Gainey's Dilemma: and the new NHL landscape and RFA,FA

[HabsWEST]

Here we go,

Erat signs a 30 plus million 7 year contract as he is about to become a RFA:

2007-08 76 23 34 57 -3 40 163 14.11 HE is 26 years old, and picked 191 in his draft year

Andrei Kostitsyn:

2007-08 78 26 27 53 +15 29 156 16.67 , 23 years old and picked 10th overall

Other players like Penner with 23 goals this year, is making 4 million plus on a 5 year contract.

Look at Mike Richards contract etc...

Andrei will be looking for this type of contract,

What about, HIGGINS next year ( 3 20 plus goal seasons)

KOMISAREK as well, Plekanec, etc...

with KOIVU and KOVALEV next year, who stays who leaves, rumuors of Saku joining wild and his brother Mikku( how true are these??

Gainey will have to navigate through these negotiations very carefully, and more young players have to come up to replace some of these departed players.

Maybe at trade deadline, someone like a Higgins will have to go for a rental, maybe his thaughts this year ( would hate to see this happen), but

realty of todays NHL.

PRICE contract will be up in a couple years...and so on...

lets hope this " wait until next year mentality and the 2009 celebrations" not come crashing down with disappointment, and especially if one of these upcoming RFA's, FA's, are gone, and the young core starts breaking away..

WHY ANDREI, CHRIS, and Mike have to all be signed now.... for 4.5 million ( what market warrants) or we lose one of them...

[saskhab]

Higgins is the luxury item of the 5 you mention.

This signing (Erat) for Nashville is as much a statement signing as anything. They obviously like Erat, but the term definitely reeks of "let's sell hope/the Preds are back in business", used to help get new season ticket holders and potentially attract UFA's to the organization.

Really, this contract is not a lot different than Patrick Sharp's 4 year deal, so I'm not that shocked by it. If teams want to commit like this to good 2nd liners than that's their perogative.

[sbhatt]

Jesus...GMs just can't help themselves. I better not ever hear an NHL owner whining about player costs again.

[Wamsley01]

I am not going to stress about what potentially could happen.

If July 1st rolls around and Gainey has left AK vulnerable to be offered an offer sheet then

I will begin to think about it.

As for Martin Erat, this was the 4th straight season of at least 49 points and his second consecutive 57 point season.

So it is not identical to the Kostitsyn situation. Add that his little brother plays on the team and it changes the situation.

A couple of stupid signings does not set market value. Pleks had 47 points last season and signed for 1.7M per.

I am sure that people were worried that he would cost 3M+ going into his negotiation.

I am certainly not going to stress about having a ton of great talent and worry about which ones are going to leave

coming off the best season in 15 years.

With success comes tough decisions. I trust Gainey will make the right decisions.

Edited May 12, 2008 by Wamsley01

[Athlétique.Canadien]

Here we go...

...and that's the way it goes. It's the way it is. What does one do? :?-

BOb will know what to do

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

NHL GMs = blithering idiots.

Except Bob, natch

[tokyohabs]

Signing Komisarek longterm has to be the a.s.a.p. #1 priority.

A Kost will sign for less than Erat. He and his bro could end up a long time here with Plex centering them, rich, young, very successful. I think it will be more than just money - and he'll make the money.

As Saskhabs writes, regrettably Higgins is the one who would be sacrificed at this point. Something tells me it's not going to happen that way, though. I think he needs a full, consistent season in whatever department (o, d) before signing for the megabucks. An arbitration hearing, for example, would be easily won by the Habs.

Just sit them down and talk to them rationally. I'm really not worried at all about our RFA's now.

I'll check the rumours thread for these Koivu-to-Wild shenanigans.

[Habsfan]

Bob has to sign alot of young guys on this team, and he ahs to do it soon. The longer he waits, the more players in the NHL will sign bigger contracts, which will only make the value of our players skyrocket.

Get The Kostitsyn's locked up for 4 years. Sign Higgins to 4 years. Sign Komisarek to 6-8 years. Give Plex a 3 year extension.

Get them all signed ASAP!!!

[saskhab]

What's funny about this Erat contract is to me, 7 years no longer seems that long of a contract anymore.

Bob made a bit of a snide commentary on the way things are going with contracts at the end of the year press conference:

"We don't have any 15 year contracts."

Don't expect a drastic change from Bob.

[Easy Ryder]

Higgins doesn't deserve a long term contract and big money.

He is not a natural goal scorer. Not first elite line, he was not even considered for his national

team again.

Seing him traded would not shock me.

[Chris]

I'm not sure what some of you think is his dilemma? I think some fans get a little paranoid about things. BG does exactly what he should for the good of the team. He won't pick anyone's RFA's. He will Lock up the Habs RFA's who he considers valuable to the team. AK is one of those players. He will give him a fair offer and for 2-4 years.

He will do this with everyone. After next year this team will go over the next hump in getting rid of the old guard. I doubt any of Kovalev, Koivu, Bouillon, Dandy, Begin will be back after next year.

