2012 NHL Entry Draft talk

[Commandant]

Our latest profile is up. A huge Defenceman from the Ottawa 67s, Codi Ceci

http://lastwordonsports.com/2012/04/19/nhl-draft-prospect-profile-14-cody-ceci/

[Commandant]

I'm pretty sure MacMillan was picked with the one coming back from Phoenix. http://www.gohabs.com/trades.htm Still a nice pick, I like his long-term potential.

You are correct.

Still my main point stands. If you trust your scouts and they tell you that there is a player that you absolutely must have, I don't mind the trade up option one bit.

At the same time, if they think that they can trade down and get there guy, do that too.

Its a fluid situation and you have to trust the scouts

[DON]

I'm pretty sure MacMillan was picked with the one coming back from Phoenix. http://www.gohabs.com/trades.htm Still a nice pick, I like his long-term potential.

2010

1st round pick, 22nd - Jarred Tinordi (from Phoenix - picks #27 & #57 traded for picks #22 & #113)

4th round pick, 113th - Mark MacMillan (from Phoenix - picks swap)

4th round pick, 117th - Morgan Ellis

Timmins seems to make some swaps and another one this year would be no surprise.

Just i would be more in favour of quantity, as he did last year trading a 3rd rounder for two 4ths.

And Ellis,Gallagher are a couple examples of why more later picks seems to pay off. Especially if turn 1 2nd into two 3rds, or something like that.

Etem had 61 goals in 65 games? No matter how good a defensive d-man Ellis is, a big scorer is what Habs could really use moreso and if you would take Tinordi (and MacMillan) over both Etem and Johns (who is heavier than Tinrodi) who is a big physical d-man, fine; but i argue the other way.

Or; could of had both Faulk who jumped from NCAA straight to NHL (and did fine on a crappy Carolina team) and Johns (who may be an equal to Tinordi by himself?).

But Timmins must of seen something he really liked in Tinordi and Price is gonna love to have him on board.

And like i say, hindsight makes it just too easy to pick apart every trade or move.

If he trades up again, that is fine by me, just i would prefer to have an extra player picked in the 2nd round, as there are a bunch of super looking guys ranked between 25th-60some and getting 3 of them plus the #3 pick would be a good haul, maybe as good or better than 2007 was for Habs?

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Tinordi was all about need and pedigree. Kid has a fantastic pedigree. His father was one of those guys you want on your NHL blueline and in your locker room. Jarred is everything his dad was and more in terms of size and potential.

I think Timmins had his eyes on certain players and knew Buffalo wanted Tinordi. Imagine Buffalo with that kind of size (Tinordi/Myers). He knew the only way to get him was to swap with Phoenix and while we gave up a lot that draft, I've watched Tinordi in London. He has Chara presence in the OHL. Every player and the opposing coach knows when he's on the ice and changes their game strategy accordingly. He won't be Chara, I just mean how the way you'd play a shift when Chara is at D and how you'd play when it's Corvo is different.

[DON]

Tinordi was all about need and pedigree. Kid has a fantastic pedigree. His father was one of those guys you want on your NHL blueline and in your locker room. Jarred is everything his dad was and more in terms of size and potential.

I think Timmins had his eyes on certain players and knew Buffalo wanted Tinordi. Imagine Buffalo with that kind of size (Tinordi/Myers). He knew the only way to get him was to swap with Phoenix and while we gave up a lot that draft, I've watched Tinordi in London. He has Chara presence in the OHL. Every player and the opposing coach knows when he's on the ice and changes their game strategy accordingly. He won't be Chara, I just mean how the way you'd play a shift when Chara is at D and how you'd play when it's Corvo is different.

I think i remember Canucks were rumoured to want him and were picking just before the Habs?

And i am by no means crapping on Tinordi at all, just question the 2 for 1 (i know MacMillan also) trade to move up 5 spots when lots of nice prospects were still available, thats all.

And i cant wait to see how Tinrodi fares vs Pros next fall.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

I think i remember Canucks were rumoured to want him and were picking just before the Habs?

And i am by no means crapping on Tinordi at all, just question the 2 for 1 (i know MacMillan also) trade to move up 5 spots when lots of nice prospects were still available, thats all.

And i cant wait to see how Tinrodi fares vs Pros next fall.

Oh I totally see your perspective on it but I think Tinordi is just a different prospect. We're talking having a 6'7" stay at home, nasty, gritty, fists of stone and leadership qualities. It's like having Hal Gill at 35 in the body of a 20 year old who knows and likes to drop the gloves. Tinordi doesn't just make smaller players pay for going to the net, he makes bigger players pay for going to the net. Once he gets to 230lbs he'll be a juggernaut.

[DON]

Oh I totally see your perspective on it but I think Tinordi is just a different prospect. We're talking having a 6'7" stay at home, nasty, gritty, fists of stone and leadership qualities. It's like having Hal Gill at 35 in the body of a 20 year old who knows and likes to drop the gloves. Tinordi doesn't just make smaller players pay for going to the net, he makes bigger players pay for going to the net. Once he gets to 230lbs he'll be a juggernaut.

