lazy26 Posted July 17, 2010 Share Posted July 17, 2010 Well, what IS market value on a short-term deal for Price? While we're killing time waiting for something to happen, let's throw around some thoughts and comparables. The first comparable that popped into my mind was Cam Ward's second NHL contract. 3 years, $8M, with a cap hit of $2.67M and a RFA status at the end of the 3 years. Ward had worse numbers than Price, but did have a Cup ring and Conn Smythe trophy. I'd be happy if Price signed a similar contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForumGhost Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 (edited) The first comparable that popped into my mind was Cam Ward's second NHL contract. 3 years, $8M, with a cap hit of $2.67M and a RFA status at the end of the 3 years. Ward had worse numbers than Price, but did have a Cup ring and Conn Smythe trophy. I'd be happy if Price signed a similar contract. No way does Price make that much... Ward had accomplished way more while Price hasn't accomplished much on an NHL level and had his job stolen from him. I can't see him making more than 1.5 mil, short term. Edited July 18, 2010 by ForumGhost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 No way does Price make that much... Ward had accomplished way more while Price hasn't accomplished much on an NHL level and had his job stolen from him. I can't see him making more than 1.5 mil, short term. There's no way that Price should make more then around $1.5M, but he'll probably get close to $3M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bar Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 (edited) You don't pay young players what they're worth currently, you pay them what they're going to be worth on further years into the contract. 3 years at 2.5m would be a decent contract. What bugs me is people expect high end performance at low end cost, if you think he deserves 1.5m Habs29...then you wont be disappointed if he delivers 1.5m worth of goaltending? Edited July 18, 2010 by bar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saskhab Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 You don't pay young players what they're worth currently, you pay them what they're going to be worth on further years into the contract. 3 years at 2.5m would be a decent contract. What bugs me is people expect high end performance at low end cost, if you think he deserves 1.5m Habs29...then you wont be disappointed if he delivers 1.5m worth of goaltending? RFA's sign at discounts due to limited options. $1.5m RFA is an expected salary of $2.2m-$2.5m. If they were UFA's, that's what we'd expect them to receive. Which, looking at the goaltending market, would have made him the highest paid UFA goalie this year (Nittymaki got $2m per). It also means Halak is probably expected to be a $4-$4.5m goalie by St. Louis... that one is complex because it is a 4 year deal, 2 years of which were RFA arbitration elgiible years and 2 are UFA years. So signing Price at $1.5m is not like expecting him to equal Travis Moen's impact on the team, even though it's the same salary. We signed Higgins, Plekanec and Komisarek to that kind of money at age 24/25. A little more, but they were 2 year deals (I believe they were $1.6m and $1.7m). They expected Komisarek to be a Top 4 D and Higgins and Plekanec to be top 6 forwards. Same thing here with Price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueKross Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 So signing Price at $1.5m is not like expecting him to equal Travis Moen's impact on the team, even though it's the same salary. We signed Higgins, Plekanec and Komisarek to that kind of money at age 24/25. A little more, but they were 2 year deals (I believe they were $1.6m and $1.7m). They expected Komisarek to be a Top 4 D and Higgins and Plekanec to be top 6 forwards. Same thing here with Price. We can speculate all we want, but the real truth will be realised when the deal is done. We shall soon see how much confidence management has in their "franchise goalie"- their man. This contract will be an inditement or signature of real value. I expect Price will fair pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bar Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 I understand the RFA vs UFA dynamics, but it doesn't change the fact that owners/fans want it both ways, cheap players and high end results, there's something wrong with this thinking. I fully expect Price to play lights out in the NHL with the habs, if the fans can let him, or with another team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 (edited) You don't pay young players what they're worth currently, you pay them what they're going to be worth on further years into the contract. 3 years at 2.5m would be a decent contract. What bugs me is people expect high end performance at low end cost, if you think he deserves 1.5m Habs29...then you wont be disappointed if he delivers 1.5m worth of goaltending? I don't believe in paying a young player a high-end salary for a short-term contract. If Price is only looking for a 2-3 year deal that will take him to his UFA status, then why should we pay him top dollar now when he hasn't proven he can carry the load as a #1??? And i don't consider two half year stints of success as being a proven starting goalie. Everybody knows he has the talent - whether he has the mental make up to succeed IN MONTREAL is a whole different question. If we are going to pay Price top dollar, it should be a longer term deal that goes a couple of years into his UFA years. Otherwise, why pay a guy who has not had a complete SOLID year. IMO, based