Am I over-reacting after another crappy effort?

[hab29RETIRED]

The thing about Price is, IF he can carry this level of play into the playoffs on a regular basis, then we are in a rare position of not needing an overpowering roster to become contenders, because we have a dominant goalie. Think of it as the "Roy" model - if you can get a strong, not a dominating, team in front of him, then you have a chance to win the Cup every single year.

So that alters the picture. We don't need to become Chicago II if we have a goalie like that. We just need to ice a lineup that is a notch below Chicago's, instead of three notches below (which is where we are now). In that sense, Price may be an irreplaceable asset.

Frankly, I'd rather try and build a Chicago type of team than a team that lives or dies with goaltending.

If you look at all the great hall of fame goalies like Dryden and Roy, these guys carried their teams in the playoffs. Price hasn't shown he can do that. This year he looks like he has put it together, but as good as he was against Boston a few years ago, Thomas beat him out.

There are a LOT of really good goalies that don't get a real shot, because there are only 30 positions, so as much as Dryden and Roy were my favourite players on those habs teams, I'd much have a great team with good goaltending, over a good/average team with great goaltending. The model has worked for both Detroit and Chicago. Both won multiple cups with different goalies.

[hab29RETIRED]

Trade Price ? Trade Price is just crazy talk.... I'd trade Max, Pleks, Markov and even Subban before Price...... getting a goaltender is easier than what maybe a top 3 forward? Nope.... it's not.

LA didn't have the best goalie in the league, played 2 different goalies this year and didn't miss a beat. When Quick was hurt last year, they played Bernier, didn't miss a beat.

Chicago won with Neimi, dumped him and won with Crawford. Detroit won with Vernon, hasek and Osbad.

I'm not saying to go to the Philly goaltending is not important model, but after seeing us watching Theodore, Halak and Price keep us hanging around, but sinking as soon as their was a chink in their armour, I prefer the detroit and Chicago model.

It's one thing when a Roy or Dryden come out of no where and win a cup as rookies (or earlier like Dryden or Ward), but price has been in the league 6 years. He has finally put it together but the team i front of him probably cannot win a 7 round series against Pittsburgh, let alone the western powerhouses.

[dlbalr]

Trading for Miller would mean being willing to open the the vault to resign him. Buffalo is going to be a basement dweller for at least next year if not longer. Next year is McDavid. Supposed to be the best player since Crosby. This is the type of move Pollack used to make.

Myers is starting to turn things around under Nolan. Main issue in Buffalo is they had the Gainey model for player development and they rushed Grigernko in like Gainey rushed in Ribs, Lats and MaxPac.

Myers is a legitimate top 3 dman with size and skill. It takes time for those guys to develop. Remember how long it took Pronger to put it together?

Grigs will be a stud. Gauranteed. If in three years we have Galchenyuk and Grigs as our #1 and #2 centres, we'd be solid.

Teams don't deal potential top-10 picks without lottery protection now (see the Vanek to NYI trade, the 1st rounder is lottery protected). You're not going to get a team to give up an unprotected top pick anymore, especially a team who needs goalies like they do a hole in the head. They have Enroth and Hackett, two good to better-than-good young goalies, waiting in the wings so they'd have no need for Price.

You and I clearly disagree on Myers. I think his contract is one of the worst in all of hockey, to the effect where I think teams may want additional incentive to take him for free. At $5.75 M, you're not looking for a guy who is very slowly developing into maybe a 2nd pairing d-man. You want a high impact player and that is something Myers clearly isn't. As for Grigorenko, I'm not sold on him either. As you noted his development is really screwed up but after throwing a fit upon being sent back to junior, I highly doubt he'll accept an AHL assignment and he clearly won't be ready for full-time NHL duty next year. With his first 2 ELC years already being burnt, if he goes to the minors next year, he'll be in the KHL the next.

Let's run the numbers for a minute, assuming the Habs re-sign Markov (as you've said in another thread):

Goalies: $7.5 - $8 million (Miller's new deal will probably be around Price's AAV)

Defence: Subban (8), Markov (6), Emelin/Gorges (8 combined), Myers (5.75), two other d-men on the cheap (2 combined)

That's a cap hit of around $37.75 million, or about 53% of next year's projected cap. When this team can't score now, massively reducing the amount of money available to be spent on forwards is not a good idea, it's a terrible one. For the record, the team is spending about 43% on D/G this year and spent around that percentage last year as well.

