Big Picture Ideas, Questions and Predictions Based on Cap Management, Team Construction and the Theory of Everything

[Butterface]

Was Laine brought to the team by Hughes because:

 

1) Hughes wants to work Laine into the core ?
2) Hughes could get Laine for practically nothing and flip him for another big asset TDL 2026 ?
3) Hughes wanted Laine’s career and health to improve and had no ulterior motives ?

4) Hughes took a chance. All options are on the table.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

A potential star fell in Hughes’ lap. 
 

If Laine busts then goodbye in two seasons. 
 

If Laine succeeds AND enjoys playing here then we get a star player for long term - And this would be incredible. 
 

Hughes gambled and the only cost of the gamble was two years of cap space. 
 

We might have won the lottery here with little risk - Great job Hughes

[Commandant]

4.

 

He took a chance.

 

He had the cap space to do it and the need and the cost and prospects wasnt much.

 

Once you have him, you have two seasons to see how he does and if you want to make a long term commitment or trade him at deadline 2026.

 

Its not a bad thing to make a move and say i have options down the road.

 

Like i said yesterday.  You dont lock into one plan cause one injury or unexpected player busting, or whatever screws up that plan.  You leave yourself space and options and flexibility.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

I think the 2 replies above pretty much nail it. 

[Butterface]

My theory is it began as 2.

 

Hughes must have known trying to keep Laine would mean Salary Cap gymnastics as you move along a logical progression of prospect talent coming to the end of their ELCs alongside an already under-contract core of Caufield, Guhle, Suzuki and Slafkovsky.

 

I could see Hughes flip out Slafkovsky from core for Laine if Slafkovsky doesn’t grow into his contract. We will know that is a possibility if we start to talk about extending Laine. There is 1 3/4 of a season to decide to trade Dach, sign Laine and then another year after to see if Slafkovsky is performing.

 

Big contracts the size of Laine and Slafkovsky are moved in summers. Trading out a six year age gap between Laine and Slafkovsky (20-26) will apply pressure to win quicker and squeeze down our Cup window. Not sure that is a great option.

 

Every thought I come to says that Laine will be traded at TDL 2026 with Montreal retaining 50% salary to get as much as we can for him.

 

We need the depth and youth of Dach and Slafkovsky over a Laine. I don’t think Hughes will gamble adding Laine to the core. I’m pretty sure management will want to see Dach play a full year next year before making any decisions on his future. 

 

So enjoy Laine over the next two years. I doubt we will keep him.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

20 minutes ago, Butterface said:

My theory is it began as 2.

 

Hughes must have known trying to keep Laine would mean Salary Cap gymnastics as you move along a logical progression of prospect talent coming to the end of their ELCs alongside an already under-contract core of Caufield, Guhle, Suzuki and Slafkovsky.

 

I could see Hughes flip out Slafkovsky from core for Laine if Slafkovsky doesn’t grow into his contract. We will know that is a possibility if we start to talk about extending Laine. There is 1 3/4 of a season to decide to trade Dach, sign Laine and then another year after to see if Slafkovsky is performing.

 

Big contracts the size of Laine and Slafkovsky are moved in summers. Trading out a six year age gap between Laine and Slafkovsky (20-26) will apply pressure to win quicker and squeeze down our Cup window. Not sure that is a great option.

 

Every thought I come to says that Laine will be traded at TDL 2026 with Montreal retaining 50% salary to get as much as we can for him.

 

We need the depth and youth of Dach and Slafkovsky over a Laine. I don’t think Hughes will gamble adding Laine to the core. I’m pretty sure management will want to see Dach play a full year next year before making any decisions on his future. 

 

So enjoy Laine over the next two years. I doubt we will keep him.

Be patient with Slafkovsky it took Lafreniere some time to get it together 

[Butterface]

11 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Be patient with Slafkovsky it took Lafreniere some time to get it together 

My point is Hughes traded for the second reason. We all thought Slaf would be killing it in his third season… he’s not and that opens a potential change, but I really expect Slaf to do better and I have no expectations Laine will be anything more than a very good flip.

 

Hughes is doing great. Harris for a second and whatever Laine can get us.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

35 minutes ago, Butterface said:

Every thought I come to says that Laine will be traded at TDL 2026 with Montreal retaining 50% salary to get as much as we can for him.

