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2018 NHL Playoff Thread

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

 

The thing with small sample sizes is that they are not projections of future success.  

 

We see it every year... the former playoff hero, who suddenly isn't scoring in the playoffs the next year (Pisani) or the former playoff goat who is now performing (Fleury). 

 

small samples mean nothing towards projecting what those players will do in future and are nowhere close to as good an indicator as the big sample of the regular season where Pacioretty blows Craig Smith out of the water. 

 

Oh right, the big sample which says Pacioretty had a bad season in 17-18 after a terrible playoffs in 2017. That big sample. 

 

My point was I would prefer to pay Smith at his current amount than what Pacioretty will eventually make because it ain't worth what he brings in the season. You seem to be under the assumption that one day Pacioretty's playoff scoring is going to match his regular season scoring because... big sample? He suddenly gets faster? Luck?

 

 

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1 hour ago, illWill said:

List of most goals scored since 2011 heading into this season

 

Ovechkin

Stamkos

Pavelski

Pacioretty

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Craig Smith

 

 

 

What are we talking about here?

 

 

This ^

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1 hour ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

Oh right, the big sample which says Pacioretty had a bad season in 17-18 after a terrible playoffs in 2017. That big sample. 

 

My point was I would prefer to pay Smith at his current amount than what Pacioretty will eventually make because it ain't worth what he brings in the season. You seem to be under the assumption that one day Pacioretty's playoff scoring is going to match his regular season scoring because... big sample? He suddenly gets faster? Luck?

 

 

 

33     14
15     4

39    24
37    23

30    21

35    12

17    25


Career 226 vs 123

Yup basically the same guy.... Pacioretty is a whole 1 year older.

Its almost double the career goals.  Again Craig Smith is a poor man's Pacioretty at about the same level as Desharnais is a poor man's Crosby. 

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3 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

33     14
15     4

39    24
37    23

30    21

35    12

17    25


Career 226 vs 123

Yup basically the same guy.... Pacioretty is a whole 1 year older.

 

So, would you pay $8.5M for Pacioretty knowing he's likely to continue the same playoff production? Or would you prefer someone who makes half that for the production?

 

Are you confident that Pacioretty's production will increase in the playoffs? His regular season production will increase?

 

That was the whole point of the comparison. I'd rather have a Smith at $4.2M than Pacioretty at whatever he gets next summer.

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I've already said I'd trade Pacioretty. 

 

I see no need to get Smith.  He's not better than the wingers we will have even after trading Pacioretty. 

He's meh, and has the same issues of aging. I'm fine going forward with Galchenyuk, Drouin, Gallagher, Lehkonen, Hudon, Scherbak, as the top 9 wingers instead of spending 4 million + on Smith.

Thats not even counting Paul Byron, who I'm also willing to trade. 

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I heard it all now.... Yep its because he got his goatee back the reason why he scored 👌👍🤣

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19 minutes ago, Commandant said:

I've already said I'd trade Pacioretty. 

 

I see no need to get Smith.  He's not better than the wingers we will have even after trading Pacioretty. 

He's meh, and has the same issues of aging. I'm fine going forward with Galchenyuk, Drouin, Gallagher, Lehkonen, Hudon, Scherbak, as the top 9 wingers instead of spending 4 million + on Smith.

Thats not even counting Paul Byron, who I'm also willing to trade. 

If we sign a top UFA like Tavares then there would be little money left to resign Pacioretty if he wants anything more then 6mil.

 

Then again if we can't sign a top UFA then our only trade chip is Pacioretty unless there willing to gave up on galchenyuk and trade him. I for one wouldn't give up on him.

 

So question is who do you want to keep and move forward with assuming we don't sign any ufa's Pacioretty or galchenyuk?

 

For me I would keep galchenyuk put him at center and keep him there.

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Hedman gonna win I reckon.

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Its either Subban or Hedman. Could see hedman since he hasn't won one yet. 

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All those talented Leafs forward, and the only one who is clutch tonight is Tomas Plekanec. 

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Jack Edwards has added to his collection of really dumb calls:

 

Quote

"And they're gonna wave the play dead with the Bruins on the power play, coming into the attacking zone! I mean, I understand if this is a pee-wee game or if there's a bone sticking out of his leg. But that is utterly ridiculous! I mean, the Bruins are on the power play. It's the third period of a playoff game. It's a one-goal game. And you're going to stop the play for a guy who's still conscious?"

 

This was from Game 3 of the series: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ftw/2018/04/19/bruins-commentator-had-a-meltdown-after-the-refs-stopped-play-for-an-injury/111152386/

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Can someone explain to me how Subban is a finalist for the Norris? Real question, not hating. I think a majority of people would agree that he isn't even the best dman on his own team.