Considering Bergevin has reservations about dealing Bourque in the conference, he sure as heck isn't going to deal Price in the division to potentially increase the odds of winning a draft lottery with a pick that may or may not have lottery protection in a deal with a new GM who isn't going to deal away said pick to fill a position that the team has zero need to fill.

[hab29RETIRED]

Teams don't deal potential top-10 picks without lottery protection now (see the Vanek to NYI trade, the 1st rounder is lottery protected). You're not going to get a team to give up an unprotected top pick anymore, especially a team who needs goalies like they do a hole in the head. They have Enroth and Hackett, two good to better-than-good young goalies, waiting in the wings so they'd have no need for Price.

You and I clearly disagree on Myers. I think his contract is one of the worst in all of hockey, to the effect where I think teams may want additional incentive to take him for free. At $5.75 M, you're not looking for a guy who is very slowly developing into maybe a 2nd pairing d-man. You want a high impact player and that is something Myers clearly isn't. As for Grigorenko, I'm not sold on him either. As you noted his development is really screwed up but after throwing a fit upon being sent back to junior, I highly doubt he'll accept an AHL assignment and he clearly won't be ready for full-time NHL duty next year. With his first 2 ELC years already being burnt, if he goes to the minors next year, he'll be in the KHL the next.

Let's run the numbers for a minute, assuming the Habs re-sign Markov (as you've said in another thread):

Goalies: $7.5 - $8 million (Miller's new deal will probably be around Price's AAV)

Defence: Subban (8), Markov (6), Emelin/Gorges (8 combined), Myers (5.75), two other d-men on the cheap (2 combined)

That's a cap hit of around $37.75 million, or about 53% of next year's projected cap. When this team can't score now, massively reducing the amount of money available to be spent on forwards is not a good idea, it's a terrible one. For the record, the team is spending about 43% on D/G this year and spent around that percentage last year as well.

Considering Bergevin has reservations about dealing Bourque in the conference, he sure as heck isn't going to deal Price in the division to potentially increase the odds of winning a draft lottery with a pick that may or may not have lottery protection in a deal with a new GM who isn't going to deal away said pick to fill a position that the team has zero need to fill.

Myers cap hit is $5.5, but but makes $5M since he had a front-end loaded deal, so the actual salary will be declining.

Which means his contract will be easier to move as his actual salary continues to decline.

We can continue to disagree about Myers and Grigs. I think with a change in scenery/management, both can be impact players. I think that Myers still has a potential to be a top pairing dman and be at least a high-end #3 dman.

ANyway, i wouldn't make the deal without getting the buffalo picks. Your original reply was that there's was no way you'd make the deal - not that buffalo wouldn't without cap protection.

As far as the cap situation goes, there is no way i'd keep Gorges. He's a bottom pairing dman and is not worth what he is making. As far as Markov, i'd resign him, if its for his current salary for up to 3 years, otherwise, you have to move him.

[HabsFanOhio]

Funny things happen at the trade deadline. We got a 2nd rounder for Hal Gill! Wait until the trade deadline, see where we are, then make some decisions.

Bourque is a big body who can skate and has a history of scoring goals. Some GM's of playoff-bound teams might view him as a 3rd liner who can make a difference in a long playoff run, and might believe he would benefit from superior linemates, better coaching and better overall utilization in their system of play.

I would also make Markov available at the deadline. People forget that he never was that great a skater; now he's lost a full step below that. At the beginning of the year he was effective playing with PK because PK would cut across the ice to block people going around Markov, or he would cover for Markov's pinches that left him out of position. His cap hit is high, and he will want term to stay. GM's around the league will want his PP skills in a playoff run. He's a great trading chip.

Same goes for Gionta. He's not scoring in the Habs system now, but GM's may view that as having to do with MT's brilliant dump and chase strategy. As an article posted on this site a few weeks ago clearly demonstrated, he's a possession beast, can play in all situations, and is defensively awesome. but he has lost a step, and his shots are nowhere near as crisp since his injury. Perfect deadline trade bait.