 

 

It's certainly possible that will happen. I think it will come down to whether or not Montreal is fighting for a playoff spot. If they are then it will be very difficult for Hughes to trade Laine and send a message to the guys that he is not supporting them in a playoff run after missing the playoffs for a number of years. 

[Commandant]

He just signed Slaf to an 8 year contract at the same time he was trading for Laine.  Doubt the thought was to choose one or the other, more likely he wants both.

[dlbalr]

The closest would be #4 but I think it was more a case of his Plans A, B, and C (Kane, Marchessault, and I'm guessing a failed trade) fell through in terms of getting a player on an above-market but shorter-term contract so he pivoted and did this one instead.

[Butterface]

Thanks guys.

 

Struble getting an Xhekaj type deal ? 1.3 ? 2 years ?

Heineman getting something longer ?  More money… 

 

I see Heineman as a secondary core player. A player who revolves around the higher paid elite core. May get squeezed out eventually due to cap space and replaced by somebody like him coming out of an ELC.

 

Fair ? 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

13 hours ago, Butterface said:

Thanks guys.

 

Struble getting an Xhekaj type deal ? 1.3 ? 2 years ?

Heineman getting something longer ?  More money… 

 

I see Heineman as a secondary core player. A player who revolves around the higher paid elite core. May get squeezed out eventually due to cap space and replaced by somebody like him coming out of an ELC.

 

Fair ? 

 

Agree on Struble and on Heineman, except for the speculation that he’ll get squeezed out. I mean, that could happen. But IF he is a reliable ‘secondary core’ guy then you try to keep him, provided he wants to stay and has reasonable demands.

[Butterface]

You see the squeeze out all the time. Team success leads to bigger contracts. Guys want to test the free agent market because the team can’t fit them into their cap budget. Think of all the players that left a team like Tampa Bay as they had lots of playoff success and cups. They used depth and trades to fill in holes. They brought in core Guentzel to replace core Stamkos now. They traded out core Sergachev. They have a core of Kutcherov, Point, Guentzel, Hedman, McDonagh, Cirelli and Vasilevskiy. Gone are the secondary core of Kilorn, Gourde, Johnson, Goodrow, Palat and Coleman.

 

Sure some of the issues for them was the Salary Cap was stagnant.

 

I’m going to assume this won’t be the case going forward.

 

For my purposes I have a salary cap that is growing at a consistent pace.

 

2024-25 $88

2025-26 $92.5

2026-27 $95-96

2027-28 $97-100

2028-29 $99.5-104

2029-30 $102-108.5

2030-31 $105-113

2031-32 $108-118

2032-33 $111-123

2033-34 $114-128.5

 

I am trying guesstimate it as best I can. Does anyone have a definitive go-to chart or expert for how the growth of the salary cap might go ?

 

Are these expectations reasonable ?

 

Thinking I’d split the difference in future guesstimates (28-29 and after)… reasonable ?
 

[dlbalr]

12 minutes ago, Butterface said:

For my purposes I have a salary cap that is growing at a consistent pace.

 

2024-25 $88

2025-26 $92.5

2026-27 $95-96

2027-28 $97-100

2028-29 $99.5-104

2029-30 $102-108.5

2030-31 $105-113

2031-32 $108-118

2032-33 $111-123

2033-34 $114-128.5

 

I am trying guesstimate it as best I can. Does anyone have a definitive go-to chart or expert for how the growth of the salary cap might go ?

 

Are these expectations reasonable ?

 

Thinking I’d split the difference in future guesstimates … reasonable or is this too much of a crapshoot after say 2028-29 ?

 

You're probably looking at two more CBAs in that stretch which could greatly change the cap environment.  (Does the 50/50 percentage change, do escrow rules changed, is HRR redefined, etc.)  A lot of people think there's going to be a big spike for 26-27 which is the start of the next CBA, one that might pull or increase the maximum percentage increase (currently capped at 5%), or change or eliminate the lag formula that is in place (covering HRR over multiple years and using that as the baseline for HRR to base the 50/50 split off of. 

