Trade Subban traded to Nashville

[BCHabnut]

I wasn't able able to open the first two links. I will admit that I usually don't read the whole article when it comes to stats. While I find the overall analysis very interesting, I just get bored of the process and try to glean what I can from them.

The SI article is very good. It also passes the eye test everyone talks about. It is what I have been most worried about. Weber just isn't that good at defensive zone breakouts. It is my biggest problem with the trade. I have tried a few times to compare him to Chara and Pronger, but the difference is that those guys know how to get the puck out of the zone. Weber's success will depend on a partner being able to pass.

[BCHabnut]

Weber logs a ton of TOI for the Predators, so he plays with all the teams forwards. But on a disproportionate number of the shifts he plays behind the Paul Gaustad-anchored fourth line, since Gaustad and Weber are integral to coach Peter Laviolettes extreme zone matching tendencies. (Gaustad leads the league with 66% of shifts started in the defensive zone. His 7% started in the offensive zone is, unsurprisingly, dead last.)

Quote from the SI article.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Here is another interesting one, looking at the Weber- Suter relationship; and how his numbers dropped off post Suter.

http://www.si.com/nhl/2014/12/16/eye-test-shea-webers-advanced-stats-show-he-misses-ryan-suter

"At worst, Weber is the best defenseman at playing away from the puck in a league that increasingly values players who play with the puck."

And that one sentence explains why Bergevin is so excited about Weber. And why the Habs are gonna be praying that guys like Beaulieu or Sergachev develop fast.

[Commandant]

I wasn't able able to open the first two links. I will admit that I usually don't read the whole article when it comes to stats. While I find the overall analysis very interesting, I just get bored of the process and try to glean what I can from them.

The SI article is very good. It also passes the eye test everyone talks about. It is what I have been most worried about. Weber just isn't that good at defensive zone breakouts. It is my biggest problem with the trade. I have tried a few times to compare him to Chara and Pronger, but the difference is that those guys know how to get the puck out of the zone. Weber's success will depend on a partner being able to pass.

I won't copy and paste a full article, cause that would piss me off if someone did it to me....

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2015/03/21/zone-starts-and-impact-on-players-statistics/

So instead i'll just summarize the key points.

1) Yes on an individual basis a faceoff in the Ozone is more likely to be a shot for, and a faceoff in the dzone is more likely to be a shot against.

HOwever comparing to other top defencemen, and aggregating it on a large sample size of 82 games... the number of extra dzone faceoffs for Weber is statistically insignificant.

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2015/03/16/zone-starts-corsi-and-the-percentages/

Yes, Gaustad is a bad possesion player.

Why? looking deeper, Gaustad is good at preventing shots against. In fact teams take less shots against the preds when he is on the ice than when he isn't. So defensively he isn't hurting weber.

So why is Gaustad a bad possession player, cause he generates almost 0 offense. Corsi % is shots against vs Shots for.... he gets nothing on shots for so his possession is shit.

So does his time with Weber explain Weber's bad stats?

No

Weber's bad stats aren't caused by lack of offense. His offense and shots for are fine.

His bad stats are caused by not getting the puck out of the zone and giving up lots of shots against. Gaustad actually helps prevent shots against. So blaming Gaustad for the poor possession numbers isn't correct.

To illustrate this lets look at the hero chart.

Subban is slightly ahead in shot generation... so okay, maybe the difference in shot generation is explainable by Weber playing with gaustad. That makes sense.

Subban is way ahead in shot suppression. The difference in shot suppression is not explained by playing with gaustad, as gaustad is actually better at preventing shots than the other Nashville lines, even with his shitty zone starts.

Therefore you can't explain Weber's bad stats as being gaustad's fault

As the SI article points out, its more about Weber's inability to get the puck out of his own end at times, no matter which forwards he's with.

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2015/03/21/zone-starts-and-impact-on-players-statistics/

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2015/03/16/zone-starts-corsi-and-the-percentages/

[Scott462]

To be honest I think it would make more sense to compare Josi Corsi to Subbans since they are similar type D men.

What does Josi Corsi look like? Since it would be more his job to be running the puck out of the zone as it would be Webers job to retrieve and get the puck to him

[Commandant]

To be honest I think it would make more sense to compare Josi Corsi to Subbans since they are similar type D men.

What does Josi Corsi look like? Since it would be more his job to be running the puck out of the zone as it would be Webers job to retrieve and get the puck to him

Not much difference from Josi to Weber since they play 90% of their shifts together... the chart (at least in the last three categories) is extremely similar to the one above.