 

Among defensemen in the league:

 

*Tied for 8th in scoring

*17th in points per game

*Tied for 19th in +/- 

*Has taken the 7th most penalties 

*Tied for 6th in power play points

*Tied with a million guys with 2 game winning goals

*Tied for 13th in shots per game

*Tied for 35th in shooting percentage

*21st in average time on ice, behind his teammate Josi

 

I can't wait to see the answers

 

 

 

 

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He is the best defenceman on his team
 

- He is given more defensive zone starts than Ozone starts. He's given a bigger percentage of Defensive Zone starts than any defenceman on his team and bigger than both of the other two finalists. He put up over 60 points, despite his deployment as the top shut down pair, while the Josi/Ellis duo is used for more offensive deployment at 5v5

- Despite the fact he is used in a far defensive deployment, he still is a positive Corsi player, and has a positive relative Corsi as well. 

- Despite the fact he is used in that defensive deployment, he is neck and neck with all the other defence in points... yes he's 8th, but there is very little separation from 1st to 8th... He's 9 points off John Carlson, but just 4 points off Hedman and 3 on Doughty.

- His d-zone starts is, by a big margin, the highest of any of the top 15 defencemen in scoring.

 

When you are looking at shooting percentage, plus/minus, etc... you are looking at the wrong stats.... 

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To add, Subban and Hedman lead defencemen in primary points per game (goals+primary assist) which should give you a clearer picture of why he's top three.

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4 minutes ago, Commandant said:

He is the best defenceman on his team
 

- He is given more defensive zone starts than Ozone starts.  He put up over 60 points, despite his deployment as the top shut down pair, while the Josi/Ellis duo is used for more offensive deployment at 5v5

- Despite this defensive deployment, he still is a positive Corsi player, and has a positive relative Corsi as well. 

 

When you are looking at shooting percentage, plus/minus, etc... you are looking at the wrong stats.... 

 

Okay, we are debating about whether Subban is the best defenseman on his own team, we should be talking Norris nomination. Do you think Subban is worthy of a nomination? 

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19 minutes ago, illWill said:

 

Okay, we are debating about whether Subban is the best defenseman on his own team, we should be talking Norris nomination. Do you think Subban is worthy of a nomination? 

When the other d man is Josi, that’s very high praise.

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22 minutes ago, illWill said:

 

Okay, we are debating about whether Subban is the best defenseman on his own team, we should be talking Norris nomination. Do you think Subban is worthy of a nomination? 

 

Did you read my entire post?

 

"- He is given more defensive zone starts than Ozone starts. He's given a bigger percentage of Defensive Zone starts than any defenceman on his team and bigger than both of the other two finalists. He put up over 60 points, despite his deployment as the top shut down pair, while the Josi/Ellis duo is used for more offensive deployment at 5v5

- Despite the fact he is used in a far defensive deployment, he still is a positive Corsi player, and has a positive relative Corsi as well. 

- Despite the fact he is used in that defensive deployment, he is neck and neck with all the other defence in points... yes he's 8th, but there is very little separation from 1st to 8th... He's 9 points off John Carlson, but just 4 points off Hedman and 3 on Doughty.

- His d-zone starts is, by a big margin, the highest of any of the top 15 defencemen in scoring."

All of that goes to why he is a deserving nominee.... 

 

Add in the fact that he leads the league (tied with Hedman) in Primary points as MOLG pointed out.... and yes, he deserves the nomination. 

 

I still think Hedman wins the award. 

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11 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Did you read my entire post?

 

"- He is given more defensive zone starts than Ozone starts. He's given a bigger percentage of Defensive Zone starts than any defenceman on his team and bigger than both of the other two finalists. He put up over 60 points, despite his deployment as the top shut down pair, while the Josi/Ellis duo is used for more offensive deployment at 5v5

- Despite the fact he is used in a far defensive deployment, he still is a positive Corsi player, and has a positive relative Corsi as well. 

- Despite the fact he is used in that defensive deployment, he is neck and neck with all the other defence in points... yes he's 8th, but there is very little separation from 1st to 8th... He's 9 points off John Carlson, but just 4 points off Hedman and 3 on Doughty.

- His d-zone starts is, by a big margin, the highest of any of the top 15 defencemen in scoring."

All of that goes to why he is a deserving nominee.... 

 

Add in the fact that he leads the league (tied with Hedman) in Primary points as MOLG pointed out.... and yes, he deserves the nomination. 

