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Big Picture Ideas, Questions and Predictions Based on Cap Management, Team Construction and the Theory of Everything


Butterface

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On 12/14/2024 at 8:29 PM, Butterface said:


Okay to understand you…

 

You would start with Matheson and Hutson ? So you would re-sign Matheson ?

Or move Guhle up and start building from Guhle and Hutson ?

 

And you’d build down from Caufield, Suzuki and Slafkovsky… and Montembeault ?

So you’d be looking for 2 more elite Defensemen. Two RHD I assume ? …. 
 

We aren’t far off. I’ve mapped out 8 years ahead on a spreadsheet. I have filled in all those positions with players we have control over and penciled them in as far out as three years. Where you look for them to excel before adding them in, I am looking for them to underperform before I remove them.

 

 

No, I would start with a clean slate like this:

image.png

 

And then, I would put the players under contract in the spot where I expect them to be. If a Matheson is not giving me 30 points, with a decent +/- or equivalent stat showing me he makes the team win more often than loose, then I would trade him for someone that would.

 

In this template, Hutson has not shown he can give me that production for multiple years, so the next contract will be up for negotiations to see if he fits within my template.

 

I did put placeholders for salary cap, but that is just that: a starting point. As the team is built, synergies should give an extra bump to the chances of competing.

 

The length of the contracts is shown in color. I would give bottom pair/trio less term.

 

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Starting with a clean slate is a good theoretical exercise.  Its not practical given that you already have a team with contracts. 

 

Also +/- is a terrible stat and anyone who is using it to judge NHL player value in 2024 is like 15 years behind the times if not more.  NHL teams are simply not using it to make contract and player acquisition decisions when there are so many better public analytics available, and surely even better private ones. 

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2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

No, I would start with a clean slate like this:

image.png

 

And then, I would put the players under contract in the spot where I expect them to be. If a Matheson is not giving me 30 points, with a decent +/- or equivalent stat showing me he makes the team win more often than loose, then I would trade him for someone that would.

 

In this template, Hutson has not shown he can give me that production for multiple years, so the next contract will be up for negotiations to see if he fits within my template.

 

I did put placeholders for salary cap, but that is just that: a starting point. As the team is built, synergies should give an extra bump to the chances of competing.

 

The length of the contracts is shown in color. I would give bottom pair/trio less term.

 


Thanks for the above Alfred…

 

I like the fact you are placing point targets and save percentage for contracts and positions. On a rebuild team full of rookies and untradeable vets, even the best defensemen will struggle with a positive plus minus. Goaltenders will be hard pressed to keep pucks out of the net … save percentage might be okay… their goals against per game might not look good.

 

So by this you would not have given Suzuki, Caufield or Slaf longer than 3 or four year contracts ? Same with Hutson after this season. He might not qualify for a bottom pairing dman by year’s end on your board.

 

Next year for me Hutson is minimum a 3 and maybe a 1 (on our team)… (Matheson, Guhle and Hutson are all LHD. Not ideal.)

 

You would see Slaf, Caufield, Suzuki still as assets under evaluation… at best middling forwards so far in their career. Their agents might not accept 5M contracts. You’d open yourself up to hold outs and offer sheets.

 

Whereas you are waiting to put them into a slot when they hit certain point totals etc, I see them in their core role already, hoping their stats grow into their contract.

 

My problem is if a player like Slafkovsky doesn’t perform to expectations on a longer term contract. I now have an underperforming asset on a long term contract. You haven’t made those contract gambles early in their career because they have not hit your targets. But you also are never getting a bargain contract. Suzuki and Caufield contracts are bargains at the moment.

 

I’m starting from a full slate with salary cap dollar percentages in mind for a group of players (8 plus goalie 65% cap, 4-5 second tier 21% cap, 9-10 bottom tier 14% cap). You are starting from a blank slate and adding them in as they perform from your “investment assets” of 50 contracts… pencilling them in at equal dollar amounts similar to what Hughes has done with Suzuki, Caufield and Slaf.

