Predict the season to be!

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Assuming that Gainey is done for the summer...how do you feel about our team's chances? This is about your honest expectation, not wish fulfillment...

In retrospect, I should have made the fifth option count as 'slight to significant improvement.' I think gradual progression by youth will make the team better, but by how much is not clear to me.

Edited August 9, 2007 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber

[SAKS-AVENUE]

They will come out of the box smoking hot......bomb in the middle and then win the last ten games to make it into the play-offs only to get knocked out by the team that wins the cup.

[CoRvInA]

stats say the team is slightly worse than last year. assuming the players play as good or as bad as last year and we don't get sabotaged like last year when the opposing team snuck in that gastro bug in the water bottles! We should scrape into 8th place

now if the younglings improve 10% 15% 20%? Thats the advantage were gonna get

[sbhatt]

Healthier Kovy, continued improvement by young players, healthy Huet (and no Aebi), wiser (please, God!) Carbo = slight improvement

Edited August 9, 2007 by sbhatt

[Chips]

Yep! normally I would be willing to put my neck on the line and make a crazy prediction. But seeing as training camp this year is going to be absolutely HUGE! in terms of players, having a chance to step up and prove to management they need to be in the bigs, add to that the fact that we are stacked in a few of the positions we are in good shape for a early season trade.

GO HABS GO!

[l<OV4L3V]

I feel a very inconsistent two months, a hot streak before and a little after Christmas break, a tanking around the all star game, panic in Montreal...and some big names on their way out the door and some new ones on the way in...Cant put it in more of a nutshell then that really...I don't see this team having a good post-season run unless they bring in that big name. Unless the rookies randomly pull tricks out of their hats...which i really hope they do...trust me...i want the cup back in MTL just as badly as any of you...but as far as this season goes. 1) Carbo/Muller still in their 2nd year of coaching 2) Rookies taking selfish and undisciplined penalties 3) Our PK wont be as solid without bonk/PP without Souray 4) The team has to play 3 periods of hockey if they want to finish top 5 in the east...not just playing 1.5 or two and taking the other one off. If all of the above can be proven wrong, then please prove me wrong Habs!

[Punkned]

The Cup is inevitable, dammit! [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]

Oh yeah! BELIEVE !

[saskhab]

Same as every year. Making the playoffs isn't a sign of improvement and missing them isn't a sign of decline for this team, because they finish with virtually the same point totals year in and year out. Somewhere between 85 and 95 points is about 90% likely.

I'd only say this team improved or regressed if they finished with 100+ points or below 80 points.

[lazy26]

I voted for #3, but I would have liked to combine #3 and #5. If all those things happen, I think we can expect slight to significant improvement over last year. I think we're looking anywhere from 10th to 6th in the East, with the potential to upset in the 1st round of the playoffs.

But then again, there's always intangibles we haven't thought of, although Chicoutimi Cucumber has got a lot of the crucial ones down. And I suppose it really does remain to be seen if Gainey is working on anything.

[JoeLassister]

voted for #3 ###### this flu !!!

[BTH]

Both the 3rd one and the 5th one.

[MAK]

the real fan in me sees us getting the cup every year.

but the realistic fan in me sees another version of the philadelphia flyers.

Ok, maybe not THAT bad but teams that were lower than us made some moves to upgrade while we stayed put.

I see a team like florida make the playoffs while the likes of atlanta and tampa bay will make the playoffs. I also see the leafs and still buffalo make it as well.

I wouldve like for gainey and carbo to give a legit chance to youngsters to have significant roles this year. the only one I see is kostitsyn. He'll play with kovy and plekanek.

the rest...not much

they're not better offensively, they're not better defensively. they probably have a better 2nd fidler in halak than aebischer and they have more toughness in kostopoulos begin and lapierre( that's a real 4th line).

unfortunately they still carry too much dead wood( dandenault, murray, kovalev, brisebois) to be a force in this league.

for those who keep on waitin on gainey to pull the trigger on a blockbuster: don't stay up too late. Gainey hasn't done any major ones in his last 4 years( ok he looked good on the kovalev trade) and I don't think he will.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

One thing to remember is that we heard the same song and dance before last season as well - namely, that other teams in the Conference had improved significantly and that, therefore, the Habs were doomed to be basement-dwellers. While obviously we failed to make the dance, it turns out that our position didn't change all that much, we were quasi-dominant for the first half, and minus the flu we might well have made it. The lesson? Don't read *too* much into the supposed improvements that bad teams have made. Going into last season, many people expected Boston to be in the mix - instead, poof!

The fact is that the Habs have certain advantages over teams like Philly that make over their entire roster. We have stability and continuity and a system that everyone is accustomed to. We have players who know one another well, on and off the ice. And we also have a crop of young guys who have been brought along within a very well structured environment with good coachesd and managers at every level. That's why I wouldn't be terribly surprised to find the Habs bobbing along in 7th or 8th place in the Conference despite the fact that other teams made a bigger UFA splash.