 

I still think Hedman wins the award. 

 

Subban won't win, unfortunately, but how anyone can deny he's a worthy nominee is beyond me.

 

Your analysis is excellent. I always said Subban's supposedly unreliable defensive play was grossly exaggerated; in fact he is awesome in his own zone and always was (he just used to indulge in 'high risk' plays now and then, which, as I maintained at the time, usually weren't truly high risk, because he was superb at recovering from his mistakes. Otherwise put, most of these plays were 'high risk' for David Schlemko, not PK Subban). When I watch NASH games I see PK routinely controlling and managing the play in ways that no defenceman on our team can dream of doing. And no this is not a slag on Weber, but that kind of overall game-management is not really what Weber provides (even though it's what the Habs desperately need). PK has matured into a 'general' out there, exactly what the Habs claimed they wanted him to be in the first place.

 

Roman Josi: 38th overall pick. PK Subban: 43rd overall pick.

 

That's the kind of drafting you have to have if you aren't a 'tanking' franchise.

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7 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Subban won't win, unfortunately, but how anyone can deny he's a worthy nominee is beyond me.

 

Your analysis is excellent. I always said Subban's supposedly unreliable defensive play was grossly exaggerated; in fact he is awesome in his own zone and always was (he just used to indulge in 'high risk' plays now and then, which, as I maintained at the time, usually weren't truly high risk, because he was superb at recovering from his mistakes. Otherwise put, most of these plays were 'high risk' for David Schlemko, not PK Subban). When I watch NASH games I see PK routinely controlling and managing the play in ways that no defenceman on our team can dream of doing. And no this is not a slag on Weber, but that kind of overall game-management is not really what Weber provides (even though it's what the Habs desperately need). PK has matured into a 'general' out there, exactly what the Habs claimed they wanted him to be in the first place.

 

Roman Josi: 38th overall pick. PK Subban: 43rd overall pick.

 

That's the kind of drafting you have to have if you aren't a 'tanking' franchise.

Yes, and we drafted Subban? 

 

My Norris votes would have gone to John Carlson, Victor Hedman and Seth Jones this season. Carlson isn’t as good defensively as many others but not many people would have picked him to be the best scoring defenseman. I thought Jones had a great year and Columbus’ success owes a lot to him as well.

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3 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Yes, and we drafted Subban? 

 

 

 

Ya think? :lol: But franchise defencemen drafted in the second round. That's the sort of thing you need, and the sort of thing we have not seen in the MB era.

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9 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Ya think? :lol: But franchise defencemen drafted in the second round. That's the sort of thing you need, and the sort of thing we have not seen in the MB era.

In MB's era some 2nd drafts were traded for Vanek, Petry and A.Shaw 

The other 2nds in the system are progressing well: Lehks, DLR, Ikhonen, etc

 

I don't think short-term playoff tweaks have been more of an issue than drafting

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24 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Yes, and we drafted Subban? 

 

My Norris votes would have gone to John Carlson, Victor Hedman and Seth Jones this season. Carlson isn’t as good defensively as many others but not many people would have picked him to be the best scoring defenseman. I thought Jones had a great year and Columbus’ success owes a lot to him as well.

 

I would have went Hedman/Subban/Jones. Jones is developing superbly and I think he faces greater challenges in the Metro than Doughty in the Pacific. I'm biased for Subban and his incredible offensive input despite high D zone starts but he slipped in March and April. Hedman was more steady. If Jones improves any more the award is his for years to come.

 

Carlson... let's just say he's riding high from no longer being latched onto Alzner. He was very good and the gap between 1st and 6th isn't big to me. Tight race. I think no Barkov in the Selke race was a bigger snub but whatever this isn't the Academy Awards where we allow eight nominees.

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46 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Yes, and we drafted Subban? 

 

My Norris votes would have gone to John Carlson, Victor Hedman and Seth Jones this season. Carlson isn’t as good defensively as many others but not many people would have picked him to be the best scoring defenseman. I thought Jones had a great year and Columbus’ success owes a lot to him as well.

 

Meh... he still has less than 70 points.  Big deal

 

If he was a 90 point defenceman it would matter. That he's the top scoring defencemen.  

 

When there is such little separation in points, i can't give Carlsson a nomination when his defensive game is clearly inferior to guys who he beat by a point or two. Add in the fact that Hedman and Subban have more primary points, and he's getting the extra second assist a lot of the time, and I really don't care that he has a single digit point lead on the three nominees. 

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Kinda funny to me that Subban and Weber can now share war stories over a pint on being anchored down by Emelin but rising above it to get in the Norris conversation.

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