Habs still control their own destiny

[Jean]

From La Presse, March 12 '07 p.S1

-- post updated April 1 --

-- added Tampa Bay on March 26 --

Games against direct competitors

Montréal 3

Rangers 3

Toronto 3

Tampa Bay 2

Boston 1

Islanders 2

Florida 3

Carolina 3

Games in beetween direct competitors

March 13

Islanders 3 Montréal 5

Florida 1 Carolina 3

March 17

Toronto 2 Montréal 3 (overtime)

Boston 0 Rangers 7

Islanders 5 Florida 8

March 20

Boston 0 Montréal 1 (regulation)

March 22

Montréal 6 Boston 3

March 24

Rangers 2 Boston 1 (shootout)

March 25

Rangers 2 Islanders 1 (overtime)

March 27

Rangers 4 Montréal 6

Carolina 1 Toronto 6

Florida 5 Tampa Bay 2

March 30

Tampa Bay 4 Carolina 2

April 1

Carolina @ Florida

Toronto @ Rangers

April 3

Boston @ Montréal

Rangers @ Islanders

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

April 5

Montréal @ Rangers

Toronto @ Islanders

April 6

Florida @ Tampa Bay

April 7

Montréal @ Toronto

Florida @ Carolina

Edited April 1, 2007 by Jean

[MAK]

there is too much negative around the team right now for me to think that they can shake up:

-we don't have a good goalie in nets- number one goalie injured

-lines are changed every game.

-nobody's producing regularly.

-underacheiving russian whining all the time in the papers(may never play another game in mtl..thank God)

-papers taking shots at kovalev.

-team confidence seems bottom low.

-can't keep a lead.

-seldom score the first goal.

-taking too many penalties.

as well, the other teams are playing better than us.

better luck next time !!

[Strummerman]

For me it would be better to get a high draft choice then finish 8th and get clobbered in 5 or 6 in the first round

[tokyohabs]

Of those games, we have 1 game against a team sitting in a playoff spot.

We really don't control too much, if the teams now in the playoff spots keep winning and win their games in hand.

That said, if we win all 8 of those I'd think we'll be pretty close. If not, package the 2 picks + a pretty good player for a top 3 draft pick?

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Don't worry, this team has shown itself to be brilliant at finding ways to blow it. They couldn't even do the decent thing and bomb in their pre-deadline game against Toronto, which likely would have allowed Gainey to feel comfortable dealing Souray. A team with this remarkable gift for self-immolation won't allow a little thing like 'being in control of their destiny' to prevent their triumphant march to the golf course. So relax and enjoy the degradation.

[JMMR]

I will always believe and with how many games all of the Bruins, Leafs, Rangers and Islanders all play against eachother all the Canadiens have to do is win and hope that every single one of those games is not extended past 60 minutes.

[Chris]

The Habs have the 2nd worst record in the league since Xmas. Only Washington is worse. That is going to change.

I said it before: No Effort + No pride + No talent = No Playoffs. Let's hope for a high pick.

[beliveau1]

For me it would be better to get a high draft choice then finish 8th and get clobbered in 5 or 6 in the first round

Not often that the two of us see eye to eye on something - but I agree with this sentiment wholeheartedly.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - this team is not a serious contender at this point. I'll take a high draft pick any day over a very slight chance of advancing to the next round!!!!!!

Yeah people are going to say anything can happen, but the fact is that it doesn't far more often than it does....

[Wamsley01]

Not often that the two of us see eye to eye on something - but I agree with this sentiment wholeheartedly.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - this team is not a serious contender at this point. I'll take a high draft pick any day over a very slight chance of advancing to the next round!!!!!!

Yeah people are going to say anything can happen, but the fact is that it doesn't far more often than it does....

I kind of have the same attitude, I am cheering for a miracle but am expecting them to keep puttering along like they have been for 2 months. My only fear is a 7-5 finish and 9th place by a point or 2. That would hurt!

[ShortHanded]

For me it would be better to get a high draft choice then finish 8th and get clobbered in 5 or 6 in the first round

Not often that the two of us see eye to eye on something - but I agree with this sentiment wholeheartedly.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - this team is not a serious contender at this point. I'll take a high draft pick any day over a very slight chance of advancing to the next round!!!!!!

Yeah people are going to say anything can happen, but the fact is that it doesn't far more often than it does....

I kind of have the same attitude, I am cheering for a miracle but am expecting them to keep puttering along like they have been for 2 months. My only fear is a 7-5 finish and 9th place by a point or 2. That would hurt!

agreed with all of the above. the "instant fan" in me would love to see them make it, but from a long term and responsible standpoint, we NEED not to make it so we can get a high pick, make some serious changes in the off-season, and start fresh instead of just "tweak" a little and end up as a perpetual 8th seed again.

