2020 NHL draft

[HabsWEST]

First hope everyone is staying safe!! continued health to all.

 

As it appears we will have a " virtual " NHL draft in June before and if and when we have a regular and/or NHL season.

 

Details emerging with NHL memo circulation to all teams for discussion starting today, on final format.

 

According to TSN and link below, Looks like the older format taking place is on the table by NHL with no more than a non playoff team moving 4 spots if they win the draft lottery. Only the bottom 5 teams can win the top position to select first overall.

 

Which unfortunately is not good news for Montreal, even if they win the lottery under these conditions, the best they can do is select 4th. Well small chance they would win, so appears in cards they will be in the 7 to 9 selecting position. Which prospect would you like seeing the Habs select in this position?

 

" ..The NHL also outlined the possibility of returning for this year only to the old lottery format which determined just one winner and that winner could not move up more than four positions.

Under the format, the Detroit Red Wings would be guaranteed a top-2 pick. The Ottawa Senators are guaranteed draft picks of no worse than No. 3 and No. 4. The Montreal Canadiens, currently at No. 8, could move no higher than No. 4 with a lottery win, but fall no lower than No. 9.."

https://www.tsn.ca/national-hockey-league-sends-memo-to-governors-and-gms-outlining-case-for-early-june-draft-1.1472203

Ottawa and bottom 5 teams appear to benefit most and will appear to support this plan. 

Most other teams will have a problem with it.

Once this gets all confirmed, we can start talking about who may the Canadiens draft and if they will , as Timmons, alluded to be this draft selecting " Best Player " available.

 

Stay safe everyone 🙏

[tomh009]

I wonder what the rationale is for changing the lottery format. Good for the bottom-five teams, bad for us, yes -- but why would they change it now? Would it in some way be better in a COVID year?

[Commandant]

20 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

I wonder what the rationale is for changing the lottery format. Good for the bottom-five teams, bad for us, yes -- but why would they change it now? Would it in some way be better in a COVID year?

 

The claim.... they don't want the first overall team to have a chance at the cup.

 

My conspiracy theory... this benefits Detroit and Ottawa.  Detroit is a huge American original six franchise, Chicago is going into a rebuilding mode, Detroit is garbage right now.  The NHL needs Detroit to be better, so that they can be marketed in national tv games, can be part of outdoor games, can be a flagship franchise in the league again. Detroit has a huge fanbase in the US, and the NHL needs them to be good again, so lets boost the rebuild by ensuring they can't pick below 2.  Detroit's prospect depth really isn't that good considering how long they have been crap now... they need the help

 

Ottawa, their attendance is attrocious and the new arena isn't exactly happening.  We need them to be good too, so lets make sure they get 2 of the top 4 players (and likely 2 of the top 3) in this draft. 

There is no real justification for this rule change, other than to screw with this. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Another interesting question is the extent to which the lost games (both stretch-drive and playoff) in the junior ranks affect scouting. To what degree were teams' minds already made up by early March, as opposed to learning still more about players' attributes by observing their performance in the hone stretch and playoffs? In other words, can COVID be expected to make any difference at all to draft-day decisions?

[Commandant]

9 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Another interesting question is the extent to which the lost games (both stretch-drive and playoff) in the junior ranks affect scouting. To what degree were teams' minds already made up by early March, as opposed to learning still more about players' attributes by observing their performance in the hone stretch and playoffs? In other words, can COVID be expected to make any difference at all to draft-day decisions?

 

The Under 18 is always a huge tournament that leads to movement in the european prospects IMO.  Especially kids who play in men's leagues predominantly.  You can see some 17 year old who is getting 5 minutes a game in the top Swedish league or something and how much can you learn about them?  Much easier to see what they do against their peers.  That said, the scouts have seen them at the 4-nations or 5-nations and the Hlinka, and the Under 17 WHC, so you still have data on them, but yes the U18 would have helped some of these players. 

 

Players who have been hurt much of the year like Justin Barron and Hendrix Lapierre also could have used a stretch run and playoffs to show their stuff. 

 

but I think most Canadian and American junior players who play a ton of games have already been scouted.  You don't want to use too short a sample size in scouting either. We've all seen the NHL player who looks great for 10 games and shitty for 40.... we can get the same thing in draftees, so you don't want to overrate a short stretch where we have great play. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

24 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

The Under 18 is always a huge tournament that leads to movement in the european prospects IMO.  Especially kids who play in men's leagues predominantly.  You can see some 17 year old who is getting 5 minutes a game in the top Swedish league or something and how much can you learn about them?  Much easier to see what they do against their peers.  That said, the scouts have seen them at the 4-nations or 5-nations and the Hlinka, and the Under 17 WHC, so you still have data on them, but yes the U18 would have helped some of these players. 