It's then up to Markov, Komi, Higgins, Pleks, Lapierre and the other youth to take the next step.

[saskhab]

If Kovalev and Koivu are still top contributors, it'd be foolish to let them walk just because they're around 35. If they are still leaders and positive contributors on a good team, they should be looked at for positions in the immediate future.

There's no logic in purposely making a team worse. They should ice the best team possible under the salary cap, unless it is obvious that we would need to rebuild.

Kovalev and Koivu will likely only get 2 year contracts maximum from here on out.

[sbhatt]

If Kovalev and Koivu are still top contributors, it'd be foolish to let them walk just because they're around 35. If they are still leaders and positive contributors on a good team, they should be looked at for positions in the immediate future.

There's no logic in purposely making a team worse. They should ice the best team possible under the salary cap, unless it is obvious that we would need to rebuild.

Kovalev and Koivu will likely only get 2 year contracts maximum from here on out.

If they're willing to give healthy hometown discounts and play for below market value, it'd be foolish not to keep them. In the salary cap era, having a few solid contributors at bargain prices is essential.

[Athlétique.Canadien]

hometown discounts...

Yeah, Kovy has made it clear he wants to play where "hockey matters" and he's also said many times how he likes how he's treated versus the way the Rag$ treated him. So, taking this into account I think it's safe to at least hope for a discount in the summer of 2009.

[Chris]

Who exactly has taken a home town discount in the past? Like Souray, Kovalev will take the highest offer if he wants to play. Koivu may take one since he has been on the team his entire career.

Players don't take home town discounts, it's nice for fans to think that but i can't even think one player who has done that. Lemieux maybe but he was a co-owner and wanted the Pens to stay.

[Wamsley01]

You cannot get to attached to players on the downside of their careers.

Teams that consistently win make smart decisions on their veteran players and tend to let them

walk at the right time, or are able to convince them to take a lesser role within the team for a discount.

Players like Modano and Yzerman changed their game for the team as they got older and remained

even though the team dynamic had changed. I could see Koivu doing this, and I could see him doing it

at a discount.

Kovalev may be a productive player at the age of 35, but if he asks for 3-4 years @4M per you let him walk.

By the 3rd-4th year of the contract he will not have altered his game to a 3rd line checker, which means you have

to keep him among your top 6 forwards.

3 years from now are we sure he will be among the 4 best wingers on the team?

Is anybody willing to pay a 37 year old Kovalev 4M+ to take a spot away from the young guns that Gainey has so

carefully cultivated? Kovalev is not irreplaceable on the Canadiens. Nobody is. If Price evolves into a Broduer

type franchise goalie, then he might fit into that category. Other than that, everybody is replaceable.

Last summer it was argued over and over how integral Souray was to the offense. How did they fare without him?

How did Mr. Injury prone one trick pony fare in Edmonton?

Succesful teams CORRECTLY identify their core. They allow replaceable parts to leave over the screams of the

fans and bloggers. This is a cap world, you cannot make a 4M mistake. That mistake could be the difference between

a Stanley Cup and a Semi-Final. Same logic behind why I felt dealing Huet was the right move, and why I do not want Marian

Hossa.

When this team wins the Cup it will not be on the back of Alex Kovalev. He will be a secondary part, and secondary parts

are replaceable.

That being said, if he takes a 1-2 year deal, then he becomes a hell of a lot more desirable.

Edited May 13, 2008 by Wamsley01

[saskhab]

Who exactly has taken a home town discount in the past? Like Souray, Kovalev will take the highest offer if he wants to play. Koivu may take one since he has been on the team his entire career.

Players don't take home town discounts, it's nice for fans to think that but i can't even think one player who has done that. Lemieux maybe but he was a co-owner and wanted the Pens to stay.

It's rare that hometown discounts occur, although it does happen. It's foolish to assume someone will take one, however.

Iginla at $7m doesn't sound like a "discount", but I think he'd be getting well in excess of that if he hit the open market. Ditto Joe Thornton. And Marty Brodeur, who represents himself, has never been the highest paid goalie in the league, and makes $1.5m less than Luongo and Khabibulin do.

Tom Brady has taken less than market value consistently to "build a winner", but I'm sure his massive endorsement deals supplement his income adequately anyways.

Players who sign early often don't think they're signing for less than market value, but the market changes and generally trends upwards. Look at Tomas Kaberle's contract compared to Bryan McCabe, for example. Of course, the downside to signing early is that the player could suffer a major injury in the meantime, to the point where you might have thought twice about that contract.

Yes, Kovalev and Koivu shouldn't be priority #1, but it's foolish to shut the door on them.

And as for the "signing Kovalev for 4 years" assumption, the CBA pretty much lays out the terms of any over 35 player's contract: Every year, even if the player retires, counts against the cap. The past 2 years, the Islanders were still being counted for Garth Snow's cap hit because they had signed him to a 3 year deal when he was over 35 and after 1 year he retired to become the GM. So NO ONE is going to give a 37 year old Kovalev a 4 year deal, especially at the numbers suggested there.

[Wamsley01]

It's rare that hometown discounts occur, although it does happen. It's foolish to assume someone will take one, however.