 

I like your simplicity of giving them equal dollars, but it is hard to do when caps keep rising and contracts are renegotiated in different years for different terms. Hughes is trying to do it with his core… 7.6, 7.9, 7.9 Toronto was trying to do it with theirs all about 10-11m … now Mathew’s has jumped out. Marner might get 15M next year. Hard to keep equality. I think you should do percentages of cap instead. (Or maybe 8,8,8 was just a simple way of showing us and you could just as easily said 9,9,6 or 27% of cap)

 

I have chosen my core already. I understand keeping them all will be very difficult when some come off their ELCs and some vets will need to be renewed from their core salaries. But by building out the years and guesstimating new contract dollars and terms I am prepared in advance to move on from core players that aren’t fitting under the cap.

 

Your way of waiting for player results doesn’t allow you to see into the future too far in advance unless your players live up to their designated slots in quick fashion.

 

Can you fill in your designated slots with player names now ? What would it look like ?

 

Somebody like Matheson is great on a team. If he were younger by 3 years and we didn’t have Hutson or Mailloux, I would definitely look at keeping him. As is stands, I think we need him next year just so we have some semblance of a defence, then we trade him for a pick or for a top 4 RHD for insurance purposes should Mailloux and/or Reinbacher be a bust.

 

 

 

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Thanks a lot of questions, I'll answer in-line:

 

1 minute ago, Butterface said:


Thanks for the above Alfred…

 

I like the fact you are placing point targets and save percentage for contracts and positions. On a rebuild team full of rookies and untradeable vets, even the best defensemen will struggle with a positive plus minus. Goaltenders will be hard pressed to keep pucks out of the net … save percentage might be okay… their goals against per game might not look good.

[🥔] some of these stats are flaky at best, it is what I had on my old spreadsheet. Basically, whatever stat wou prefer to use. Just pick one (I was using Hockey-Reference's Point Shares at some point: an estimate of the number of points contributed by a player.)

 

So by this you would not have given Suzuki, Caufield or Slaf longer than 3 or four year contracts ? Same with Hutson after this season. He might not qualify for a bottom pairing dman by year’s end on your board.

[🥔] The Habs have Suzuki, Slafkovsky and Caufield on long contracts. I would have waited for Caufield and Slaf to show more maturity before singing them to those contracts.

Next year for me Hutson is minimum a 3 and maybe a 1 … (Matheson, Guhle and Hutson are all LHD. Not ideal.)

[🥔] I like Hutson, he is an unbelievable talent. Didn't Gostisbehere do great in his rookie season? 64GP, 17g 29a 46pts +8

You would see Slaf, Caufield, Suzuki still as assets under evaluation… at best middling forwards so far in their career. Their agents might not accept 5M contracts. You’d open yourself up to hold outs and offer sheets.

[🥔] I think these three are excellent, but I wish the  Habs would have left room to sign a true elite forward to take them to the next level. The painted themself in a corner by making these three the best paid forward on the team, before they prove they can win in the playoffs. I am not a fan of the contracts, I am definitely a fan of the players

 

Whereas you are waiting to put them into a slot when they hit certain point totals etc, I see them in their core role already, hoping their stats grow into their contract.

 

My problem is if a player like Slafkovsky doesn’t perform to expectations on a longer term contract. I now have a problem. You haven’t made those contract gambles early in their career because they have not hit your targets. But you also are never getting a bargain contract. Suzuki and Caufield contracts are bargains at the moment.

[🥔] It was a tough call. I trust the team made the right call. I would not have made it, but I am just a fan on a forum spitballing it

 

I’m starting from a full slate with salary cap dollar percentages in mind for a group of players (8 plus goalie 65% cap, 4-5 second tier 21% cap, 9-10 bottom tier 14% cap). You are starting from a blank slate and adding them in as they perform from your “investment assets” of 50 contracts… sliding them at equal dollar amounts similar to what Hughes has done with Suzuki, Caufield and Slaf.

[🥔] To be honest, I have not spent the time to try to understand if HughGort has structured his cap/roster in this way. I vannot say one way or the other.