[Scott462]

So that means that Josi was just as bad at shot suppression last year as Weber was but a lot of people think he is one of the top PMDs in the league and was #3 on the list of Coutures list of top D men. Now we both agree players will always talk up other players up but a lot of people think Josi is one of the best.

I was just wondering your opinion on that and the fact Josi doesn't have stellar Corsi either

[illWill]

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/elite-defensemen-101-part-2/

An article from last year by Shattenkirk talking about the best defensemen in the league. It's always cool getting a player's perspective

[Commandant]

So that means that Josi was just as bad at shot suppression last year as Weber was but a lot of people think he is one of the top PMDs in the league and was #3 on the list of Coutures list of top D men. Now we both agree players will always talk up other players up but a lot of people think Josi is one of the best.

I was just wondering your opinion on that and the fact Josi doesn't have stellar Corsi either

I think that Josi is a good defenceman, a very good defenceman.

But he isn't at an elite level like a Subban, Doughty, Keith, Karlsson, etc.... and oh one more name.. Ryan Suter who if we look at the numbers, it becomes clear that he was a driving force in Nashville and still is in Minnesota.

Again, saying that a guy isn't as good as that group doesn't mean he's awful.

[Scott462]

I heard Sutter was struggling over in Minnesota, I also heard he really ed over Nashville when he went there.

I get that you are not saying he's awful I never had an issue with that.

Alls I'm saying is I think a lot of people will disagree with you about Josi not being lumped in with those guys. Maybe not better but close to them anyway same with Weber even though he's a lot different than the ones mentioned

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/elite-defensemen-101-part-2/

An article from last year by Shattenkirk talking about the best defensemen in the league. It's always cool getting a player's perspective

Cheers!

[Machine of Loving Grace]

I heard Sutter was struggling over in Minnesota, I also heard he really ######ed over Nashville when he went there.

His numbers dropped because he didn't have a defenceman like Weber anymore. But his individual performances didn't take as big of a hit as Weber.

Nashville rebuilt their D just fine. New Jersey was hurt more by Parise leaving.

[hab29RETIRED]

His numbers dropped because he didn't have a defenceman like Weber anymore. But his individual performances didn't take as big of a hit as Weber.

Nashville rebuilt their D just fine. New Jersey was hurt more by Parise leaving.

The year following the trade, Weber's play dropped more than Suter. I remember one of the TSN analysts commenting that year how surprised everyone was that Suter's play didn't drop much, but Weber's numbers took a hit. Everyone assumed it would have been the other way around. I think Suter actually was one of the Norris nominees that year.

[Scott462]

Chara is the only active defencemen with more top 10 finishes than Weber for the Norris.

I was talking more about how Suter left Nashville with the whole controversy with promising Polie one thing and then doing another. Apparently the fans their hate him

[Machine of Loving Grace]

I think Suter actually was one of the Norris nominees that year.

He was. Since then Minnesota has pretty much run him into the ground having him play 30 minutes a game on average.

[illWill]

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/elite-defensemen-101-part-2/

An article from last year by Shattenkirk talking about the best defensemen in the league. It's always cool getting a player's perspective

A brief synopsis involving the two players involved in this thread:

On Weber:

Playing against him is no fun at all

Slap shot shattered his shin pad

His shot is either going in or creating a rebound

His intelligence in finding openings to get his shot off

He is an absolute beast and plays with a pretty big edge to his game

His body positioning in the corners is outstanding and he suffocates you down there

Handful of guys that commands respect from the refs and can get away with stuff

You're not getting out of the corner against him

He'll make you pay for carrying the puck across the blue line and that's why teams dump and chase against him

On Subban:

Extreme confidence, even as a kid

Legend in squirt hockey

Dislikable guy on the ice

Gets guys taking runs at him and off their game

Great edgework

Came into his own against Boston in the playoffs

Lots of whip on slapshot dropping down to one knee

Take from that what you will

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

But you forgot to add

Weber

Sh**ty transitional game

Subban

Superb transitional game

[hab29RETIRED]

He forgot a lot of pluses for Subban. When was Weber EVER a factor in the press winning a playoff series. That's probably one of the biggest reasons Poile made the move for Subban. He has the ability to take over and win a game. Weber is a solid dman, but he is not a game changer. Doug Wilson was a great dman (even he was better at carrying the puck than Weber), but he was not a player who was going to get his team over the hump like a Robinson, Savard, chelios, or potvin.

