year deal before dealing him. If he will stay for cheap, keep him. He will be more expensive as a UFA. He's an excellent 4th liner and elite PK specialist - difficult to replace. Gill should for sure be traded and moen i agree with you 100% and camp should be moved as well. We wouldn't be any worst off without them and Still look towards next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Realistically we need to go 18-7-1 or 17-6-3 to get to 92 pts to think about the playoffs. Thats the battle here. Not impossible, but not easy either. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Looking at the playoff odds, the Habs sit just below 20% right now (they were at 10% just the other day). Right now, it looks as if 93 points gives them a 95% shot at the playoffs (92 drops it to 87%). Here's the link to the odds site: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Montreal.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IN THE HEARTS OF MEN Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I was hoping this thread wouldn't be about tanking. Yet it is. Well, we're not tanking. And that's all there is to it. In fact, that's not the only way to build a team. So, no, it has nothing to do with being smart or or not. We're too good to be a lottery team, and have under achieved this season. If we trade more than Hal Gill and Travis Moen, I'll be surprised. Getting back to the point of the thread, we beat the Leafs tonight, that's 4 in a row. Then we host Carolina. We could be looking at 5 wins in a row. I expect this team to fight like hell to the end. Get used to it. f'n right.... im back from italia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Looking at the playoff odds, the Habs sit just below 20% right now (they were at 10% just the other day). Right now, it looks as if 93 points gives them a 95% shot at the playoffs (92 drops it to 87%). Here's the link to the odds site: http://www.sportsclu...t/Montreal.html i had tossed in towel prior to X-mas, but here's hoping for the best, or at least an honest effort every night, win or loose, like they have been doing is good by me. Some real positive showings by many on the roster, with Price leading the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IN THE HEARTS OF MEN Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 i look at it this way... in 2009 going into march we were 1 game above .500 at 29-28-6 for 64 pts in 63 games after like 21 weeks of hockey. there was a 3 week olympic break and we came back from that and went 10-5-4 to close out the season and make the playoffs!!! fast forward to today... we are 1 game below .500 at 23-24-9 for 55 points in 56 games and thats after only 19 weeks? we have 7 games to get 8 points to put us in the exact same spot we held then 27-27-9. (at week 19 we were 25-25-6 after 56 games good for 56 points) the question is can we go 8-3 or better to get to that fimiliar spot of 2 seasons ago. weve started 4-0! who here would trade assets recieved from a few impending ufa's for another storybook ending to a season and cinderella playoffs like then maybe even doing 1 or 2 better. cause i sure of hell would! its why we watch this damn game of hockey.... so as to have the chance to tell another story of an emotional ride we call les glorieux! and the rides just beginning friends..... strap in and enjoy!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 2010 was a weird year where 88 pts got you into the playoffs, which is the lowest total of any season since the lockout and the introduction of shootouts and 3 pt games. I wouldnt count on getting in with the same record we got in with 2 years ago. We are gonna need more than 88 pts IMO. I'm not saying its impossible, I'm just saying lets be realistic about the goal here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saskhab Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Games remaining: vs. Toronto - 2 vs. Ottawa - 3 vs. Washington - 2 vs. Florida - 1 vs. New Jersey - 1 Obviously every game is important, but these 9 games are more important than any. We have to catch two of these teams to make the playoffs (must be one SE team and one of the other 3, or two of the non-SE teams). What is incredibly frustrating is that four of these teams have worse goal differentials than the Habs do. Goal differential is one of those simple measures that can be looked at to pick out who is good and who isn't and notice any outliers... and while the Habs at even (+5 when you remove shootout goals) isn't world-beating, it should definitely be in the playoff group and not the lottery crew (generally -20 to -30 range). In the West, everyone above 8th is even or better, and everyone below is -10 or worse, for example. In the end, if we don't make it (and it's still likely we won't), it'll be because of a few close games we couldn't win, those blown leads, etc. It won't be because the team stinks thoroughly, that's for sure. We won't finish in the lottery. It's remarkable that's where we've been placed for the past month or so, but it was always only going to be a temporary visit. I think everyone needs to get on the faint playoff hope bandwagon because there really is no other option. This team isn't nearly bad enough to compete with the badness of the Blue Jackets, Oilers, Islanders, Hurricanes, and apparently the Bolts and Sabres (who are having way worse years than us despite hoping for similar things). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueKross Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'd point out that last season we did NOT 'try to slide into the last playoff spot,' but made the playoffs fairly handily. This team had emerged as better-than-a-bubble team, and had we been able to build on that instead of collapsing, we might well have entered into contender territory. The point is just that you don't have to tank in order to have a real shot. For that matter, you can tank and acquire great players and still never come within sniffing distance of the Cup - c.f. Washington and Columbus. We were 3 pts ahead of last spot last year and we were 1st round exit. Despite what you might think there are some good picks after the first two which could help in the near future and there is the lottery. I get that they will not quit. To suggest that after the first two picks it doesn't matter is dead wrong. If that was the case, we might as well just cancel the rest of the draft. Yeah there is still a mathematical chance to make the playoffs. In 27 games you got a bigger chance of having a couple of key players go down. Then what, the wheels keep spinning but no traction. I am not tanking, I am just moving my assets in another year to give me better results in the long game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We were 3 pts ahead of last spot last year and we were 1st round exit. Despite what you might think there are some good picks after the first two which could help in the near future and there is the lottery. I get that they will not quit. To suggest that after the first two picks it doesn't matter is dead wrong. If that was the case, we might as well just cancel the rest of the draft. Yeah there is still a mathematical chance to make the playoffs. In 27 games you got a bigger chance of having a couple of key players go down. Then what, the wheels keep spinning but no traction. I am not tanking, I am just moving my assets in another year to give me better results in the long game. I fully believe that Trevor Timmins is among the best Amateur Scouts in the NHL. In fact since he was hired Montreal has drafted more players who turned into NHLers than any other team in the league. I think our team is good, but there are a few improvements needed, and I really don't think we are a cup contender even if we make the miracle run to the playoffs (which is unlikely anyway). For that reason, I agree, move the assets, get more picks. Give Timmins more opportunity to pick the guys he wants. The more draft picks you have, the more options Timmins has, he can go for quantity and make all those selections, or he can package multiple picks together on draft day to move up and target the key guy he really wants. I'm willing to put my trust in Timmins to make those decisions, and I think that this is a year when we should give him as many assets as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 We were 3 pts ahead of last spot last year and we were 1st round exit. Despite what you might think there are some good picks after the first two which could help in the near future and there is the lottery. I get that they will not quit. To suggest that after the first two picks it doesn't matter is dead wrong. If that was the case, we might as well just cancel the rest of the draft. Yeah there is still a mathematical chance to make the playoffs. In 27 games you got a bigger chance of having a couple of key players go down. Then what, the wheels keep spinning but no traction. I am not tanking, I am just moving my assets in another year to give me better results in the long game. Well, I never said the draft doesn't matter. What I said was you only get franchise players drafting at #1 or maybe #2, and that these are unlikely finishes for us. But hey, let's have a look at first-round draft results. I've bold-faced players somewhat aribtrarily labelled as 'impact' NHL players by this point; 'franchise' players are bolded and italicized. It's not too precise, but what these results suggest to me is that there are two drop-offs: 'franchise' players generally go #1 or 2; 'impact' players were clustered in the top-5 in rounds 2006 and 2008, but in other years 'impact' players were much more evenly distributed. 