MB needs to decide on a timeline to build this team. For me, it's 3-4 years out. Get some high picks or better yet, prospects, in order to shorten the development window.

While I'm at it, they should make PK the captain.

[dlbalr]

Myers cap hit is $5.5, but but makes $5M since he had a front-end loaded deal, so the actual salary will be declining.

ANyway, i wouldn't make the deal without getting the buffalo picks. Your original reply was that there's was no way you'd make the deal - not that buffalo wouldn't without cap protection.

I research everything cap-wise but the Myers contract and I happen to be wrong on the cap hit for him...that'll learn me.

To go back to the Pollock example, in the past, if you finished last (or had the pick of the team that finished last), you picked first. Now, if you finish last (or have the pick of the team that finishes last), you have a 75% chance of not picking first. It's certainly far from a guarantee that even if you could secure their 2015 unprotected pick that you'd actually pick 1st, the risk is significantly greater now than it was then. It's also worth considering that there will be more teams tanking than just the Sabres next year, the competition for last will have more teams in the mix.

As for the last bit, I wouldn't make the deal under any circumstance. I don't think the Habs would (even if it's just for fear of trading in-division, nor do I think they want to move Price, nor do I think they'd want Miller and his baggage in the room), and I don't think Buffalo would (since their GM's first deal won't be dealing away their 1st rounder next year, nor would it be for a goalie when they don't need one, nor do I think they'd risk potentially dealing the #1 pick if they were to get it in the division). If the Sabres were to entertain moving their 1st next year - in any circumstance - they'll demand lottery protection (or at least top-5).

[HabsFanOhio]

Just to completely empty the sack... if ANY deal can be found for DD, unload him. Anyone who thinks this guy can be a #2 center is crazy. No defensive capability and his size is a liability. Gives up a goal for every goal his line scores. When Chucky comes back, give him DD's job and his winger.

MT needs to stop moving problems around. Put Bournival with Pleks and leave him there. Eller is a perfect #3....keep him there and play him at #3 center. Put Gallagher back with Eller. Leblanc should get a regular shift.

Murray and Bouillon to the pressbox. PK with Markov. Call up Pateryn. Play Beaulieu. Play Emelin on his best side. Play your best players in their natural spots until you run out of fits, then fill. Playing PK with Murray shows how desperate and disoriented MT really is!

[brobin]

I don't see a big trade fixing this mess. We would be far better off dealing our non core players for picks and prospects and keep building.

Frankly, I had hoped for another tank year last year to really get some young talent, but making the most out of higher draft picks is usually necessary to succeed over time. It will take more time then most people here want.

As far as right now, I would find out who the discontented players are and get rid of them, or at least one or two. Send a message that this belly aching in the room won't be tolerated. Guys like Bourque have to go. Having a guy who puts in that little effort routinely isn't someone I want around the kids. As much as Gionta struggles and may need to be sent packing at the deadline, my impression is that he and guys like Pleks are hard working professionals. I suspect they set a better example then guys like Bourque.

If there is stench in the room from guys who seem happy to collect a paycheque and ride out their contracts, then dump them as fast as possible.

If history is any guide, picks and prospects will make a bigger difference in a few years then a sideways trade of our garbage for your garbage.

Another big step will be for MB to sign key FA, not washed up shrimps. He can't afford another mistake like Briere over Jagr. It isn't just the points...Jagr sets a great example of hard work and fitness... Briere not so much.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

For some reason, the "quote" function isn't working for me, but I pretty much agree with Ohio's post earlier about deadline moves. Except for the part about making PK the captain! That honour should go to Pleks, but (sigh) will probably fall to Gorges.

[HabsFanOhio]

Agreed. I sat 1st row behind the Habs bench during the debacle in Florida. Bourque is absolutely disinterested. He just can't wait to end his shift and get off the ice. Blank and vacuous expression on his face the whole time. There were only a few players who had any life on the bench...PK, Pleks, Gally, Gorges, Eller....it looked a lot to me like they had completely tuned out MT.

I want a Captain who is a difference-maker, who shows no quit, and plays with passion. PK...

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Yeah...but you also need maturity to be captain. It's a minor point, but I'd wait a few years before bestowing PK with the "C."

[Neech]

Too bad the Olympic break didn't start this week, that would have been perfect. Especially for Emelin. I see us finally getting some decent results before the break, and then having to start from scratch again afterwards.

