Trade Toffoli traded to Calgary

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

17 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Yeah I can't see a first for Hoffman either. 

 

In fact, I don't think Chiarot is going to get a first. 

 

And I think Petry won't be moved until summer.

 

I agree about Petry, that is a more complicated trade.  I still think Charot gets a first, the race for the cup is wide open, someone will bite.  

[Prime Minister Koivu]

1 hour ago, Commandant said:

Yeah I can't see a first for Hoffman either. 

 

In fact, I don't think Chiarot is going to get a first. 

 

And I think Petry won't be moved until summer.

Well boo

 

I think moving Petry would be of great benefit to the team, he is spoiled milk. 
 

 

[Commandant]

Just now, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Well boo

 

I think moving Petry would be of great benefit to the team, he is spoiled milk. 
 

 

 

I'm not against moving him.  But his contract is much bigger and longer than Toffoli.  That usually means summertime trade, not trade deadline.

 

[DON]

Will miss Toffoli, i wouldnt Hoffman, other than that shot of his.

 

Sitting in the Pick #1 & Pick #20 slots... for the moment.

[huzer]

4 hours ago, Commandant said:

Yeah I can't see a first for Hoffman either. 

 

In fact, I don't think Chiarot is going to get a first. 

 

And I think Petry won't be moved until summer.

I think there’s potential for a 1st for Chiarot. I can see plenty of folks writing off what’s happened during the dumpster fire of a regular season and pointing to the successes of the playoffs last year as a driver for his value.

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, huzer said:

I think there’s potential for a 1st for Chiarot. I can see plenty of folks writing off what’s happened during the dumpster fire of a regular season and pointing to the successes of the playoffs last year as a driver for his value.

 

Its not chiarot, its the number of D on the market.

 

Giordano and Klingberg are better rental options

Hampus Lindholm could become available for anaheim too.

 

And while not a rental, chychrun is also available.

 

All of those D are better than chiarot and how many teams are going to trade a 1st round pick for a dman.

 

[hab29RETIRED]

8 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

OK, OK...it's only his last two seasons that have had him at a 30 goal pace 🙄 That doesn't count, apparently.

 

And for the record, I didn't say we should have a Suzuki return for him...I said a more modest version of the Suzuki deal.

 

If H-man becomes a quality top-6 FW, then this deal is just fine by me.

 

If he becomes a checker, then I remain perplexed as to how trading a top-6 FW on a terrific contract in return for a bottom-6er constitutes shrewd asset management.

Totally agree. I thought Taffoli would bring the greatest return this year - I hope I’m wrong now!

[Prime Minister Koivu]

well this doesn’t sound like Lehkonen at all. I don’t know if we got proper return for Toffoli but maybe this guy is better than we think?

[Prime Minister Koivu]

5 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Its not chiarot, its the number of D on the market.

 

Giordano and Klingberg are better rental options

Hampus Lindholm could become available for anaheim too.

 

And while not a rental, chychrun is also available.

 

All of those D are better than chiarot and how many teams are going to trade a 1st round pick for a dman.

 

Your wisdom and common sense are harshing my buzz 

 

I’ve got a bit of excitement going. Thinking we are going to amass like four firsts this year and four first next year. A quick rebuild and cup parade in four years. 
 

I may need to temper my expectations 

[huzer]

6 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Its not chiarot, its the number of D on the market.

 

Giordano and Klingberg are better rental options

Hampus Lindholm could become available for anaheim too.

 

And while not a rental, chychrun is also available.

 

All of those D are better than chiarot and how many teams are going to trade a 1st round pick for a dman.

 

 

Looking back over the last few trade deadlines, you're right. Overall, not as my 1st round picks get tossed around as people might think over the trade deadline. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

14 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Toffoli was worth more in the offseason because there would have been more suitors. 
 

We are pick hunters I guess?

