DON Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Poached couple figures from Jokke Nevalainen NHL Draft Pick Probabilities, for drafts 2000-2009. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 So, 75% vs 65% (at most) for 9th vs 16th pick. Not a huge difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, tomh009 said: So, 75% vs 65% (at most) for 9th vs 16th pick. Not a huge difference. >99 games played (or any other arbitrary number) is interesting piece of data but not immensely useful ... Kyle Chipchura managed to play 482 games, but was not in any way impactful ... the difference that matters is how impactful pucks are ... but a rather subjective concept to try to measure ... forwards could perhaps be measured by goals/points per game, but how would you measure Guy Carbonneau or Doug Jarvis ... similar issues for defencemen and goalies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Yeah, it's a coarse measure. 100+ games really just means that you managed to secure a regular NHL role for at least one season. Not enough to tell the difference between a Chipchura and a Crosby -- but it's a prerequisite. Anyone who didn't get the 100 games in did not turn into an NHL player at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 12 hours ago, GHT120 said: >99 games played (or any other arbitrary number) is interesting piece of data but not immensely useful Majority of metrics, however you want to slice it show similar trend; Top 5, most are impact players 5-15, pretty safe bet to be solid player 15-30, flip a coin if become a reg NHLer 30-60, maybe 15% will be good- very good NHLer 70% of reg NHLers come from top 2 rounds. Vast majority of elite forwards are top 5 picks. This one was what might be what you call 'useful'; have better chance of hitting on a top 4 d-man than a top six forward, outside of 1st round. *from what i have read anyways and are a million draft or probability or Pick-Value articles out there, if really bored. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Corey Pronman from June, The athletic: Pronman: Top 31 NHL Draft prospects of the past five years, 2020 edition 14 Jesperi Kotkaniemi, 2018 draft (third overall, Montreal): Kotkaniemi was a top-five prospect on my final 2018 list. I liked his skill and offensive hockey sense a lot. I thought he could be a driver in the NHL, even with so-so skating. I liked his trajectory and how he ended his season, even without a rich statistical history. He had a great first NHL season and a rocky second one, and he ended up being sent to the AHL where he averaged a point per game. With his size, skill and vision, Kotkaniemi could still be a very good player and help a top-six, maybe even a top line. But given he lacks dangerous NHL quickness, he may not live up to that third-overall billing. 17 Cole Caufield, 2019 draft (15th overall, Montreal): I was a big fan of Caufield coming out of the USNTDP as he set all kinds of offensive records, displayed a ton of skill, had a special shot, and looked like a true top prospect even with his lack of size and truly elite speed. In his first season at Wisconsin, he was one of the best freshmen in college and a top player in his conference. The physicality of the higher level pushed him, and he wasn’t as dominant as he was in junior. I wouldn’t have him top-five in a redraft, but he wouldn’t be far behind. 27 Nick Suzuki, 2017 draft (13th overall, Vegas): Suzuki was a top player in junior year after year, including in his draft season when he dazzled with his skill, vision and finishing ability. Concerns on Suzuki have revolved around his size and skating, especially the latter. He showed as a rookie NHLer he could play in a top-six and look the part, even without blazing speed, due to his smarts and his willingness to work to win battles. He looks on track and I remain high on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 When asked by Louis jean of TVA sports which prospect interview made the biggest impression, Martin Lapointe surprised him by answering the question ... [Translation] "[Dawson] Mercer really impressed us. You see the little guy has character. On the other hand, there are others for whom a little something is missing." Shared for whatever it's worth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Mercer, if still available, would be an excellent pick at 16. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, Commandant said: Mercer, if still available, would be an excellent pick at 16. Agree ... and Newfoundland has "owed" the Habs a good first rounder for 25 years ... <pop> ... tongue leaving cheek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trizzak Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Updated: Habs 1st round pick: 16th OA Habs 2nd round pick: 47th OA Hawks 2nd round pick: 48th OA Blues 2nd round pick: 57th OA Habs 3rd round pick: 78th OA Caps 3rd round pick: 87th OA Ducks 4th round pick: 98th OA Jets 4th round pick: 102nd OA Habs 4th round pick: 109th OA Panthers 5th round pick: 136th OA Habs 5th round pick: 140th OA Habs 6th round pick: 171st OA Sens 7th round pick: 188th OA Hawks 7th round pick: 203rd OA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 15 hours ago, Trizzak said: Updated: Habs 1st round pick: 16th OA Habs 2nd round pick: 47th OA Hawks 2nd round pick: 48th OA Blues 2nd round pick: 57th OA Habs 3rd round pick: 78th OA Caps 3rd round pick: 87th OA Ducks 4th round pick: 98th OA Jets 4th round pick: 102nd OA Habs 4th round pick: 109th OA Panthers 5th round pick: 136th OA Habs 5th round pick: 140th OA Habs 6th round pick: 171st OA Sens 7th round pick: 188th OA Hawks 7th round pick: 203rd OA Is that including the Coyotes losing their second rounder? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trizzak Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, Commandant said: Is that including the Coyotes losing their second rounder? ... Dammit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 10 hours ago, Trizzak said: ... Dammit. It would have needed an update after the Allen trade anyways thanks for keeping updating this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted September 6, 2020 Share Posted September 6, 2020 picks chart (from Blades, EOTP) just noticed, i think 1 short for Habs own picks 3rd to 6th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Draft moved up to Oct 6-7, free agency pushed to Oct 9th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Just KK watching himself get drafted and listening to talking heads pump his tires. Dont think he will ever forget the camera showing the pissed off lady Habs Fan. JUst 3 1/2 weeks till we nab Holloway with 16th pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 2 hours ago, DON said: Just KK watching himself get drafted and listening to talking heads pump his tires. Dont think he will ever forget the camera showing the pissed off lady Habs Fan ... Seems a little drastic ... I thought she was just astounded that he was still available (LOL) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 2 hours ago, GHT120 said: Seems a little drastic ... I thought she was just astounded that he was still available (LOL) Maybe she jumped the gun and was wearing a Tkachuk or Zadina Hab jersey? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, DON said: Maybe she jumped the gun and was wearing a Tkachuk or Zadina Hab jersey? Couple hundred wasted bucks could do that to someone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 I have a feeling that we're going to see the Habs focus on quite a few long term project types in this draft if they don't move some of those picks. With their current prospect pool and limited contract space, it would make sense to avoid too many CHL prospects that need to be signed in two years. That's not to say the Habs are going to ignore the better prospect to choose a player who's rights can be retained longer, but if the prospects are close I could see them avoiding the CHL players. I could definitely see the Habs grabbing Holloway with their first. Amirov, Gunler, Peterka, and Reichel could be others. In the second round I could some interest in Colangelo, Smilanic, Bordeleau, and Savoie. Habs do like to draft defensemen in the second so I'd add Kleven, Grans, Jurmo, Niemela and Wallinder (if he slips out of the first). With 3 second rounders the Habs may draft a CHLer or two as well if there is any they really like. I could also see the Habs moving at least one of those 2nd rounders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 2 hours ago, John B said: I have a feeling that we're going to see the Habs focus on quite a few long term project types in this draft if they don't move some of those picks. With their current prospect pool and limited contract space... Think that was the plan in February/March ... but with the unexpected chance in the Tournament and the good play/results I expect MB will first try to bundle some picks (with players/prospects) to get "now" help ... other option always to bundle to move up, but think your non-CHL plan would still apply regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted September 12, 2020 Share Posted September 12, 2020 (edited) 22 hours ago, John B said: I have a feeling that we're going to see the Habs focus on quite a few long term project types in this draft if they don't move some of those picks. With their current prospect pool and limited contract space, it would make sense to avoid too many CHL prospects that need to be signed in two years. Makes sense for sure. I could definitely see the Habs grabbing Holloway with their first. Seems like a nice option to me, from what have read. I could also see the Habs moving at least one of those 2nd rounders. I'd say 100% chance that will happen, but will it be; trade back (cant think want more picks), up or push back till next year (or maybe trade deadline)? Edited September 12, 2020 by DON edits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Somewhat misleading title: https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-draft-primer-montreal-canadiens-1.1524040 Most of it looks back ... when they discuss who the habs should draft, it begins with the "incredibly insightful observation" that Button identifies Montreal’s primary need as goal-scorers ... wow ... who knew ... < OK, maybe too sarcastic > Of course Button only discussed 1-15 because the "bit" was all about the Leafs after the Pittsburgh trade The preview identified four options: Dawson Mercer, Hendrix Lapierre, Jacob Perreault and Lukas Reichel; Dawson and Lapierre tied in an online poll. Button's pick is Mercer ... in his March list he had Lapierre #10 and Mercer #17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habsfan89 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 I hope we trade our 1st and get a elite winger or D. We have all the right components to pull off a major trade NHL roster players (Danault, Domi, Mete,Byron) names that have been in rumors mill. Draft picks (1st and 2nd picks we have) A good prospect pool we have. These are what teams look at when base of a major trade for elite type players. Now I wouldn't trade Danault but I understand him wanting to be the team's number one center and not giving that up to be the 3rd line center. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said: I hope we trade our 1st and get a elite winger or D. We have all the right components to pull off a major trade NHL roster players (Danault, Domi, Mete,Byron) names that have been in rumors mill. Draft picks (1st and 2nd picks we have) A good prospect pool we have. These are what teams look at when base of a major trade for elite type players. Now I wouldn't trade Danault but I understand him wanting to be the team's number one center and not giving that up to be the 3rd line center. Think of you want an ELITE player in return it would take at least the 16th overall, one of Danault/Domi/Tartar and one of Caufield/Romanov As for Danault ... his role as a 3C would be the more traditional shutdown centre and he likely would get almost the same minutes as KK and Suzuki, at least this season ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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