You're Marc Bergevin - What deal do you offer Subban?

[brobin]

I'd much rather sign a 23 or 24 year old to an 8 year deal then a 27 or 28 year old. I'dmuch rather have a guy locked up during his prime years (before he turns 31), then be forced to offer the long term years for the period that he is going to start his decline.

I was a big supporter of signing Gorges long term when he was an RFA. The habs could have signed Gorges for $1m to 1.5m/yr less if they signed him to a long term desk 5 months before they did. Even his agent said the habs could have saved a lot of money by signing him 5 months earlier.

Similarly when everyone was ragging on pleks and saying we should trade him after his miserable year, I had said I wanted him signed long term. Then when he got off to a hot start, I was saying to sign him long term, while most we're saying lets wait to see how he performs through the rest of the year. It cost a hell of a lot more to lock him up afterwards.

Teams that have players take home time discounts show faith in the guys they believe will become their core (based on their evaluation), players in turn return that faith with loyalty.

You are still making assumptions and guessing to get a cheap deal. If you look around, you are as likely to sign a bad deal as a good deal. I prefer paying what people are worth by going for shorter contracts. If the player gets even better, I don't mind paying more later. If he declines, I either dump him or sign him to what he is worth. Big money, long term equals high risk!

I don't see many examples of home town discounts. PK reportedly wants six a year, including 4 years of RFA time, leaving him a UFA at 29. PK is not a six million dollar player. That might be the top end for him at UFA. If I am taking a risk on him for six years, I want under 5 as the average. If PK feels he is a top ten D in the Nhl, prove it in the next two years, then negotiate the long term deal.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

If PK feels he is a top ten D in the Nhl, prove it in the next two years, then negotiate the long term deal.

Here's what I don't believe you understand when it comes to negotiations.

Subban doesn't have to prove he's a top 10 D. He just has to prove he's the best option for Montreal. Where else can Montreal get a player of Subban's calibre? Nowhere. I also bet you that the Rangers would trade Del Zotto or the Capitals would trade Carlson in a second for Subban because much like Price in the "Price or Halak?" question, Subban has the higher ceiling. Nobody in the league believes that Subban is done developing.

Beaulieu isn't ready to become what Subban is and there's nobody on the market for Montreal to get as good as him unless they give up assets in another area. Meehan knows this. Bergevin knows this. Subban knows this. Not to mention I'm sure Molson recognizes how much of a fan favourite Subban is. The Canadiens cannot replace this, even if Kaberle plays out of his mind for five games.

It doesn't matter if Edler signed cheap in Vancouver. It doesn't matter if Del Zotto took a bridge deal in New York. What matters is, can Montreal replace Subban's 20+ minutes with a solid plus minus and 30+ points? No. They also cannot rely on Markov to do it because Markov is 1) an injury hive 2) only signed until 2014 and 3) Already costs more money than what people want to pay Subban.

Montreal without Dryden was a great team but couldn't get by the first round without him. Montreal without Subban is a good team that will likely miss out on the playoffs without him. I don't mean the full season either. When you goto war, you want your whole artillery. Montreal is missing one of their biggest weapons if Subban continues to sit. And the longer he sits? The colder the weapon. It doesn't make team management sense.

[Commandant]

For a player as confident as PK, why is he hanging on signing a long term contract right now? Is it because he knows he is not what he makes fans/management believe him to be? If I'm PK, I want a small deal and sign a huge deal in a couple years, when my value will have skyrocketed. If I'm management, I want to lock PK long term now at a reasonable cost, while he is still progressing and hasn't reached his full value yet. My feeling is that PK wants the contract he could have 3 years from now if everything goes as he plans (win a couple Norris and Conn Smythe). Sorry PK, we all like you but you have to earn your way and we'll be very glad for you when you get it.

Players are one play away from the end of their career... No matter how good you are, it just takes one Chara/Pacioretty incident gone wrong and kiss your future contracts good bye.

Of course he wants security

[Commandant]

Offer Subban the Edler deal... and I bet he signs it.

As for Meehan/Bergevin agreeing on money.... I don't know about that.

I don't think they've agreed on money because Bergevin wants less money and less years.

Meehan wants more money and longer term.

The term is the bigger issue here, as the money will likely resolve if they come to an agreement on term.... but its not resolved yet either.

[brobin]

Edler's contract is again, a post bridge deal. He arguably has better numbers the PK, at least offensively. He still got less then what Meehan is asking for PK.

