dlbalr Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 With Kulak, he does this every year. He has a stretch of a month or so where he looks like a capable second-pairing defenceman before it all comes crashing back down to earth. At this point, I'm more prepared to call this history repeating itself than a sign that his game has been transformed under a new head coach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 29 minutes ago, dlbalr said: With Kulak, he does this every year. He has a stretch of a month or so where he looks like a capable second-pairing defenceman before it all comes crashing back down to earth. At this point, I'm more prepared to call this history repeating itself than a sign that his game has been transformed under a new head coach. It's not a month or two when you look at the analytics. Hes not perfect and will make big mistakes but the underlying numbers suggest that he brings far more positives than negatives even with those big mistakes... and they suggest that over the long sample size Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, Commandant said: It's not a month or two when you look at the analytics. Hes not perfect and will make big mistakes but the underlying numbers suggest that he brings far more positives than negatives even with those big mistakes... and they suggest that over the long sample size I know the analytics say one thing and have for several years now. But it was quite telling that a team that went heavy on analytics in Seattle stayed away in expansion as well. For them to do that was quite surprising considering the player they took (Fleury) was I think the first player they waived. I think part of the problem with Kulak is that he doesn't play beyond five-on-five. He has decent offensive skills that amount to next to zero production which takes him off of power play consideration and in the defensive zone, he's not a particularly reliable defender that can be trusted to take a regular shift on the penalty kill. How much value does an even strength specialist defenceman have? It's pretty minimal. I think those types of players get overrated in terms of some of the advanced numbers out there. I liken Kulak to Tom Gilbert from a few years ago. The analytics were great and suggested he was a capable top-four defenceman. He then completely cratered when put in that role on an extended basis and was out of the league soon after once it became clear he couldn't kill penalties or play on the power play. I'm not much of a Kulak fan - I think he's going to continue to be limited to a depth role because he is basically best utilized as an ES-only guy even if the analytics say he's a diamond in the rough. Someone like Harris could easily replace the puck-moving skills he brings to the table and probably is an upgrade defensively. To the point made on the last page, he's not someone I'd entertain bringing back at his current price let alone a raise and I expect the only chance they'll have of getting even a mid-round pick for him in a trade will be with max retention as teams are looking for specialists for their depth roles, not a guy who they'll hesitate to play on special teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Kulak is better defensively than you give him credit for IMO... and I think he can be effectively used on the penalty kill as well. I do agree that he's not good enough to play PP minutes though. If that is why he's undervalued around the league, I'm fine with signing him and using him as either the worst player in the top 4, or the leader of the third pair, insulating a young defenceman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, revvvrob said: If Lehkonen could regain his rookie season scoring touch, we’d really have something there with him! His rookie season pace was roughly 20g+11a. His current pace is roughly 20g+22a. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, tomh009 said: His rookie season pace was roughly 20g+11a. His current pace is roughly 20g+22a. Unless he has suddenly become a new player, this is an outlier season. Artturi Lehkonen Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com It's an absolutely classic trap - guy has a career year in a contract year, team overpays in money and term, team rues the day. (The other side of it is that Lehks is 26, rounding into his peak, and could conceivably play at that level for another 4-5 years. But for my part I am leery of the "contract year" phenomenon, especially for a guy who is a bottom-6 FW). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Commandant said: Kulak is better defensively than you give him credit for IMO... and I think he can be effectively used on the penalty kill as well. I do agree that he's not good enough to play PP minutes though. If that is why he's undervalued around the league, I'm fine with signing him and using him as either the worst player in the top 4, or the leader of the third pair, insulating a young defenceman. I agree. He makes less mistakes than Petry but does not have the scoring talent. He can also play 2nd pair minutes. At a bargain price, I would re-sing him instead of having Schueneman or Niku in the bottom pair. This article agrees with this analysis on Kulak's skill level: https://www.sportsnet.ca/article/nhl-scouts-analysis-bargain-depth-defencemen-to-target-at-nhl-trade-deadline/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: Unless he has suddenly become a new player, this is an outlier season. Artturi Lehkonen Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com I know, I am in no way suggesting that he is a regular 