Expectations and Hope

[bar]

I read people's assessment of the habs and they say pretty much the same team "they aren't 1 player from the cup", "they are not a cup contender", why? They are 5 pts behind a Bruins team that somehow is destined for the cup, thats 2.5 wins. Am I dumb to think the habs have a chance for the cup? As do any of the 16 teams that make the playoffs? I know reporters, and bloggers have to be impartial, but I'm a fan, I don't have to be, I just don't understand the lack of hope for the habs.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I read people's assessment of the habs and they say pretty much the same team "they aren't 1 player from the cup", "they are not a cup contender", why? They are 5 pts behind a Bruins team that somehow is destined for the cup, thats 2.5 wins. Am I dumb to think the habs have a chance for the cup? As do any of the 16 teams that make the playoffs? I know reporters, and bloggers have to be impartial, but I'm a fan, I don't have to be, I just don't understand the lack of hope for the habs.

Wamsley and I had a few posts about this in the thread from the Florida game. Basically, there are 4-5 bona fide contenders this year - Vancouver, Philadelphia, Boston, Detroit, and *maybe* if we want to stretch it, San Jose. Pittsburgh is out because of their injuries, and Washington needs an army of therapists. That is an unusually thin pool. The question we should consider as Habs fans is not whether we can beat Philly (we can't) or Boston (we can), but whether we have as good a chance as anyone of going to the Finals should Boston and Philadelphia falter. And as I said in the other thread, we can certainly beat any of the other five playoff teams if we bring our 'A' game and have no further key injuries. Of course it'll be a dogfight, but I'm happy with our club in a 7-game series against anyone in the Conference except Philly and maybe Boston.

It's harder to imagine how the Finals would play out - I can't even think that far ahead. But obviously we'd be a longshot to beat savvy Detroit, skilled Vancouver, or hulking San Jose (I think we stand the best chance against the Canucks). Heck, Nashville would be a horrible matchup for us because of the nature of their system and team. LA might be a good matchup, by contrast, because they're so young; our wily veterans could take it to them.

In any case, the pessimists are right to say that we are not in the same class as those 4-5 top teams. They are wrong to assume that means we can't go the distance, first because upsets happen all the time in the playoffs, and second, because far fewer upsets will be necessary this season than in most years because of parity. Cautious optimism is the appropriate attitude.

[bar]

Phillys recent troubles is what makes me laugh at people projecting certain teams as favourites. How can Vancouver be a favourite considering their past playoff record haha, but I understand what you're saying CC, it's just easier to be negative than positive, and every thing I read either on a forum or website is that the habs have no chance, I'm sure the players do not feel that way.

[BTH]

Hopefully, New Jersey grabs the 8th seed. They'd have a serious chance of beating Philly.

Habs probably have a 7-8% chance of winning the Cup this season. If they encounter Philly, they're out, and they'll probably have to.

I get the feeling Montreal is on the verge of passing at least one of Pittsburgh and Washington and finishing in the 4th or 5th seed. This might delay Philly another round and give a second team the opportunity to knock them out for us.

[bar]

I think I'm just that always glass half-full super fan haha, there's no team I wouldn't give Montreal a chance of beating, everyone wants to avoid Philly, the drama, the storyline shows thats who I WANT the team to play, avoiding certain teams or hoping another team knocks them out seems very lame haha.

[BTH]

I think I'm just that always glass half-full super fan haha, there's no team I wouldn't give Montreal a chance of beating, everyone wants to avoid Philly, the drama, the storyline shows thats who I WANT the team to play, avoiding certain teams or hoping another team knocks them out seems very lame haha.

Well, of course they have a chance of beating Philly, I just think it's a small chance and that the likeliest way of them making it to the finals is if somebody else knocks them out. I'd give Montreal at least a 40% chance against any other team in the East. Against Philly, it's like 15%.

[dlbalr]

I read people's assessment of the habs and they say pretty much the same team "they aren't 1 player from the cup", "they are not a cup contender", why? They are 5 pts behind a Bruins team that somehow is destined for the cup, thats 2.5 wins. Am I dumb to think the habs have a chance for the cup? As do any of the 16 teams that make the playoffs? I know reporters, and bloggers have to be impartial, but I'm a fan, I don't have to be, I just don't understand the lack of hope for the habs.