If he comes into camp at 225lbs, he will not be long for the AHL before being called up i bet? May also depend on whether Habs pick up Bryan Allen or the like on July 1st.

[Commandant]

Tinordi was all about need and pedigree. Kid has a fantastic pedigree. His father was one of those guys you want on your NHL blueline and in your locker room. Jarred is everything his dad was and more in terms of size and potential.

I think Timmins had his eyes on certain players and knew Buffalo wanted Tinordi. Imagine Buffalo with that kind of size (Tinordi/Myers). He knew the only way to get him was to swap with Phoenix and while we gave up a lot that draft, I've watched Tinordi in London. He has Chara presence in the OHL. Every player and the opposing coach knows when he's on the ice and changes their game strategy accordingly. He won't be Chara, I just mean how the way you'd play a shift when Chara is at D and how you'd play when it's Corvo is different.

Its long been out in the media that the First Rounder Vancouver traded to Florida as part of the Ballard deal was conditional on Tinordi being available. If Tinordi was available, Florida was getting Vancouver's 2011 First instead of their 2010 pick. Vancouver was drafting I think 25th that year and Montreal was 27th, so we had to trade up or we weren't getting Tinordi.

As for next year... give Tinordi the full season with the Dogs. Big defencemen often need time to adjust to the faster speed of the game as they move up a level. Moving him from the OHL to NHL would not be good for his development IMO. Too much too soon.

Love him going forward, but we gotta have patience.

[DON]

Dumba had another goal today and on top scoring at U18s with 9 pts in 5 games

Teravainen has 7 pts in 4 games

Forsberg 4 goals in 4 games

That Scott Laughton seems like a very nice player and just another possible centreman 2nd round pick for Habs?

Canada must be pretty big underdog vs USA tomorrow.

[Commandant]

I gotta say I'd love Laughton with the Nashville pick. I wouldn't take him with the Habs 2nd rounder though, too high.

[Easy Ryder]

Just a thought here but Tampa has 10 and 23.

For me there too much doubt around the russians and Forsberg could go as soon as

number 2 so if this happen.

Still a very good D to draft first, Reinhart or Ceci.

The other guy there would beTom Wilson, huge in playoffs this year, point a game and huge in size, 6.4f 204p. The way playoffs are played, Habs need a guy like this, a warrior, not afraid to scrap and score.

Still with pick 33

Stefan Matteau, son of his dad. huge too. Decent numbers.

Tanner Pearson loved the way he start the year and at the world junior, deceiving end of season but still a warrior.

.

This would fill more holes in the prospects line-up than a highlight hero with a concussion.

Cody Ceci and Wilson would be something fine. Add Matteau and some Timmins bargains.

No superstar i know but there too much doubt around the russians and Forsberg could go as soon as

number 2.

[dlbalr]

Don't get excited too much about Pearson in Barrie. He's worth a pick somewhere but nowhere close to the late 1st/early 2nd round like pundits are suggesting. He benefited from facing shallow competition as when he and Schiefele were separated, the checkers went to that top line leaving him and a high scoring overager to beat up on lesser guys. As teams started to focus on him more down the stretch his production dropped noticeably (under a point-per-game the last two months after leading the league in scoring before the WJHC). I wouldn't look at him until the 3rd to be honest...and I'm a Barrie fan who'd love to have a Hab prospect on that team.

[Commandant]

I wouldn't touch any kind of trade down... In Yakupov, Galchenyuk and Forsberg there are at least 3 solid forwards in this draft.. (4 for those who still believe in Grigorenko, and I still think he's a good prospect). I don't think the next group of forwards are close to those 4.

I want elite 1st line talent not more 2nd liners.. which is what you'll get by trading down.

Sure there is a possibility of busts, but ask yourself this.

Would Chicago trade Jonathan Toews for Brian Gionta and Lars Eller? I don't think they would, thats what you are advocating with a trade down for two lower first round picks.

A chance at a franchise player (top 3) vs a chance at two very good players (a pick in the teens and a pick in the 20s).

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I wouldn't touch any kind of trade down... In Yakupov, Galchenyuk and Forsberg there are at least 3 solid forwards in this draft.. (4 for those who still believe in Grigorenko, and I still think he's a good prospect). I don't think the next group of forwards are close to those 4.

I want elite 1st line talent not more 2nd liners.. which is what you'll get by trading down.

Sure there is a possibility of busts, but ask yourself this.

Would Chicago trade Jonathan Toews for Brian Gionta and Lars Eller? I don't think they would, thats what you are advocating with a trade down for two lower first round picks.

A chance at a franchise player (top 3) vs a chance at two very good players (a pick in the teens and a pick in the 20s).

I don't really follow the prospect stuff, but it's interesting (if not in any way rigorously predictive) to look at the 3rd overall picks from the past decade and see what that tells us about drafting 3rd overall.