 

I like your simplicity of giving them equal dollars, but it is hard to do when caps keep rising and contracts are renegotiated in different years for different terms. Hughes is trying to do it with his core… 7.6, 7.9, 7.9 Toronto was trying to do it with theirs all about 10-11m … now Mathew’s has jumped out. Marner might get 15 next year. Hard to keep equality. I think you should do percentages of cap instead. (Or maybe 8,8,8 was just a simple way of showing us and it could just as easily said 9,9,6)

[🥔] It is just a starting point. Salaries will vary depending on negotiations with the agents. In this model, Gallagher and Anderson stick out as a sore thumb; but on Bergevin's salary structure it made sense. The contracts have not aged well (I am going to get mauled on this opinion)

 

I have chosen my core already. I understand keeping them all will be very difficult when some come off their ELCs and some vets will need to be renewed from their core salaries. But by building out the years and guesstimating new contract dollars and terms I am prepared in advance to move on from core players that aren’t fitting under the cap.

[🥔] In my model, the shorter contracts are meant to roll the roster: cut the players underperforming, graduate the prospect who have earned a spot, fill the holes with cheap UFAs.

 

Your way of waiting for player results doesn’t allow you to see into the future too far in advance unless your players live up to their designated slots in quick fashion.

[🥔] This is where professional scouting, internal evaluation and coaching makes a difference. I didn't think Heineman would be this good. The organization evaluated him well on the trade. On the other hand, Barron has not panned out.

 

Can you fill in your designated slots with player names now ? What would it look like ?

 

Somebody like Matheson is great on a team. If he were younger by 3 years and we didn’t have Hutson or Mailloux, I would definitely look at keeping him. As is stands, I think we need him next year just so we have some semblance of a defence, then we trade him for a pick or for a top 4 RHD for insurance purposes should Mailloux and/or Reinbacher be a bust.

 

 

 

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My filled-in table:

  Potential yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 yr5 yr6 yr7 yr8 yr9 yr10    
Patrick Laine 25g, 90pts $8.7M $8.7M X X X X X X X X $8.0M 8.7
Nick Suzuki 25g, 90pts $7.85M $7.85M $7.85M $7.85M $7.85M $7.85M X X X X $8.0M 7.85
Cole Caufield 25g, 90pts $7.85M $7.85M $7.85M $7.85M $7.85M $7.85M $7.85M X X X $8.0M 7.85
Juraj Slafkovsky 20g, 50pts $0.95M $7.6M $7.6M $7.6M $7.6M $7.6M $7.6M $7.6M $7.6M X $5,0M 0.95
Kirby Dach 20g, 50pts $3.3625M $3.3625M RFA X X X X X X X $5,0M 3.3625
2LW-TBD (Newhook for now) 20g, 50pts $2.9M $2.9M $2.9M X X X X X X X $5,0M 2.9
3C-TBD (Dvorak for now) 20g, 50pts $4.45M X X X X X X X X X $5,0M 4.45
Anderson 20g, 50pts $5.5M $5.5M $5.5M X X X X X X X $5,0M 5.5
Gallagher 20g, 50pts $6.5M $6.5M $6.5M X X X X X X X $5,0M 6.5
Heineman   $0.8975M RFA X X X X X X X X $1.5M 0.8975
Evans   $1.7M X X X X X X X X X $1.5M 1.7
4RW-TBD (Armia for now)   $3.4M X X X X X X X X X $1.5M 3.4
                           
LD1-TBD (Matheson for now) 30pts,+45 $4.875M $4.875M X X X X X X X X $7.0M 4.875
RD2-TBD (Savard for now) 30pts,+45 $3.5M X X X X X X X X X $7.0M 3.5
LD2-Guhle 10g,+20 $0.8633M $5.5M $5.5M $5.5M $5.5M $5.5M $5.5M $5.5M $5.5M X $4,0M 0.86334
RD2-TBD (Hutson for now) 10g,+20 $0.95M $0.95M RFA X X X X X X X $4,0M 0.95
Xhekaj 5g,+10 $1.3M $1.3M RFA X X X X X X X $2.0M 1.3
RD3-TBD (Barron for now) 5g,+10 $1.15M $1.15M RFA X X X X X X X $2.0M 1.15
                           
G1-TBD (Montembeault for now) <3.0GA, >.920% $3.15M $3.15M $3.15M X X X X X X X $4M 3.15
G2-TBD (Primeau for now) <3.5GA, >.900% $0.89M RFA X X X X X X X X $2M 0.89
                           
Extra-F (Pezzetta for now)   $0.8125M X X X X X X X X X $1M 0.8125
Jayden Struble   $0.8675M RFA X X X X X X X X $1M 0.8675
                        TOTAL

72.41834

 

 

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Notes on the table:

* Slaf would take Laine's spot if he is not resigned.

