Commandant Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Neech said: A former 1st rounder who is ranked ~#50 in league prospects is worth more than a future 1st rounder in the late 20's. And Heineman and a 5th is worth more than a 2nd rounder who won't even be picked until 2024 and so is unlikely to play in the NHL before 2027-28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neech Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Commandant said: And Heineman and a 5th is worth more than a 2nd rounder who won't even be picked until 2024 and so is unlikely to play in the NHL before 2027-28 Heineman is worth roughly a 2nd rounder on his own, a 5th is a slightly above negligible asset. I'd rather an A-prospect than the package that Toffoli got (still decent, but no blue-chippers, though I'm still holding out hope that HuGort have an inside line on Heineman). The fact that Lekky got us a blue chipper at the deadline suggests that there may have been more of a bidding war for Toffoli if we had waited. I'm sure you wouldn't have said that we'd get an A-prospect and a good pick for Lekky a month ago, given the return we got for Toffoli who is the better player on paper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 33 minutes ago, Neech said: ... suggests that there may have been more of a bidding war for Toffoli if we had waited. I'm sure you wouldn't have said that we'd get an A-prospect and a good pick for Lekky a month ago, given the return we got for Toffoli who is the better player on paper. I have to wonder if Toffoli had quietly and politely asked for a trade ... I know what he said about liking Montreal, and think that is true ... but he may have wanted a legit Cup run given his contract will be up before the Hand are a real playoff contender (i.e., not a wildcard chase) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neech Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, GHT120 said: I have to wonder if Toffoli had quietly and politely asked for a trade ... I know what he said about liking Montreal, and think that is true ... but he may have wanted a legit Cup run given his contract will be up before the Hand are a real playoff contender (i.e., not a wildcard chase) Perhaps, but that doesn't force us to make a move we don't want to. I think HuGort was happy with the return for Toffoli, but the haul we got at the deadline suggests that the market could have heated up if we had waited. I think Toffoli was always out the door with the new regime looking to add picks and prospects in place of vets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, Neech said: Perhaps, but that doesn't force us to make a move we don't want to. I think HuGort was happy with the return for Toffoli, but the haul we got at the deadline suggests that the market could have heated up if we had waited. I think Toffoli was always out the door with the new regime looking to add picks and prospects in place of vets. I agree it doesn't force anything ... but as, I agree, TT wasn't part of their long-term plans then accommodating him builds respect and good will amongst both players and agents ... but I also agree it wasn't a "best I could get" dump but a "we think this is fair market value" trade ... also hard to say whether this value would have been higher at the deadline as he was not a pending UFA, the normal deadline profile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Ok so Barron > 2022 1st 2024 2nd < Heineman no third piece < 5th I'm not seeing this argument that Lehkonen's return was much better. If Heineman is worth a 2nd right now.... he's worth more than a 2nd three years into the future in a draft that it is unknown how good it will be (even NHL scouts have no idea what the second round of the 2024 draft is going to look like) and its a player we wouldn't see in our lineup for at least 5 years from today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neech Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Commandant said: Ok so Barron > 2022 1st 2024 2nd < Heineman no third piece < 5th I'm not seeing this argument that Lehkonen's return was much better. If Heineman is worth a 2nd right now.... he's worth more than a 2nd three years into the future in a draft that it is unknown how good it will be (even NHL scouts have no idea what the second round of the 2024 draft is going to look like) and its a player we wouldn't see in our lineup for at least 5 years from today. The A-prospect by itself is worth more than the complete Toffoli haul. One good asset is worth more than several middling ones. We have plenty of B-prospects and picks - elite talent is the hardest to add. Somehow Lekky, the ostensibly inferior player, got us a potential future core piece while Toffoli got us more marginal assets. Here's your corrected chart: Barron >>>>>>>>> 2022 1st 2024 2nd < Heineman ... sure maybe by a bit, probably depends on the scout you're asking but in either case neither projects to be a difference maker in the league no third piece < 5th ...sure, but it's a 5th and is practically negligible A month ago, you were assuring me that a player of Toffoli's caliber couldn't net a blue-chipper, but now Lekky has done just that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 I love Barron but the guy was a late first in the 2020 draft. Hes developed well enough.. and thats good. But if he was unsigned (and thus reentering the 2022 draft)... hes probably taken in the 20th overall range which really isnt that much more valuable than calgarys first round pick. Hes not a blue chip... top 5 .. cant miss guy. Hes ranked 51st amongst all NHL prospects in the hockey news (amd their criteria is anyone who is in the NHL as a full timer ie caufield, zegras, etc..) are excluded. He was a pretty clear #3 in my article. Byram and Newhook being blue chippers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Commandant said: Ok so Barron > 2022 1st 2024 2nd < Heineman no third piece < 5th I'm not seeing this argument that Lehkonen's return was much better. If Heineman is worth a 2nd right now.... he's worth more than a 2nd three years into the future in a draft that it is unknown how good it will be (even NHL scouts have no idea what the second round of the 2024 draft is going to look like) and its a player we wouldn't see in our lineup for at least 5 years from today. I think they are both pretty good returns. Hard to compare Barron (somewhat of a known quantity but certainly not fully developed) to an unknown (1st round pick). Some have argued that Hughes would have got a better return for Toffoli if he waited. Maybe, maybe not. I think Hughes struck a good balance between striking while the iron was hot and waiting to get maximum return on the crazy last day. Sometimes you get a better return by waiting, sometimes you get left holding the bag if teams go in another direction. You never know how the last day will go. Bottom line, I am thrilled with what Hughes has been able to accomplish so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neech Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Commandant said: I love Barron but the guy was a late first in the 2020 draft. Hes developed well enough.. and thats good. But if he was unsigned (and thus reentering the 2022 draft)... hes probably taken in the 20th overall range which really isnt that much more valuable than calgarys first round pick. Hes not a blue chip... top 5 .. cant miss guy. Hes ranked 51st amongst all NHL prospects in the hockey news (amd their criteria is anyone who is in the NHL as a full timer ie caufield, zegras, etc..) are excluded. He was a pretty clear #3 in my article. Byram and Newhook being blue chippers We don't have a blue chipper of the Byram or Newhook caliber in the system at the moment. Barron immediately jumps into our top 2 or 3 prospects; I highly doubt our selection with Calgary's 1st does the same or even comes close, and Heineman certainly doesn't. He's developed well two seasons out from his draft year - that's surely worth more than 20th overall and a mere 5 spots higher in the draft order. Using your same reasoning that you gave to point out the lesser value of a 2024 pick, Barron has higher value now vis a vis an undrafted 18 year old because he's more of a sure commodity and closer to contributing in the NHL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 7 hours ago, Neech said: We don't have a blue chipper of the Byram or Newhook caliber in the system at the moment. Barron immediately jumps into our top 2 or 3 prospects; I highly doubt our selection with Calgary's 1st does the same or even comes close, and Heineman certainly doesn't. He's developed well two seasons out from his draft year - that's surely worth more than 20th overall and a mere 5 spots higher in the draft order. Using your same reasoning that you gave to point out the lesser value of a 2024 pick, Barron has higher value now vis a vis an undrafted 18 year old because he's more of a sure commodity and closer to contributing in the NHL. The only way to judge it is by where do i think barron would go if put in this draft and how does that compare to calgarys pick. I honestly think hed be around 20th. Which is ahead of where calgary will pick but not that far. I dont see him as a top 10 type dynamic talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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