Evaluating Our Assets

[BTH]

I think it was a year or two ago that KoZed made a thread like this but things change.

Let's rate our players' value to our team and by that judge who is really in our future plans and can be let go.

5 stars - Absolutely essential to the team's success

4 stars - Core player; part of the team's nucleus

3 stars - Complementary player; useful, but replaceable

2 stars - Depth player; worth keeping as long as they play a limited role

1 stars - Useless player; brings nothing to the table and has no place on our roster

BOMB - This guy NEEDS to go!

Koivu - ***** - Our beloved captain, face of the franchise, our top point-producer, a leader, a competitor and a well-rounded center on a team that lacks top talent down the middle. Without him: our team has serious problems at center, with scoring and with leadership.

Higgins - ***** - A two-way forward with 40-goal potential. A monster all over the ice who does it all. Without him: our team has serious problems at LW, with scoring, with work ethic, with leadership and with 5-on-5 play.

Markov - ***** - Arguably our best player, he has carried the defence on his back for years now. He is an elite defenceman at both ends of the ice. Without him: our defence goes back to one of the worst in the league, our PP drops from 1st overall, we no longer have the talent to compete at a high level.

Plekanec - **** - A great two-way center who hits, plays hard, forechecks, plays defence and does everything that is asked of him. Possibly the most complete player on the team. Without him: we lack scoring at center, our 5-on-5 play suffers, we lose a big part of our transition game and Kovalev might stop producing.

Kovalev - **** - The most talented player on the team; provides leadership, teachers his young linemates; is a tremendous PP player; is one of our best offensive contributors; draws a lot of attention from other teams' defences. Without him: serious scoring problems, our PP drops from 1st overall, guys like Plekanec and Kostitsyn might not develop as well, we have serious RW problems.

Huet - **** - Our #1 goaltender who steals the occasional game but battles with injury and consistency. Without him: Price is rushed into the fire, our playoff hopes are hurt dramatically, our good-but-not-great defence might look worse.

Hamrlik - **** - A steady presence on the blueline; quietly effective; the major reason why our team is better than it was last year. Without him: Our defence is terrible, our 5-on-5 play is hurt dramatically and a lot more shots get through to Huet.

Komisarek - **** - Our #2/3 defenceman; our biggest physical presence on the team. Without him: we get bullied around down low and can not beat teams with big forwards (Toronto), our PK suffers.

Kostitsyn - **** - Has great chemistry with Plekanec and is one of the few players that can do anything 5-on-5. Without him: Plekanec's production tails off, team lacks offensively creative players; we lose a good chunk of depth as guys like Latendresse and Grabovski have to assume roles they may not be ready for.

Price - **** - Future franchise player; is currently good enough for us to rest Huet every now and then; is great at puckhandling which helps our transition game; gives our players confidence; brings friendly competition to the goaltending position. Without him: we have to keep Huet until he retires and have him share time with Halak, our team never gets a franchise player and their Cup hopes may be set back by years.

Latendresse - *** - I think he has the potential to score 40 goals but he hasn't tapped into much of it yet so I will not call him a core player just yet. Price, however, has already showed us that he is not a bust, which is why I counted him as a part of our core. Without him: we lack physical presence and are very short on big forwards.

Streit - *** - A good player for the PP and an all-round good guy to have on your team but he is not irreplaceable, especially since we have a lot of defenceman who are good at passing the puck. Without him: our PP suffers a little bit, we lose some speed and are forced to play both Bouillon and Gorges every game.

Ryder - *** - One of our best goalscorers; isn't well-rounded enough, consistant enough or good enough at what he does to be a permanent part of our core. Without him: Latendresse is promoted to the top line and our bottom lines suffer; we lose one of our only proven scorers; we have to find someone who else who clicks with Higgins and Koivu.

Brisebois - *** - A good offensive defenceman with a right shot who works the PP well and is a slick passer. Without him: we lose a part of our transition game, our PP loses some creativity, we have trouble getting a good first pass out of our zone and get boxed in.

