DON Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 Subban also takes a lot more penalties than Weber and considering Shea style I think that pretty telling and makes Weber the more safer defender. In the end you always want your best player on the ice against the top comp which Weber is on a continual bases and more often in the defending zone, which makes sense his possession stats would take a hit. Also, Subban must of led the league in diving penalties didn't he? Which again goes to character, some will brush off as irrelevant as him leading NHL in turnovers forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 In the end you always want your best player on the ice against the top comp which Weber is on a continual bases and more often in the defending zone, which makes sense his possession stats would take a hit. His possession stats take a hit for three reasons: 1. Playing a lot of defensive shifts with Paul Gaustad on the ice 2. Blocking a lot of shots with Roman Josi, as the two block way more shots than they should 3. Making short passes out of his zone instead of carrying the puck because he doesn't have the speed/creativity to regularly enter the offensive zone with the puck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott462 Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 His possession stats take a hit for three reasons: 1. Playing a lot of defensive shifts with Paul Gaustad on the ice 2. Blocking a lot of shots with Roman Josi, as the two block way more shots than they should 3. Making short passes out of his zone instead of carrying the puck because he doesn't have the speed/creativity to regularly enter the offensive zone with the puck 2. Weber and Josi also play some of the toughest minutes in the NHL and consistently face the other teams top forwards on a daily basis http://predators.nhl.com/club/blogpostprint.htm?id=36127 3. Would it make sense that Weber was told to retrieve the puck in the defencive end and get it to Josi who is a great puck mover. It seems like that was the plan the coach implemented and Weber was following it. I am sure he is capable of carrying the puck but was told to refer more to Josi to do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 Whats more important. A turnover that doesn't lead to a shot on goal against your team. Or not having possession of the puck and giving up more scoring chances as a result? To argue that the guy who gives up way more scoring chances is a better defender because he doesn't have the turnovers is missing the forest for for the trees. Its taking style over substance. I'll take substance (preventing shots and scoring chances) every time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 Re tough minutes Does Weber face the other team's top line? Yes, of course. What line do you think Subban is regularly deployed against? The usage/role is basically the same.... and Subban prevents more shots and scoring chances.... As for goals against, when you spend the entire season playing in front of the worst goaltending tandem in the league and still give up less goals against... well then there goes that theory. The stats are out there, they don't lie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott462 Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 (edited) I think the point is Subban gets far more offensive zone starts and doesn't have a Guastad that will of course make his Corsi look a lot better. I would like to know the stats that Subban prevents more scoring chance than the Weber Josi line. I'm generally interested Edited August 6, 2016 by Scott462 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 There are 38 pages of thread... there were stats posted including both a HERO chart and a list that showed prevention of high danger scoring chances (a Hextally chart) earlier in the thread. I'm not going through it to find both. You are free to do so, but the numbers are all posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott462 Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 10-4 I am just wondering if they are in the same context of Weber and Josi's responsibilities and the fact that they were one of the duo's that played the hardest minutes in the NHL for defencemen. It's great to have stats and analytics but if they are not in the right context they can be blown out of proportion. All I'm saying Thanks though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCHabnut Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 Weber was top pairing. Subban is top pairing I'm sure his competition is extremely similar. I did like the point about 600 less touches in 14 less games and almost the same points in an off year. I thought it was pretty interesting. I am not one of the guys saying weber is better. He is not. We will miss Subban when the team is hemmed in and there's nobody to get the puck out. We will miss him when Pacioretty scores less goals because subban found him with a beauty stretch pass. I really think we will miss a lot about his game. He is the better player. I do find some upside in this trade though. More goals on the pp, less drama, and some physicality will not hurt the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 They are so dramatically different, as in not even close, that the usage doesn't make much difference. The zone starts and competition do not make up for the dramatic differences seen in that HERO chart between the two players A slight increase in D-Zone starts doesn't account for the massive difference in shots against numbers.