By serious changes, I don't mean many changes, just changes around who we consider core players.

[tokyohabs]

By serious changes, I don't mean many changes, just changes around who we consider core players.

Identifyiing these players and discarding excess baggage is the only thing that will bring us upwards.

[ShortHanded]

Identifyiing these players and discarding excess baggage is the only thing that will bring us upwards.

we need to discard excess baggage AND bring in new blood to fill in our gaps (whether it be through trades, signings, or call ups from the farm system). We have some major gaps on D and at Center (need a #1 or #2) that I don't see us filling internally.

[tokyohabs]

I agree. I'm wondering who the core players will be. This selection is what everything will be built around - youth/playing time & potential free agents.

[BTH]

The Habs have the 2nd worst record in the league since Xmas. Only Washington is worse. That is going to change.

I said it before: No Effort + No pride + No talent = No Playoffs. Let's hope for a high pick.

:?-

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

:?-

I agree with this head-scratcher. There IS talent here...maybe not world-beating but WAAAY better than the 2nd-worst record overall since Christmas. Let's not overreact. Yes, we need some tweaking. But are we utter crap? Not on paper.

[smon]

That's pretty scary though, even the most ardent apologist (say the kind of person who would justify trading away Patrick Roy) would have to shudder at that record.

[Jean]

Schedule updated

[JMMR]

Well Boston got rocked tonight I hope they are soft for the Habs but I have a feeling that they will come out flying after an ass whoppin from Lewis.

[Jean]

Well Boston got rocked tonight I hope they are soft for the Habs but I have a feeling that they will come out flying after an ass whoppin from Lewis.

Who knows what opponent we will get.. the Bruins can either kick ass or be god awful.. kinda like our Habs!

[Oleg Petrov]

All this tank-for-the-draft talk seems pretty useless to me. Realistically, even if the Habs went back into the total tailspin of January, it's almost impossible to imagine them finishing worse than 23rd overall - they're 11 points ahead of Edmonton in 24th. That's only about 5 spots in the order in what everyone's calling a weak draft.

Let's look at the 1992 draft and the choices from 7 through 13:

7 Philadelphia Ryan Sittler L

8 Toronto Brandon Convery C

9 Hartford Robert Petrovicky C

10 San Jose Andrei Nazarov L

11 Buffalo David Cooper D

12 Chicago Sergei Krivokrasov R

13 Edmonton Joe Hulbig L

Yes, Edmonton would have done much better to tank that year. Instead of being stuck with Joe Hulbig, they could have gotten Ryan Sittler, Brandon Convery or superstar forward Robert Petrovicky!

The sharper observers among us will point out that with pick number 7, the Flyers could just have easily picked up Sergei Gonchar, Jason Smith or Martin Straka. But those guys were still around when the 13th pick came up, too, and the players selected in between were all dross to a man.

Lessons to be drawn:

1. Smart draft choices are not always earlier choices. Your strategy for drafting well should focus on building a good scouting force and recognizing their good hunches and bad ones, and not by instructing your current team to lose so that you can jump a couple of spots in line.

2. Even with good scouting, a draft is still about 50% crapshoot. The first 2 or 3 overall picks are usually solid bets to be impact players, but you get washouts pretty soon after that. Look at the top 10 draft picks from 1995-01 - the years upon which it's safe to pronounce judgment - and ask yourself how many of the 10 would even crack the Habs lineup today - much less be impact players. The number floats around 6. And once you factor in the gems that get drafted late in the day after every team has passed on them at least 5 times - Michael Ryder? Andrei Markov? Mikhail Grabovski? Mark Streit? Jaroslav Halak? - and the crapshoot becomes even more obvious.

Yes, of course, it's preferable to be able to choose before other teams. But beyond the second or third pick overall, four or five spots makes little difference in the long run. Now, balance that against what the identity of 'loser' does to every team member on a squad...failing to make the playoffs, or failing to put up a decent fight, would be a lot more 'expensive' in the team's development of Kostitsyn - Latendresse - Komisarek - Halak - Higgins - Plekanec - etc - etc than the cost to the team's long-term health of having to wait five more minutes on draft day to roll the dice.

________

As an aside, the Habs' drafting record in the Gainey-Timmins era is fantastic. Here's a list of every player the Habs drafted from '95-'97 - compare and reel in shock:

95 to 97 (signature Reggie Houle)

Over three years, all the Habs had to show for their efforts were 1 decent goalie - Garon; 3 borderline skaters - Robidas, Asham, Ward.

