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the myth of Mikhail Sergachev


alfredoh2009
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every now and then, when piling on the Habs GM or professional scouts, the notion of Sergachev being a "stud defenseman"

 

is he really?

*  he seems to play 3rd pair on a Stanley cup winning team, more often than not.

* he plays lots of minutes and has good stats

* but I wonder how much of that is due to being in a stacked team?

 

Expected Goals Above Replacement (Evolving Hockey)
Player                               GP    TOI All    TOI EV    TOI PP    TOI SH    xEVO    xEVD    xPPO    xSHD    Take    Draw    xOff    xDef    Pens    xGAR    xWAR    xSPAR

Sergachev    Total    -    295    5507.9    4670.2    522.4    218.6          8.6         4         4.2        2.4         0.3    -0.1      12.8      6.4       0.1       19.3        3.6        6.8

 

NHL Possession Metrics (Hockey-Reference)

Season     Age     Team     Lg     GP     TOI          CF        CA       CF%    CF% rel     FF       FA         FF%     FF%  rel      oiGF    oiSH%     oiGA     oiSV%     PDO     oZS%     dZS%

5 yrs                     TBL       NHL  291    5458.8    5429    4514    54.6    4.7           4070    3445    54.2    4.1               300    10.3          219       91.5        101.8     60.3       39.7

 

On Ice (Natural Stat Trick)

Season    Team    GP    TOI    CF%      FF%     xG%      SCF%    HDCF%    HDGF%    On-Ice SH%    On-Ice SV%    PDO
2016-17    MTL    4        46    43.68    40.58   35.26    36.96    27.27       33.33       15.79               94.12                1.099
2017-18    T.B     79    1023   54.01     53.20   54.35    53.69    53.89      61.36          9.45               92.82               1.023
2018-19    T.B     75     1174   54.05    53.64   53.61     53.31    52.91       56.92         9.38               91.76                1.011
2019-20    T.B     70    1130   52.91     51.81    54.35    55.67    55.17        51.16          9.27               92.87               1.021
2020-21    T.B     56     947   50.95    50.76    53.86    51.97    52.74       67.39         9.09               93.42               1.025
2021-22    T.B     11      182    47.59    47.14     48.10    47.85    59.68        62.50      10.53               91.67                1.022

 

He is a top 20 offensive D (if I believe my query)

image.png

 

and if having low High Danger Scoring Chances is an indicator, he is top 20 :

image.png

 

How much of his stats are due from playing for TBL, and how much is it him being a stud D?

 

 

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All stats get inflated when on a good team.  For example, Sergachev has his assignment on TB and mostly only has to worry about his assignment as other players on that team are good enough to mostly fulfill their assignment.  Therefore his sole focus can be his own assignment.  Playing on a worse team, you expect the players around you to make mistakes, making you worry about your assignment. theirs and the potential fallout of that.  It's what is commonly referred to as over-thinking the game.

 

The only exception of this are players that are skilled enough to influence the play around them.  These are your McDavid's and young Weber's.  Just their presence makes opponents play different.

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His stats look pretty good to me. Of course you have presented many stats which I don't have a clue about. What the the heck is XOff or XPPO??   I will continue to say that the Drouin - Sergachev trade was a bad one no wonder what this plethora of stats say.  What do the stats say for Drouin? 

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Well, if his stats say top 20 D, do Drouin’s stats say top 20 C, since that’s what position he was sold as after the trade? Or heck, let’s ignore that and see if he’s top 20 at LW.

 

The Habs still have glaring holes at D, and at C. In the long run, this trade has accomplished nothing for the Habs. 
 

Really though, this is somewhat of an odd post, as this is routinely a trade that is panned, and Timmins given high marks for drafting Sergachev. I think most people simply believe the Habs would be better off today with Sergachev vs Drouin.

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16 minutes ago, huzer said:

Well, if his stats say top 20 D, do Drouin’s stats say top 20 C, since that’s what position he was sold as after the trade? Or heck, let’s ignore that and see if he’s top 20 at LW.

 

The Habs still have glaring holes at D, and at C. In the long run, this trade has accomplished nothing for the Habs. 
 