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 They are so dramatically different, as in not even close, that the usage doesn't make much difference. The zone starts and competition do not make up for the dramatic differences seen in that HERO chart between the two players A slight increase in D-Zone starts doesn't account for the massive difference in shots against numbers.... 'HERO' chart? Are you serious? And which stat(s) points to why Subban came in 14th in Norris trophy voting this past season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott462 Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 (edited) They are so dramatically different, as in not even close, that the usage doesn't make much difference. The zone starts and competition do not make up for the dramatic differences seen in that HERO chart between the two players A slight increase in D-Zone starts doesn't account for the massive difference in shots against numbers.... They are different but how can you honestly say that zone starts snd competition do not factor into it? I honestly don't think that's fair, then you put into the fact that Weber and Subban were used in drastically different ways by their teams this of course will affect the stats.I think this is the main problem I have with the analytics without context that a lot of people are running with. Look at the two division and right away you can say that Nashville plays in one of the hardest if not the hardest division in the NHL and Montreal probably the weakest. You factor in the top forwards that Weber goes up against more often like Kane and toews vs Kadri and JVR, I would say it's a lot easier to suppress Torontos shots than Chicagos. Also the game plan the coaches use Weber in a shut down defensive role instead of Subban in a more offensive one. This will affect numbers. Edited August 7, 2016 by Scott462 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 'HERO' chart? Are you serious? And which stat(s) points to why Subban came in 14th in Norris trophy voting this past season? Horizontal Evaluative Rankings Optic Hero Yes I'm dead serious about using a graph which plots the advanced stats in various categories and compares the two players head to head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 They are different but how can you honestly say that zone starts snd competition do not factor into it? I honestly don't think that's fair, then you put into the fact that Weber and Subban were used in drastically different ways by their teams this of course will affect the stats. I think this is the main problem I have with the analytics without context that a lot of people are running with. Look at the two division and right away you can say that Nashville plays in one of the hardest if not the hardest division in the NHL and Montreal probably the weakest. You factor in the top forwards that Weber goes up against more often like Kane and toews vs Kadri and JVR, I would say it's a lot easier to suppress Torontos shots than Chicagos. Also the game plan the coaches use Weber in a shut down defensive role instead of Subban in a more offensive one. This will affect numbers. 1) Competition is virtually the same. There is no difference.... Yes Kane played Kadri and Toews (2 or 3x more than Subban a year), but lets look at the eastern conference, who subban played more.... Metro (subban plays each 1x more) Crosby, Ovechkin, Tavares, Malkin, Kessel.... Atlantic (2x more) - Stamkos... at the end of the day there is no difference. And yes Toronto is easier than Chicago.... but thats a disengenous comparison to take the worst team in the league and compare them to the three time champs in the last 7 years. Chicago also has Arizona in their division, and Colorado (one of the worst possession teams in hockey)... compare them to tampa, or to the metro teams in Pittsburgh, Washington etc... 2) There are Zone Start Adjusted numbers. Subban is still miles ahead. You also ignore talk about Zone starts as if they are hugely disproportionate.... Shea Weber 2015-16 Offensive Zone 31.9 Defensive Zone 30.7 Neutral Zone 37.4 P.K. Subban Offensive Zone 32.8% Defensive Zone 32.1% Neutral Zone 35.8 PK actually took a greater percentage of Defensive zone starts (1.4% greater), a greater percentage of Ozone starts (0.9%) and less neutral zone starts (1.8%) Some other reading. On PK Subbans riskiness http://canucksarmy.com/2014/2/17/the-reports-of-p-k-subban-s-demise-have-been-greatly-exaggerated On Weber and Zone Starts http://hockeyanalysis.com/2015/03/21/zone-starts-and-impact-on-players-statistics/ http://hockeyanalysis.com/2015/03/16/zone-starts-corsi-and-the-percentages/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott462 Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 Ok thats metro but I'm talking about their own divisions and who they play more often during the season. I personally think Nashville is in the harder division which makes sense that they would face harder comp and like I said you factor in how each team used both Weber and Subban this will affect the numbers. By chance did you read the link I posted? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 Ok thats metro but I'm talking about their own divisions and who they play more often during the season. I personally think Nashville is in the harder division which makes sense that they would face harder comp and like I said you factor in how each team used both Weber and Subban this will affect the numbers. By chance did you read the link I posted? Yes, and I posted responses to it. I also posted stats. Did you read the stats? Even if the guy who wrote the piece that zone starts are largely irrelevant is wrong... ... PK subban still took a greater percentage of Dzone draws than Shea Weber... so the argument that PK got easier minutes is kinda moot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 Also the Western Conference might be tougher in terms of physical play, but the fact remains that 15 of the top 30 scorers in the NHL came from the East, and 15 came from the West. That doesn't really prove that the competition for preventing scoring is harder in the west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 7 of the top 30 scorers play in the Central division (but one is Filip Forsberg) so Weber faces 6. 