 

Players who have been hurt much of the year like Justin Barron and Hendrix Lapierre also could have used a stretch run and playoffs to show their stuff. 

 

but I think most Canadian and American junior players who play a ton of games have already been scouted.  You don't want to use too short a sample size in scouting either. We've all seen the NHL player who looks great for 10 games and shitty for 40.... we can get the same thing in draftees, so you don't want to overrate a short stretch where we have great play. 

 

Good post, thanks. Sounds like the draft will be a bit more of a crapshoot when it comes to Europeans and to guys with serious injuries, then. It'll be interesting to look back in five years and see if a couple of gems fitting that profile ended up getting drafted oddly late, in retrospect.

[Commandant]

The other thing is no combine.  Does the combine matter (I've always been in the camp that its overrated).... but thats cancelled.

 

How does the NHL handle the Coyotes who supposedly had physical testing with players illegally.  If they did, they have info no one else has with no combine... so how will the NHL handle that?  (of course the Coyotes already traded their first round pick to the Devils for Taylor Hall).

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Just as a random rabbit-hole, it is interesting to see the modest correlation between success at the combine and eventual NHL success. Only the "pull up" category seems particularly predictive, based purely on the 2014 case. https://www.topendsports.com/sport/icehockey/nhl-combine-results-2014.htm

[DON]

Which way should Habs lean at pick #8 (if ignore lottery)

 

Hope Perfetti or Rossi are still on the board and grab one if can.

Or are the Finn- Lundell or Swede- Holtz just as good options?

[Commandant]

7 hours ago, DON said:

Which way should Habs lean at pick #8 (if ignore lottery)

 

Hope Perfetti or Rossi are still on the board and grab one if can.

Or are the Finn- Lundell or Swede- Holtz just as good options?

 

My list has a clear drop off between 8 and 9.  The two swedes are in the top 8.  Lundell is not, his skating is poor.  That can be improved but why take him ahead of guys who have the same skill level and already skate much better.

 

Take whichever one of the top 8 is left from my list

 

Tier 1: lafreniere

Tier 2: 2 and 3

Tier 3: 4-8

Tier 4: 9-12

 

https://Lastwordonhockey.com/2020-nhl-entry-draft-headquarters

 

 

 

[BCHabnut]

So enough of the season was played to determine the playoff teams, but not enough was played to determine the draft lottery? Very manipulative in my opinion.

[DON]

22 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

So enough of the season was played to determine the playoff teams?

Where did you see this?

 

Teams that overpaid at trade deadline to bolster a playoff run,  must really really want a playoffs to happen.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

1 hour ago, DON said:

Where did you see this?

 

Teams that overpaid at trade deadline to bolster a playoff run,  must really really want a playoffs to happen.

 

It's quite an interesting question. Say you shipped out picks for deadline help because you were gearing up for the playoffs. Then the playoffs are cancelled. Surely it's not fair that you lose those picks?

 

Of course, if the league holds a playoff then that will render the debate moot. Still, intriguing stuff.

[DON]

Seems most or all of GMs would prefer a fall draft, is what I can gleen from Athletics articles on it.

And about the only benefit of June draft would be to simply give NHL some good press during depressing times.

 

 

[dlbalr]

It seems like the GMs got in the ears of the Board of Governors as the early June draft hasn't been announced as anticipated.  Personally, they need to figure out what their return to play plan will be before even entertaining the idea of a draft.  For example, a 5-team lottery doesn't make sense if 24 teams are going to make the playoffs.  Why wouldn't it be a 7-team lottery in that instance?

[DON]

On fact that vast majority of top forwards in NHL are high 1st round draft picks; but is bit different story for picking d-men.

Jonathan Willis

"If you want to dream about the potential of some non-first round prospect, don’t waste your time on forwards. The scouts are all too good at snapping up the talent before the second day of the draft. Dream about defencemen.

Look at it this way: 62 percent of the NHL’s top-six forwards in 2019-20 were first-round picks. Less than half of the NHL’s top-three defencemen were. A non-first rounder climbing to the top half of an NHL forward corps is an outlier; on defence he’s standard."