I'm guessing one of those quotes came from my latest piece on HW. Any team who makes the playoffs has a chance to win the Cup, but when I think 'true contender,' generally the thought of, "boy, I hope we don't have to face so and so" doesn't fall in the same sentence. With the Habs, I think most would agree Philly would pose a significant challenge, as might Boston. Beyond them, no, the Habs can't be considered much worse (or better) than the others, but if you're at least somewhat leery of facing 2/7 Eastern opponents, you simply can't call yourself 'a contender.' As I noted in my article yesterday, I think the Habs can win a round for sure, particularly if they play the way they did on the trip. Can they make another run like last year? Sure, it's possible, but they may have to get a favourable matchup or two along the way; most Eastern teams can honestly say that too. They'll be in the mix when it counts though and that's all that matters at this time.

[BlueKross]

Well, of course they have a chance of beating Philly, I just think it's a small chance and that the likeliest way of them making it to the finals is if somebody else knocks them out. I'd give Montreal at least a 40% chance against any other team in the East. Against Philly, it's like 15%.

I got a chance to win the lottery. The good news is the Canadiens have a better chance to win the SC. I am not throwing any ticket away just yet.

[ForumGhost]

All of this stuff about deciding who's a contender and who isn't is simply guessing. When was the last time the 'favourite' won the cup, aside from maybe Detroit?

Edited March 7, 2011 by ForumGhost

[Wamsley01]

The problem is who decides who is a contender? Who creates that expectation? Generally it is set by point value and the media. Neither are the greatest demonstration of team strength in a short series.

The genius of the NHL playoffs is tiny sample size. Add in a hot goaltender, an increase in luck or injuries and what seems like a mismatch becomes a monumental upset. In the regular season there is not intense scouting of individual teams and their shortcomings. If a team has a fatal flaw that can be exposed then it usually results in a major flameout.

For a fanbase that has had two parades that nobody expected and last years fortunate run, it is silly to worry about whether people think we are a true contender or not.

Logic dictated that Paul DiPietro couldn't score 8 goals in 1993. It dictated that Claude Lemieux couldn't score 10 goals in 1986 or that Patrick Roy coming off the worst season of his career could lead the Habs to a Cup.

Enjoy the ride win or lose. They can win the Cup in 2011, just don't bet your house on it.

Edited March 7, 2011 by Wamsley01

[YeahBud]

I believe. I think our team is looking stronger and stronger. The recent road trip did wonders for our confidence and the young guys (Lars included) look to have gained some swagger. Hopefully we are peaking as the other teams are fading. Its been a long season fraught with injuries but if the remaining soldiers play with heart and passion they can surely surprise the naysayers.

As a fan I would love to see us take out Philly or the Bruins but if some other team wanted to do it for us that would be nice too...

EDIT: JM please put Benoit, DD and MaxPac on a line already!

Edited March 7, 2011 by YeahBud

[Wamsley01]

I believe. I think our team is looking stronger and stronger. The recent road trip did wonders for our confidence and the young guys (Lars included) look to have gained some swagger. Hopefully we are peaking as the other teams are fading. Its been a long season fraught with injuries but if the remaining soldiers play with heart and passion they can surely surprise the naysayers.

As a fan I would love to see us take out Philly or the Bruins but if some other team wanted to do it for us that would be nice too...

EDIT: JM please put Benoit, DD and MaxPac on a line already!

That is the trap right there. That leads to the massive about face when they struggle and the blame game and the scapegoating.

The Capitals were 5-0-1 entering the playoffs last season, the Habs were 2-3-2 and lost to the Islanders and Leafs over the last 3 games when 1 win would have clinched.

[YeahBud]

That is the trap right there. That leads to the massive about face when they struggle and the blame game and the scapegoating.

The Capitals were 5-0-1 entering the playoffs last season, the Habs were 2-3-2 and lost to the Islanders and Leafs over the last 3 games when 1 win would have clinched.

You're so right, who am I kidding? I was wrong to be optimistic. Let me save you the trouble... Our boys will most likely go on a slide starting tomorrow at home and after subsequent losses on the road to the struggling blues and decimated Pens, we'll all be talking about how Coach Martin is an idiot and we should have kept Halak.. well some of us will be talking about this, while others just wax on with endless stats...