[brobin]

Yeah, it is too early for PK. He deals with enough without that crap on top.

Pleks is quiet, but may make a good captain. I suspect he would be one of the most respected in the room.

[hab29RETIRED]

I take my question from last night back. I don't think I was over-reacting.

This team needs changes. to get embarrassed like this AT HOME. Saterday night on CBC, after getting killed the last couple of games. Unacceptable.

Major structural changes are needed - including a coaching change. I think the team has finally quit on MT and tuned him out.

But a coaching change on its own is just a temporary boast and won't address the structural weaknesses with the defense, the lack of offence, the number of washed up has beens (even if they do put in the solid professional effort like Gionta) and the amount of useless garbage passengers (bourque).

There are just too many guys playing like crap for us to hold on to a playoff spot - which a lot of guys here were saying was pretty much sewn up a couple of weeks ago.

We need IMMEDIATE change.

MT time is up, but that is not enough. At the very least get rid of a passenger like Bourque as as a starting point. Diaz is not playing, play him to showcase him a bit, or trade him. You can't just sit on him until the trade deadline and hope to improve.

At this stage, Bouillon is just taking a spot and holding up development opportunities. He should ONLY be playing IF we have a bunch of injuries, otherwise rotate the kids.

MB needs to look at a market for Gorges and Gionta who are clearly declining assets. Gorges could probably in a package get a pretty good young player out of Edmonton. DD MUST be moved before he is goes on another prolonged slump and has no value.

For friggin sake, we are playing a CRAPPY capitals team and getting EMBARRASSED!!!

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Being close to the game in Detroit, the only ones who looked like they cared were Moen, Gionta and the kids (Gallagher, Beaulieu, Leblanc, Bournival). Subban looked pissed off all game, same with Price. Plek and Gorges looked frustrated. The rest looked like they just clocked in at a call centre.

I had some other observations I'll talk about another time like how Therrien coached but yeah, the longer Bergevin keeps this club intact the longer this slide will go. The players are zoning out.

[hab29RETIRED]

I don't see why MB can't go to someone like Guy Boucher or Crawford and say, do you want the job until the end of this year - same approach the Winnipeg is taking and its working out quite well for them.

What i said about Price last night - only so long you can keep bailing these bums out before you thow up your arms and say screw it. I can see that happening after the olympics, unless MB starts doing his friggin job.

[dlbalr]

I don't see why MB can't go to someone like Guy Boucher or Crawford and say, do you want the job until the end of this year - same approach the Winnipeg is taking and its working out quite well for them.

He could but there's no guarantee either (or anyone else) would accept. I don't think Crawford leaves Zurich on a 3-4 month contract, he'd want some sort of commitment beyond this year to leave midseason. Boucher I believe is still getting paid by Tampa this year so he can afford to be selective and wait for a more permanent situation to come in. Or either of them could accept, no one knows for sure. If a decision is made to make a change for the rest of the year only (and I don't think we'll see news of a firing tomorrow), it's probably either Lefebvre or Jodoin on the interim basis. I shuddered as I typed that as both are terrifying options.

[hab29RETIRED]

He could but there's no guarantee either (or anyone else) would accept. I don't think Crawford leaves Zurich on a 3-4 month contract, he'd want some sort of commitment beyond this year to leave midseason. Boucher I believe is still getting paid by Tampa this year so he can afford to be selective and wait for a more permanent situation to come in. Or either of them could accept, no one knows for sure. If a decision is made to make a change for the rest of the year only (and I don't think we'll see news of a firing tomorrow), it's probably either Lefebvre or Jodoin on the interim basis. I shuddered as I typed that as both are terrifying options.

If Lefebvre who doesn't look like he deserves to coach Hamilton is brought in, I for one would support a vancouver like riot!

Hell Lefebvre should be fired along with MT!!!!