* Dach stays. Newhook doesn't

* Dvorak could be replaced by eck to finish the season

* Demidov would have a spot on the mid-6 if he comes to Montreal.

 

If I was GM, I would use prospects and picks in the summer to re-jig the defensive core.

* Matheson would be an excellent 2nd pair LD if we had a stud LD in front of him

* With a stud shutdown RD, Hutson can be an excellent 2nd pair RD, quarterback the power play and flourish

* Once they start competing in the playoffs, they will need better goalies.

 

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Ok, so you do have the players pencilled in to their spots even though they haven’t qualified for those spots as yet… except for Heineman who has no point targets and is paid less than his 1.5M slot. (Evans, Armia and Slafkovsky are paid over their allotted dollars)…

 

My spreadsheet I can see where we have over-spent/under-spent along the roster and have a rough idea of how to re-jig it to balance the group better. I’m not looking for specific goals or points targets… but my contract dollar and term amounts will reflect production or expected production.

 

If I was building a team, I would want it to look like this…

 

A cap of $100,000,000 to make it easy for percentages:

 

1st Line Center – $12,000,000 Role: Elite playmaker and offensive leader.

1st Line Wing – $9,000,000 Role: High-scoring winger, power-play contributor.

1st Line Wing – $6,000,000 Role: High-scoring winger, power-play contributor.
2nd Line Center – $6,500,000 Role: Two-way center, shutdown specialist.

2nd Line Wing – $5,500,000 Role: Physical forward, secondary scorer.

2nd Line Wing – $5,000,000 Role: Physical forward, secondary scorer.

Top Pair Defenseman – $7,500,000 Role: Elite offensive and defensive impact.

Top Pair Defenseman – $6,500,000  Role: Shutdown defender, reliable in all zones.

Starting Goalie – $8,500,000 Role: Franchise goaltender, plays big minutes.

2nd Pair Defenseman – $5,000,000 Role: Solid, reliable depth defenseman.

2nd Pair Defenseman – $4,500,000 Role: Solid, reliable depth defenseman.

3rd Line Center – $4,000,000 Role: Strong defensive center, faceoff expert.

3rd Line Wing – $3,500,000 Role: Energy player, penalty killer.

3rd Line Wing – $2,500,000 Role: Energy player, penalty killer.

4th Line Center – $3,000,000 Role: Gritty, defensive specialist with faceoff focus.

4th Line Wing – $1,500,000 Role: Veteran energy player, plays on PK.

3rd  Pair Defenseman – $2,000,000  Role: Depth defender, plays limited minutes.

ELC Forward – $925,000 Role: Young forward with potential, bottom-six role.

ELC Defenseman – $925,000 Role: Mobile, puck-moving defenseman.

Depth Forward – $1,500,000 Role: Solid two-way depth forward, defensive focus.

Depth Defenseman – $1,500,000 Role: Physical depth defender with defensive responsibility.

Backup Goalie – $1,750,000 Role: Reliable backup goalie for spot starts.

Depth Forward - $1,000,000 Solid two-way depth forward, defensive focus.

 

The above is about 65%, 18%, 16% with a good balance in the 65%. (8 highest contracts plus goalie 65%) (Next 4-5 highest contracts at 18%)((Last 9-10 contracts at 16%)

 

On paper it is a solid looking team.

 

The better the ELC Player, the better off you are. Here they play a bottom 6 forward role and bottom pairing D role. Imagine if they were a top talent like a Makar. It would mean you could have better players deeper into your line up. So having ELCs competing high up in your roster make you very competitive.

 

Anyway, the point is…. I could say this is the roster I want, but to actually go out and make it happen is near impossible in this exact way. So percentages mixed over several contracts are an easier way to achieve your line up. Roles might be swapped around as well. The balance is what you are looking for. Not too many large contracts and not too few - because you always need game breakers. Don’t skimp on defence. Don’t skimp on offence.

