The pick(s) we will get from the Monahan trade

[Peter Puck]

Okay, I tried to make sense of the celebrated confusing conditions in the trade we made with Calgary to take on Monahan and his contract.  I think the following description is correct, please feel free to correct me.

Corrected now to give the correct conditions in the "Key decision point".

 

I'm also interested to see which scenario will actually happen. 

Which do you believe will come to pass?  Which are you rooting for?

 

 

First decision:  If Calgary finishes 2023-2024 season and playoffs as one of the 13 best teams,
i.e., if Calgary is picking in 2024 between  20th and 32nd, we can choose to take that pick.
[I don't see this happening.]

 

Let's suppose the above doesn't happen.  Then we get a 1st round pick in either 2025 or 2026 from either Calgary or Florida.
It will almost surely be a 2025 1st rounder. 

 

There is only one scenario where we get a 2026 1st round pick (I'll call this case B(ii)).  
The only way we would get a 2026 1st rounder is if:
We don't get the 2024 pick (very likely) and

Florida's 2025 first rounder does not go to Calgary (see below why this might happen) and

Calgary wins the 2025 lottery getting the 2025 #1 overall (very unlikely).

If this remote scenario comes to pass, we would get the better of Calgary's and Florida's 2026 1st round pick and also would get Calgary's 2025 3rd round pick.
This is extremely unlikely. 

 

So we probably get a 2025 first rounder which would be from either Florida or Calgary.
Key decision point:

Either

(A)

Florida’s 2024 first-rounder is not top 10  [and then it goes to Philadelphia for Claude Giroux ]AND

Florida’s 2025 first-round pick is also not top 10

then Calgary gets Florida’s 2025 first-round pick (from the Matthew Tkachuk trade)
 

or

(B)

One of Florida’s 2024 and 2025 first rounder is top 10

then Florida’s 2025 first-round pick does not go to Calgary (and so they can't give it to us).

If Florida's 2024 first rounder is top 10 then they keep it instead of giving it to Philly.  Philly instead gets Florida's 2025 first pick and so Calgary gets Florida's 2026 first rounder. 

If Florida's 2025 first rounder is top 10 and they already paid Philly then Florida keeps their own 2025 first rounder and Calgary gets Florida's first pick in 2026.

 

If A happens then Calgary gets Florida's 2025 1st round pick (and might give it to us). 
If B happens then Calgary gets Florida's 2026 1st round pick (instead of Florida's 2025 1st rounder).

 

Next both A and B have subcases:
(A)  Florida's 2025 1st rounder is transferred to Calgary   and (i) Calgary earns a top 10 ten pick (after the lottery) in 2025: 

We get Florida's 2025 1st rounder (which will be in the range 11-32).

(A)  Florida's 2025 1st rounder is transferred to Calgary and (ii) Calgary's 2025 (after the lottery) pick is 11th-32nd. 

We get the better of the Calgary/Florida 2025 1st round pick (both of which will be in the range 11-32) .

 

(B) Florida misses the 2025 playoffs and (i) Calgary's 2025 pick (after the lottery) is 2nd-32nd:

We get Calgary's 2025 1st rounder.
 

(B) Florida misses the 2025 playoffs and (ii) Calgary's 2025 pick is 1st overall (after the lottery).

We are in the unlikely case described above: 

We get a 2026 1st rounder and Calgary's 2025 3rd rounder as described above.

 

There is also a chance to get a 4th rounder in case B(i)

(i.e., if Calgary does not get Florida's 2025 1st rounder) and
if both Florida’s and Calgary's 2025 1st round pick are 11th-32nd, and

Florida's pick is better than Calgary's and

Florida's pick  was transferred to another team [i.e., to Philadelphia] due to prior conditions,

then we also get Calgary’s 2025 4th round pick.

[DON]

Now my brain hurts, thanks.

[Neech]

So we want Calgary and Florida to both suck in 2024-25.

[alfredoh2009]

39 minutes ago, Peter Puck said:

Okay, I tried to make sense of the celebrated confusing conditions in the trade we made with Calgary to take on Monahan and his contract.  I think the following description is correct, please feel free to correct me.

 

First decision:  If Calgary finishes 2023-2024 season and playoffs as one of the 12 best teams,
i.e., if Calgary is picking in 2024 between  20th and 32nd, we can choose to take that pick.
[I don't see this happening.]

 

Let's suppose the above doesn't happen.  Then we get a 1st round pick in either 2025 or 2026 from either Calgary or Florida.
It will almost surely be a 2025 1st rounder. 

 

There is only one scenario where we get a 2026 1st round pick (I'll call this case B(ii)).  
The only way we would get a 2026 1st rounder is if:
We don't get the 2024 pick (very likely) and

Florida misses the playoffs next year and

Calgary wins the 2025 lottery getting the 2025 #1 overall (very unlikely).

If this remote scenario comes to pass, we would get the better of Calgary's and Florida's 2026 1st round pick and also would get Calgary's 2025 3rd round pick.
This is extremely unlikely. 