[PMAC]

No over-reation because you have outlined a plan..that is in many ways probably not that disimilar to MB's

Expiring Guys we NEED to dump next year:

Gionta - washed up and doubt MB has the cohones to move him at the deadline Agree

Bouillon - washed up-- Agree, but I think that he was a stop-gap/extra insurance signing this year and that there is virtually no chance he will be re-signed

Expiring guys who SHOULD be moved at the deadline:

Diaz - skilled dman, but not a guy who is going to help us take the next step. I wouldn't mind seeing Diaz moved for a decent return

Guys we need to move: Agree with all, but how do we move all of these pieces without taking back a steaming pile of dung in return? And how do we do it without completely disrupting the team--assuming of course that the team is neither as bad as it is now or a good as it was earlier in the year.

Briere- garbage

DD - one dimensional and entirely dependent on Maxpac

Bourque - what you would get if a Skunk, cockroach and a rat were to have a 3 way and mate

Gorges - too much money for a 5th dman and overpaid to be a cheerleader

Guys who need a kick in the ass:

Prust - hasn't come close to resembling the guy we saw last year I have a sneaking suspicion that he is hurt

The Guys that keep you hoping that this team has a future:

-Price - top 5 goalie

-Subban - top 5 dman

-MaxPac - one of the best contracts for a young scorer

-Gallagher - the little energizer bunny that keeps going games and games after the rest of his team quits

-Galchenyuk - a star waiting for a breakout

-Pleks - poised to be captain and only consistent player not named Price

-Emelin - SHOULD regain pre-injury form next year (HOPEFULLY)

Question Marks:

-Markov - is first half Markov or second half Markov closer to the player we'll see next next year Somewhere in the middle, I would think--useful, but not consistently dominant.

-Eller - can he be consistent if he has consistent line mates who don't have hands of stone or sound like Moen

Bright Lights in Hamilton, who hopefully make it in the big city:

-Beauleau - hopefully he stays in Montreal the rest of this year

-Tinordi

I've been thinking, is this enough to hope for the future, or do we need to make a drastic move??? A few weeks i suggested Pleks as being the only guy who could bring the return needed and keep the young core in tact.

What about a more drastic option?? What could Price bring??? Would a team like the Oilers throw major young players and picks to to make us think about moving Price???The nuclear option if MB decides to completely blow up the roster...don't see it happening

Before anyone starts bringing up the Roy trade, i'm talking about the type of return Roy SHOULD have yielded (Sakic or Forsburg), if Houle had gone to see the wizard of oz for a brain. Could Price Yield Hall and Eberle?? Hall and a 1st this year and next (with the eye clearly on next year's top pic)???

Price is standing on his head and we are still getting killed.

Despite my comments expressing more faith in this year's team than many on here, the losing streak and the way that they are losing is hard to take. I would be happy if MB was able to jetison Bourque for a useful player and parlays Diaz into an asset if he is not being resigned.

[brobin]

This team can't keep changing coaches every time they hit the skids for a bit. The on,y coaching change that has statistically improved the team (coincidence or not), is MT.

We don't have a coaching problem, we have a talent problem. You could make the argument that this is a 500 team that MT had playing over their heads for stretches. That never lasts 82 games.

As for the deadline, the reality is unless the Habs are more then six points out, they don't dump players. They would be roasted for giving up. Yes, if they can unload Bourque for example, they would do it, but they won't dump Markov, Gionta, etc as long as they have a shot at the playoffs.

Two weeks ago, the leafs were out of the playoffs, playing terrible. They were calling for trades, coach firings, etc. then they string together some wins and are ahead of us and comfortably in the playoffs. We could just as easily win 5 in a row and be back on top.that is what happens with bubble teams.

People are acting like we are Edmonton or Buffalo. This team needs to keep making hockey trades, dump Bourque, look for good trades. They need to draft well. They don't need to blow it up. I don't think a coaching change right now will help that much, it will just be yet another failed attempt to hide the talent problem.

[kenadian]

I've been UNDER-REACTING to there last half dozen games........by tuning out. Why the h-e-double hockey sticks should I watch such a PATHETIC overall effort? If there's another game on I'll tune to it, to see REAL action effort and execution.....heck I even turned over to the Leafs-Jets game and it was entertaining!!!

There just not worth it, NO TEAM is, instead of sitting there yelling at the team through the TV I'll go do something else, something enjoyable...............

OK GUYS LETS GO!

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

The Habs have been mediocre in their own end since mid-December and absolutely catastrophic in that department for about three weeks now. This is not a normal slump - we are getting blown out, dominated, shellacked, made to look like fools. That's NOT normal for ANY team in today's league, when systems and team defence are practically a science. And that's why, although I'd normally be inclined to resist the fan tendency to panic, I do think this January has been unusually concerning.