on his play, his previous salary AND what we have to qualify him for $1.5M should be a fair number if he is only looking for a 1 year deal as reported, around $2M if he is looking for a 2 year deal and around $3.5M if he is willing to sign a 4-5 year deal. I hate the fact that we are going to be impacted by other stupid decisions like the ridiculous Lehtonon deal - a big contract for an injury prone goalie who is getting a contract for his draft position and not for what he has done in the NHL. I have no issue for a guy like Halak or Hillier who have put together a solid season and playoff run getting rewarded, by their willingness to include their UFA year's in their current contract. I do have an issue with rewarding players who have had a good short stints but have not shown a solid season and they still want high dollar value short term deals. It makes no sense to me that the cap numbers that are being thrown out for what NJ and LA are willing to pay Kovulchuk are around $6M and then Mikko Koivu is given a $6.75m contract for 71 points. I think is a Koivu is great player and would love to have on the habs - but not at those numbers. Just like I think it is highway robbery that Gomez is getting paid $7.2M for one good season when for his career he has only demonstrated he is a 60 point guy. It is frustrating that stupid managment decisions by some clubs effect the entire market. Cliff Fletcher paid a ridicilous $3.5M to Jeff friggin Finger and now his idiot son pays $6.75 to Koivu???? I don't care if he is a all-round player, but for that production, the salary should be around $5.5M. It's one thing to sign a Crosby, Ovechkin or Malkin to rich contracts when theyhave given up some of their UFA year's, but its utter stupidity to offer the same money to UFA's for short-term deals taht do not include their UFA years. Anyway, I'm getting off to a tangent. My main point is if you are going to pay a young playr based on potential - you better be damn sure to lock him up long-term so at least you are also benefiting for locking him up at a high rate. It make zero sense to pay a guy double what he is worth (based on past performance) for a short-term deal, so you drive up his qualifying offer higher for his next contract. The owners negotiated a collective bargaining agreement to control player salaries before their UFA years. The utter stupidity and incompetance of some GM's has completely thrown the market out of wack and undermined what they negotiated. What was the friggin point of the lockout if the same stupid owners drive salaries unnecessarily high by paying out contracts that they don't have to give???? Edited July 18, 2010 by hab29RETIRED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 I understand the RFA vs UFA dynamics, but it doesn't change the fact that owners/fans want it both ways, cheap players and high end results, there's something wrong with this thinking. I fully expect Price to play lights out in the NHL with the habs, if the fans can let him, or with another team. Frankly, I don't see Price staying with the habs once he is a UFA, unless we lock him up for those UFA years now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bar Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 If the fans act like they have been, I wouldn't be surprised if Price does jet, and frankly I wouldn't blame him, we are terrible fans. Passionate to a fault, but terrible for developing young players. I'd love a 5-6 year contract for Price, I believe in him, in a way I never did in Halak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 (edited) Unless he signs for serious term, Price should be paid based on his performance up to this point. Nothing more. Nothing less. By that measure he should make at most $1 million per season more than, say, Dan Ellis. That would put Price at 2.5 mil. That sounds about right to me as the upper limit for a guy with formidable pedigree who has yet to assemble a compelling season/playoff as a #1 goalie in the NHL. 'Paying for potential?' My arse. Let him actually accomplish something first. Edited July 18, 2010 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeLassister Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 IMO, Price and his agent probably want decent money short term. Like 2,750M$ for 2 years. And Gauthier plan A should look like giving 3M$-3,5M$ for 5 seasons or something like that. I don't believe Price's side is willing to sign for longterm cuz everybody knows that Price is most likely to get better, and maybe way better. They probably don't want him to be stuck with lower value for season 4 and 5 of a longterm deal when he could be up for a big raise. I think this is why he is not signed yet. Both side don't want to give up their A plan right now and will wait a little more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCHabnut Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 If the fans act like they have been, I wouldn't be surprised if Price does jet, and frankly I wouldn't blame him, we are terrible fans. Passionate to a fault, but terrible for developing young players. I'd love a 5-6 year contract for Price, I believe in him, in a way I never did in Halak. 5 years at 3 million... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bar Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 Unless he signs for serious term, Price should be paid based on his performance up to this point. Nothing more. Nothing less. By that measure he should make at most $1 million per season more than, say, Dan Ellis. That would put Price at 2.5 mil. That sounds about right to me as the upper limit for a guy with formidable pedigree who has yet to assemble a compelling season/playoff as a #1 goalie in the NHL. 