 

I'm hoping for a proper haul on Petry and Chairot and a a first for Hoffman 

 

The timing of this trade is another question. Since the return is far from a home-run, why not wait until closer to the deadline and try to create at least a modest bidding war? It’s not like Toffoli is on an expiring contract and you’re afraid of his getting hurt.

 

Now maybe they just really like this kid. Maybe this is a version of the Danault trade, where our management sees top-6 potential in a guy that has generally been regarded as a bottom-6 prospect. Does Hugh-Gort have the acumen to pull that off? Only time will tell. (Bergevin had had the advantage of a close look at Danault when he was in Chicago, of course).

 

Or maybe this is an example of another tendency we see from hockey managers sometimes, “path of least resistance” pragmatism: a decision is made about what constitutes adequate or reasonable return, and when you get an offer that meets that threshold, rather than fuss and fret to try to jack up the value further you just pull the trigger and move on. Dim Jim Benning seemed to do that a lot in Vancouver. It’s not great asset management and tends to corrode your position over time, which is why Benning is now on the street.

 

In any case, with probably our best trade chip gone, I find my enthusiasm for the sell-off of 2022 somewhat dampened. A raft of 2nd/3rd round picks and depth prospects seems to be the likeliest result.

[DON]

Cheer up, we dont have a clue which teams Toffoli was discussed with, nor even a wildass guess what ANYONE else was offering.

Wont know for couple years how trade really plays out.

[tomh009]

7 hours ago, Commandant said:

All of those D are better than chiarot and how many teams are going to trade a 1st round pick for a dman.

Maybe some GM out there has his heart set on getting a Clydesdale D-man!

[Commandant]

28 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

The timing of this trade is another question. Since the return is far from a home-run, why not wait until closer to the deadline and try to create at least a modest bidding war? It’s not like Toffoli is on an expiring contract and you’re afraid of his getting hurt.

 

Now maybe they just really like this kid. Maybe this is a version of the Danault trade, where our management sees top-6 potential in a guy that has generally been regarded as a bottom-6 prospect. Does Hugh-Gort have the acumen to pull that off? Only time will tell. (Bergevin had had the advantage of a close look at Danault when he was in Chicago, of course).

 

Or maybe this is an example of another tendency we see from hockey managers sometimes, “path of least resistance” pragmatism: a decision is made about what constitutes adequate or reasonable return, and when you get an offer that meets that threshold, rather than fuss and fret to try to jack up the value further you just pull the trigger and move on. Dim Jim Benning seemed to do that a lot in Vancouver. It’s not great asset management and tends to corrode your position over time, which is why Benning is now on the street.

 

In any case, with probably our best trade chip gone, I find my enthusiasm for the sell-off of 2022 somewhat dampened. A raft of 2nd/3rd round picks and depth prospects seems to be the likeliest result.

 

Why is he generally seen as a bottom six prospect?

 

Who are these people generally seeing him as that?

 

I don't know where this narrative took shape in this thread that Heineman has the ceiling of a bottom-six guy, but that's not the case. 

 

Again this goes back to something I posted in another thread weeks ago. 

 

The difference between a Great Prospect and a Good Prospect is not that the great one is top 6, and the bottom one is a bottom 6, the difference between the two is that for the great prospect, the likelihood to succeed is higher and the age that they will make the NHL generally lower. 

 

Being a lower grade prospect than say Pelletier, doesn't mean that his ceiling is the third line, just that more things need to go right in his development to be a 1st or 2nd liner.  The fact he's scoring as the second youngest player on an SHL team and with limited fourth line minutes and no powerplay time suggests there is offence there.

 

As for timing.... Once you get the deal you want, you make the deal. Lots of things can happen in the interim, injuries, suitors looking elsewhere and making deals, etc... not sure why we criticize timing... we need to start tearing down the team so it can be rebuilt.  I expect a bunch of these types of deals. 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

31 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

The timing of this trade is another question. Since the return is far from a home-run, why not wait until closer to the deadline and try to create at least a modest bidding war? It’s not like Toffoli is on an expiring contract and you’re afraid of his getting hurt.