Smolinski - *** - Very good on the penalty kill, very smart and basically a perfect thirdliner. Despite his usual numbers, he is not good enough offensively to be a core third line center as Plekanec would be if he were down there). Without him: our PK suffers, 5-on-5 play suffers, we lose experience and leadership, Chipchura, Grabovski and Lapierre are rushed into roles they may not be ready for.

Dandenault - *** - Has emerged as a very good checking winger. He's very fast, a good forechecker, a hardworker and he can cause trouble for the other teams defenceman. Without him: all 12 of our remaining forwards are given a permanent spot on the roster, eliminating the benefits of internal competition, we lose speed and experience.

Begin - ** - A great guy to have around but not a guy who should be counted on as more than a 4th liner and PKer. Without him: our PK suffers dramatically, we have problems blocking shots, Huet gets worn-out quicker, we are an easier team to play against, we lack leadership and character.

Kostopoulos - ** - Works well on the fourth line but doesn't have the offensive talent to play on a higher line. Without him: we don't have many guys who stand up for their teammates, our dressing room takes a hit and possibly our PK.

Gorges - ** - Due to his salary and age he can remain on the team as a depth defenceman or maybe even a #6, but he really doesn't provide anything we don't already have. Without him: we are the same team but with a bit less D depth.

Bouillon - *½ - He brings a physical edge to the table but he can still easily be dealt out of Montreal if ever we get the chance to trade him. Without him: we are the same team, with less depth on defence.

Grabovski - *½ - I don't want to say he has no place on our team because he is a hardworker, a fast skater, has offensive potential and he even hits - but - he doesn't really bring anything to the table that other players like Dandenault don't, not unless his offensive game suddenly breaks out. He deserves a spot on the team, but not as a core player, only as additional offence from the bottom lines. Without him: our team is exactly the same except we no longer have the option of forcing players to work because they'll be replaced by a guy who will. On the other hand, Lapierre would be just that.

Murray - * - I have nothing against him but we really have no use for him anymore. Without him: we are the same team with slightly less forward depth.

So judging by this, Higgins, Koivu, Kovalev, Plekanec, Kostitsyn, Hamrlik, Markov, Komisarek, Huet and Price are our 10 players that we should build around while the rest of the guys are trying to gel into the core.

[PMAC]

Nice work. An excellent and well considered analysis.

The only point I would quibble with is Grabovski. I don't think that he has played enough to rated. His ranking might be fair for now, but it does not reflect his potential, IMHO

GO :hlogo: GO

[alexstream]

I actually think that the only reason to our early success has all to do with our Defense:

Komi is now top 5 defensive dman in the league, I'm not shy to mention his name in the same sentence as Chris Phillips.

Markov is top 5 offensive dman in the league, I have no trouble seeing him at the all star game over a star like Thomas Kaberle.

Hamrlik has always been a favorite of mine (back in the days where he was lodging 32 minutes or so per game along with Aucoin in NYISL), IMO he represented the "ultimate balanced dman". He's less talented offensively than markov and less physical / defensive than Komo... but if one or the other is absent, he IS the perfect replacement. He is head and shoulder above Souray... and now that I have seen him play for 15 games or so, he's also way above Souray offensively too!!! (Souray was "cheating" to get his points... he was getting him team in trouble only to get the personal stats on the personal stats sheet). Hamrlik is way more conservative, but has 50 X the passing skills Souray has and 100 X his defensive awareness, mobility and anticipation / sense of the game.

These 3's inspired play lead up to a better transition game and to the team spending less time in our zone.

So, I'd give 6 * over 5 to Komo and Markov and 5.5 over 5 to Hamrlik

Then, because they play like they should, 5 to both of Koivu and Kovalev.

Higgins, IMO should get a 6 too... but he's hitting the posts too much. a 5 to him too.

4.5 to Plekanec

4 to lats, kost, huet, price, streit, brisebois,

3.5 to smokes, dandy

3 to kostopoulet

2 to ryder, begin

0 to bouillon, gorges,

[Cataclaw]

Interesting analysis, BTH.

I agree with most of your points, except i'd see Kostitsyn down 1 point and Bégin up one. Bouillon, as of late, seems like a 0.5 at best, but i'm sure he'll bounce back at least partially (let's hope).

I'd also rate Komisarek a 4.5 (and an eventual 5)

[JoeLassister]

Interesting analysis, BTH.