'Paying for potential?' My arse. Let him actually accomplish something first. If you don't want to pay for potential with a young player, you're really gonna get bit when they bloom, overpaying when they are RFA can lessen the cost when they are UFA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForumGhost Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 I understand the RFA vs UFA dynamics, but it doesn't change the fact that owners/fans want it both ways, cheap players and high end results, there's something wrong with this thinking. I fully expect Price to play lights out in the NHL with the habs, if the fans can let him, or with another team. Truthfully, that's what a lot of teams get from their RFA's. It looks like Stanley Cup teams now often capitalize on their good players in their RFA years. Once they have to pay them their next contract, that's when that team blows up and they have to re-tool/rebuild. A window of opportunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted July 18, 2010 Share Posted July 18, 2010 (edited) Truthfully, that's what a lot of teams get from their RFA's. It looks like Stanley Cup teams now often capitalize on their good players in their RFA years. Once they have to pay them their next contract, that's when that team blows up and they have to re-tool/rebuild. A window of opportunity. I don't agree with that. Chicago's the only real example of that and the reason they had to blow up their team is because of two incredibly stupid free agent signings - $7M for Campbell and $5.5M for Huet. Then on top of that they were forced to resign their RFA's at a much higher rate then they would have if Tallon hadn't screwed up last year and got the qualifying offers to thier RFA's in on time. Instead, to avoid going to arbitration to settle the situation and risk their RFA's becoming UFA's, they ended up resigning their players at a much higher salary then they would have, had they got their qualifying offers in on time. How Dale Tallon got another job is beyond me. Everyone goes on what a great job he did building the hawks - not hard to do, if you tank it for 5-8 years like the Hawks, Pens and Caps have done. Pittsburgh has too much tied up at center and with Malkin and Crosby making $9M/year, they have no room to make mistakes like the paying Brooks Oprik $3.75M. They would be much better off either moving one of their centres or converting one of them to a winger. Most teams have to be blown apart my mistakes in UFA signings - not RFA. That's whats got me worried about the habs. We have a minimum of 4 years of the following big ticket contracts left: Gomez - $7.2M Cammilari - $6M Gionta $5M Plekanec - $5M That's $23.2M for around 280 points of offence from the forwards. In three years we are going to be in a tough situation if some of the kids do pan out and we have to resign them and the rest of the forwards and goalies for around $37M (assuming the salary cap keeps going up and the next collective bargaining doesn't end up with a reduced salary cap. From the current players, lets say Price and Subban turn out to be studs we all want them to become and Markov and Gorges are resigned, we probalby have the following additions to the cap hit: -Markov $5.5M - assuming he is signed for about the same salary -Gorges $3M -Subban $4M (will probably be a RFA offer sheet candidate, give the SJ offer) -Price $4.5M That's another $17M, which brings the cap hit to $40.2M for 8 players, leaving around $20M to sign the following: Fill out the top two lines two lines and one other center, as well as the defence: -Lars Eller - $2.5M would be about the minimum, assuming he does become an impact player -Pouliot - $4M (Would be a UFA) -Avitsin - $2.5M- would be about the minimum, assuming he does become an impact player -Paciroetty - $2M - assuming he becomes a 20/50 man (or if the habs have someone else with similar numbers) -Weber/or another Dman $2M -Tinordi - $850k -Obyrne/replasment - $1.5M That's a total of $17.35M, bring the total salary to $57.55m. That leaves around $2.65m for five 3rd/4th line players, a back up goalie AND any bonus payments that rookies would be due (i.e. Tinordi, Leblanc, Kristo or others). So, IMO, even if everything works out fine with the young guys we are counting on, we are going to be in a very tough situation in a few years because of last years spending spree by Gainey. I know, i keep on getting comments on my pessimism, but its hard to be optimistic when you look at our future salary commitments. At the end of the day its the Gomez salary that is going to be anchor on any moves the habs can make, just as the Campbell salary will is to the hawks (since they are planning to dump Huet to the minors anyways). Edited July 18, 2010 by hab29RETIRED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saskhab Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 Well, Dale Tallon DID trade Matt Ellison for Patrick Sharp, and Brandon Bochenski for Kris Versteeg (we'll call Tuomo Ruutu for Andrew Ladd a wash). And he also signed Niemi as a UFA, plus drafted guys like Bolland, Hjalmarsson, and Brouwer in rounds that weren't the first. The Martin Havlat trade was also a GREAT one (all they traded was Mark Bell, who promptly got a DUI). It's not like he's completely incompetent and lucked his way to that team. Toews, Kane, Keith and Seabrook had a lot of support thanks to Tallon. He got goofy in contract negotiations, but he proved capable of assessing talent, just terrible at assessing proper value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacksonJ Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 