Big Picture Ideas, Questions and Predictions Based on Cap Management, Team Construction and the Theory of Everything

[Butterface]

 

10 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

Typically Bob McKenzie's list has been best at predicting where players will be taken.

 

Mine likely wont be updated til after World Juniors.

Thanks… I’ll look for Bob’s and yours …

 

Do you post yours or is it a subscription type thing ?

[Butterface]

I think everybody saw the RHD short term issue wondering how we would bridge the wait for Reinbacher and Mailloux.

 

We saw Barron as an obvious spot to upgrade.

 

I expected it to be dealt with, but not as quickly as this. Thought we’d test the waters without Savard after the TDL and see.

 

(in my mind playing Primeau more with a weak right side could have got us a prime draft pick like Martone)

 

I guess management wanted a more proactive approach… but sadly, not sucking as much might push us up the standings… not drafting high in 2025 gives us less options in 2028-2032 for reshuffling the core younger.

 

I guess we will see.

 

In the mean time we have an upgrade at RHD… it is no longer as big a potential sore spot… at least until we trade Savard. Then it will be less of a sore spot than had we kept Barron.

 

Good trade for now.

 

 

[Butterface]

On 12/17/2024 at 12:48 PM, Butterface said:

 

If we come out of the 2025 and 2026 drafts (after trading Matheson, Savard, Evans, Armia, Dvorak, Anderson, Gally, Barron, Struble, maybe Dach, maybe Newhook, maybe Tuch, maybe Davidson) we will have a boat load of assets to attempt playoff runs. We can trade our first round picks in 2028, 2029 and 2030 to get rental talent for those playoff runs and also be moving out players that we can’t keep due to cap restraints…we will receive assets for them (preferably picks).

1 down, 12 to go.

 

[Commandant]

8 hours ago, Butterface said:

 

Thanks… I’ll look for Bob’s and yours …

 

Do you post yours or is it a subscription type thing ?

 

All our stuff is free.  Of course we have some ads on the page which is how we pay for it all.

 

Lastwordonsports.com 

[Butterface]

Article here saying we should not be quick to trade Dach.

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/canadiens-face-drastically-different-situation-with-dach-than-barron/

 

I agree. I’m inclined to give him until the end of the 2027-28 season. 
 

I think we can at least fit him under the cap until then and it should give plenty of time to see if he can be the guy.

 

It also gives Hage or (I’m hoping) a top 5 2025 draft pick time to take over the 2C so Dach could be expendable due to cap concerns.

 

 

[Butterface]

Untouchables in Canadiens line up…

 

https://awinninghabit.com/tony-marinaro-shares-his-three-montreal-canadiens-untouchables

 

I’d have to agree on two… Demidov and Hutson.

 

Obviously Hughes did not want to give up on Fowler in the Askarov trade.. so Hughes has Fowler on his list.
 

Looking at the rest of the players who most likely make up peoples’ lists beyond Demidov and Hutson are in no particular order…. 
 

Caufield, Suzuki, Guhle, Slafkovsky, Laine, Reinbacher, Fowler, Montembeault, maybe Hage, maybe Beck, maybe Heineman, maybe Mailloux…. maybe our top 5 pick 2025😬

So if I’m starting an NHL team tomorrow and had to pick 3 Forwards, 2 Dmen and a goalie from this list…

 

Demidov, Suzuki, Beck, Hutson, Reinbacher (gamble), Fowler. 2 centres cause they are hard to find and I like Beck (Hage would have been a close second). Reinbacher for balance. Fowler because I’m holding out for him to be exceptional… part of it was because he punched a guy with his blocker because he was losing. He cares. Beck I like for his compete level too.

 

Laine and Caufield are hard to leave off because, in a word, goals. But I’d rather shore up centre spots. But what a list to have to choose from… this team is rounding out well.

 

[tomh009]

3 hours ago, Butterface said:

I’d have to agree on two… Demidov and Hutson.