2010 draft: 1. Taylor Hall 2. Tyler Seguin 3. Eric Gudbranosn 4. Ryan Johansen 5. Nino Niederreiter 6. Brent Connoly 7. Jeff Skinner 12. Cam Fowler 2009: 1. Tavares 2. Hedman 3. Duchene 4. E. Kane 5. Brayden Schenn 6. Ekamnn-Larsson 7. Kadri 11. Ellis 2008 1. Stamkos 2. Doughty 3. Bogosian 4. Pietrangelo 5. Schenn 6. Filatov 10. Hodgson 12. Myers 15. Karlsson 20. De Zotto 22. Eberle 2007: 1. P. kane 2. Van Riemsdyk 3. Turris 4. Thomas Hickey 5. Karl Alzner 6. Sam Gagner 7. Jakub Voracek 8. Zach hamill 9. Logan Couture 12. MacDonagh 13. Lars Eller 14. Shattenkirk 22. Max Pacioretty 26. Dave Perron 2006: 1. E. Johnson 2. J. Staal 3. Toews 4. Backstrom 5. Kessel 6. Brassard 7. Okposo 8. Mueller 9. Shepphard 10. Frolik 12. Little 14. Grabner 18. C. Stewart 22. C. Giroulx 26. Foligno Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Sure, and as I just said in the other thread... I have a ton of faith in Timmins, and his ability to separate the wheat from the chaff. I want to give him as high a pick as possible, with as many of those players on the board as possible, because if there is a guy who can find that Gem... its Trevor. I dont want to let someone else steal Trevor's guy because they are picking at 4 and we are at 6. Maybe they don't take Timmins guy, and he falls and is still able to snag him a 6, but thats the risk you take with the lower pick, the risk you don't have if you get that higher pick to begin with. I want my scouts to have as many choices as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueKross Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Franchise player/ impact player? I guess you have in your own mind that a franchise player is defined as the Crosbies of the world. Yeah not too many about, and a good chance we won't get one. I don't think there are many on this board that feel that we are that far out, despite our record. I believe if we secure some picks at that next level (impact) we will have a brighter future going forward. We should be getting a fairly low pick and we need to capitalize. Commandant is on the right course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 We need to look at what Ottawa did to rebound from falling down the standings in the way we have. They sold off their UFAs and accumulated a ton of picks, and probably had the best draft of any NHL team last year. However not one player from that draft class is helping them today, they are all developping for their future though. They made a few key surgical additions to their team in areas of need. One at the deadline (anderson) and others in the summer and early in the new season. They let their players who were injured last year and really hurt them due to the injuries rehab and come back healthy. They took their young players in the AHL... called them up and gave them meaningful NHL minutes. They sold off guys they weren't bringing back or didnt fit with them... Ruutu, Kelly, Fisher, etc... and got back good picks for them instead of losing them July 1st. They drafted a guy they needed in the first round, instead of taking a dman where they are stacked, they got forwards in Zibinajed, Noesen, and Puempel. They traded up to make sure they got the guy they wanted at the end of the first round, using thier extra picks to do so. They traded from a position of strength, excess young D, to get what they needed, young C in Turris. That should be the model for both making this team into a playoff team next season, and for building them into a contender long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patience is a virtue Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 OK, ok. We lost a must-win, coulda-won last night, and it was a downer. However! This remains the uber-optimistisch 'Narrow path to the playoffs' thread, so take your draft talk elsewhere please. This thread is for ing! Super-interesting discussion though, and I agree about Timmins and giving him maximum resources to work with. I have even come around to the idea that Moen should be traded to assist in the tank, if that is the route selected. Yet, the glimmer of hope remains. Gotta win tomorrow vs. the Goons and 5 of the next 6 before deadline day, says I. It can be done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Franchise player/ impact player? I guess you have in your own mind that a franchise player is defined as the Crosbies of the world. Yeah not too many about, and a good chance we won't get one. I don't think there are many on this board that feel that we are that far out, despite our record. I believe if we secure some picks at that next level (impact) we will have a brighter future going forward. We should be getting a fairly low pick and we need to capitalize. Commandant is on the right course. Yes, a franchise player is a Crosby. An 'impact' player is a guy like Pacioretty. You can really only count on the former to step right into the NHL and transform your team. Some fans have an unrealistic expectation about what our pick is likely to yield. My point is just that you can find 'impact' guys all over the first round, and cheering passionately for the Habs to lose so they can get (say) the 4th pick rather than the 6th pick is a bit overblown. It's the 'fail for Nail' argument I reject as unrealistic. Ultimately, though, I think we all agree with Commandant's model: move the impending UFAs as a simple matter of asset management, while cheering for the team to win every night. Makes sense to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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