Jump to content

2018 NHL Playoff Thread


Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Then again, T.J. Oshie could be wrong. 

 

Athletes tend to believe in magic and superstition. Very few of them are about verifiable data.

 

It's easier to believe in hockey gods and clutch and "bulletin board material" and forum ghosts and miracles than the idea that athletes are humans and humans can be both predictable and unpredictable. 

 

It's a much better thought that some of these guys just have some inherent GUTS or DETERMINATION which they were born with which has nothing to do with their own physical skill or coached understand and everything to do with triumph of will, and maybe there have been times that's true. But for the most part, it's more about who has the more skill and intelligence, not some triumph of will.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 458
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I mean I'll give it a 4.5 for trolling.

So Nashville went to the Cup finals last year but only managed the semi-finals this year. So I guess they are getting worse each year. But every move they made was pure genius, how could it be?

List of most goals scored since 2011 heading into this season   Ovechkin Stamkos Pavelski Pacioretty . . . . . . . . . .

Posted Images

6 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

Athletes tend to believe in magic and superstition. Very few of them are about verifiable data.

 

It's easier to believe in hockey gods and clutch and "bulletin board material" and forum ghosts and miracles than the idea that athletes are humans and humans can be both predictable and unpredictable. 

 

It's a much better thought that some of these guys just have some inherent GUTS or DETERMINATION which they were born with which has nothing to do with their own physical skill or coached understand and everything to do with triumph of will, and maybe there have been times that's true. But for the most part, it's more about who has the more skill and intelligence, not some triumph of will.

Skill and intelligence are components of clutch as well, in addition to triumph of will. I believe that someone who can anticipate plays early and think on a higher level will have a better chance of developing into a clutch performer. I also believe that the skill has to be there as well. Clutch is mainly a mental state though and this triumph of will is certainly a component. 

 

There are certainly players of the exact same skill level who perform differently under the same environment. One keeps arguing that skill is a synonym for clutch but this overlooks the extremely skilled players who never get it done individually during the most important games (again there is a team element), as well as the less skilled who perform above expectation, over an extended period of time. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Skill and intelligence are components of clutch as well, in addition to triumph of will. I believe that someone who can anticipate plays early and think on a higher level will have a better chance of developing into a clutch performer. I also believe that the skill has to be there as well. Clutch is mainly a mental state though and this triumph of will is certainly a component. 

 

There are certainly players of the exact same skill level who perform differently under the same environment. One keeps arguing that skill is a synonym for clutch but this overlooks the extremely skilled players who never get it done individually during the most important games (again there is a team element), as well as the less skilled who perform above expectation, over an extended period of time. 

 

The problem is that every athlete in the history of sports has a capability to be clutch given the right circumstances. Amateur or pro. I bet we can all think of a moment when we played street hockey when some kid, maybe even us, pulled a clutch goal or save or shot block. Or we all know someone who was a superstar under pressure on the streets but never made it to the pros. There's plenty of examples of clutch hockey players in junior who never became clutch in the NHL: see Adam Henrique.

 

Clutch is more coincidence than quantifiable attribute.

 

(I should be clear that this wasn't my viewpoint forever and it took me a long time to come to this conclusion. If anything, I think the analytics community tries to disregard random/chaos too much in their charts, and random/chaos is clutch. "Margin of error" needs to be added to their vocabulary.)

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I've read many of the same articles which strongly suggest that clutch is a myth. Apparently some have adopted it as the ultimate proof that it's actually true regardless of what anyone has to say on the topic. 

 

Being the coach of a generally individual sport myself has made it impossible for me to accept that this is true even in team sports. 

 

We've seen the argument which essentially states that every player in the NHL should be clutch by now because they have played the sport their entire life and they are professionals. 

 

On the other hand, in a sport like golf or tennis, it is in fact the skill level that is there for these professionals because they have played the sport their entire life. The difference between Roger Federer and Andy Roddick is their mental strength during the biggest moments. One can say that Federer is just better than Andy, but place them in a meaningless environment just hitting back and forth to 15 points and Roddick will proceed to beat Federer roughly 50% of the time. The skill level between 1st in the world and 10th in the world is not huge. The difference comes in how one handles their emotions. Trust me when I say that every top 10 tennis player can serve, hit a forehand, hit a backhand etc. just as well as one another. The difference is far from purely skill, and more like 50%/50%.