 

Accordingly, there is no go-to chart or expert here to go to.  There are too many variables at play for teams to project out quite that far.  Even trying to project 28-29's cap now would be tough.

[GHT120]

22 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

You're probably looking at two more CBAs in that stretch which could greatly change the cap environment.  (Does the 50/50 percentage change, do escrow rules changed, is HRR redefined, etc.)  A lot of people think there's going to be a big spike for 26-27 which is the start of the next CBA, one that might pull or increase the maximum percentage increase (currently capped at 5%), or change or eliminate the lag formula that is in place (covering HRR over multiple years and using that as the baseline for HRR to base the 50/50 split off of. 

 

Accordingly, there is no go-to chart or expert here to go to.  There are too many variables at play for teams to project out quite that far.  Even trying to project 28-29's cap now would be tough.

There is also the Sportsnet contract expiring after next season ... given the reported losses on the last deal (I never fully trust corporate accounting) will Sportsnet or TSN even match the last Canadian deal ... will Prime want to expand their involvement in NHL broadcasting beyond Monday nights ... will Disney want to add the Canadian market ... Netflix has just stolen WWE from Sportsnet, do they want to expand their sports offerings?

 

And then the "Disney deal" expires after 27-28.

 

Those will have a big impact on HRR, whether or not it is redefined. 

[Butterface]

51 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

You're probably looking at two more CBAs in that stretch which could greatly change the cap environment.  (Does the 50/50 percentage change, do escrow rules changed, is HRR redefined, etc.)  A lot of people think there's going to be a big spike for 26-27 which is the start of the next CBA, one that might pull or increase the maximum percentage increase (currently capped at 5%), or change or eliminate the lag formula that is in place (covering HRR over multiple years and using that as the baseline for HRR to base the 50/50 split off of. 

 

Accordingly, there is no go-to chart or expert here to go to.  There are too many variables at play for teams to project out quite that far.  Even trying to project 28-29's cap now would be tough.

Thanks for the info.

 

I definitely know this is a very tough thing to predict. Logic based on how the Salary Cap progresses becomes fantasy quickly. That’s understandably why most of you get sick when I try to guess the future. However, I assume somebody in Habs management is doing their level best to guesstimate as well. I’ll continue down this rabbit hole looking at info you guys might think is worth thinking about. No question I will be wrong…. But close is good enough for now.

[Butterface]

57 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

There is also the Sportsnet contract expiring after next season ... given the reported losses on the last deal (I never fully trust corporate accounting) will Sportsnet or TSN even match the last Canadian deal ... will Prime want to expand their involvement in NHL broadcasting beyond Monday nights ... will Disney want to add the Canadian market ... Netflix has just stolen WWE from Sportsnet, do they want to expand their sports offerings?

 

And then the "Disney deal" expires after 27-28.

 

Those will have a big impact on HRR, whether or not it is redefined. 

Thank you

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

2 minutes ago, Butterface said:

I definitely know this is a very tough thing to predict. Logic based on how the Salary Cap progresses becomes fantasy quickly. That’s understandably why most of you get sick when I try to guess the future. However, I assume somebody in Habs management is doing their level best to guesstimate as well. I’ll continue down this rabbit hole looking at info you guys might think is worth thinking about. No question I will be wrong…. But close is good enough for now.

 

It is tough to predict, it was a good idea to set up a separate thread for this. 

[Butterface]

Very sketchy logic I am going to assume here…

 

Rangers just predicted the salary cap future.

 

You can see on October 21st on here I predicted Shersterkin SHOULD receive an 8 year contract valued at 10.65 million based on my guesstimated prediction of future salary cap growth. I assumed Sherterkin is a top goalie in the NHL, rightly or wrongly, and as such he should be paid at the maximum you should pay a goalie - 10% of the Cap.

 

The Rangers just paid him 11.5 million. Meaning they think the cap will grow more than my 8 year prediction below. 
 

This make any sense to you guys ? Sketchy, but plausible.

[Commandant]

Maybe the Rangers don't disagree with you on cap, so much as they disagree with this.... 

"and as such he should be paid at the maximum you should pay a goalie - 10% of the Cap."

 

Not sure where 10% came from, since that is less than what was paid to Lundqvist, Price and Bobrovsky when they signed their contracts. 