Now, 03 to 05, under Savard (03) and Gainey (04-05), but really under Trevor Timmins: 2 Kostitsyns, Latendresse, Price, Lapierre, Halak, Chipchura, Grabovski (with pick number 150, for heaven's sake), and a bunch of other potential NHLers (Yemelin, Juraj Mikus, D'Agostini, O'Byrne).

So instead of tanking for the draft, make the playoffs and use the revenues from the two home dates to lock up Trevor Timmins to a long-term extension...

[Athlétique.Canadien]

The Habs have the 2nd worst record in the league since Xmas. Only Washington is worse. That is going to change.

I said it before: No Effort + No pride + No talent = No Playoffs. Let's hope for a high pick.

:?-

[JMMR]

Well with Tampa losing today they are now 4 points above the Habs in 6th place with a very tough sched to finish the season.

[Pierre the Great]

Of course they control their destiny. Just got win and see what happens.

[Bacchus]

All this tank-for-the-draft talk seems pretty useless to me. Realistically, even if the Habs went back into the total tailspin of January, it's almost impossible to imagine them finishing worse than 23rd overall - they're 11 points ahead of Edmonton in 24th. That's only about 5 spots in the order in what everyone's calling a weak draft.

Let's look at the 1992 draft and the choices from 7 through 13:

7 Philadelphia Ryan Sittler L

8 Toronto Brandon Convery C

9 Hartford Robert Petrovicky C

10 San Jose Andrei Nazarov L

11 Buffalo David Cooper D

12 Chicago Sergei Krivokrasov R

13 Edmonton Joe Hulbig L

Yes, Edmonton would have done much better to tank that year. Instead of being stuck with Joe Hulbig, they could have gotten Ryan Sittler, Brandon Convery or superstar forward Robert Petrovicky!

The sharper observers among us will point out that with pick number 7, the Flyers could just have easily picked up Sergei Gonchar, Jason Smith or Martin Straka. But those guys were still around when the 13th pick came up, too, and the players selected in between were all dross to a man.

Lessons to be drawn:

1. Smart draft choices are not always earlier choices. Your strategy for drafting well should focus on building a good scouting force and recognizing their good hunches and bad ones, and not by instructing your current team to lose so that you can jump a couple of spots in line.

2. Even with good scouting, a draft is still about 50% crapshoot. The first 2 or 3 overall picks are usually solid bets to be impact players, but you get washouts pretty soon after that. Look at the top 10 draft picks from 1995-01 - the years upon which it's safe to pronounce judgment - and ask yourself how many of the 10 would even crack the Habs lineup today - much less be impact players. The number floats around 6. And once you factor in the gems that get drafted late in the day after every team has passed on them at least 5 times - Michael Ryder? Andrei Markov? Mikhail Grabovski? Mark Streit? Jaroslav Halak? - and the crapshoot becomes even more obvious.

Yes, of course, it's preferable to be able to choose before other teams. But beyond the second or third pick overall, four or five spots makes little difference in the long run. Now, balance that against what the identity of 'loser' does to every team member on a squad...failing to make the playoffs, or failing to put up a decent fight, would be a lot more 'expensive' in the team's development of Kostitsyn - Latendresse - Komisarek - Halak - Higgins - Plekanec - etc - etc than the cost to the team's long-term health of having to wait five more minutes on draft day to roll the dice.

________

As an aside, the Habs' drafting record in the Gainey-Timmins era is fantastic. Here's a list of every player the Habs drafted from '95-'97 - compare and reel in shock:

95 to 97 (signature Reggie Houle)

Over three years, all the Habs had to show for their efforts were 1 decent goalie - Garon; 3 borderline skaters - Robidas, Asham, Ward.

Now, 03 to 05, under Savard (03) and Gainey (04-05), but really under Trevor Timmins: 2 Kostitsyns, Latendresse, Price, Lapierre, Halak, Chipchura, Grabovski (with pick number 150, for heaven's sake), and a bunch of other potential NHLers (Yemelin, Juraj Mikus, D'Agostini, O'Byrne).

So instead of tanking for the draft, make the playoffs and use the revenues from the two home dates to lock up Trevor Timmins to a long-term extension...

Good points. Tanking would' help us much ... but I wouldn't be sad if we have to miss the playoffs, that we REALLY miss the playoffs.

But, that being said, I wouldn't count the team out yet!

[Jean]

Well now Florida and Boston are too far behind to realistically hope to catch up.. Should I add Tampa, they are only 4 pts ahead afterall