I think it's really, really, really early to anoint Demidov as untouchable. He looks good in KHL video clips but he has yet to play an NHL game. And even Hutson has only played 30-odd games.

 

Fowler is not necessarily untouchable but clearly the trade didn't meet Hughes's criteria.

[Butterface]

35 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

I think it's really, really, really early to anoint Demidov as untouchable. He looks good in KHL video clips but he has yet to play an NHL game. And even Hutson has only played 30-odd games.

 

Fowler is not necessarily untouchable but clearly the trade didn't meet Hughes's criteria.

Ok, so apparently you are not starting your team with Demidov, Hutson and Fowler.

 

Who ya got ?

[Commandant]

There are no untouchables.

 

If colorado offered Cale Makar for Lane Hutson, youd have to take it.  Just as an example.

 

There is no one on our team I consider the best player in the league and untradeable.

 

Of course the price on some is more than others but no one is untouchable 

[Butterface]

22 minutes ago, Commandant said:

There are no untouchables.

 

If colorado offered Cale Makar for Lane Hutson, youd have to take it.  Just as an example.

 

There is no one on our team I consider the best player in the league and untradeable.

 

Of course the price on some is more than others but no one is untouchable 

I see what you did there.

 

Sure if I had a million dollars and was offered a billion dollars for it, I’d do the deal.

 

What I think Marinaro is talking about is when a GM is calling and asking, “who on your roster would you be willing to trade and who is not for sale ?” … he’s not coming to you with a Connor McDavid one for one trade proposal.

 

This is a cold call dangling nothing, but saying, “who is untouchable ?”

 

The quizmaster was always being beaten down by Torts. Never liked the questions.

 

I think you evaded the question… which is fine.

 

For me no one gets Demidov or Hutson. If there was a fire at the rink, those are the first two players I’m carrying out of the building. They’re safe. I could start from scratch with those two and be happy.

 

So who are the 3 forwards, 2 defence and goalie you choose as your beginning core ?

 

 

 

 

[Commandant]

Caufield, Suzuki, Demidov

Hutson, Guhle, and Montembault.

[BCHabnut]

4 hours ago, tomh009 said:

I think it's really, really, really early to anoint Demidov as untouchable. He looks good in KHL video clips but he has yet to play an NHL game. And even Hutson has only played 30-odd games.

 

Fowler is not necessarily untouchable but clearly the trade didn't meet Hughes's criteria.

My thought is, the reason that they are untouchable is you don't know what you have yet.

[Butterface]

3 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

My thought is, the reason that they are untouchable is you don't know what you have yet.

Yes… maybe… or you think what they could become is so good, you can’t justify selling them. You lock them away in the wall safe behind an oil painting. If somebody asks you about them you grab them by their arm and throw them out of your office.

[Butterface]

16 hours ago, Commandant said:

Caufield, Suzuki, Demidov

Hutson, Guhle, and Montembault.

Good choices. Less risky than mine.

 

I think there are a number of combos that could work. That shows just how much talent we have.

 

 

[Butterface]

I did not know Demidov could play and likes to play at centre.

 

From Stu Cowan’s Gazette Mailbag:

 

Should the Habs go looking for a legit second-line centre?
 

Not now. I wouldn’t give up on Kirby Dach yet as the possible second-line centre for the future. I think you need to give him a full season after he only played two games last season and had major knee surgery. Also, Demidov can play wing or centre and has said he prefers playing centre. That could give Dach competition for the No. 2 centre spot next season or St. Louis could just move Dach to the wing with Demidov as his centre with either Patrik Laine or Juraj Slafkovsky as the other winger, depending on who is playing on the No. 1 line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.

Read more at: https://www.montrealgazette.com/sports/article633845.html#storylink=cpy

 

So with Hage and Demidov potentially vying for Dach’s spot.. there is less worry we need a 2C early in the 2025 draft, but I’d still like to get one.

 

I think we have a few years to evaluate who will be 2C. I think we can hang on to Dach past the 2025-26 season for a couple more years while we decide. The cap squeeze would begin 2028-29. The cap squeeze will continue for some time after as we have large contracts needing to be extended yearly.