I don't agree with that. Chicago's the only real example of that and the reason they had to blow up their team is because of two incredibly stupid free agent signings - $7M for Campbell and $5.5M for Huet. Then on top of that they were forced to resign their RFA's at a much higher rate then they would have if Tallon hadn't screwed up last year and got the qualifying offers to thier RFA's in on time. Instead, to avoid going to arbitration to settle the situation and risk their RFA's becoming UFA's, they ended up resigning their players at a much higher salary then they would have, had they got their qualifying offers in on time. How Dale Tallon got another job is beyond me. Everyone goes on what a great job he did building the hawks - not hard to do, if you tank it for 5-8 years like the Hawks, Pens and Caps have done. Pittsburgh has too much tied up at center and with Malkin and Crosby making $9M/year, they have no room to make mistakes like the paying Brooks Oprik $3.75M. They would be much better off either moving one of their centres or converting one of them to a winger. Most teams have to be blown apart my mistakes in UFA signings - not RFA. That's whats got me worried about the habs. We have a minimum of 4 years of the following big ticket contracts left: Gomez - $7.2M Cammilari - $6M Gionta $5M Plekanec - $5M That's $23.2M for around 280 points of offence from the forwards. In three years we are going to be in a tough situation if some of the kids do pan out and we have to resign them and the rest of the forwards and goalies for around $37M (assuming the salary cap keeps going up and the next collective bargaining doesn't end up with a reduced salary cap. From the current players, lets say Price and Subban turn out to be studs we all want them to become and Markov and Gorges are resigned, we probalby have the following additions to the cap hit: -Markov $5.5M - assuming he is signed for about the same salary -Gorges $3M -Subban $4M (will probably be a RFA offer sheet candidate, give the SJ offer) -Price $4.5M That's another $17M, which brings the cap hit to $40.2M for 8 players, leaving around $20M to sign the following: Fill out the top two lines two lines and one other center, as well as the defence: -Lars Eller - $2.5M would be about the minimum, assuming he does become an impact player -Pouliot - $4M (Would be a UFA) -Avitsin - $2.5M- would be about the minimum, assuming he does become an impact player -Paciroetty - $2M - assuming he becomes a 20/50 man (or if the habs have someone else with similar numbers) -Weber/or another Dman $2M -Tinordi - $850k -Obyrne/replasment - $1.5M That's a total of $17.35M, bring the total salary to $57.55m. That leaves around $2.65m for five 3rd/4th line players, a back up goalie AND any bonus payments that rookies would be due (i.e. Tinordi, Leblanc, Kristo or others). So, IMO, even if everything works out fine with the young guys we are counting on, we are going to be in a very tough situation in a few years because of last years spending spree by Gainey. I know, i keep on getting comments on my pessimism, but its hard to be optimistic when you look at our future salary commitments. At the end of the day its the Gomez salary that is going to be anchor on any moves the habs can make, just as the Campbell salary will is to the hawks (since they are planning to dump Huet to the minors anyways). The cap won't matter in that situation, because the only way all those players get all those raises is if we win the cup. Also the salary cap is always on the rise, so maybe by then we will have more wiggle room. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 (edited) If you don't want to pay for potential with a young player, you're really gonna get bit when they bloom, overpaying when they are RFA can lessen the cost when they are UFA. Well, I think we should at least ask that Price put together ONE convincing season + playoff before we start paying out. Call me crazy. But you'll note that RFAs who typically get locked up to sizeable deals usually have at least one bona-fide impressive season under their belts...not just great half-seasons followed by varying degrees of collapse. Beyond that, if you're Price and believe that you have it in you to be Roberto Luongo, are you gonna lock in for 8 years at $3 mil? While for their part the Habs would be just stupid to lock him in for 8 years at $5 mil based on where he is in his career. Unless Price is willing to be permanently underpaid relative to his potential, a shorter-term deal is all that makes sense given his stage of development. If Price wants to play here after all the crap he's been through, he will likely still want to play here in his UFA season; while if he doesn't want to play here longer term, then he won't sign a long-term deal now anyway. Finally, we simply don't have the cap room to sign Price at Halak-sized money in any case. So the idea of overpaying now to get a bargain long-term still doesn't work. So I'll reiterate: anything over 2.5 looks suspicious to me (OK, say 2.75 to factor in the taxes). Edited July 19, 2010 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habitforming Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 Unless he signs for serious term, Price should be paid based on his performance up to this point. Nothing more. Nothing less. By that measure he should make at most $1 million per season more than, say, Dan Ellis. That would put Price at 2.5 mil. That sounds about right to me as the upper limit for a guy with formidable pedigree who has yet to assemble a compelling season/playoff as a #1 goalie in the NHL. 