2009 - Matt Duchene

2008 - Zach Bosogian

2007 - Kyle Turris

2006 - Jonathan Toews

2005 - Jack Johnson

2004 - Cam Barker

2003 - Nathan Horton

2002 - Jay Bouwmeester

2001 - Alexander Svitov

2000 - Marian Gaborik

1999 - Henrik Sedin

What's the pattern here? Three franchise players (Toews, Gaborik and Sedin, although this last is a bit of a special case because he's a twin, which may have affected his draft position); two clear top-drawer talents (Bouwmeester and Duchene); four quality top-6 forwards/top-4 defencemen (Horton, Johnson, Bosogian, maybe Turris), one iffy guy (Barker) and one flat-out bust (Svitov).

This suggests that the 3rd overall pick yields a 30% chance of a 'franchise' player and a 20% chance of garbage, with the remainder about evenly split between guys who become major top-line/top-pairing players and mere Gionta-style second liners.

Bit of a dog's breakfast. But still, I like those odds of yielding a high-quality player (about 40-50%) and it just feels wrong to me to say that we should trade down based on an analysis of this year's models - too clever by half. Let's not overthink this. We've got a viable chance to draft a horse. We gotta go for it.

[Commandant]

Zemgus Girgensons of Latvia is our next profile

http://lastwordonsports.com/2012/04/20/nhl-draft-prospect-profile-16-zemgus-girgensons/

[bbp]

Zemgus Girgensons of Latvia is our next profile

http://lastwordonspo...gus-girgensons/

Going NCAA route, Latvia is pretty close to Belarus, big powerful center... if we were in the middle of the pack we would probs end up with this guy haha

[BlueKross]

I wouldn't touch any kind of trade down... In Yakupov, Galchenyuk and Forsberg there are at least 3 solid forwards in this draft.. (4 for those who still believe in Grigorenko, and I still think he's a good prospect). I don't think the next group of forwards are close to those 4.

I want elite 1st line talent not more 2nd liners.. which is what you'll get by trading down.

Sure there is a possibility of busts, but ask yourself this.

Would Chicago trade Jonathan Toews for Brian Gionta and Lars Eller? I don't think they would, thats what you are advocating with a trade down for two lower first round picks.

A chance at a franchise player (top 3) vs a chance at two very good players (a pick in the teens and a pick in the 20s).

I would really have to consider a trade down to Leafs, because one of your forwards or that elite defenseman would have to be available at five. Unless you are in love with one them, it makes sense to listen to what Leafs might offer.

[hab29RETIRED]

Seriously????

There's actually someone on the leafs you want??

I would really have to consider a trade down to Leafs, because one of your forwards or that elite defenseman would have to be available at five. Unless you are in love with one them, it makes sense to listen to what Leafs might offer.

[Bostonhabs]

I would take their 1st and franson or gunnarsson If and i say if they think there guy will still be there at 5. I want a forward like the rest of ya's

[DON]

I gotta say I'd love Laughton with the Nashville pick. I wouldn't take him with the Habs 2nd rounder though, too high.

Forsberg and Collberg led Sweden today over Finns.

I would have to guess both Forsberg and Galchenyuk are both preferred by Timmins over Grigorenko and Dumba must be a consideration ( he seems to be a tougher version of Subban)?

I am still sold on Lukas Sutter @ 33rd. And Tim Bozon if still available at 55th or maybe Matteau/Troock/Winther; at 63rd Coda Gordon would be a steal, a 30 goal guy who might be still available this late?

[Commandant]

I think Bozon goes well before Sutter, I have sutter a lot later than him. I have Bozon in range in the 30s and Sutter in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

[DON]

I think Bozon goes well before Sutter, I have sutter a lot later than him.

Bozon seems to have better hands and skating, but Sutter is a Sutter and his toughness, "Truculence" (to borrow an idiots term) and front of net presense is a missing ingrediant in Hab prospect pool. And he almost had 30 goals and is a centre as well.

And seems the rankings have these two anywhere in 30s to 40s. but unlikely either would last till 55th?

[Commandant]

Rankings are a lot more wildly divergent the lower you go. You could be right and Sutter goes first, but those are just my own numbers and I'm no expert.

[Willey101]

I think Edmonton would laugh at that and hang up the phone. Yakupov is so far above every other player in this draft you take him and hope Klefbom (19th overall in 2011), Musil (31st overall in 2011), Teubert (former first rounder of LA) + your 32nd pick this year develop into good defencemen. In Whitney, Petry, Schultz, and Smid their D has a good start at the NHL level too.

You want #1, the price would be #3 + #33 + one of Beaulieu or Tinordi.

Cost will not be that high. I am willing to bet that the 3rd overall and a 2nd round pick would allow you to move up 2 spots and did you not say Weber could be dealt for a 2nd round pick? Unless you now agree there is no way Weber can fetch a second rounder?

[Bostonhabs]

Weber doesn't suck he just doesn't fit with our team for what we have. he has a great shot and is a puck mover as well he hits. he just is not big like most of our d men if he was 6'3" and 220 he would be on our team. so i think he is worth a 2nd no less and i wouldn't trade our first plus either one of those guy's tinordi or beaulieu for yakupov who is to say he is that much better then the g men or forsberg in a yr or two.