 

Evans is definitely making himself important. As long as we sign Evans to reasonably priced and reasonably termed contract with no huge trade restrictions - like a 24 team no trade clause type thing, I can see Hughes interested until 2028-29….. Mainly because we have the cap room. If Evans’ contract is kept tradable, we can keep him until then and allow Beck and Kapanen to grow into 3C and 4C.

 

We will have Kapanen, Beck, Newhook, Hage, Dach, Suzuki, Demidov and possibly Evans around in the next two years to play centre. (And maybe first pick 2025).

 

We’re deep, baby.

 

https://www.habsworld.net/2016/10/canadiens-waiver-chart/
 

Just putting waiver eligible chart here for referencing at later dates…

 

 

[Butterface]

Here is a habsworld.net piece about the Barron/Carrier trade..

https://www.habsworld.net/2024/12/writers-weigh-in-discussing-the-carrier-barron-trade/

 

I especially like Allan Katz’ take… (no disrespect to dlbalr)

 

“Chris Nilan said it best; This team needs more men and less boys. Barron is a boy, he has talent, size, skating, offensive chops and an incredibly immature defensive game. My guess is in four years he will potentially be a better 200-foot player than the MAN who is replacing him. The Habs have so much defensive depth throughout their organization that it was easy for them to trade the talent who was progressing the slowest.

 

The final seven defencemen who will be carrying Lord Stanley’s Cup in 2028 have not been defined yet. Most speculation involves seeing Carrier as a stopgap replacement for David Savard, but no one really knows. He will be around 32 when the reconstructed team is trying to touch the sun and how he ages might be a factor in deciding his fate.”

 

Katz is onside with my predicted time line… I think we compete in 3 years (2027-28) … and go balls to the walls the following two years. The window is still open after 2029-30, but we might need to retool and re-adjust.

 

Further in the above Barron/Carrier trade breakdown story from habsworld.net, Dave Woodward said something I also feel is true:

 

“Of course, Jayden Struble may be the odd man out of the lineup as a result of this trade, especially with Arber Xhekaj playing much more consistently over the last few weeks.  Barron and Struble seemed to be the sixth and seventh defenceman with Struble playing more often than not.  It will be interesting to see how the Habs manage Struble if they remain healthy as he’s no longer waiver-exempt.”

 

I agree with Woodward, but I think they will let Struble and Engstrom fight it out for however long it takes until there is a winner.

 

I just read this article below:

 

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2024/12/canadiens-jake-evans-havent-discussed-extension.html
 

No extension has been discussed so either that means management weren’t expecting to see this huge leap from Evans and they are thinking hard on the matter as it has changed the landscape… or they have a plan without Evans and they are sticking to it…. Or they are shopping him and are weighing the pros and cons of keeping him… in that case they still need at least a dollar figure and a term from Evans’ camp.

 

In the meantime DON posted this on the Rocket thread:

 

 

 

I don’t know when he will fit in Evans’ skates, but I’m feeling like he will… and more.

 

[Butterface]

Michael Farber and Dom Hasek I guess were not fans of Habs brass going to see Demidov in Russia. I did not have any thoughts on the matter before, but while listening I learned about the Rotenberg family and why others took a negative view of the trip. We get Demidov at the end of May and going to Russia was not going to change that. (Unless of coarse Management thought Demidov was being pulled away from their influence)…

 

From 4:30 until 14:45 Farber talked Russia and MSL. 

 

https://www.tsn.ca/radio/montreal-690/farber-russia-trip-not-a-good-look-for-habs-1.2224922

 

 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

IDGAF what some Russian asshats think. 
 

Rottencrapcoachburg uses bizarre methods and demonstrates that he has no idea what he’s doing. 
 