I agree with most of your points, except i'd see Kostitsyn down 1 point and Bégin up one. Bouillon, as of late, seems like a 0.5 at best, but i'm sure he'll bounce back at least partially (let's hope).

I'd also rate Komisarek a 4.5 (and an eventual 5)

I'm with you for Bégin because of his PK skills and leadership (heard he stands up in the locker room and he always give 100%)

But for Kostitsyn, I start to really like this kid, i'd stick with 4*.

[JMMR]

But for Begin guys you have to look at his contract he makes a tad too much but I guess that would be Gaineys fault.

[ShortHanded]

cool BTH, but where's Chipper? Did you forget him or do you just figure you havent' seen him enough to analyse?

[Cataclaw]

I'd put Chips at N/A for now, it's too early. However the future looks promising!

[Habsfan]

But for Begin guys you have to look at his contract he makes a tad too much but I guess that would be Gaineys fault.

true that Bégin makes 1.2 million this year, but he only made 600,000 in the first year of his contract. The average salary for bégin over the 3 year period of his contract is 850,000$(and that's what ends up counting on the salary cap), which in today's NHL, is reasonable!

[ShortHanded]

I'd put Chips at N/A for now, it's too early. However the future looks promising!

well if chipper's NA, so's Grabovski...

[les_glorieux]

well if chipper's NA, so's Grabovski...

And what about Bulis?

[JMMR]

And what about Bulis?

He is in europe I thought.

[brobin]

This won't be popular, but I don't think there is a 5 star guy on this team.

Koivu is a great guy but is not a top end number one center. He could be upgraded and we would have more success. Note I am not saying trade him.

Higgins is an awesome player, but I don't see him being in the top 10 in the league any time soon.

To me, a 5 star guy is like Crosby. The guy you are building around. The kind of guy where you can't really trade him for value because there is no one worth trading him for. A guy who makes or breaks your team. Koivu is no longer the guy we are building around. Him being out top point getter is a knock on this team, of which even Koivu agrees. He wanted them to bring in a number 1 center too.

I would say we have a lot of 4 star guys however, perhaps more then most teams.

The one guy on this team who MAY become a 5 star guy is Carey Price. If he turns into the next Roy / Brodeur, he could easily be consider the key to the teams success. The "untradable" guy. (not by untradable, I mean a good trade. We managed to trade Roy and Boston managed to trade Thorton... )

[Wamsley01]

This won't be popular, but I don't think there is a 5 star guy on this team.

Koivu is a great guy but is not a top end number one center. He could be upgraded and we would have more success. Note I am not saying trade him.

Higgins is an awesome player, but I don't see him being in the top 10 in the league any time soon.

To me, a 5 star guy is like Crosby. The guy you are building around. The kind of guy where you can't really trade him for value because there is no one worth trading him for. A guy who makes or breaks your team. Koivu is no longer the guy we are building around. Him being out top point getter is a knock on this team, of which even Koivu agrees. He wanted them to bring in a number 1 center too.

I would say we have a lot of 4 star guys however, perhaps more then most teams.

The one guy on this team who MAY become a 5 star guy is Carey Price. If he turns into the next Roy / Brodeur, he could easily be consider the key to the teams success. The "untradable" guy. (not by untradable, I mean a good trade. We managed to trade Roy and Boston managed to trade Thorton... )

That is not how the system was rated though.

5 stars was assigned to guys who were essential to the teams success.

5 stars - Absolutely essential to the team's success

4 stars - Core player; part of the team's nucleus

3 stars - Complementary player; useful, but replaceable

2 stars - Depth player; worth keeping as long as they play a limited role

1 stars - Useless player; brings nothing to the table and has no place on our roster

BOMB - This guy NEEDS to go!

I think there are players on this roster that are essential to the success. Markov right now is playing like a Top 10 defenceman in the league. That is essential to our early season success. He is irreplaceable right now.

That by BTH's post is a 5 Star player

[Cataclaw]

Koivu is a great guy but is not a top end number one center.

Now this pisses me off. I get angry whenever i hear someone say Koivu is not a number one center. Give me a break.