[BlueKross]

That is the trap right there. That leads to the massive about face when they struggle and the blame game and the scapegoating.

The Capitals were 5-0-1 entering the playoffs last season, the Habs were 2-3-2 and lost to the Islanders and Leafs over the last 3 games when 1 win would have clinched.

I think tomorrow's game against the Bruins will tell us alot about expectations and where we are.

[BrenDittero]

The Habs, given that they follow their defensive game plan, can beat any team in the league in the regular season. I don't believe there is any reason to think they couldn't do the same in the playoffs.

Their defense has been put through the ringer this season and they still sit in 6th place. If three games had turned out differently we would be sitting where Boston is now in the standings.

At this point it's only a five point difference with Boston and seven with Philly. With the points so close it's ridiculous to think that either team is significantly better than the Habs.

I would gladly welcome a first round match against Boston. It would be an amazing series and the perfect way to start the playoffs.

The Bruins are not a team of destiny. These fairytale stories present themselves every year and ultimately fizzle out. The Habs and the Flyers WERE the fairytale last year.

The Bruins are a club that has had a good run and I'm sure that run will come to an end.

And Philly, as of late, have shown that they are fully capable of losing games they probably should have won.

All that to say, the Habs are a contender and they have just as good a chance as anyone to win the cup this year.

[Wamsley01]

You're so right, who am I kidding? I was wrong to be optimistic. Let me save you the trouble... Our boys will most likely go on a slide starting tomorrow at home and after subsequent losses on the road to the struggling blues and decimated Pens, we'll all be talking about how Coach Martin is an idiot and we should have kept Halak.. well some of us will be talking about this, while others just wax on with endless stats...

I don't expect them to go on a slide, but I could have written what you wrote in November and then it would contradict December. Rinse and repeat with January and February.

If they lose the next two this team doesn't change. Words like swagger and confidence are overused and the inverse appears every time they struggle. I see a team that competes every single night and the result does not add swagger and confidence.

I think tomorrow's game against the Bruins will tell us alot about expectations and where we are.

Statement game right? Like the Canucks statement game followed by losing to the Leafs. Cliches, all of it.

This is a good team.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2011/3/7/2032502/bad-news-for-leafs-fans-and-good-news-for-habs-fans

And has been ALL year.

[Wamsley01]

The Habs, given that they follow their defensive game plan, can beat any team in the league in the regular season. I don't believe there is any reason to think they couldn't do the same in the playoffs.

Their defense has been put through the ringer this season and they still sit in 6th place. If three games had turned out differently we would be sitting where Boston is now in the standings.

At this point it's only a five point difference with Boston and seven with Philly. With the points so close it's ridiculous to think that either team is significantly better than the Habs.

I would gladly welcome a first round match against Boston. It would be an amazing series and the perfect way to start the playoffs.

The Bruins are not a team of destiny. These fairytale stories present themselves every year and ultimately fizzle out. The Habs and the Flyers WERE the fairytale last year.

The Bruins are a club that has had a good run and I'm sure that run will come to an end.

And Philly, as of late, have shown that they are fully capable of losing games they probably should have won.

All that to say, the Habs are a contender and they have just as good a chance as anyone to win the cup this year.

You are creating a scenario where if the Canadiens had a couple breaks they would be where Boston is, but do not afford the Bruins the same in regards to losing Krejci, Savard etc and coming within a break or two of knocking off the Flyers last spring. If the Bruins had held onto a 3-0 lead twice they would have been in the Conference Finals.

The Bruins are not a fairytale, they have a top tier team with impact players.

[Colin]

The Bruins are fairies.

I thought that's what you said.

[YeahBud]

I could have written what you wrote in November and then it would contradict December

Not likely since I joined in February, but point taken...

If you haven't seen a change in Lars Eller's confidence with the puck over the last 3-4 games you haven't been watching...

Edited March 7, 2011 by YeahBud

[CoRvInA]

I expect the Habs to add Hank for the playoffs, tonight's game will be PG's indicator if the team needs more toughness

in case, here is another plain fn reason why he should be added come early spring!