Demidov will move to Canada next year and he won’t care about those idiots ever again 

[dlbalr]

On 12/22/2024 at 11:09 PM, Butterface said:

Here is a habsworld.net piece about the Barron/Carrier trade..

https://www.habsworld.net/2024/12/writers-weigh-in-discussing-the-carrier-barron-trade/

 

I especially like Allan Katz’ take… (no disrespect to dlbalr)

 

No worries there.  We have lots of good writers on the site, I like seeing some of them get praised for their contributions.

[Butterface]

12 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

No worries there.  We have lots of good writers on the site, I like seeing some of them get praised for their contributions.

Just as I drop that about the media on the other side of the forum 🤣🤣🤣… yes a lot of those writers in that column had some good input. Enjoyed it all.

[Butterface]

4 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Rottencrapcoachburg uses bizarre methods and demonstrates that he has no idea what he’s doing. 

I think Farber was suggesting that Rotenberg got the job because of nepotism or cronyism. He is not necessarily there on merit. 

[Butterface]

I wrote the following on the game #32 sheet. Maybe it’s better if it is here…

 

I wrote it replying to the question of how long will we have Evans and Laine on the same team.

 

I don’t know the actual answer but I guesstimated things by saying:

 

You can keep both Evans and Laine for three more years… the following year you will likely be giving Demidov a raise and will begin having to make bigger choices.

 

During those three years you could begin a solid uptick in points as the prospects gain experience.

 

Certainly we could take a shot at major playoff success in 2027-28 with these two guys still on the team. If we continue to go up in the standings this year, and our 2025  first draft pick falls out of the “elite” range, there is a chance we can keep both Laine and Evans past 2027-28… say until 2030-31 when we renegotiate Suzuki.

 

To do the above we’d lose Dach and Newhook end of 2027-28 season, Carrier (or Mailloux) and Montembeault end of 2028-29 season (and our 2025 first pick would have to come out of his ELC in 2029-30 season and sign for roughly 4 million or less.)

 

Bit confusing to figure out with all the parts.

 

It still means our window opens 2027-28… and we make huge attempts in 2028-29 and 2029-30.

 

All of the above is based on future unknown contract values and unknown NHL salary cap figures.

 

If we don’t sign Evans we are roughly on same trajectory to compete for cups at same times, but with varying casts of characters.

 

PS because this works with multiple assumptions, it could be all @#$#@. Take it will a grain of salt, but it does have some basis in reality. 

 

PPS we could sign him (Evans) and keep him for a couple of years then trade him if we like Dach better and think we can keep him under the cap… the other guys would still have to go.

 

In the above scenario I had us ending Carrier’s services in 2028-29 after a couple of cup tries and moving on with Mailloux instead of Carrier… which sort of answers Katz’s question,

 

”The final seven defencemen who will be carrying Lord Stanley’s Cup in 2028 have not been defined yet. Most speculation involves seeing Carrier as a stopgap replacement for David Savard, but no one really knows. He will be around 32 when the reconstructed team is trying to touch the sun and how he ages might be a factor in deciding his fate.”

 

In the end I don’t think anyone replied to me because it is so far away, takes an enormous amount of assumptions and they would rather just argue defensive pairings for the next game. I don’t blame them.

 

I’ll look like a complete raving idiot in 3-4 years because of all the guesswork.

 

[Butterface]

Anybody got an opinion on this article ?

 

It discusses the signing of Slaf… 

 

https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2024/12/24/why-extending-forward-early-was-the-right-move-for-the-canadiens/

 

In it it states:

 

“Almost three years later, Slafkovsky remains the cornerstone for the rebuild’s success.

If the Canadiens rebuild is to have success, they need the Slafkovksy pick to pan out.”

 

I don’t really think the article made its point to why it was a good idea to sign him early. And I don’t think the article is correct pinning the rebuild success on Slafkovsky is true either. He needs to be good, but he doesn’t need to be great.

 

I do think Hughes and Gorton thought 2024-25 would be a breakout year and signing Slaf early was going to be better dollar-wise in the long run… I don’t fault them for that. The article doesn’t really go on to explain logically why it was good to sign Slaf to this much money or for that long a time.