At some point, we fans either have to believe in Gainey's approach of building from within, or we don't. 'Building from within' means precisely not hoping and praying for UFA saviours to come in on a white horse.

Edited August 10, 2007 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber

[saskhab]

One thing to remember is that we heard the same song and dance before last season as well - namely, that other teams in the Conference had improved significantly and that, therefore, the Habs were doomed to be basement-dwellers. While obviously we failed to make the dance, it turns out that our position didn't change all that much, we were quasi-dominant for the first half, and minus the flu we might well have made it. The lesson? Don't read *too* much into the supposed improvements that bad teams have made. Going into last season, many people expected Boston to be in the mix - instead, poof!

The fact is that the Habs have certain advantages over teams like Philly that make over their entire roster. We have stability and continuity and a system that everyone is accustomed to. We have players who know one another well, on and off the ice. And we also have a crop of young guys who have been brought along within a very well structured environment with good coachesd and managers at every level. That's why I wouldn't be terribly surprised to find the Habs bobbing along in 7th or 8th place in the Conference despite the fact that other teams made a bigger UFA splash.

At some point, we fans either have to believe in Gainey's approach of building from within, or we don't. 'Building from within' means precisely not hoping and praying for UFA saviours to come in on a white horse.

Well, I do definitely believe in good drafting and maintiaining a strong farm system, even with a lower UFA age and offer sheets meaning that you don't get to keep young players at a low rate for very long. But I think that team building has to use all 3 means available to do it... you don't have to sign a UFA superstar, but you can definitely improve your team through UFA. You can't rely too much on one aspect (either trades, UFAs, or drafting) or you're bound to have a limited upside. If you rely too much on trades, you have continuity issues or a weakened farm system (if you trade away picks). If you rely too much on UFAs, you are bound to have some bad contracts and underperformers. If you rely too much on the draft/farm system, you're going to be perenially inexperienced and unpredictable/inconsistent.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Well, I do definitely believe in good drafting and maintiaining a strong farm system, even with a lower UFA age and offer sheets meaning that you don't get to keep young players at a low rate for very long. But I think that team building has to use all 3 means available to do it... you don't have to sign a UFA superstar, but you can definitely improve your team through UFA. You can't rely too much on one aspect (either trades, UFAs, or drafting) or you're bound to have a limited upside. If you rely too much on trades, you have continuity issues or a weakened farm system (if you trade away picks). If you rely too much on UFAs, you are bound to have some bad contracts and underperformers. If you rely too much on the draft/farm system, you're going to be perenially inexperienced and unpredictable/inconsistent.

Yeah, I agree saskhaab. I don't say that we shouldn't be going after UFAs or trades. My point was simply that, if you believe in developing from within, you have to believe that this team can improve from within too. The line that the Habs are 'standing still' completely overlooks the fact that 'developing' means that our young players get better. And so the team does too. The only questions is, by how much?

But just looking at teams on paper, without factoring in the continued development of our young players, leads to a lot of garment-rending among Habs fans. And that's why I still say: either you believe in developing young talent, or you don't. If you do, then you don't see the Habs as 'standing still.'

[JMMR]

Even a slight improvement should mean playoffs at least.

[Pierre the Great]

They'll be second or third in the league standings until new years. Now hopefully they realize this year unlike the previous last two that the season doesn't end on Jan 1. If they continue the trend of the past two years it will be awesome in the first half, seeing shadows in the second and barely squeaking in.

Honestly this team when clicking is a good second round playoff team that can win a second round but not a SC team, yet.

If they can be consistent they'll be a 4/5 like they were the last two years in the first half of the season.

But, if they continue the lets go on vacation in the second half, 7/8 seed who won't get by the first round again.

Same prediction as last year. All depends on which team shows up. They need to stop the Jekyll and Hyde show.

[InsaneHABSfan]

#5 !!!!

Face it, that flu bug destroyed the team last year along with losing the starting goalie and Higgins for a long stretch.

I know you cannot blame it on injuries.. Ya right! That flu bug was enough for the Habs to get into the playoffs and past Leaf/Islander pretender teams. The young talent on the Habs is exactly the solution for the new NHL. With so many younger fans on the board I thought you guys would be saying "Youth Rules" compared to us old folks!

[Habitforming]

I took #5 as well. (I think I did)

Any team that makes the playoffs could go to the Stanley Cup finals, too many teams in the past 5-8 years have proven that to be a fact when they had no business being there.

Montreal could be the cup finalist this season. All they need is the youth to start to break out in the last month of the season like the Ducks had with Perry, Getzlaf, Penner. Realistically without those 3 players playing like they did through the cup run, they would have been ousted in the second round.