I still don't understand why Bergevin should lock up PK to a six year deal with four years of RFA left. I also don't understand why he would pay a premium for the privilege. I see zero benefit to the team beyond giving in to the fans short term hysteria.

[brobin]

As for Meehan/Bergevin agreeing on money.... I don't know about that.

I don't think they've agreed on money because Bergevin wants less money and less years.

Meehan wants more money and longer term.

The term is the bigger issue here, as the money will likely resolve if they come to an agreement on term.... but its not resolved yet either.

Bang on

[Commandant]

Edler's contract is again, a post bridge deal. He arguably has better numbers the PK, at least offensively. He still got less then what Meehan is asking for PK. I still don't understand why Bergevin should lock up PK to a six year deal with four years of RFA left. I also don't understand why he would pay a premium for the privilege. I see zero benefit to the team beyond giving in to the fans short term hysteria.

Edler also took a big discount vs what he could have got on the open market.

Compare his deal to Ehrhoff.... 10 years, 40 million dollar deal... front loaded so its really a 7 year 37 million deal, and Edler > Ehrhoff.

Lets remember too that Meehan's "asking price" for PK, and what they are willing to settle for, are two different things.

Just cause they are asking for 6 x 6 today, doesn't mean they expect to get that either, they will come down some, its a question of how far.

[brobin]

Edler also took a big discount vs what he could have got on the open market.

Compare his deal to Ehrhoff.... 10 years, 40 million dollar deal... front loaded so its really a 7 year 37 million deal, and Edler > Ehrhoff.Lets remember too that Meehan's "asking price" for PK, and what they are willing to settle for, are two different things.

Just cause they are asking for 6 x 6 today, doesn't mean they expect to get that either, they will come down some, its a question of how far.

Yes, I agree that step one is bridge vs long term and after that money will be negotiated. I think a long term deal coming off his entry deal is out of line with his negotiating position and not in the best interest of the club. Thirty in six is still a,bad deal for the habs. If he is really going to be great, we want more then two years beyond UFA when we lock him up. Since the risk is so high on an eight year deal, we can't do it. The answer is clear.. Bridge deal to reduce the risk, then sign a long term deal with more data on his real long term value.

If I was bergevin, I would look Meehan in the eye and say..."I am not Glenn Sather"

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

This whole discussion is handicapped by the fact that none of us have a clear idea of what the two sides are demanding.

Like Habs29, I love the idea of locking up PK. I don't share what may (or may not) be management's skepticism about his arc of development - to my mind he will never be worse than a dynamic #2 defenceman and may well become a top-10 NHL defender. Bergevin has shown a willingness to lock up young RFAs at affordable rates (Patches), so the issue here must be either PK's salary or Bergevin's doubts over whether he will regress.

Personally, I lock up PK for $5 mil or less, for as long as he wants. More than that, and the discussion gets sticky. Machine's idea that PK is indispensable to us and therefore should be paid like a superstar is nonsensical. That way lies the Zajac contract. The logic here is: we are a mediocre team; therefore we should significantly overpay players; therefore we will remain a mediocre team. No thanks. The Habs should draw a principled line and say they're not gonna overpay for RFAs at least (as for UFAs, everybody overpays. And this is one reason for playing the Vancouver card and asking players to accept a little less in the name of building a winner - it helps you sign those UFAs, like Dan Hamhuis, that can make a real difference).

But one thing's for sure: anger directed either at Bergevin ('stupid') or at Subban ('greedy') is misplaced. We just don't know the facts.

[brobin]

I generally agree with you cucumber, except that I don't want to lock up Subban now, unless it was really cheap. The reason is simple... If PK is a superstar, then I want him as a hab as long as possible. Why waste the RFA years? If he is great after a three year deal, we lock him up for six to eight years while we still have some leverage in negotiations. If he is just good, we pay the going rate for good. If he is the next Komo, we move on.

I remember people here demanding we give komisarek anything he wants, we must have him, his future is top pairing, etc.... They were wrong and I am glad we don't own that contract.(no, I don't think PK is the next Komi, but I do suggest many had as much lust for him back then as PK and were extremely upset we didn't give him a,long term deal)

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Machine's idea that PK is indispensable to us and therefore should be paid like a superstar is nonsensical. That way lies the Zajac contract. The logic here is: we are a mediocre team; therefore we should significantly overpay players; therefore we will remain a mediocre team. No thanks. The Habs should draw a principled line and say they're not gonna overpay for RFAs at least (as for UFAs, everybody overpays. And this is one reason for playing the Vancouver card and asking players to accept a little less in the name of building a winner - it helps you sign those UFAs, like Dan Hamhuis, that can make a real difference).