Koivu is a 1st line center. While recovering from a critical eye injury, he still pulled off a personal best 76 pt season (adjusted over 81 games), all the while handling his leadership and media obligations with skill and class. I would like to point out that Koivu's previous season is statistically comparable to a Mike Modano or Mats Sundin season. He exceeds Chris Drury and even comes within 5-10 pts of a Rod Brind'Amour season.

He isn't perfect, and i'm not denying more depth down the middle wouldn't be great for the team, but don't belittle Koivu by calling him a 2nd line center either. That's just bs.

Edited November 12, 2007 by Cataclaw

[Wamsley01]

Now this pisses me off. I get angry whenever i hear someone say Koivu is not a number one center. Give me a break.

Koivu is a 1st line center. While recovering from a critical eye injury, he still pulled off a personal best 76 pt season (adjusted over 81 games), all the while handling his leadership and media obligations with skill and class. I would like to point out that Koivu's previous season is statistically comparable to a Mike Modano or Mats Sundin season. He exceeds Chris Drury and even comes within 5-10 pts of a Rod Brind'Amour season.

He isn't perfect, and i'm not denying more depth down the middle wouldn't be great for the team, but don't belittle Koivu by calling him a 2nd line center either. That's just bs.

I agree. There are 30 teams in the league. To call Koivu a 2nd line center would imply that he is no better than 30 other centers in the league. If you want to make the argument that Saku is not a good enough center to win a Stanley Cup that is one thing (which I disagree) but he is most definitely a 1st line center in the NHL.

[Makh2o]

If you think that Grabovski doesn't bring anything to the table that Dandenault doesn't, then you haven't been watching very closely. Although he's much smaller, his offensive creativity and ability to see the play develop far outways Dandenaults ability to get to the puck first, then toss it away...

He's small, he gets knocked down, but he always gets up, and as one of my old coaches said, he passes to advantage, meaning when he intentionally moves the puck, it's to put it in a better position than it currently is... he never just throws it away. And players like that on our 3rd and 4th lines in the past few years have been rare.

Give the kid credit. It's his first year in the NHL, and he's undersized. All things considered, he's doing pretty damn well.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

I agree with every thing you said BTH...

Every player you reported on is, well, perfect. I don't know what else to say!

[brobin]

Now this pisses me off. I get angry whenever i hear someone say Koivu is not a number one center. Give me a break.

Koivu is a 1st line center. While recovering from a critical eye injury, he still pulled off a personal best 76 pt season (adjusted over 81 games), all the while handling his leadership and media obligations with skill and class. I would like to point out that Koivu's previous season is statistically comparable to a Mike Modano or Mats Sundin season. He exceeds Chris Drury and even comes within 5-10 pts of a Rod Brind'Amour season.

He isn't perfect, and i'm not denying more depth down the middle wouldn't be great for the team, but don't belittle Koivu by calling him a 2nd line center either. That's just bs.

First, read carefully. I said "Top End Number One Center".

Second. Facts are facts. Go compare his offensive production to the top 20 number 1 centers in this league. He was 19th in total production, lower in PPG when games played are accounted for. Last year was one of his top output years. He typically is not even on the list of top 30 centers. His defensive play last year was also terrible. Even better, look at the last 3 years on average...

Leadership and media handling have nothing to do with his qualifications as a top center. They are why he is our captain. I don't recall suggesting he was not a great Captain.

Modano is not considered a number one center anymore. Ribs is the top guy for Dallas right now (ouch!). I don't see Drury as a number one center either. Sundin had a bad year last year, and still outperformed Koivu in PPG. He doesn't have any better line mates then Koivu, in fact, he has worse linemates.

Please note that Koivu wanted Briere to come to the Habs. Do you think he was going to have Briere be our number 2 center?

Gainey was after a top line center. Hmmm...

Don't take this personally, but you have to face the facts that Koivu is at best a 1b center or a top end number 2 center. He would still be the team captain, that was never in question.

[brobin]

One more thing.. there are lots of teams that are missing a top number one center. For the team to move forward, we need to upgrade, imo. Either we get a top 10 center, or we get another center as good as Koivu so that we have a 1a 1b combo.