 

Now maybe they just really like this kid. Maybe this is a version of the Danault trade, where our management sees top-6 potential in a guy that has generally been regarded as a bottom-6 prospect. Does Hugh-Gort have the acumen to pull that off? Only time will tell. (Bergevin had had the advantage of a close look at Danault when he was in Chicago, of course).

 

Or maybe this is an example of another tendency we see from hockey managers sometimes, “path of least resistance” pragmatism: a decision is made about what constitutes adequate or reasonable return, and when you get an offer that meets that threshold, rather than fuss and fret to try to jack up the value further you just pull the trigger and move on. Dim Jim Benning seemed to do that a lot in Vancouver. It’s not great asset management and tends to corrode your position over time, which is why Benning is now on the street.

 

In any case, with probably our best trade chip gone, I find my enthusiasm for the sell-off of 2022 somewhat dampened. A raft of 2nd/3rd round picks and depth prospects seems to be the likeliest result.

I think your path of least resistance analysis is what we are dealing with. 
 

I get the vibe that Hugh-gort (lol to whoever came up with that name) is going to change the team dynamics and amass as many picks as possible and you are correct that this isn’t ideal asset management. 
 

I’m looking forward to more deals and especially the draft this year. 

[tomh009]

25 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Being a lower grade prospect than say Pelletier, doesn't mean that his ceiling is the third line, just that more things need to go right in his development to be a 1st or 2nd liner.  The fact he's scoring as the second youngest player on an SHL team and with limited fourth line minutes and no powerplay time suggests there is offence there.

I quite liked this bit from the Athletic article:

Quote

“His shot,” he said. “He has a tremendous shot. That’s the most important. But I think also his work ethic every day, on ice, off ice, when we play games, he always gives 100 percent. So his work ethic, his shot, it’s fantastic.”

 

That shot did not become fantastic by accident. Last summer, before just about every off-ice workout or practice the team had, Johansson says Heineman would take a bucket of pucks and shoot for 45 minutes. He did this practically every day, which speaks to the work ethic Johansson cited.

 

[GHT120]

17 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

OK, OK...it's only his last two seasons that have had him at a 30 goal pace 🙄 That doesn't count, apparently ...

Season        G    G/82
2012–13      2    16.4
2013–14    12    15.9
2014–15    23    24.8
2015–16    31    31.0
2016–17    16    20.8
2017–18    24    24.0
2018–19    13    13.0
2019–20    18    28.9 (25.4 until 6 in 10 games with Vancouver boosted it)
2020–21    28    44.2
2021–22      9    19.9

 

Last season was at an astounding, and unsustainable, rate of 44.2/82 amidst the Canadian Division Covid Chaos ... his only other 30/82 was his actual 31 goal season six seasons ago ... he ended up close two years ago, but that was skewed by a 49/82 pace over 10 games with the 'Nucks ... my point was/is not that he is a very good but not elite scorer 

 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

I quite liked this bit from the Athletic article:

 

I’m kind of getting a Kotkaniemi vibe from the various comments about him except with better skating. 
 

Does anyone know where he is in his development? If he came to Canada would he be Laval or with the big club (Considering that we are going rebuild and youth movement)? 

[dlbalr]

5 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I’m kind of getting a Kotkaniemi vibe from the various comments about him except with better skating. 
 

Does anyone know where he is in his development? If he came to Canada would he be Laval or with the big club (Considering that we are going rebuild and youth movement)? 

 

He's under contract in Sweden through 2024-25.  Whenever the Habs sign him, Laval won't be an option as with the transfer agreement the NHL has with the SHL, Heineman's contract there would still be valid if he's not in the NHL.  (Same reason why Norlinder was restricted to Montreal or Sweden for most of the year until the calendar flipped to December.) 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

8 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

He's under contract in Sweden through 2024-25.  Whenever the Habs sign him, Laval won't be an option as with the transfer agreement the NHL has with the SHL, Heineman's contract there would still be valid if he's not in the NHL.  (Same reason why Norlinder was restricted to Montreal or Sweden for most of the year until the calendar flipped to December.) 