Vancouver had to overpay for talent before they became a league powerhouse. LA had to overpay for talent even when they became one of the favourites in the West, including RFAs. LA is also still willing to pay Dustin Penner more money than he deserves. Hell, speaking of Vancouver, did you see what they paid Jason Garrison, a one season wonder, and people acted like it was a pay cut to what he could have got? You know why? Because they still overpaid on the free agent market but the market for offensive defencemen with some defensive ability is so bloody dry, Garrison could have received more for $4.6M for six years to another team. He took less to be with a winner and play in his home province of British Columbia. Nobody is taking less to be a winner in Montreal. Brandon Prust's wife is from Montreal and we still had to make the highest bid for him. Why do we want a possible situation where we have to fill what Subban brought and overpay on the free agency market?

I would rather overpay for a player than cripple my team. Right now negotiations are still in good faith. The day it goes sour, how do you replace Subban? Truth is, you don't. You accept the team you have and hope to draft high. I'm sorry, not the Montreal Canadiens I'm hoping to see.

I'm also still waiting for someone to tell me how Dean Lombardi was a bad GM for giving Drew Doughty an eight year, $7M per year contract but Montreal would be bad for giving Subban comparative years at more than $5M. Reminds me of when people were saying the Sedin's at more than $5M each weren't worth it.

[hab29RETIRED]

Totally agree. I think if we sign PK for 2 yrs, at the end if that deal he will be looking for over $7m. After the lockout zakac just signed for$5.75m. Based in the premium for dmen, in for yrs with a rising cap subban could be over $8m in the market.

Vancouver had to overpay for talent before they became a league powerhouse. LA had to overpay for talent even when they became one of the favourites in the West, including RFAs. LA is also still willing to pay Dustin Penner more money than he deserves. Hell, speaking of Vancouver, did you see what they paid Jason Garrison, a one season wonder, and people acted like it was a pay cut to what he could have got? You know why? Because they still overpaid on the free agent market but the market for offensive defencemen with some defensive ability is so bloody dry, Garrison could have received more for $4.6M for six years to another team. He took less to be with a winner and play in his home province of British Columbia. Nobody is taking less to be a winner in Montreal. Brandon Prust's wife is from Montreal and we still had to make the highest bid for him. Why do we want a possible situation where we have to fill what Subban brought and overpay on the free agency market?

I would rather overpay for a player than cripple my team. Right now negotiations are still in good faith. The day it goes sour, how do you replace Subban? Truth is, you don't. You accept the team you have and hope to draft high. I'm sorry, not the Montreal Canadiens I'm hoping to see.

I'm also still waiting for someone to tell me how Dean Lombardi was a bad GM for giving Drew Doughty an eight year, $7M per year contract but Montreal would be bad for giving Subban comparative years at more than $5M. Reminds me of when people were saying the Sedin's at more than $5M each weren't worth it.

[JGC21]

Over on Habs I/O, somebody posted a rumour that Subban is going to sign a 6 year/$6.2 million offer sheet. If say an offer sheet did come from another team, do you think that's what's needed to break this stalemate?

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Over on Habs I/O, somebody posted a rumour that Subban is going to sign a 6 year/$6.2 million offer sheet. If say an offer sheet did come from another team, do you think that's what's needed to break this stalemate?

It might be, and I've heard myself that Subban has already been offered offer sheets in the past.

My fear is that Bergevin will let him walk when Subban, much like Shea Weber, is doing this to force the GM's hand.

[BlueKross]

Over on Habs I/O, somebody posted a rumour that Subban is going to sign a 6 year/$6.2 million offer sheet. If say an offer sheet did come from another team, do you think that's what's needed to break this stalemate?

Interesting. What would the compensation in picks be?

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Interesting. What would the compensation in picks be?

Last year, $6.2M was a first, second and third. Over $6.268M is Two first-round picks and a second- and third-round pick.

[hab29RETIRED]

Weber wasn't trying to force nashville's hand. They structured that deal hoping Nashville wouldn't match.

It might be, and I've heard myself that Subban has already been offered offer sheets in the past.

My fear is that Bergevin will let him walk when Subban, much like Shea Weber, is doing this to force the GM's hand.

[hab29RETIRED]

Unless Subban was to get a offer sheet from someone expected to finish in the bottom 5, I'd take subban over the picks.