[Habitforming]

They'll be second or third in the league standings until new years. Now hopefully they realize this year unlike the previous last two that the season doesn't end on Jan 1. If they continue the trend of the past two years it will be awesome in the first half, seeing shadows in the second and barely squeaking in.

Honestly this team when clicking is a good second round playoff team that can win a second round but not a SC team, yet.

If they can be consistent they'll be a 4/5 like they were the last two years in the first half of the season.

But, if they continue the lets go on vacation in the second half, 7/8 seed who won't get by the first round again.

Same prediction as last year. All depends on which team shows up. They need to stop the Jekyll and Hyde show.

Gainey took care of the Jekyll and Hyde show already.

When the flu bug hit the players started to turn on each other because of lack of leadership throughout the dressing room (entire organization IMO).

Hamrlik, Smolinski, and Kostopoulos (hell even Brezer) all provide more leadership then the players that left. That was the major concern (aside from scoring, but Smyth would have added both in a perfect world)

We will finish 4th-5th in the conference.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Wow...38 responses so far and only 3 are pessimistic. And I tend to agree with many of the cautiously optimistic arguments made in this thread.

Let's hope we can stand by these opinions and not lose our nerve as amateur analysts when training camp starts and media 'experts' unanimously predict the Habs to be garbage.

Edited August 12, 2007 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber

[lazy26]

Wow...38 responses so far and only 3 are pessimistic. And I tend to agree with many of the cautiously optimistic arguments made in this thread.

Let's hope we can stand by these opinions and not lose our nerve as amateur analysts when training camp starts and media 'experts' unanimously predict the Habs to be garbage.

Why should this year be any different? I'm used to all the analysts putting us outside of a playoff spot... and I'll laugh to myself as usual.

[smon]

Well, last year I didn't laugh - they were actually right for once, as scary as it seems.

But every other year, yeah it definitely seems that way. I think the year before the Habs were picked for 12th and finished 7th...so, they usually never get it right.

[Habitforming]

Well, last year I didn't laugh - they were actually right for once, as scary as it seems.

But every other year, yeah it definitely seems that way. I think the year before the Habs were picked for 12th and finished 7th...so, they usually never get it right.

They were only right because of injuries in the last half and a flu bug that almost killed some guys, not because they were not a good team.

No expert could have predicted those things happening, and without them they were wrong.

Not a single expert said "gee maybe I was wrong" when the habs were 4th overall in the NHL and second in the conference for half the season.

[saskhab]

They gave up the 3rd most shots in the league, and no one saw more rubber on average than Huet. I don't think they were a good team, they had incredibly good goaltending. Even Gainey said the results in the first half didn't jive with reality (the famous 'inbalance'). This is exactly why I don't think Aebischer sucked the big one like the majority of fans do... he never was supposed to face that kind of an onslaught. He didn't fail his team, his team failed him.

There needs to be a massive improvement in this regard and I don't think it's as simple as a Souray for Hamrlik swap. We were the worst 5-on-5 team last year and we lost 2 of our best 5-on-5 forwards this offseason (Bonk & Johnson). There were fundamental problems with the team last year and we deserved our end result.

Special teams & goaltending are often the difference between contenders and champions, but they alone don't make a good team. Logic dicates that if there are more 5 on 5 minutes (or 4 on 4) in a game than special teams, and you're the worst team in a 30 team league at even strength, you won't be a good team.

So while you guys look at a combination of individual statistical improvements (Higgins gets 35 goals, Plekanec gets 70 points, Kostitsyn 50 or whatever) I'll be looking at team stat trends.

Also, if anyone looks at the East, there are no obvious weak sisters right now in the Conference... IMO, Florida is as much on the brink of a breakthrough thanks to their young core and great goaltending (well, with Vokoun, not like last year) as we are, if not more so. Atlanta looks worse, Buffalo looks worse, the Islanders really aren't a lot different potentially but massively different personnel, Boston looks the same except with a shared goaltending philosophy rather than 1 guy does everything (so they've got a long ways to go), Washington looks better though still needing a big growth defensively, Philly looks better, Toronto got some much needed goaltending help, the Rangers got deeper offensively (though not significantly better), Carolina stood pat with an aging D core but a young goalie, Tampa stood pat, Jersey took a big hit on Rafalski and a smaller one on Gomez (that can be made up internally, but likely not the Rafalski loss), Ottawa stood pat, and Pittsburgh added some more proven depth to their young core. Where do we fit in? Well, I can't really predict where a lot of teams fit in, and Montreal is one of them. There are too many variables to say we'll definitely improve our finish. Really, I think we're still in the muddy middle at the end of the day, which isn't really an improvement in my books even if we finish in 7th instead of 10th. In reality, that may only be the result of a better shootout record than last year. Does anyone really think that'd be a real improvement?