The abnormality of the team performance - and again, I mean abnormal in terms of any NHL team, not just ours - suggests deeper problems than a mere talent deficit. Maybe there are problems in the room; perhaps the veterans are in tension with the "next wave" of PK/Patches/Gally (and this is sheer speculation, but I noticed that when Markov congratulated Gallagher for his goal against Detroit, Gally neither smiled nor made eye contact; it looked awkward and made me wonder if there was some tension there?). Maybe they have indeed quit on Therrien (the last time I saw the Habs look this catastrophic in their own zone was in the dying days of the hapless Carbonneau, when the team clearly had checked out on their bench boss). I don't know what's going on, but unless the ship gets turned around soon, Bergevin HAS to do something. No GM can sit around while his team utterly collapses. My guess is that we'll see a trade in fairly short order (shipping out Gio would certainly be a shakeup); and if that doesn't work, MT will get turfed in the summer.

[Neech]

I didn't notice the Gally-Markov thing, but it doesn't really surprise me. Markov has always seemed aloof, Pleks too. I hope there isn't some split in the room, but if there is, we have to put our lot in with the young guns. I'm starting to think that trading some vets could help in that it would force Therrien to stop relying on them so much.

[brobin]

The Habs have been mediocre in their own end since mid-December and absolutely catastrophic in that department for about three weeks now. This is not a normal slump - we are getting blown out, dominated, shellacked, made to look like fools. That's NOT normal for ANY team in today's league, when systems and team defence are practically a science. And that's why, although I'd normally be inclined to resist the fan tendency to panic, I do think this January has been unusually concerning.

The abnormality of the team performance - and again, I mean abnormal in terms of any NHL team, not just ours - suggests deeper problems than a mere talent deficit. Maybe there are problems in the room; perhaps the veterans are in tension with the "next wave" of PK/Patches/Gally (and this is sheer speculation, but I noticed that when Markov congratulated Gallagher for his goal against Detroit, Gally neither smiled nor made eye contact; it looked awkward and made me wonder if there was some tension there?). Maybe they have indeed quit on Therrien (the last time I saw the Habs look this catastrophic in their own zone was in the dying days of the hapless Carbonneau, when the team clearly had checked out on their bench boss). I don't know what's going on, but unless the ship gets turned around soon, Bergevin HAS to do something. No GM can sit around while his team utterly collapses. My guess is that we'll see a trade in fairly short order (shipping out Gio would certainly be a shakeup); and if that doesn't work, MT will get turfed in the summer.

They have been middling since mid dec because they are a 500 bubble team. They are a small team that wins by most of them playing at 100 plus percent, skating like crazy. This lasts for a while, but the season wears those teams down. They get tired. Injuries pile up, even minor ones. They slow down and become vulnerable. Add in some goal scoring slumps, defensive lapses, and goalie slumps, and you can get some truly awful games.

We saw this last year when they played great. Then bounced around a bit in spurts, then collapsed. We are in the collapse stage it is just in a longer season.

I don't expect them to be this bad much longer. Like the leafs, a few guys will bust out of the scoring slumps. They will get some confidence, and the team will feed off the energy. The Olympic break might do them some good, especially if Price and PK are watching for most of it.

I think all the speculation about giving up on the coach or tension in the room is thrown about every time a team goes in a slump. It rarely ends up being true. Of course many of them look frustrated and unemotional...the team is in a big funk and nothing is fun right now. It doesn't mean the room is divided. It means they are not happy as a team. They shouldn't be, but a couple of wins could put this behind them. It won't make them Chicago, just a bubble team again.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

brobin, that's the other side of the argument: "this is a normal slump for a team built like this one is; this too shall pass." And a further support for that point of view is that teams are playing a compressed schedule - a situation that works against tired veterans like Markov and Gio and amplifies their problems. On this theory, then, the combination of the Olympic Break + the normal dynamics of getting out of slumps should see the team playing better by the start of the post-Olympic stretch run.

I dunno. I still see the situation in the D-zone as extraordinary, myself. Not a "normal" slump. But we're just guessing, and the other side of the argument could be right.