2013-14 Scoring Predictions

[Neech]

Eller was on pace for 50 points last year from the third line.

[Guest Stogey24]

if you can find me ONE legitimate 3rd line center in the league who crossed the 50 point plateau in the league, i'd be seriously impressed. So suggesting Desharnais will be capable of doing it from our 3rd line? and I firmly believe this is where he will end up if Eller keeps up his pace, they will swap line spots during the season. Sorry that is just a tough pill for me to swallow, and I admire the faith and optimism, but I have to call "Habvision Goggles" on that one.

The third line for Montreal one night, could be the first line the next night.

I was just looking through some things. Came across this article. http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/7/25/4555418/conclusions-on-how-the-habs-scored-in-2013 I'm sure most have read it. Just thought it was fairly interesting.

[Link67]

Eller was on pace for 50 points last year from the third line.

On pace for something with only 50% of a season played means nothing, there are points in a season where players who end up with 60 points, are "on pace" for 85.

[dlbalr]

I came across this stat this morning when I was working on something for the site - since 1998-99, the Habs have had more than five 50 point getters just once. Obviously this doesn't preclude it from happening this coming season but it's safe to assume that Pacioretty and Subban will both hit that plateau barring injury - the three centres would then make five 50 point players which doesn't happen often.

I haven't done any of the FF pieces yet (I'm using the break from writing to do some of my behind the scenes tasks in the summer) so I haven't fully done my predictions yet but I tentatively have just one centre hitting at least 50 points (Plekanec) with Desharnais/Eller in the 40's. The Habs are a balanced team which means there's probably going to be a cluster of players in a certain points range; I don't think 50 will be that target but rather something in the high 30's/early 40's.

Speaking of the FF pieces, Gallagher's entry is now on the site. Plekanec's will be up next on the weekend.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

There is always going to be slump moments or someone having a bad season or a line not clicking for a while so shuffles have to happen. Happens with even the best teams.

Therrien rolling three lines is what leads to the belief that there will be more scoring. Maybe nobody hitting high plateaus because of it but more scoring balance. A big reason why there hasn't been five 50 pointers since 98-99 (aside from all of the garbage teams iced pre-lockout) is injury. It will be interesting to see how the team handles it next season but having a lot of potential scorers will probably lend to a better coping with injuries. At least for scoring sake.

[saskhab]

I came across this stat this morning when I was working on something for the site - since 1998-99, the Habs have had more than five 50 point getters just once. Obviously this doesn't preclude it from happening this coming season but it's safe to assume that Pacioretty and Subban will both hit that plateau barring injury - the three centres would then make five 50 point players which doesn't happen often.

I haven't done any of the FF pieces yet (I'm using the break from writing to do some of my behind the scenes tasks in the summer) so I haven't fully done my predictions yet but I tentatively have just one centre hitting at least 50 points (Plekanec) with Desharnais/Eller in the 40's. The Habs are a balanced team which means there's probably going to be a cluster of players in a certain points range; I don't think 50 will be that target but rather something in the high 30's/early 40's.

Speaking of the FF pieces, Gallagher's entry is now on the site. Plekanec's will be up next on the weekend.

Heck, I don't think it's a lock at all that Subban hits 50. His first two full seasons he hit 38 and 36. But I'm with you in terms of being cautious with distribution. There's only so many goals that can be scored. There were only 7 teams above 240 goals scored in 11/12, league median was 222 (Winnipeg), league high was 282 and we don't have Crosby/Malkin/Staal down the middle to do that.

Nashville had 237 goals that year, a top 10 offensive team with balanced offence. Here was what they looked like:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?season=20112012&gameType=2&team=NSH&position=S&country=&status=&viewName=summary#?navid=nav-sts-indiv

TWO guys only that cracked 20 goals. 6 guys between 15-19 goals. Again, this team finished TOP TEN in goals scored.

Weber, BTW, was a Norris candidate that year with 19 goals and 49 points. And a lot of people thought he should've won. We'll see how high PK can get, but I don't think it's a guarantee he even hits 50.

[Psycing]

Injuries are the biggest threat to reduce any player's production. Often a guy might only miss a handful of games to a dozen, come back, and take another handful of games to get back into the groove.

With Therrien poised to roll three solid lines, I believe we'll see fewer players score over 55 points, but more guys landing between 35 and 50 points. Distributed offense is the way to go if you want to keep the team fresh for the duration of a long season.

I guess we'll see if it pans out. I'm sure different players and line combinations will get hot from time to time, but I don't expect anyone to tear it up on a consistent basis. Pacioretty has shown the most promise in that department, and as dbalr mentioned, Subban.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

Pacioretty and Subban are the guys. 70 and 55 points is what we'll get from them. Then probably Plekanec will be around 60. I'd say another forward will hit 50, my money is on Galchenyuk. Another possibility is that BOTH Eller and Desharnais are around 40-45 points, which I think is likely. Still don't get the Eller hysterics...

[Trizzak]

Pacioretty and Subban are the guys. 70 and 55 points is what we'll get from them. Then probably Plekanec will be around 60. I'd say another forward will hit 50, my money is on Galchenyuk. Another possibility is that BOTH Eller and Desharnais are around 40-45 points, which I think is likely. Still don't get the Eller hysterics...

You didn't hear? He's 6'2" 220 lbs... Of course he'll put up more points

[Guest Stogey24]

You didn't hear? He's 6'2" 220 lbs... Of course he'll put up more points

I believe it. You have a lot more confidence with the puck when your feeling big. Probably improve his shot too.