[brobin]

I agree. There are 30 teams in the league. To call Koivu a 2nd line center would imply that he is no better than 30 other centers in the league. If you want to make the argument that Saku is not a good enough center to win a Stanley Cup that is one thing (which I disagree) but he is most definitely a 1st line center in the NHL.

Last year he was 19th and that was his career best. The year before he was 31st. This year he is 28th (so far).

He is a first line center on a team bubble team. He would be the 2nd line center on the top 10 teams in this league.

And again, I didn't call him a second line center, I said he was not a top end 1st line center.

[Wamsley01]

Last year he was 19th and that was his career best. The year before he was 31st. This year he is 28th (so far).

He is a first line center on a team bubble team. He would be the 2nd line center on the top 10 teams in this league.

And again, I didn't call him a second line center, I said he was not a top end 1st line center.

If every player was judged on their production alone then Vaclav Prospal, Matt Cullen, Daymond Langkow, Nik Antropov, Robert Lang, Mike Ribeiro, Jason Williams, Ryan Getzlaf, David Legwand and Mike Comrie would all rate higher as Centers than Koivu this season.

If Gainey called all those GMs and made a straight up offer of Koivu for any of them how many GMs do you think say no thank you? I don't care about points, it is not Fantasy hockey.

I would take the following guys straight up for Koivu (this is not a proposed deal)

Age, salary and production are the factors

Crosby

Malkin

Lecavalier

Stastny

Staal

Jokinen

Thornton

Datsyuk

Kopitar

Toews

Spezza

Parise

All the other guys are either older, make to much or do not offer the same intangibles that Koivu brings to this club. I think you can win the Cup with Koivu as your number 1, and I think he is a top 20 center. IMO

Edited November 12, 2007 by Wamsley01

[brobin]

Its not all about points, but over time it is telling. A number one lines should consistently produce offense. They should also be reasonable defensively.

I don't think we can win the cup with Koivu as our number one center anymore, unless we had another Koivu level guy as the 1a/1b thing. I do think Koivu would be a key guy for this team, but he doesn't need to be number 1 to do it. Leadership, grit, and inspiration can come from a 1b or number 2 center. I don't want to trade Koivu for one of those guys, I want Koivu AND one of those guys. Call me greedy.

You made a damn nice list of guys nobody would trade straight up for Koivu.

[BTH]

cool BTH, but where's Chipper? Did you forget him or do you just figure you havent' seen him enough to analyse?

I forgot all about him - I meant to have every player. I would give him 3 stars at the moment though I believe he will grow into our core as he becomes our #3 center.

As for Koivu, he is a #1 center in this league. He is not an elite center, but he is a first liner and it IS possible to win with a Koivu-Plekanec combo, as long as they have a very good team surrounding them. Obviously, there are other teams like San Jose (Thornton-Marleau), Ottawa (Spezza-Vermette-Fisher), Philly (Briere, Carter, Richards) etc that are a lot stronger down the middle but I was not aware that the top 2 centers on a team were the only 2 players that had any connection to a team's success. With great goaltending, special teams, work ethic and chemistry our team can still win a Cup with this core.

In fact, I would even argue that neither Koivu or Plekanec are the main weapons on their line. If anything, we should be comparing Higgins and Kovalev to other teams' biggest threat on each of the top two lines.

[Wamsley01]

Its not all about points, but over time it is telling. A number one lines should consistently produce offense. They should also be reasonable defensively.

I don't think we can win the cup with Koivu as our number one center anymore, unless we had another Koivu level guy as the 1a/1b thing. I do think Koivu would be a key guy for this team, but he doesn't need to be number 1 to do it. Leadership, grit, and inspiration can come from a 1b or number 2 center. I don't want to trade Koivu for one of those guys, I want Koivu AND one of those guys. Call me greedy.

You made a damn nice list of guys nobody would trade straight up for Koivu.

I understand what you are saying. But my point of view is that Gainey is building this team like the Devils and Stars.

Gomez lead the Devils with 70 points in NJ 2000 Cup run. They again won the Cup in 2003 with Gomez and 50 points. Modano had only 81 points in the Stars 1999 Cup run.

So I think they can win it with Koivu as a number 1. When this team wins it all, it will be defense with timely scoring and All-Star goaltending.