Last year, $6.2M was a first, second and third. Over $6.268M is Two first-round picks and a second- and third-round pick.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

As I say, all we have are vague rumours, so I'm not panicking one way or the other. What I can say is that Bergevin had BETTER NOT be proceeding from the sorts of criticisms about Subban that Therrien made when he was a media figure - complaining that he is too brash, 'not a team player' and all that other old-school crap. I have no problem with Bergevin making a hockey assessment of what he thinks Subban is worth and driving a hard bargain on that basis. I have a huge problem with the whole punitive discourse around Subban's flamboyant personality. Subban brings it on the ice and drives opponents nuts. That's all I give a damn about, and it's all management should give a damn about too. Whether he adheres to some constipated 'code' of behaviour is completely irrelevant...or should be.

That's the one worrisome element to me in all this. Therrien didn't like PK when he was an analyst - basically because Therrien is a clown and PK has panache. If we end up losing PK because of that brain-dead jackass of a coach, I will be one pissed-off Cucumber.

[brobin]

As I say, all we have are vague rumours, so I'm not panicking one way or the other. What I can say is that Bergevin had BETTER NOT be proceeding from the sorts of criticisms about Subban that Therrien made when he was a media figure - complaining that he is too brash, 'not a team player' and all that other old-school crap. I have no problem with Bergevin making a hockey assessment of what he thinks Subban is worth and driving a hard bargain on that basis. I have a huge problem with the whole punitive discourse around Subban's flamboyant personality. Subban brings it on the ice and drives opponents nuts. That's all I give a damn about, and it's all management should give a damn about too. Whether he adheres to some constipated 'code' of behaviour is completely irrelevant...or should be.

That's the one worrisome element to me in all this. Therrien didn't like PK when he was an analyst - basically because Therrien is a clown and PK has panache. If we end up losing PK because of that brain-dead jackass of a coach, I will be one pissed-off Cucumber.

Bergevin was on hockey central and had only good things to say about PK. Meehan was on as well and said the negotiations were very professional and not at all personal.

[habs rule]

Bergevin was on hockey central and had only good things to say about PK. Meehan was on as well and said the negotiations were very professional and not at all personal.

neither was the lockout. hmmmmmm

[JMMR]

Unless Subban was to get a offer sheet from someone expected to finish in the bottom 5, I'd take subban over the picks.

Even if the team had an 80% chance to pick top 5 do you really believe the Habs would find a PK replacement in one of those picks?

Honestly I dont.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

This is the worst time to bank on a first overall pick too. Every team who misses the playoffs gets a shot at first overall.

[Zowpeb]

Here's what I don't believe you understand when it comes to negotiations.

Subban doesn't have to prove he's a top 10 D. He just has to prove he's the best option for Montreal. Where else can Montreal get a player of Subban's calibre? Nowhere. I also bet you that the Rangers would trade Del Zotto or the Capitals would trade Carlson in a second for Subban because much like Price in the "Price or Halak?" question, Subban has the higher ceiling. Nobody in the league believes that Subban is done developing.

Beaulieu isn't ready to become what Subban is and there's nobody on the market for Montreal to get as good as him unless they give up assets in another area. Meehan knows this. Bergevin knows this. Subban knows this. Not to mention I'm sure Molson recognizes how much of a fan favourite Subban is. The Canadiens cannot replace this, even if Kaberle plays out of his mind for five games.

Those points are less meaningful then the fact Subban and his agent can't create much of a competitive market.

It is hard to see a GM put out an offer sheet on Subban given the lock out that just ended. But it's really the only way they can force the Habs hand.

If someone offers Subban a $6.2M offer sheet I'd let him walk and take the picks.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Those points are less meaningful then the fact Subban and his agent can't create much of a competitive market. It is hard to see a GM put out an offer sheet on Subban given the lock out that just ended. But it's really the only way they can force the Habs hand. If someone offers Subban a $6.2M offer sheet I'd let him walk and take the picks.

And replace him with who? Oh right, nobody. Our three biggest issues last night was scoring, puck carrying and defence. Subban has the ability to help solve all three but specifically would improve our puck carrying and defence.

I sometimes feel like the brains of hockey fans are still suck in the mid 90s. People called Subban's scoring last season disappointing and he was top 30 in the league. So we're currently missing a top 30 scoring defenceman and wondering where our scoring was last night.

You add Subban while a healthy Gionta and Markov are there and scoring will increase. Gionta did score last night. Markov, believe it or not, couldn't replace Subban. This is why I keep stressing depth. Want to know why St. Louis is going to be a powerhouse this year? Depth. Why LA was a powerhouse last year? Depth.