 

The GMs job is a juggling act or like running with a glass of water. Always adjusting to new variables. More defence, more grit, more goals, better PK or PP. It’s a salary cap world. The best way to make a team is to hope you draft well, pay the players according to their expected potential over the life of the contract, map out these contracts, constantly evaluate and adjust the team based on strengthening its weaknesses and avoiding contract blunders. You need a good idea where the cap is going and how to make your adjustments (trades, contract terms etc) all the while staying under the cap.

 

For Montreal now, the best chance of success is to draft top 5, and try to give yourself options for a 2C because Dach/Newhook aren’t cutting it at the moment. Then fix your RHD issues. Draft a RHD and maybe trade for one for insurance in case Reinbacher/Mailloux are not the guys. We have some great pieces we drafted the last few years in Demidov, Hage, Fowler… we have great pieces in Laval…. It’s just a matter of fitting them under the cap… which will get very hard starting in 2028-29 (if we draft in top 5 in 2025) and continuing for quite some time if the prospects evolve as they should.

 

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6 hours ago, Butterface said:

[...]

On paper it is a solid looking team.

[...]

 

exactly. On paper, anyone can put together a team. I think this forum had a fantasy league where you would put together a team and see who had more points at the end.

 

Using my spreadsheet, I had become pretty good at predicting Begevin's moves. I cannot figure out HughGort. IMHO, they seem to have picked their core and rewarded them with nice fat contracts much like Edmonton and Toronto did some years ago. We will see if they do the same with the defensemen in the next few years.

 

I would have been a tougher contract negotiator. To keep options open in case an elite player becomes available.

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On 12/17/2024 at 9:38 AM, alfredoh2009 said:

IMHO, they seem to have picked their core and rewarded them with nice fat contracts much like Edmonton and Toronto did some years ago. We will see if they do the same with the defensemen in the next few years.

 


They aren’t as “fat” as Toronto and Edmonton, which I commend Hughes for.

 

I think you have to find your core early. Ladder out the expires so you don’t have to negotiate several at once. Lay these contracts out with some expectation of the future salary cap. Find where you will have cap spend issues and plan ahead for them.

 

I put the draft picks for 2025 and 2026 on the spreadsheet and some of the Laval players. These are where a majority of your future comes from. So there needs to be an expectation for their use and payouts. Also in the Case of Davidson and Tuch… we may not have a spot for them so knowing they could be moved or not re-upped is worth noting.

 

For me if I look at the spreadsheet, I can see Hughes will have some big decisions to make in the next few years with the talent coming. He also has some Cup window pressure as the first of our core 4 come out of their contracts in 2029-30. He will have wanted to commit to at least two cup attempts before then, 2028-29 and 2029-30.

 

He will have had to make big decisions on his cap issues in 2028-29 (more especially if he drafts low in 2025 and that player burns through an ELC a year earlier which I have already added to spreadsheet but will change to reflect real world as early as June). He will need to make decisions on how to handle Dach and Laine soon.

 

I don’t know what he will do with Gallagher… he has some life still. I expect it will just be time to move on from him.

 

If we come out of the 2025 and 2026 drafts (after trading Matheson, Savard, Evans, Armia, Dvorak, Anderson, Gally, Barron, Struble, maybe Dach, maybe Newhook, maybe Tuch, maybe Davidson) we will have a boat load of assets to attempt playoff runs. We can trade our first round picks in 2028, 2029 and 2030 to get rental talent for those playoff runs and also be moving out players that we can’t keep due to cap restraints…we will receive assets for them (preferably picks).

 

Then we have to decide on what we are doing with Suzuki 2030 and then Caufield 2031 based on how Demidov, Reinbacher, Hage and our 5th overall in 2025 are doing.

 

If you double click on spreadsheet below and see the second row under 2028-29… that could be where we could be paying out a Hagens or Martone or Misa as early as. I’ve already penciled in a big number. Which can be adjusted as often as we like throughout his development. But at least we know it’s coming.