Iginla at $7m doesn't sound like a "discount", but I think he'd be getting well in excess of that if he hit the open market. Ditto Joe Thornton. And Marty Brodeur, who represents himself, has never been the highest paid goalie in the league, and makes $1.5m less than Luongo and Khabibulin do.

Tom Brady has taken less than market value consistently to "build a winner", but I'm sure his massive endorsement deals supplement his income adequately anyways.

Players who sign early often don't think they're signing for less than market value, but the market changes and generally trends upwards. Look at Tomas Kaberle's contract compared to Bryan McCabe, for example. Of course, the downside to signing early is that the player could suffer a major injury in the meantime, to the point where you might have thought twice about that contract.

Yes, Kovalev and Koivu shouldn't be priority #1, but it's foolish to shut the door on them.

And as for the "signing Kovalev for 4 years" assumption, the CBA pretty much lays out the terms of any over 35 player's contract: Every year, even if the player retires, counts against the cap. The past 2 years, the Islanders were still being counted for Garth Snow's cap hit because they had signed him to a 3 year deal when he was over 35 and after 1 year he retired to become the GM. So NO ONE is going to give a 37 year old Kovalev a 4 year deal, especially at the numbers suggested there.

Kovalev will be a UFA at 36. If he is coming off another 80+ point season he could get a 3 year deal. It is not

beyond the realm of possibility or stupidity. You give GMs a hell of a lot of credit that the majority have not earned.

Does it count for extensions? Modano signed a 5 year deal post lockout at 35, do extensions come under the same ruling?

Because he got close to 5M per. Also some D-men have signed past the age of 35 to more than 2 years.

But I am fine with essentially any player signed to a 1-2 year deal because they are easy to jettison or buy out should they

become a problem. I think Montreal should pursue and roll the dice on guys like Sundin, Shanahan because they are very

low risk.

[Habsfan]

Agreed. Here on out, Koivu and Kovy should only be offered 2 year deals. If they keep producing, then the better it is for the Habs. If they start to suck too much, you can let them go, or take the hit form the year left on their contracts and buy them out!

[sbhatt]

I think two years is the max term you should give a player over 35...anything beyond that should be option years that kick in only if certain performance markers are met.

[Wamsley01]

I think two years is the max term you should give a player over 35...anything beyond that should be option years that kick in only if certain performance markers are met.

Yeah, like Shanahan's contract this year. 2.5M base with incentives that could make it 5M.

I didn't realize they had put that in the new agreement. At least they protected the GMs from themselves

a little bit.

[tokyohabs]

RDS reporting that Erat's contract has been rejected by the NHL, the salary distribution over time does not work out.

I mentioned Arsenal and Arsene Wenger's older-player policy a while back. I wouldn't have any over-35 forward on more than a two year contract. But there is a danger of sentimentality that has to be avoided at all costs. Everyone can be chopped, any season. I enjoyed the end-of-year Habs Prospects report, we might have some real gems there. The kids will help our flexibility enormously.

I've gotten over my nausea and would also love to see Bob make a big pitch for Sundin. Can't say the same about Shanahan, though he is pretty durable and continues to pot over 20 goals - I'd rather have Latendresse given a long stint on the first line, though. Does the NHL have tampering rules, related to approaching players still under contract with other teams? They must.

[saskhab]

I've gotten over my nausea and would also love to see Bob make a big pitch for Sundin. Can't say the same about Shanahan, though he is pretty durable and continues to pot over 20 goals - I'd rather have Latendresse given a long stint on the first line, though. Does the NHL have tampering rules, related to approaching players still under contract with other teams? They must.

Yep, there are tampering rules, and the NHL would love to catch someone. It's been a while for them... the last I can think of I think were the Blues... and maybe it was with Shanahan, I can't remember!

Anyways, Gainey can ask for permission from teams to talk to pending UFA's, but that's all he can do.

To give you an idea of how extreme of measures GM's go to, I think former Vancouver GM Dave Nonis last year had a 12:01 AM flight on July 1 last year to head to Sweden to talk to Forsberg as soon as he became unrestricted.

[Wamsley01]

To give you an idea of how extreme of measures GM's go to, I think former Vancouver GM Dave Nonis last year had a 12:01 AM flight on July 1 last year to head to Sweden to talk to Forsberg as soon as he became unrestricted.

He wasn't allowed to make a flight to Sweden before July 1st?

Couldn't he have flown to Sweden on some business with the Sedin's and then called Forsberg from Sweden @ 12:01?

Edited May 14, 2008 by Wamsley01

[BTH]

Who exactly has taken a home town discount in the past? Like Souray, Kovalev will take the highest offer if he wants to play. Koivu may take one since he has been on the team his entire career.

Players don't take home town discounts, it's nice for fans to think that but i can't even think one player who has done that. Lemieux maybe but he was a co-owner and wanted the Pens to stay.

Plenty of players take hometown discounts, just not for us. After next year, if we choose to re-sign Kovalev, his cost might even go up from what he's getting paid now.