Really though, this is somewhat of an odd post, as this is routinely a trade that is panned, and Timmins given high marks for drafting Sergachev. I think most people simply believe the Habs would be better off today with Sergachev vs Drouin.

 

Yup, I would say that pretty much every poster on this board would like to turn back the clock on this trade.  

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Sergachev always struck me as mistake-prone, but he would sure help our powerplay.  I wouldn't call him a stud D yet, with Hedman and McDonagh and even Cernak doing a lot of the heavy lifting for that team.  His flaws would be a lot less well-hidden if he stayed with the Habs.

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To be honest, when Instarted the post I thought Sergavhev’s stats would be less favorable

 

I was surprised that  David Savard is also a top 20 with low “HDSC” stats, ahead of Sergachev.

would Sergachev suck if playing for the Habs instead of the Lightning?

 

he produces about 30 points a season, but mostly from passes. Would he have as many points with the Habs?

 

I honestly don’t know, and that is why I asked the question : is it a myth to think he would have done as well with the Habs compared on how Drouin has done.

Honest question 

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6 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I honestly don’t know, and that is why I asked the question : is it a myth to think he would have done as well with the Habs compared on how Drouin has done.

Honest question 

 

I think there is little doubt Sergachev (although younger and young defencemen make mistakes) would have been far more valuable to the Habs.  Keep in mind you are comparing a defenceman to a winger so it' s a bit of an apples to oranges comparison.  Drouin has been a disappointment, I think most of us expected more production, a lot of talent that hasn't produced a lot of results.  Sergachev is still young, perhaps not a stud yet but is headed in that direction. 

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1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

To be honest, when Instarted the post I thought Sergavhev’s stats would be less favorable

 

I was surprised that  David Savard is also a top 20 with low “HDSC” stats, ahead of Sergachev.

would Sergachev suck if playing for the Habs instead of the Lightning?

 

he produces about 30 points a season, but mostly from passes. Would he have as many points with the Habs?

 

I honestly don’t know, and that is why I asked the question : is it a myth to think he would have done as well with the Habs compared on how Drouin has done.

Honest question 

I think Sergechev probably would have struggled more with the habs -but that has more to do with our crap development process (or lack of one).  With us he probably would have been out in a top pairing role like Mete was - whether he was ready or not.

 

Dmen take time. Sergechev still can be a top pairing dman. Savard is barely still a bottom pairing dman.

 

Drouin is NOT a legit top line player on a good team. Hopefully he becomes a better, or more consistent 2nd line winger with us - assuming we don’t continue with the experiment at centre with him.

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I’m not going to defend the trade.

 

However, we now know that Drouin has struggled with mental health issues. He will improve, and he was leading the team in points when he was injured. The C experiment was due to injuries to other players.

 

At this point I want to give him some time to find his game and seevehat he can do when he’s healthy.

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58 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

At this point I want to give him some time to find his game and seevehat he can do when he’s healthy.

But we all would swap these 2 players, if given the option to have him back.

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7 hours ago, DON said:

But we all would swap these 2 players, if given the option to have him back.

right now, with Weber probably done and Savard in the top 4: YES

 

Last season, YES

 

most seasons since the trade YES (I think Drouin led the Habs in points one year?)

 

the question I ask is if Sergachev is a stud, or a player in a great team that benefits from playing with Hedman and the like ?

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2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

the question I ask is if Sergachev is a stud, or a player in a great team that benefits from playing with Hedman and the like ?

Why not, without Hedman/McDonagh he would have a bigger role, than 22+minutes/gm he plays.

So, on other team (Habs) he might be top pairing and not simply be the 3rd best LH d-man on team, averaging 45pts/yr and he is just 23 still.

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2 hours ago, DON said:

Why not, without Hedman/McDonagh he would have a bigger role, than 22+minutes/gm he plays.

So, on other team (Habs) he might be top pairing and not simply be the 3rd best LH d-man on team, averaging 45pts/yr and he is just 23 still.

 

Exactly. Playing on a powerhouse cuts both ways. He would unquestionably be a top-pairing guy here - probably in the process of crowding out the floundering Petry as our #1 d-man. 

 

Trading a defenceman for a winger is generally not a great idea. C and D are premium positions. Even if Drouin finally solidifies as a reliable producer, the trade would still be a bust. 

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