 

If you go lower in the spreadsheet based on the assets we have now, we will need one more player for our 23 man roster and we will already be over the projected cap by $4.579M.

 

(I have since readjusted some salaries based on help I received from dlbalr and the 4.5M over projected cap is dropping to only 1.6M over projected cap with one contract to add.. I’ll update the spreadsheet a bit later..)

 

 

photo-output.jpeg

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Based on that, I used to track prospect's development, having in-mind their probability of making it to the NHL based on their draft range.

I also would track the ELC target date by when they should be signed. Also, I added young players and like Dach and Newhook to compare to the Habs' own draft picks and see how they were tracking. I will show you the first tow years.

 

For me, with regards to prospects, if they sign an Entry-Level-Contract and become regulars: I interpret that as a successful draft. From there-on, it is up to the NHL coaching staff.

image.png

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27 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I use this chart to project prospects:

image.png


Yeah, that’s why I would only put future first round picks on my spreadsheet.

 

Too much of a crap shoot.

 

Until Reinbacher puts on skates, he will make me nervous. But I still have to account for him for the next several years, until I don’t. Reinbacher is like Schrödinger’s Cat on my spreadsheet. He remains alive and I have an expected contract for now.

 

Really it’s the same for all these projected contracts. I assume the Player is alive inside Schrödinger’s box and progressing as expected until the box is opened and they aren’t. Then I lower the future values on their projected contracts. 

 

(I guess it’s not a perfect analogy because I don’t have the player both progressing well and not well at the same time… but it’s close enough. I’m accounting for him on the high side so I know when future cap issues may happen.)

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14 minutes ago, Butterface said:


Yeah, that’s why I would only put future first round picks on my spreadsheet.

 

Too much of a crap shoot.

 

Until Reinbacher puts on skates, he will make me nervous. But I still have to account for him for the next several years, until I don’t. Reinbacher is like Schrödinger’s Cat on my spreadsheet. He remains alive and I have an expected contract for now.

 

Really it’s the same for all these projected contracts. I assume the Player is alive inside Schrödinger’s box and progressing as expected until the box is opened and they aren’t. Then I lower the future values on their projected contracts. 

 

 

 

I put a lot more value in having a strong development program in LAVAL than most on this forum. I honestly believe that developing a winning attitude while getting stringer and gaining experience in the AHL is the recipe for sustained success for any franchise.

That is why I am far more interested in watching The Rocket games than the NHL at this moment. More rewarding for the limited time I have to invest in following the Habs.

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1 minute ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

I put a lot more value in having a strong development program in LAVAL than most on this forum. I honestly believe that developing a winning attitude while getting stringer and gaining experience in the AHL is the recipe for sustained success for any franchise.

That is why I am far more interested in watching The Rocket games than the NHL at this moment. More rewarding for the limited time I have to invest in following the Habs.


I don’t watch Laval. I’m not in Quebec. I read a lot of Habs news from the net. I have a general idea of Laval players through reading. No idea of players outside of Laval. Although I kind of follow the stats/clips of Demidov, Hage and Fowler. I’ll watch the world juniors religiously, but that’s it other than the NHL. I don’t miss many Habs games if I’m in Canada. I do make it a point to follow each of Hughes’ transactions small to big. I might know a lot about the next draft class for our first pick, but after that I would only look up a player after we pick them.

 

I like watching the games and seeing the progression of the talent. I like predicting roster moves. I like putting a team together under the cap. I don’t care too much about line combinations or how we deploy the penalty kill… 

 

If I see an article saying we should trade for Zibanejab… I freak out. It makes me just as frustrated as getting scored on in the playoffs. Hate these stupid ideas from the media.

 

I agree development is important..

 

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I agree with Nilan.

 

We have some big guys but they aren’t intimidating. I keep wanting Anderson to play bigger and meaner, but just as I think he is starting, he fades out again.

 

It is not a worry at the moment but could be for a playoff run. You’ll need to wear down teams with strength of will, just as much as you need to dazzle them with skill.

 

Florian Xhehaj might be this type of player in a couple of years. His timing is good on the depth chart. There could be a spot for him in 2027-28.