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/Sports/Hockey/1249236098/ID=1831372329

[dlbalr]

I expect the Habs to add Hank for the playoffs, tonight's game will be PG's indicator if the team needs more toughness

in case, here is another plain fn reason why he should be added come early spring!

http://www.cbc.ca/vi...8/ID=1831372329

I don't see how Henry could help this team, at least as a defenceman. He skates worse than I thought, you can time his skating to centre ice with a calendar. As a 5 minute per game forward, perhaps, but not anything more I don't think.

[BrenDittero]

You are creating a scenario where if the Canadiens had a couple breaks they would be where Boston is, but do not afford the Bruins the same in regards to losing Krejci, Savard etc and coming within a break or two of knocking off the Flyers last spring. If the Bruins had held onto a 3-0 lead twice they would have been in the Conference Finals.

The Bruins are not a fairytale, they have a top tier team with impact players.

The whole point of this thread is about refuting the idea that the Habs are not a contender for the cup.

It does seem that most media outlets outside of Montreal don't give the Canadiens the time of day when it comes to the topic of winning the Stanley Cup.

My points about Montreal potentially being in Bostons spot are just to illustrate that things are very close in the east and that we should not be worried about who we go up against in the first round.

I'm not going to sit here and give them a 40% chance against Boston or 15% against Philly. They are my, and by virtue of posting here, everyone's favourite team. They will win the cup this year and will keep believing that until they get knocked out of the playoffs.

One reoccurring theme here seems to be this insistence of dropping stats from previous years. In the 2010 / 2011 season this doesn't matter:

" if the Bruins had held onto a 3-0 lead twice they would have been in the Conference Finals"

This has no influence on what will happen in the next 8 weeks.

What matters is that the Bruins are being propped up as one of only 4 teams in the east that have a shot at the cup and I think that is blatantly wrong.

Edited March 7, 2011 by BrenDittero

[Wamsley01]

The whole point of this thread is about refuting the idea that the Habs are not a contender for the cup.

It does seem that most media outlets outside of Montreal don't give the Canadiens the time of day when it comes to the topic of winning the Stanley Cup.

My points about Montreal potentially being in Bostons spot are just to illustrate that things are very close in the east and that we should not be worried about who we go up against in the first round.

I'm not going to sit here and give them a 40% chance against Boston or 15% against Philly. They are my, and by virtue of posting here, everyone's favourite team. They will win the cup this year and will keep believing that until they get knocked out of the playoffs.

One reoccurring theme here seems to be this insistence of dropping stats from previous years. In the 2010 / 2011 season this doesn't matter:

" if the Bruins had held onto a 3-0 lead twice they would have been in the Conference Finals"

This has no influence on what will happen in the next 8 weeks.

What matters is that the Bruins are being propped up as one of only 4 teams in the east that have a shot at the cup and I think that is blatantly wrong.

You brought up the previous season in your destiny speech. Philly wasn't a team of destiny any more than the Bruins were. At the end of they day, none of them were. They all lost in the end.

BTW if you want to predict the future, history is the best indicator so I wouldn't dismiss it so easily.

[BrenDittero]

No where in my post do I try to predict the future. In a game like hockey where there are so many variables that would be impossible.

My " past season destiny speech " was about teams going on a hot streak and fizzling out. Philly absolutely was a team of destiny. They knocked out MTL who did the unthinkable by beating Washington and Pittsburgh. I know I thought they had a pretty good shot at the cup after that.

It was a great story.

Boston on the other hand...what can I say I'm not a Bruins fan.

I don't believe that past NHL seasons have any impact on this one. Any team is going to only get as far as their skill level will allow. Throw in a couple lucky breaks or unlucky ones and those will be the determining factors in how the rest of the season shapes up.

Not history.

The Canadiens are a top tier team who can beat Philly, Pitts, Wash, Tampa or Boston.

I welcome the idea of Montreal going toe to toe with another great team in the first round and I wouldn't put the odds against them.

Edited March 7, 2011 by BrenDittero

[Habsfan]

To reply to the original question...i'd say that if Markov were still around, I'd say we would definitely have a chance at the Cup. We wouldn't be favorites, but I would definitely consider the Habs as cup contenders. Without Markov, I just think we are missing too many elements.

On a positive note, I have to admit that they are doing alot better than I though they would do. When Markov went down, I was sure we'd miss the playoffs. Looks like we'll make them...but My gut tells me that we have a chance of going far as long as we don't run into the Flyers or the Bruins.