Okay, I tried to make sense of the celebrated confusing conditions in the trade we made with Calgary to take on Monahan and his contract. I think the following description is correct, please feel free to correct me.
Corrected now to give the correct conditions in the "Key decision point".
I'm also interested to see which scenario will actually happen.
Which do you believe will come to pass? Which are you rooting for?
First decision: If Calgary finishes 2023-2024 season and playoffs as one of the 13 best teams,
i.e., if Calgary is picking in 2024 between 20th and 32nd, we can choose to take that pick.
[I don't see this happening.]
Let's suppose the above doesn't happen. Then we get a 1st round pick in either 2025 or 2026 from either Calgary or Florida.
It will almost surely be a 2025 1st rounder.
There is only one scenario where we get a 2026 1st round pick (I'll call this case B(ii)). The only way we would get a 2026 1st rounder is if:
We don't get the 2024 pick (very likely) and
Florida's 2025 first rounder does not go to Calgary (see below why this might happen) and
Calgary wins the 2025 lottery getting the 2025 #1 overall (very unlikely).
If this remote scenario comes to pass, we would get the better of Calgary's and Florida's 2026 1st round pick and also would get Calgary's 2025 3rd round pick.
This is extremely unlikely.
So we probably get a 2025 first rounder which would be from either Florida or Calgary.
Key decision point:
Either
(A)
Florida’s 2024 first-rounder is not top 10 [and then it goes to Philadelphia for Claude Giroux ]AND
Florida’s 2025 first-round pick is also not top 10
then Calgary gets Florida’s 2025 first-round pick (from the Matthew Tkachuk trade)
or
(B)
One of Florida’s 2024 and 2025 first rounder is top 10
then Florida’s 2025 first-round pick does not go to Calgary (and so they can't give it to us).
If Florida's 2024 first rounder is top 10 then they keep it instead of giving it to Philly. Philly instead gets Florida's 2025 first pick and so Calgary gets Florida's 2026 first rounder.
If Florida's 2025 first rounder is top 10 and they already paid Philly then Florida keeps their own 2025 first rounder and Calgary gets Florida's first pick in 2026.
If A happens then Calgary gets Florida's 2025 1st round pick (and might give it to us). If B happens then Calgary gets Florida's 2026 1st round pick (instead of Florida's 2025 1st rounder).
Next both A and B have subcases: (A) Florida's 2025 1st rounder is transferred to Calgary and (i) Calgary earns a top 10 ten pick (after the lottery) in 2025:
We get Florida's 2025 1st rounder (which will be in the range 11-32).
(A) Florida's 2025 1st rounder is transferred to Calgary and (ii) Calgary's 2025 (after the lottery) pick is 11th-32nd.
We get the better of the Calgary/Florida 2025 1st round pick (both of which will be in the range 11-32) .
(B) Florida misses the 2025 playoffs and (i) Calgary's 2025 pick (after the lottery) is 2nd-32nd:
We get Calgary's 2025 1st rounder.
(B) Florida misses the 2025 playoffs and (ii) Calgary's 2025 pick is 1st overall (after the lottery).
We are in the unlikely case described above:
We get a 2026 1st rounder and Calgary's 2025 3rd rounder as described above.
There is also a chance to get a 4th rounder in case B(i)
(i.e., if Calgary does not get Florida's 2025 1st rounder) and
if both Florida’s and Calgary's 2025 1st round pick are 11th-32nd, and
Florida's pick is better than Calgary's and
Florida's pick was transferred to another team [i.e., to Philadelphia] due to prior conditions,
then we also get Calgary’s 2025 4th round pick.