 

[Butterface]

14 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Maybe the Rangers don't disagree with you on cap, so much as they disagree with this.... 

"and as such he should be paid at the maximum you should pay a goalie - 10% of the Cap."

 

Not sure where 10% came from, since that is less than what was paid to Lundqvist, Price and Bobrovsky when they signed their contracts. 

 

Not sure about Lundqvist… because I was not paying attention to the Rangers Cap much…..but I can tell you I knew about Bobrovsky’s contract and was shocked by it. Price, though I love him, also was given way too much.

 

I base 10% as a top because historically it’s been 6-8%. Am I wrong ? I think Shesterkin was trying to push those percentages up. Not many goalies have gotten where Price, Bobrovsky and I guess Lundqvist had gotten. Took a while for a goalie to break Price’s number.

 

Can you offer some better guidance on goalie salaries as a percentage of cap or Cap growth ? Need thoughts that can get to a reasonable consensus on Cap growth. 

[Commandant]

3 minutes ago, Butterface said:

Not sure about Lundqvist… because I was not paying attention to the Rangers Cap much…..but I can tell you I knew about Bobrovsky’s contract and was shocked by it. Price, though I love him, also was given way too much.

 

I base 10% as a top because historically it’s been 6-8%. Am I wrong ? I think Shesterkin was trying to push those percentages up. Not many goalies have gotten where Price, Bobrovsky and I guess Lundqvist had gotten. Took a while for a goalie to break Price’s number.

 

Can you offer some better guidance on goalie salaries as a percentage of cap or Cap growth ? Need thoughts that can get to a reasonable consensus on Cap growth. 

 

You can do the research as to what the cap was when they signed... but given that Price and Bob got 10.5 million AAV and the cap wasnt 105 million (and still isnt)... its quite clear that both of those deals are more than 10% of the cap.

 

 

[Butterface]

Those three contracts are outliers is what I’m thinking. Definitely more than 10% at the time. All very good goalies. The best. Two never won cups. Was it because they commanded too much of the cap space ? (No need to answer)  Took a while for the Bobrovsky contract to come into line before he won. 

 

Most don’t get over 10%. Swayman and Ullmark etc. 

 

My point is… are my cap expectations too low, too high or just about right if we assume that Shersterkin is a 10% goalie and therefore  the cap is going to be around the numbers I am suggesting going forward.

 

i want to justify the cap I’m going to assume.

[Commandant]

2 hours ago, Butterface said:

Those three contracts are outliers is what I’m thinking. Definitely more than 10% at the time. All very good goalies. The best. Two never won cups. Was it because they commanded too much of the cap space ? (No need to answer)  Took a while for the Bobrovsky contract to come into line before he won. 

 

Most don’t get over 10%. Swayman and Ullmark etc. 

 

My point is… are my cap expectations too low, too high or just about right if we assume that Shersterkin is a 10% goalie and therefore  the cap is going to be around the numbers I am suggesting going forward.

 

i want to justify the cap I’m going to assume.

 

Shesterkin is the best goalie in the league right now.  Hes the same outlier today that Hank and Price were.

 

Hank and Price both got to the cup final with their contracts and Bob got to one and won one.  The contracts didn't hold the team back and Price probably wins if Bergevin ever got the team a number 1 centre (a move that was never prevented by Price's money)

 

 

[GHT120]

2 hours ago, Butterface said:

Those three contracts are outliers is what I’m thinking. Definitely more than 10% at the time. All very good goalies. The best. Two never won cups. Was it because they commanded too much of the cap space ? (No need to answer)  Took a while for the Bobrovsky contract to come into line before he won. 

 

Most don’t get over 10%. Swayman and Ullmark etc. 

 

My point is… are my cap expectations too low, too high or just about right if we assume that Shersterkin is a 10% goalie and therefore  the cap is going to be around the numbers I am suggesting going forward.

 

i want to justify the cap I’m going to assume.

Price's $10.5M AAV was 13.2% of the cap the first of the contract (14% of the cap when he extended a year early) ... Lundqvist's $8.5M was also 13.2% in the first year of his deal ... Bobrovsky was 12.3% of the cap his first season ... so 10% seems uber-reasonable for the NHL's best goalie