 

https://awinninghabit.com/chris-nilan-believes-the-habs-need-more-grit-in-the-lineup

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1 hour ago, Butterface said:

I agree with Nilan.

 

We have some big guys but they aren’t intimidating. I keep wanting Anderson to play bigger and meaner, but just as I think he is starting, he fades out again.

 

It is not a worry at the moment but could be for a playoff run. You’ll need to wear down teams with strength of will, just as much as you need to dazzle them with skill.

 

Florian Xhehaj might be this type of player in a couple of years. His timing is good on the depth chart. There could be a spot for him in 2027-28.

 

https://awinninghabit.com/chris-nilan-believes-the-habs-need-more-grit-in-the-lineup

 

Truculent guy wants more truculence. It's so cyclical. When skill isn't working, we need more grit. When we have too many grinders, we need more skill. Rinse/repeat. Now we're back on the "guys who get you to the playoffs, then the guys that get you through the playoffs" mantra we heard so often from Bergevin. You need depth, balance, and a goalie that can stop a beach ball more often than not. 

 

Who was intimidating when the Avs won the Cup in '22? Or Tampa in their (almost) three-peat years? 

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57 minutes ago, huzer said:

Who was intimidating when the Avs won the Cup in '22? Or Tampa in their (almost) three-peat years? 


Tampa:  Maroon, Colemn,  Goodrow… Coleman was not as big as the other two but had no issue going into scrums. They may not have been fighters but they brought hit and grit. They did not back down and made Tampa hard to play against.


Colorado certainly less so…. But still you had Nichushkin big guy who for the playoffs played to his size. Helm was hard to play against. Cogliano and Landeskog also were happy to get into scrums. But yes.. they were a more skilled team with speed.

 

It isn’t all about fighting, but certainly intimidation and war of will does come into play.  It’s about compete and making it uncomfortable for the other team to want to compete. Hitting in a seven game series is a war of attrition. The first four games leads to results in the last three.

 

Lots of GMs have realized that 4 lines of speed and skill doesn’t always navigate you through the playoffs. Look at the line ups. It doesn’t even get you through the Olympics or the 4 Nations.

 

I say it all the time.. Anderson and Armia play small. They don’t have the right to play small. Caufield and Hutson produce. Those guys don’t. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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When Anderson drives the net, or Armia is dominating on the boards (aka when both are playing their best) that's not playing small

 

Thats what they need to do. 

 

But I disagree with the argument that they are always playing small.... we might want them to be more consistently doing the things they do best, but that's a different issue. 

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On 12/17/2024 at 1:26 PM, alfredoh2009 said:

Based on that, I used to track prospect's development, having in-mind their probability of making it to the NHL based on their draft range.

I also would track the ELC target date by when they should be signed. Also, I added young players and like Dach and Newhook to compare to the Habs' own draft picks and see how they were tracking. I will show you the first tow years.

 

For me, with regards to prospects, if they sign an Entry-Level-Contract and become regulars: I interpret that as a successful draft. From there-on, it is up to the NHL coaching staff.

image.png


This seems like a lot of work. I just ignore all of this until they arrive… unless we picked them in the Top 5.. or I have a sudden interest to google them… 

 

You have a lot of patience to do the work above. But if you enjoy doing it, that’s all that matters.


I think you can say Heineman is an NHLer now. He's here to stay. Light him up neon green.

 

My biggest issues are projecting future contracts … both in term and in dollars. This will never be easy because you are guessing how a players production will evolve. 

 

I wonder if the “pro” version of  https://evolving-hockey.com/subscribe/  does this kind of thing.

 

Also projecting the cap. It is important to get close to the actual number.

 

So if my cap guesstimates are off along with my player projected contracts, it can throw things out of whack quickly. The further out you project, the worse the gap between fantasy and reality will be.

 

So if on top of that, if I started doing the tracking of prospects like you’re doing, I might lose my mind.

 

I find it hard not wondering, after a night like tonight, what the heck kind of term and dollars Laine might get the year after next. More games like this and 10M might look cheap. Need a bigger sample size before moving off of 10M though.

 

His accuracy and velocity is mind numbing. 

 

 

 

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Here is the sheet going out to 2030-31

 

Again, as you get further out numbers are more fantasy and less reality.