[bbp]

You didn't hear? He's 6'2" 220 lbs... Of course he'll put up more points

I bet its all fat and he'll bust.

[Psycing]

Finishing up my Fantasy Focus article on Carey Price - how many wins do you guys think he'll get this season. In how many games?

[Meller93]

61 games 36 wins

[Lovett's Magnatones]

61 games 36 wins

38 games-45 wins.

[JoeLassister]

38 games-45 wins.

Would most likely secure him the Vezina...

[dlbalr]

It has been a little while since I've updated this but we've had several more player profiles done in the past couple of weeks. The most recent is Galchenyuk whose article just went online this morning. http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=3172

[nihilz]

Pacioretty 38G 74Pts

Subban 18G 66Pts

Plekanec 21G 63Pts

Briere 22G 54Pts

Eller 16G 52Pts

Galchenyuk 26G 52Pts

Gallagher 22G 47Pts

Markov 7G 47Pts

Desharnais 10G 43Pts

Gionta 20G 38Pts

Bourque 16G 35Pts

Diaz 4G 35Pts

[illWill]

Not a scoring prediction but a random prediction: Carey Price will be the goalie in net as Canada loses in the Olympics. After that he wins the Conn Smythe, leading the Habs to cup #25.

[dlbalr]

Pacioretty 43G 76Pts

Subban 19G 67Pts

Plekanec 22G 63Pts

Briere 24G 58Pts

Eller 17G 56Pts

Galchenyuk 27G 54Pts

Gallagher 22G 51Pts

Markov 9G 49Pts

Desharnais 11G 45Pts

Gionta 20G 38Pts

Bourque 17G 36Pts

Diaz 5G 36Pts

That's 236 goals you have there with only 12 players. There's a good chance the unlisted ones will score some as well - if they combine for 25 (not unrealistic for 8-12 lower level guys - they'll likely get more), the Habs would average 3.2 goals per game. Only 1 team in each conference was that high last year in a shortened season. I think you're a bit optimistic on a lot of these; nine 45-point guys on a team is pretty hard to accomplish.

[nihilz]

That's 236 goals you have there with only 12 players. There's a good chance the unlisted ones will score some as well - if they combine for 25 (not unrealistic for 8-12 lower level guys - they'll likely get more), the Habs would average 3.2 goals per game. Only 1 team in each conference was that high last year in a shortened season. I think you're a bit optimistic on a lot of these; nine 45-point guys on a team is pretty hard to accomplish.

Hmmm.. point taken.. Im at 220 now.. I hope that's mathematically possible cause I can't trim anymore lmao.. Yea I was definitely thinking best case scenario a la homer..

Pacioretty 38G 74Pts

Subban 18G 66Pts

Plekanec 21G 63Pts

Briere 22G 54Pts

Eller 16G 52Pts

Galchenyuk 26G 52Pts

Gallagher 22G 47Pts

Markov 7G 47Pts

Desharnais 10G 43Pts

Gionta 20G 38Pts

Bourque 16G 35Pts

Diaz 4G 35Pts

[sakiqc]

Subban 25G 86Pts - contract year, full year, great shape, no reason why he doesn't destroy the league (again)

Briere 33G 81Pts - will kill it on the PP with Subban, and his line will work no matter who's centering it.

Plekanec 15G 62Pts - I expect to see him split time with Eller on Briere's line

Desharnais 14G 60Pts - I expect him to increase his PPG from last year difficult first new contract season

Pacioretty 26G 56Pts - I expect him to keep his pace of the past 2 seasons

Eller 22G 56Pts - should see increased icetime and PP time

Markov 12G 50Pts - with attention on PK, will continue to perform. plus will play to be considered for Sotchi

Galchenyuk 16G 34Pts - 2nd year slump - every sophomore gets it

Gionta 16G 32Pts - should be a good contributor in a carousel of wingers on the top 2 lines

Bourque 17G 32Pts - should be a good contributor in a carousel of wingers on the top 2 lines

Gallagher 13G 29Pts - 2nd year slump - every sophomore gets it

Diaz 5G 27Pts - very good 2nd wave offensive dman

[dlbalr]

Hmmm.. point taken.. Im at 218 now.. I hope that's mathematically possible cause I can't trim anymore lmao.. Yea I was definitely thinking best case scenario a la homer..

I like the looks of that more. I just wrote the fantasy profile on Desharnais and the numbers I came up with are pretty close to what you have and it's the same for Bourque (the other profile I've done so far).

[nihilz]

I like the looks of that more. I just wrote the fantasy profile on Desharnais and the numbers I came up with are pretty close to what you have and it's the same for Bourque (the other profile I've done so far).

I hope they put DD in best case scenario to show case him early on. He just doesn't fit in short term, never mind long. At this point its basically DD or Plek that have to go. Unless they plan on keeping Gally at wing. DD is surrounded by talent that is simply more diverse than he is.

[illWill]

Hmmm.. point taken.. Im at 220 now.. I hope that's mathematically possible cause I can't trim anymore lmao.. Yea I was definitely thinking best case scenario a la homer..

Pacioretty 38G 74Pts

Subban 18G 66Pts

Plekanec 21G 63Pts

Briere 22G 54Pts

Eller 16G 52Pts

Galchenyuk 26G 52Pts

Gallagher 22G 47Pts

Markov 7G 47Pts

Desharnais 10G 43Pts

Gionta 20G 38Pts

Bourque 16G 35Pts

Diaz 4G 35Pts

I likey, except I expect Chucky to have a big big year as long as he's given the chance.

[Seb]

sakicq is ballsy.