But you forgot to add

Weber

Sh**ty transitional game

Subban

Superb transitional game

[illWill]

But you forgot to add

Weber

Sh**ty transitional game

Subban

Superb transitional game

He forgot a lot of pluses for Subban. When was Weber EVER a factor in the press winning a playoff series. That's probably one of the biggest reasons Poile made the move for Subban. He has the ability to take over and win a game. Weber is a solid dman, but he is not a game changer. Doug Wilson was a great dman (even he was better at carrying the puck than Weber), but he was not a player who was going to get his team over the hump like a Robinson, Savard, chelios, or potvin.

Apparently you guys didn't read the article, as I simply highlighted the points that were written directly from an actual hockey player. I posted it to show the difference in thinking between someone on the ice and those sitting on their couch.

[hab29RETIRED]

And whatever shattenkirk says is gospel right?? I guess you also put a lot of stock in whatever Mike Richards has said about other players since his has a view from the ice?

Apparently you guys didn't read the article, as I simply highlighted the points that were written directly from an actual hockey player. I posted it to show the difference in thinking between someone on the ice and those sitting on their couch.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

He forgot a lot of pluses for Subban. When was Weber EVER a factor in the press winning a playoff series. That's probably one of the biggest reasons Poile made the move for Subban. He has the ability to take over and win a game. Weber is a solid dman, but he is not a game changer. Doug Wilson was a great dman (even he was better at carrying the puck than Weber), but he was not a player who was going to get his team over the hump like a Robinson, Savard, chelios, or potvin.

I can tell your definition of a game changer is very specific. I get the definition as well but I can assure you when Weber blasts a PP goal top shelf late in a 2-2 game, he will be a game changer as well.

Bringing the fans to the edge of their seats due to an amazing stride doesn't equate to game changer. I've been through the big moments he's had as well but how many times do these monumental plays lead to a different outcome in the game? 5 times a season? Oh no, Weber only changes the result 4 times a season with an individual effort. Bad trade.

Last season's GWG:

Shea Weber: 1

PK Subban: 0

That stat makes both arguments look bad because I'm thinking a game changer should have at least one. On the other hand, Weber should have more as well out of his 20 goals.

I know, but Subban had 30 game winning assists out of our 31 wins! (Sarcasm) Game changer!

[illWill]

And whatever shattenkirk says is gospel right?? I guess you also put a lot of stock in whatever Mike Richards has said about other players since his has a view from the ice?

I certainly didn't say what he or what Mike Richards says is gospel and he definitely didn't say anything about a transition game or Larry Robinson. It'd be nice to be able to post about something specific and discuss, rather than go off on a tangent about everything else under the sun. The point of the post is that hockey players see the game differently than people in front of a spreadsheet and tv screens. He gave a more glowing review of Weber than he did of Subban, and that supports the theory around the league that we've all known for awhile now. Nowhere in my post did I say that Subban is an inferior player or Weber is superior. I know it sucks that people have a different view than you but that is the reality of the world we live in

[Commandant]

Both reviews are pretty positive.... In fact all of the players he reviewed he was positive about.

The players who say stuff publically, its interesting, but its also grain of salt, cause no one wants to publically rip a strip off of a fellow player. Not in that forum.

Maybe immediately after the game when tempers are hot, some might do so.

But I don't see guys with a calm demeanor going in the players tribune and ripping each other. I haven't seen it in any sport.

[illWill]

Both reviews are pretty positive.... In fact all of the players he reviewed he was positive about.

The players who say stuff publically, its interesting, but its also grain of salt, cause no one wants to publically rip a strip off of a fellow player. Not in that forum.

Maybe immediately after the game when tempers are hot, some might do so.

But I don't see guys with a calm demeanor going in the players tribune and ripping each other. I haven't seen it in any sport.

Of course they were all positive reviews, the article is about elite defensemen. I actually remember reading it when it came out and feeling disappointed that he didn't say more about Subban. I don't think he highlighted the best parts of Subban's game in the article at all but that was sort of my point. PK does all these great things on and off the ice but yet is viewed in a different way by those involved with hockey than those who follow hockey. And yet Weber has this aura around him that just commands respect from the hockey community but isn't necessarily viewed the same way by fans.

[DON]

And whatever shattenkirk says is gospel right?? I guess you also put a lot of stock in whatever Mike Richards has said about other players since his has a view from the ice?

No you are wrong, Shattenkirk isn't a saint. And wrong again as most would not put a lot of stock into what Richards has to say anymore; but try pulling another player out of thin air and you may actually hit on one who is credible and with nothing to lose, say a Hal Gill, Saku Koivu or other respected players like Shae Weber maybe.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

There's nothing wrong with what Shattenkirk said. There are definitely some players out there who think Weber is a top of the class D. That's okay!

Hockey players play. Aside from basic human decency don't expect anything else.