 

What is real are the players…. Except if there are trades 😆

 

Anyway.. as you can see I guessed Suzuki’s new salary at 11.3M 

This is slightly higher than his 9.55% of cap when he last signed. (That would have been 10.525M)

 

Next bigger contracts I guessed were Fowler and Hage.

 

After that I guesstimated a smattering of smaller contracts.

 

Since we are tight against the cap or over the cap, I am building in some cheaper contracts for a fourth line with Florian Xhekaj and Thorpe who come out of their ELCs at opportune times unlike Tuch and Davidson did.

 

Laine we can keep until 2030-31, but we lose Dach and likely Newhook along the way.

 

I realize after reading the Dach article below where they compare his struggles to MacKinnon’s struggles, we could have a tense argument deciding between Dach and other big core forwards. But for now, I am good sliding him out of the conversation.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/canadiens-dach-facing-hard-truths-working-to-grow-through-adversity/


One big question mark is the first round pick in the 2025 draft. If it drops out of the top 5…obviously that ELC expiration will push out one year and the money will drop as the draft pick goes from 5th to 7th or 8th etc. At some point it may  also change from being a forward to being a RHD — if we keep winning to our detriment..

 

Fowler will have gone through his ELC and a “show me” contract at 2030-31. If he is going well, it would be the time we move on from Montembeault and find a Jake Allen type back-up.

 

So yes, there is a whole heck of a lot of fantasy when going this far out, but you can see where our cap dilemmas are. I suspect we will also have gone through some TDLs and we might have lost/gained players in 2027-28, 29, 30 to bolster our line up and compete for a cup before our big 4 core original guys come out of their contracts.

 

Anyway.. there it is below.. double tap so you can read it… suggest revisions. Happy to hear suggestions. 

 

No point in telling me it’s a lot of fantasy.. I know.. but it’s based in reality and like I said.. there has to be something similar at head office that is more accurate and more advanced.

 

 

 

 

IMG_3809.jpeg

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50 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

You have more work to do with Carrier on the team now. 


I erased the sheet in the above post and put in new sheet with Carrier in and Barron out … also cut Struble off by two years… I think this changes things. He and Engstrom can battle it out over next season or two and see who wins.

 

Guesstimated Carriers contract as well two years out..

 

So just re-look at above sheet.

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Regardless I think we still draft a RHD in 2025.

 

I also wonder if drafting another goalie is in the cards… what is our depth in goal?

 

If everybody is off the farm next year, what is our situation ? FOWLER AND WHO ?

 

I believe we have another NCAA goalie other than Fowler… anything else that could be in Laval ?


Also we now have about 4.5 million left to sign a player before eating into LTIR next year.

 

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https://thehockeynews.com/news/2025-nhl-draft-rankings-ferraris-top-64-before-the-world-juniors
 

vs.


https://www.eliteprospects.com/ranking-portal/6e9e8cd5-bcfe-4fc7-8943-88a392cafbfd/2025-nhl-draft-ranking


vs.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/sportsnets-2025-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-november-edition/

 

There are big differences month to month and scout to scout.

 

Hensler is 33rd on Ferrari’s in December. He was 13th on SPORTSNET in November…and 8th whenever that Eliteprospects list was made. I only noticed because he was a RHD.

 

Commandant, where do I find best list ? Is it yours ? 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Butterface said:

https://thehockeynews.com/news/2025-nhl-draft-rankings-ferraris-top-64-before-the-world-juniors
 

vs.


https://www.eliteprospects.com/ranking-portal/6e9e8cd5-bcfe-4fc7-8943-88a392cafbfd/2025-nhl-draft-ranking


vs.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/sportsnets-2025-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-november-edition/

 

There are big differences month to month and scout to scout.

 

Hensler is 33rd on Ferrari’s in December. He was 13th on SPORTSNET in November…and 8th whenever that Eliteprospects list was made. I only noticed because he was a RHD.

 

Commandant, where do I find best list ? Is it yours ? 

 

 

 

 

Typically Bob McKenzie's list has been best at predicting where players will be taken.

 

Mine likely wont be updated til after World Juniors.

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