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

2 hours ago, DON said:

On fact that vast majority of top forwards in NHL are high 1st round draft picks; but is bit different story for picking d-men.

Jonathan Willis

"If you want to dream about the potential of some non-first round prospect, don’t waste your time on forwards. The scouts are all too good at snapping up the talent before the second day of the draft. Dream about defencemen.

Look at it this way: 62 percent of the NHL’s top-six forwards in 2019-20 were first-round picks. Less than half of the NHL’s top-three defencemen were. A non-first rounder climbing to the top half of an NHL forward corps is an outlier; on defence he’s standard."

 

I've noticed that myself over the years. D is a tough position and D-men generally take longer to develop. Any team which manages to crack the code on projecting the development arc of draft-eligible defencemen will have an enormous advantage. (Actually  drafting d-men seems to be a Timmins strength: McDonagh, Subban, Sergachev, now Romanov).

[bbp]

On 5/4/2020 at 8:17 PM, Commandant said:

 

My list has a clear drop off between 8 and 9.  The two swedes are in the top 8.  Lundell is not, his skating is poor.  That can be improved but why take him ahead of guys who have the same skill level and already skate much better.

 

Take whichever one of the top 8 is left from my list

 

Tier 1: lafreniere

Tier 2: 2 and 3

Tier 3: 4-8

Tier 4: 9-12

 

https://Lastwordonhockey.com/2020-nhl-entry-draft-headquarters

 

 

 

I'm curious what makes you rank a few of these dmen above Justin Barron

[DON]

14 minutes ago, bbp said:

I'm curious what makes you rank a few of these dmen above Justin Barron

Well, Barron is ranked  as a late 1st rounder (seen 30th, 31st) and Drysdale is top 10, so obviously some see huge difference in that comparison at least..

[Commandant]

19 minutes ago, bbp said:

I'm curious what makes you rank a few of these dmen above Justin Barron

 

I was much higher on him before the season.  Hes slipped as the year went along.

 

Part of that is not playing for 3 months.

 

Hes a late birthday so hes in his third qmjhl season and older than other prospects.  Despite that, even when healthy his game stagnated between his second and third year.  Im not seeing the improvements i expected.

 

Third while his offence is there, its not at the same level as guys like drysdale who look like Makar.  Its also a bit below guys like sanderson, guhle, schneider as well.  They have passed him when he didnt take the step forward.

[bbp]

1 hour ago, Commandant said:

 

I was much higher on him before the season.  Hes slipped as the year went along.

 

Part of that is not playing for 3 months.

 

Hes a late birthday so hes in his third qmjhl season and older than other prospects.  Despite that, even when healthy his game stagnated between his second and third year.  Im not seeing the improvements i expected.

 

Third while his offence is there, its not at the same level as guys like drysdale who look like Makar.  Its also a bit below guys like sanderson, guhle, schneider as well.  They have passed him when he didnt take the step forward.

Fair. I think that your prospect descriptions on the site would benefit from some more critical comments. Or a section describing what flaws/restrictions they have. Most in the first round seem like glowing reviews but its hard to judge one vs another from them.

[DON]

19. Justin Barron, D, Halifax-QMJHL

Nov. 15, 2001 | 6-foot-2 | 187 pounds

Previous ranking: No. 12

Barron is a player who has been hyped for a few years, playing well for Canada and Halifax. He’s been a divisive player among scouts when healthy. He’s been up and down this season and missed a lot of time due to a blood clot, which makes you concerned about his health. On the ice, Barron is a fantastic skater who can lead a rush, close a gap very well and projects to be able to handle the NHL speed easily. The question on his game among scouts is whether he has enough skill and offensive IQ to move the puck at the higher levels. I think he does, with the understanding that he may not be a top puck-mover on your blue line, but rather someone who is solid defensively and makes enough plays to take even strength shifts in the top-four.

 

Pronman's mid season take.

[Commandant]

53 minutes ago, bbp said:

Fair. I think that your prospect descriptions on the site would benefit from some more critical comments. Or a section describing what flaws/restrictions they have. Most in the first round seem like glowing reviews but its hard to judge one vs another from them.

 

Fair enough

[dlbalr]

A simulator for anyone interested in killing some time: https://draftprospectshockey.com/draftsim

[alfredoh2009]

Some karma hit Detroit and Ottawa yesterday, I am glad that the CH's ghosts may be at work this year pushing for Lafreniere to land in Montreal

 

*Fingers crossed* 🤞🤞🤞 *Fingers crossed*