7 of the top 30 scorers play in the Atlantic division (but one is Max Pacioretty) so Subban faces 6. The difference is also 2-3 games a year per player.... so even if it was a difference, its statistically insignificant over 82 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott462 Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 Hmm that is interesting. I will admit I am not as good as understanding the stats at such a deep level as you commandant, I am actually quite amateurish if I be honest. I just feel a lot of statics need to be put in the right context and maybe someone else can argue that point better than I can. I also appreciate the links and stats provided to prove your points. I personally think that Weber faced a higher level of comp over the span of the year and like I said was used in a different way. And just to put this out there I am not trying to discredit Subban I don't think I have ever done that I just don't want people to get confused. I just think Weber is not getting the fair treatment it seems more often people are going to great lengths to discredit him instead of being fair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 Horizontal Evaluative Rankings Optic Hero Yes I'm dead serious about using a graph which plots the advanced stats in various categories and compares the two players head to head. Sure Ben, just my eyes glaze over when anyone starts quoting stats like "HERO' or some other goofy name ..this is quite trivial entertainment and that stuff is a bit too much detail for me to care about (prefer to put my head back in the sand), unless it would somehow help me win betting on the games or series...does it allow that? No didnt think so, because maybe there are just way too many variables and intangibles in sports. (Baseball is bad enough with their endless and exceedingly boring stats they toss out every 2 seconds of a game...mind numbing stuff.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 Hmm that is interesting. I will admit I am not as good as understanding the stats at such a deep level as you commandant, I am actually quite amateurish if I be honest. I just feel a lot of statics need to be put in the right context and maybe someone else can argue that point better than I can. I also appreciate the links and stats provided to prove your points. I personally think that Weber faced a higher level of comp over the span of the year and like I said was used in a different way. And just to put this out there I am not trying to discredit Subban I don't think I have ever done that I just don't want people to get confused. I just think Weber is not getting the fair treatment it seems more often people are going to great lengths to discredit him instead of being fair. I think people need to realize that saying he isn't as good as Subban is not "discrediting him" or giving him "unfair treatment". He is not terrible... he's just not as good as Subban Sure Ben, just my eyes glaze over when anyone starts quoting stats like "HERO' or some other goofy name ..this is quite trivial entertainment and that stuff is a bit too much detail for me to care about (prefer to put my head back in the sand), unless it would somehow help me win betting on the games or series...does it allow that? No didnt think so, because maybe there are just way too many variables and intangibles in sports I. Will it help you win 100% of the time. No, nothing will. Does advanced stats predict winners more than 50% of the time (yes it does)... so it could help you win money betting. That said, Vegas is always a step ahead and includes those stats in their lines... so its not going to help much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 I think people need to realize that saying he isn't as good as Subban is not "discrediting him" or giving him "unfair treatment". He is not terrible... he's just not as good as Subban Will it help you win 100% of the time. No, nothing will. Does advanced stats predict winners more than 50% of the time (yes it does)... so it could help you win money betting. That said, Vegas is always a step ahead and includes those stats in their lines... so its not going to help much. All well and good, don't mind me, am just too old to readily adapt/accept change (think maybe am still traumatized by stat exams from years ago). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCHabnut Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/digging-into-shea-webers-poor-relative-corsi/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/digging-into-shea-webers-poor-relative-corsi/ Yes that was the original article that the links i posted abover responded to. Saying that while the zone starts and gaustad were a factor, the writer has emphasized them too much, and it doesn't explain everything the way the writer says it does. Here was the response. http://hockeyanalysis.com/2015/03/21/zone-starts-and-impact-on-players-statistics/ http://hockeyanalysis.com/2015/03/16/zone-starts-corsi-and-the-percentages/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 Here is another interesting one, looking at the Weber- Suter relationship; and how his numbers dropped off post Suter. http://www.si.com/nhl/2014/12/16/eye-test-shea-webers-advanced-stats-show-he-misses-ryan-suter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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