 

Mental strength, as well as weakness, is a huge attribute in individual sport and cannot be dismissed just because the individual has teammates. If one's mindstate is 50% important in individual sports, let it be 10% important in a team sport. That's fine. But to say clutch is a myth, is wrong.

 

The definition of clutch itself is very vague as well. 

 

The assumption is that to be clutch,

 

1) a player has to raise their level during a big moment....

 

but it could also be

 

2) an ability to simply outperform the opponent on a consistent basis during important moments (rather than one's self)

 

In hockey, this can be just as much outperforming the line you are matched up against series after series, on a consistent basis. This won't necessarily show up in the stastistics or even in the outcome of the game.  

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Coaching kids team sports is NOT the NHL.  You cant compare the two.

 

In the general population are there people who respond better to pressure than others.  Sure.

 

By the time you make the nhl... youve succeeded in pressure... tge first time you make a team at any level... the first time you see scouts... playing in junior playoffs... succeeding in the ahl when you are trying to make the team.  Those who wash out couldnt deal with the pressure.

 

.01 % of athletes make this stage.  Those who cant handle it have already been filtered out.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

2) an ability to simply outperform the opponent on a consistent basis during important moments (rather than one's self)

 

So what's an important moment?

 

The first goal? A shorthanded goal? A powerplay goal? A tying goal? A game winning goal? What about saves? Which of the 20-40 saves a goalie makes was important? When the game was tied? Breakaway? Two on one? First shot? Final minute? When the forwards get caught on a long shift and stapled to their zone? What about defensive plays? Blocked shot? Clearing a rebound? Stealing the puck? Breaking up a pass? 

 

The Washington Capitals for years now have been accused as playoff chokers and having no heart when Ovechkin is one of the best playoff performers of his generation and Brayden Holtby has had one of the highest save percentages of all goalies in the playoffs for the past 5 years. Now they are in the final and people can't stop talking about how clutch they are. Funny that. It's almost like an inherent bias everyone has towards games of value...

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

So what's an important moment?

 

The first goal? A shorthanded goal? A powerplay goal? A tying goal? A game winning goal? What about saves? Which of the 20-40 saves a goalie makes was important? When the game was tied? Breakaway? Two on one? First shot? Final minute? When the forwards get caught on a long shift and stapled to their zone? What about defensive plays? Blocked shot? Clearing a rebound? Stealing the puck? Breaking up a pass? 

 

The Washington Capitals for years now have been accused as playoff chokers and having no heart when Ovechkin is one of the best playoff performers of his generation and Brayden Holtby has had one of the highest save percentages of all goalies in the playoffs for the past 5 years. Now they are in the final and people can't stop talking about how clutch they are. Funny that. It's almost like an inherent bias everyone has towards games of value...

Come on, obviously is no such thing as Chokers!:rastapop:

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Commandant said:

Matc andre fleury was a choker.  Until this year.  Now hes clutch.

You can be both? :scared:

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

So what's an important moment?

 

The first goal? A shorthanded goal? A powerplay goal? A tying goal? A game winning goal? What about saves? Which of the 20-40 saves a goalie makes was important? When the game was tied? Breakaway? Two on one? First shot? Final minute? When the forwards get caught on a long shift and stapled to their zone? What about defensive plays? Blocked shot? Clearing a rebound? Stealing the puck? Breaking up a pass? 

 

The Washington Capitals for years now have been accused as playoff chokers and having no heart when Ovechkin is one of the best playoff performers of his generation and Brayden Holtby has had one of the highest save percentages of all goalies in the playoffs for the past 5 years. Now they are in the final and people can't stop talking about how clutch they are. Funny that. It's almost like an inherent bias everyone has towards games of value...

I don’t buy in to the concept that Washington is overtly clutch this year but I have bought into the fact that Ovechkin has been a shadow of Crosby over the years, despite having talent around him and being ridiculously talented himself. People always claim Ovechkin doesn’t have a Malkin and it’s true, but he does have a Backstrom, and has had players of talent on the team.

 

It’s too early to claim that Washington and their leadership is any different than it ever has been. Despite myself having chosen them to win this final series, they still have yet to accomplish the ultimate goal and so it’s too early to claim anything is different within their leadership core. Losing to Vegas would be something.

 

Joe Thornton is also know has a “playoff bust” and he has dominated the playoffs throughout his career outside of one season in Boston where he had 0 points in 7 games. I never said I agree that he is indeed a playoff choker on a personal level himself. The San Jose Sharks have been, as well the Washington Capitals.