 

The rebuild success does not hinge on Slafkovsky. I do think Demidov, Fowler, Hutson and Reinbacher will have a lot to say about how our rebuild goes. Slaf has not been a disappointment yet. Hutson looks like he is on his way to great things.

 

So that leaves Reinbacher, Demidov and Fowler being the most crucial factors in our rebuild at the moment. I think our success hinges more on these three then Slaf.

 

I think you could easily argue Demidov is more important than Slaf to how our rebuild is measured.

 

I also think our first round of picks in the 2025 draft will be important to stretching our cup window longer. The 3-8 drafts after 2025 won’t nearly have the same chance of finding pay-dirt for us. They will be middle to late picks in the first round and some will be traded away for TDL help.

 

Demidov we will get a good idea next year. The same goes for Reinbacher.. maybe even this Spring Reinbacher will begin playing and we’ll know more then. Fowler has up to four years of playing behind Montembeault before we need him to be the man.

 

So I think saying Slafkovsky will be the sole determinant of this rebuild being successful is pistachio flavoured poop.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

7 minutes ago, Butterface said:

Anybody got an opinion on this article ?

 

It discusses the signing of Slaf… 

 

https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2024/12/24/why-extending-forward-early-was-the-right-move-for-the-canadiens/

 

In it it states:

 

“Almost three years later, Slafkovsky remains the cornerstone for the rebuild’s success.

If the Canadiens rebuild is to have success, they need the Slafkovksy pick to pan out.”

 

I don’t really think the article made its point to why it was a good idea to sign him early. And I don’t think the article is correct pinning the rebuild success on Slafkovsky is true either. He needs to be good, but he doesn’t need to be great.

 

I do think Hughes and Gorton thought 2024-25 would be a breakout year and signing Slaf early was going to be better dollar-wise in the long run… I don’t fault them for that. The article doesn’t really go on to explain logically why it was good to sign Slaf to this much money or for that long a time.

 

The rebuild success does not hinge on Slafkovsky. I do think Demidov, Fowler, Hutson and Reinbacher will have a lot to say about how our rebuild goes. Slaf has not been a disappointment yet. Hutson looks like he is on his way to great things.

 

So that leaves Reinbacher, Demidov and Fowler being the most crucial factors in our rebuild at the moment. I think our success hinges more on these three then Slaf.

 

I think you could easily argue Demidov is more important than Slaf to how our rebuild is measured.

 

I also think our first round of picks in the 2025 draft will be important to stretching our cup window longer. The 3-8 drafts after 2025 won’t nearly have the same chance of finding pay-dirt for us. They will be middle to late picks in the first round and some will be traded away for TDL help.

 

Demidov we will get a good idea next year. The same goes for Reinbacher.. maybe even this Spring Reinbacher will begin playing and we’ll know more then. Fowler has up to four years of playing behind Montembeault before we need him to be the man.

 

So I think saying Slafkovsky will be the sole determinant of this rebuild being successful is pistachio flavoured poop.

Can you imagine how devastating it would be to Montreal if Slafkovsky busted and if Dach busted too?

 

Rebuild isn’t going to be successful on the back of one player but man can you imagine if they busted out? 
 

The other side of that coin is imagine if both Slafkovsky and Dach hit their potentials…Whooo Boy 

[Butterface]

10 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Can you imagine how devastating it would be to Montreal if Slafkovsky busted and if Dach busted too?

 

Rebuild isn’t going to be successful on the back of one player but man can you imagine if they busted out? 
 

The other side of that coin is imagine if both Slafkovsky and Dach hit their potentials…Whooo Boy 

Although I wish Montreal had first pick the following year, I think our choice of Slaf was decent. Not all draft years are equal and I’ve said since arriving that really our rebuild started when we got Demidov, not Slaf.

 

Slaf will never be a “bust” unless you measure him against other first overall picks. Slaf adds value… just maybe he won’t measure up to first overall expected value. I do like Hughes choice there.