'Paying for potential?' My arse. Let him actually accomplish something first. Sure it sounds great in theory, but every player is paid based on potential and they always have been. Every entry level contract does it with a $800K- $1M salary, then tack on the bonus structure ($2.2M total salary for Price's entry deal) and voila.... a potential based contract. It has always been that way, hell, even Michael Ryder got a deal like that and when he didn't live up to it, he walked as a UFA (Now the Bruins don't want his $4M ass either). I know what you're trying to say, but it really doesn't work that way right now in the NHL and I highly doubt the Habs will be the next trend setter in that regard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueKross Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 Sure it sounds great in theory, but every player is paid based on potential and they always have been. Every entry level contract does it with a $800K- $1M salary, then tack on the bonus structure ($2.2M total salary for Price's entry deal) and voila.... a potential based contract. It has always been that way, hell, even Michael Ryder got a deal like that and when he didn't live up to it, he walked as a UFA (Now the Bruins don't want his $4M ass either). I know what you're trying to say, but it really doesn't work that way right now in the NHL and I highly doubt the Habs will be the next trend setter in that regard. The Canadiens have made it clear that they will sink or swim with Price. What's one more onerous contract? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bar Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 Well, I think we should at least ask that Price put together ONE convincing season + playoff before we start paying out. Call me crazy. But you'll note that RFAs who typically get locked up to sizeable deals usually have at least one bona-fide impressive season under their belts...not just great half-seasons followed by varying degrees of collapse. Beyond that, if you're Price and believe that you have it in you to be Roberto Luongo, are you gonna lock in for 8 years at $3 mil? While for their part the Habs would be just stupid to lock him in for 8 years at $5 mil based on where he is in his career. Unless Price is willing to be permanently underpaid relative to his potential, a shorter-term deal is all that makes sense given his stage of development. If Price wants to play here after all the crap he's been through, he will likely still want to play here in his UFA season; while if he doesn't want to play here longer term, then he won't sign a long-term deal now anyway. Finally, we simply don't have the cap room to sign Price at Halak-sized money in any case. So the idea of overpaying now to get a bargain long-term still doesn't work. So I'll reiterate: anything over 2.5 looks suspicious to me (OK, say 2.75 to factor in the taxes). I'm not advocating Price get big dollars, I was merely pointing out that we as fans obsess over how much a player makes and they better match up to the dollar figure on their contract or else...yet, with younger players on RFA deals they usually surpass their dollar figures and we're still not happy. You want Price (I don't mean you, I mean people in general) to sign that 3 year deal at $1.5 m? Then don't be surprised when he's not Roy incarnate, I'm not suggesting Price would tank it because he's paid less, because it's in his best interest to play better. It almost seems players underpaid as RFA ask for the moon when it comes to UFA, so if you temper it a bit when they're younger you can foster better deals later on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueKross Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 I'm not advocating Price get big dollars, I was merely pointing out that we as fans obsess over how much a player makes and they better match up to the dollar figure on their contract or else...yet, with younger players on RFA deals they usually surpass their dollar figures and we're still not happy. You want Price (I don't mean you, I mean people in general) to sign that 3 year deal at $1.5 m? Then don't be surprised when he's not Roy incarnate, I'm not suggesting Price would tank it because he's paid less, because it's in his best interest to play better. It almost seems players underpaid as RFA ask for the moon when it comes to UFA, so if you temper it a bit when they're younger you can foster better deals later on. There is no doubt that it is a sticky wicket. I am not sure if you and CC aren't saying the same thing in a different way. I do believe management has to show confidence in Carey in terms of contract. The good news is that if you take Trotters amount (when it comes) and a little emergency safe guard there isn't a whole lot of money left to get silly with. Bar- I do believe you picked up on my dry sense of humor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bar Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 As I've been replying to CC, I think you are correct Blue, that me and CC are really saying the same thing with different words. I just want Price signed so we can move on to new debates haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted July 19, 2010 Share Posted July 19, 2010 As I've been replying to CC, I think you are correct Blue, that me and CC are really saying the same thing with different words. I just want Price signed so we can move on to new debates haha. Don't get your hopes up for a quick signing, it'll be another week at least I would think (educated guess on my end). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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