 

As you listed, there are many important moments. Some are macro-level and others are micro-level.

 

The entire playoffs are more important than the final game of the season, in most instances. The second round is more important than the first. The difference gets amplified once you reach the semi finals and Stanley cup final, because there are many players who rarely “get there”. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that people love having players like Chris Kunitz on their team. It’s also no coincidence that Crosby and Toews/Kane win multiple Cups.

 

Commandant’s argument that NHL pros “have been there before” is invalid when you take into consideration that some NHL players rarely go on deep runs in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Ever hear the expression “I feel like a kid again”? It’s not hard to imagine the excitement of a player who reaches the Stanley Cup final for the first time in his 10 year career.

 

Lars Eller has had some great success this year in the playoffs and also has some of the most experience on their team after having been to the conference final with the Habs. Why can’t clutch be learned? Marc Andre Fleury has not been a choker for a long time. He used to be and then he had flashes of the opposite. Last year he got replaced by Murray but that’s a situation akin to having Schneider and Luongo on the same team

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

I don’t buy in to the concept that Washington is overtly clutch this year but I have bought into the fact that Ovechkin has been a shadow of Crosby over the years, despite having talent around him and being ridiculously talented himself. People always claim Ovechkin doesn’t have a Malkin and it’s true, but he does have a Backstrom, and has had players of talent on the team.

 

It’s too early to claim that Washington and their leadership is any different than it ever has been. Despite myself having chosen them to win this final series, they still have yet to accomplish the ultimate goal and so it’s too early to claim anything is different within their leadership core. Losing to Vegas would be something.

 

Joe Thornton is also know has a “playoff bust” and he has dominated the playoffs throughout his career outside of one season in Boston where he had 0 points in 7 games. I never said I agree that he is indeed a playoff choker on a personal level himself. The San Jose Sharks have been, as well the Washington Capitals.

 

As you listed, there are many important moments. Some are macro-level and others are micro-level.

 

The entire playoffs are more important than the final game of the season, in most instances. The second round is more important than the first. The difference gets amplified once you reach the semi finals and Stanley cup final, because there are many players who rarely “get there”. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that people love having players like Chris Kunitz on their team. It’s also no coincidence that Crosby and Toews/Kane win multiple Cups.

 

Commandant’s argument that NHL pros “have been there before” is invalid when you take into consideration that some NHL players rarely go on deep runs in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Ever hear the expression “I feel like a kid again”? It’s not hard to imagine the excitement of a player who reaches the Stanley Cup final for the first time in his 10 year career.

 

Lars Eller has had some great success this year in the playoffs and also has some of the most experience on their team after having been to the conference final with the Habs. Why can’t clutch be learned? Marc Andre Fleury has not been a choker for a long time. He used to be and then he had flashes of the opposite. Last year he got replaced by Murray but that’s a situation akin to having Schneider and Luongo on the same team

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the problem... if its a skill that can be learned... it goes up as you learn it and might go down again at the end of your career as you age. 

 

With fleury, he was very good in the 2008 playoffs... he was mediocre in 2009 (but had the big memorable save) and the Pens won in spite of him... he was awful for 4-5 years after that, then he was bad in Pens first cup run... then he was good but replaced by murray in the 2nd, then he has been great this year. 

 

Its peaks and valleys.  That doesn't look like a skill that is learned.  That looks like randomness.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Smith Pelly’s turning out to be quite the clutch playoff goal scorer. Unfortunate that his worst playoff was with us. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not a Caps fan, but seems a done deal now and is good to see a different franchise get 1st cup.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, DON said:

Not a Caps fan, but seems a done deal now and is good to see a different franchise get 1st cup.

 

See, a Caps fan would assume this is just the team setting the fanbase up for even greater heartbreak. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Trizzak said:

 

See, a Caps fan would assume this is just the team setting the fanbase up for even greater heartbreak. 

Ya, fat lady aint quite singing yet, but...

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Trizzak said:

 

See, a Caps fan would assume this is just the team setting the fanbase up for even greater heartbreak. 

 

Yes, given this team's history, I wouldn't relax until it's all said and done.

 

Nonetheless, I am personally very pleased that this Cup-to-Vegas abomination appears to be finally hitting the wall. And Metallica is right, watching Ovi lift that Cup will be must-see TV.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • dlbalr unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...