Thanks Brian 👍

[alfredoh2009]

2 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Why is he generally seen as a bottom six prospect?

 

Who are these people generally seeing him as that?

 

I don't know where this narrative took shape in this thread that Heineman has the ceiling of a bottom-six guy, but that's not the case. 

 

Again this goes back to something I posted in another thread weeks ago. 

 

The difference between a Great Prospect and a Good Prospect is not that the great one is top 6, and the bottom one is a bottom 6, the difference between the two is that for the great prospect, the likelihood to succeed is higher and the age that they will make the NHL generally lower. 

 

Being a lower grade prospect than say Pelletier, doesn't mean that his ceiling is the third line, just that more things need to go right in his development to be a 1st or 2nd liner.  The fact he's scoring as the second youngest player on an SHL team and with limited fourth line minutes and no powerplay time suggests there is offence there.

 

As for timing.... Once you get the deal you want, you make the deal. Lots of things can happen in the interim, injuries, suitors looking elsewhere and making deals, etc... not sure why we criticize timing... we need to start tearing down the team so it can be rebuilt.  I expect a bunch of these types of deals. 

 

I get you point, but the multiple reports on Haineman being a 3rd line winger is significant, For example, this article citing a Swedish recruiter:

 

Le montage des buts d’Emil Heineman a déjà circulé abondamment sur les réseaux sociaux et c’est normal. Mais on a consulté un recruteur suédois qui préfère tempérer les attentes, il le voit comme un ailier de 3e ou 4e trio dans la LNH. @RDSca #CH https://t.co/Ms2KU5jtOh

— Eric Leblanc (@eleblancRDS) February 15, 2022

 

"«[...] Selon moi, il a de très bonnes chances de jouer dans la LNH, mais comme je le disais, je ne vois pas davantage de potentiel qu’un troisième ou quatrième trio. Si le Canadien lui trouve un bon partenaire avec lequel il aura une chimie offensive, il pourrait, au mieux, s’établir comme un ailier de troisième trio qui compte sa part de buts. Il peut devenir un buteur complémentaire », a détaillé le recruteur suédois."

 

"<< In my opinion, there is a good chance he plays in the NHL, but like I aid, I do not see potential beyond a third or fourth trio. If the Canadiens finds him a good partner with whom he has good chemistry, he could be a third liner that scores his share of goals. He can become a complementary scorer>>, explained the Swedish recruiter"

 

[Commandant]

And there are other articles that call him a potential top six winger... including one with comments from his coach posted in this thread, as well as Craig Button saying that too. 

 

We are talking about this prospect's CEILING.... so given that the sides (both with credible contributors to it) don't agree on whether the ceiling is top 6 or bottom 6, I'd say given that its ceiling we are looking for, we are right to hope for the higher side on this, and its two early to call a 20 year old, a max third liner. 

[tomh009]

23 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I get you point, but the multiple reports on Haineman being a 3rd line winger is significant,

He's only 20. Some people think he can only do bottom-six, other people think his ceiling is higher. But he's still just a prospect, no one actually knows, there is no absolute truth.

[alfredoh2009]

9 minutes ago, Commandant said:

And there are other articles that call him a potential top six winger... including one with comments from his coach posted in this thread, as well as Craig Button saying that too. 

 

We are talking about this prospect's CEILING.... so given that the sides (both with credible contributors to it) don't agree on whether the ceiling is top 6 or bottom 6, I'd say given that its ceiling we are looking for, we are right to hope for the higher side on this, and its two early to call a 20 year old, a max third liner. 

 

I trust you reports on prospects, I read your website, so I'll side with the arguments you are making. I hope you are right.

[alfredoh2009]

Just now, tomh009 said:

He's only 20. Some people think he can only do bottom-six, other people think his ceiling is higher. But he's still just a prospect, no one actually knows, there is no absolute truth.

I wish I could be as optimistic, I am trying... really