 

So we probably get a 2025 first rounder which would be from either Florida or Calgary.
Key decision point: Either (A) Florida makes the playoffs in 2024-2025  or (B) Florida misses the 2025 playoffs.

If A happens then Calgary gets Florida's 2025 1st round pick.
If B happens then Calgary gets Florida's 2026 1st round pick (instead of Calgary's 2025 1st rounder).

 

Next both A and B have subcases:
(A)  Florida makes the playoffs in 2024-2025  and (i) Calgary earns a top 10 ten pick in 2025: 

We get Florida's 2025 1st rounder.

(A)  Florida makes the playoffs in 2024-2025 and (ii) Calgary's 2025 pick is 11th-32nd. 

We get the better of the Calgary/Florida 2025 1st round pick.

 

(B) Florida misses the 2025 playoffs and (i) Calgary's 2025 pick is 2nd-32nd:

We get Calgary's 2025 1st rounder.
 

(B) Florida misses the 2025 playoffs and (ii) Calgary's 2025 pick is 1st overall.  We are in the unlikely case described above: 

We get a 2026 1st rounder and Calgary's 2025 3rd rounder as described above.

 

There is also a chance to get a 4th rounder in case B(i)

(i.e., if Florida misses the 2025 playoffs) and
if both Florida’s and Calgary's 2025 1st round pick are 11th-32nd, and

Florida's pick is better than Calgary's and

Florida's pick  was transferred to another team due to prior conditions,

then we also get Calgary’s 2025 4th round pick.

I’ll have to read this again next year before the draft !

Excellent work @Peter Puck !

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

It is complicated and I spent some time going through it a few days ago. Your description is pretty good. I found the following link with a chart pretty good. 

 

https://montrealhockeynow.com/2022/08/19/breaking-down-all-conditions-in-monahan-trade/

 

 

The way I see it, the best scenario is the following;

 

1) Florida finishes bottom 10 next year so they keep their 1st round pick next year (Philly gets their 2025 pick, Calgary will get their 2026 pick instead)

 

2) Calgary sucks in 2025, gets the #2 pick after the lottery in which case Montreal drafts #2 overall in 2025. If Calgary finishes with the #1 pick then Montreal gets their 2026 pick

 

 

That's the way I see it.  It can make your brain hurt trying to figure it out. 

 

 

 

[GHT120]

6 hours ago, DON said:

Now my brain hurts, thanks.

A nice handkerchief might help

 

[Peter Puck]

8 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

It is complicated and I spent some time going through it a few days ago. Your description is pretty good. I found the following link with a chart pretty good. 

 

https://montrealhockeynow.com/2022/08/19/breaking-down-all-conditions-in-monahan-trade/

 

 

The way I see it, the best scenario is the following;

 

1) Florida finishes bottom 10 next year so they keep their 1st round pick next year (Philly gets their 2025 pick, Calgary will get their 2026 pick instead)

 

2) Calgary sucks in 2025, gets the #2 pick after the lottery in which case Montreal drafts #2 overall in 2025. If Calgary finishes with the #1 pick then Montreal gets their 2026 pick

 

 

That's the way I see it.  It can make your brain hurt trying to figure it out. 

 

 

 

Thanks for pointing this out.  It looks the same as what I concluded.  Its very clear about the possibilities but doesn't yield a clear summary.

 

  Upon doing more research, I realized that what I called the "Key Decision Point" was incorrect in my first post.  I have now corrected it.

 

 

 

 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

Why is this deal so damn complicated?!

 

2025 second overall pick would be amazing 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, Peter Puck said:

Thanks for pointing this out.  It looks the same as what I concluded.  Its very clear about the possibilities but doesn't yield a clear summary.

 

  Upon doing more research, I realized that what I called the "Key Decision Point" was incorrect in my first post.  I have now corrected it.

 

 

 

 

 

You did a good job explaining it and put in a lot of effort.  Bottom line for me:

 

(1) If Calgary doesn't get Florida's 1st in 2025 then let's hope Calgary sucks in 2024/25

(2) If Calgary get's Florida's 1st in 2025 then let's hope both Calgary and Florida suck in 2024/25 (as Neech said)

 

I guess we want Calgary to suck no matter what. 

 

 

 

 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

37 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

I guess we want Calgary to suck no matter what. 

 

 

Actually that statement is not entirely correct. If, Calgary get's Florida 2025 1st round pick and Florida has a great season in 2024/25 then it would be better if Calgary drafted 11th overall (in which case we would get their pick) than in the bottom 10 (then Calgary would keep it and we get Florida's pick)

[DON]

12 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

Actually that statement is not entirely correct. If, Calgary get's Florida 2025 1st round pick and Florida has a great season in 2024/25 then it would be better if Calgary drafted 11th overall (in which case we would get their pick) than in the bottom 10 (then Calgary would keep it and we get Florida's pick)

For what is worth, draft folks mentioned 2024 draft is looking defense strong moreso than this year was.