40-point/year player now. He had a bit of burst of scoring under Ducharme when he was playing on the line with Toffoli and Suzuki. But now he is with Pitlick and Evans, not top scorers themselves, and yet they are making things happen. Is the another St Louis effect? Or just a fluke? The gut check says the line is playing well, but the sample size is still far too small. If he doesn't get traded at deadline, it'll be interesting to watch that line for the remaining 30 games or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: Unless he has suddenly become a new player, this is an outlier season. Artturi Lehkonen Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com It's an absolutely classic trap - guy has a career year in a contract year, team overpays in money and term, team rues the day. (The other side of it is that Lehks is 26, rounding into his peak, and could conceivably play at that level for another 4-5 years. But for my part I am leery of the "contract year" phenomenon, especially for a guy who is a bottom-6 FW). I really like Lekhonen and he could be a late bloomer - guys like Blake Wheeler had their success later as they matured. But I hesitate to keep him, when he is going to be driving the bus in contract negotiations (with arbitration option), and he is a UFA in a year. I think we already overpaid and overcommitted to Armia (I like Lekhonen a lot better), and there even people saying at the start of the year that Armia can become a regular 20 goal scorer. Lekhonen works hard - but than so did Cris Higgins, but he fizzled out after a few productive years. Not sure if this as an outlier year, what he is now, or a sign of better things to come. What I do believe, is that I doubt if his value will be this high again (good playoff performance, followed by career year), so if someone is willing to offer a 1st, or a blue chip prospect with a higher ceiling and a 2nd, I don’t know how we can turn it down. The key is that we don’t HAVE to move for what we can get like we do with Chiarot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, tomh009 said: themselves, and yet they are making things happen. Is the Like I said in my earlier post, I think he should be traded - but only if we get good value for him - we don’t need to move him YET. The risk of course is he regresses, gets paid more in arbitration, and we don’t get as much next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said: I really like Lekhonen and he could be a late bloomer - guys like Blake Wheeler had their success later as they matured. But I hesitate to keep him, when he is going to be driving the bus in contract negotiations (with arbitration option), and he is a UFA in a year. I think we already overpaid and overcommitted to Armia (I like Lekhonen a lot better), and there even people saying at the start of the year that Armia can become a regular 20 goal scorer. Lekhonen works hard - but than so did Cris Higgins, but he fizzled out after a few productive years. Not sure if this as an outlier year, what he is now, or a sign of better things to come. What I do believe, is that I doubt if his value will be this high again (good playoff performance, followed by career year), so if someone is willing to offer a 1st, or a blue chip prospect with a higher ceiling and a 2nd, I don’t know how we can turn it down. The key is that we don’t HAVE to move for what we can get like we do with Chiarot. (without checking) I would package Chiarot and Lehkonen, two affordable expiring contracts, for an established and affordable 2C and a high 2nd round pick in 2023 (from a team with multiple picks). They would push a "bubble" team over the hump to "have a chance" team just short of making them a cup contender. A team with centre depth may bite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said: I really like Lekhonen and he could be a late bloomer - guys like Blake Wheeler had their success later as they matured. But I hesitate to keep him, when he is going to be driving the bus in contract negotiations (with arbitration option), and he is a UFA in a year. My personal view is that the only way keeping him makes sense is if they can sign him to a long-term (4 or 5 years?) now, at a reasonable cost. And I have said that before. Otherwise you keep waiting for a good-enough offer, whether it comes now, in the summer, or next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said: (without checking) I would package Chiarot and Lehkonen, two affordable expiring contracts, for an established and affordable 2C and a high 2nd round pick in 2023 (from a team with multiple picks). They would push a "bubble" team over the hump to "have a chance" team just short of making them a cup contender. A team with centre depth may bite Like who? Who is going to trade an affordable 2C, for mid-blue-line depth and a 3rd line winger having a career year. Most good 2C’a would have more than 40 points., so why move an affordable young 2C for Lekhonen and Chiarot? high end prospect? sure. Established young and affordable 2C? No way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, tomh009 said: My personal view is that the only way keeping him makes sense is if they can sign him to a long-term (4 or 5 years?) now, at a reasonable cost. And I have said that before. Otherwise you keep waiting for a good-enough offer, whether it comes now, in the summer, or next season. Why would he sign a reasonable 4-5 year deal, when he can probably get more through arbitration? Last year, sure. Would have preferred giving him what we paid Armia. Next year, in arbitration he is definitely getting a lot more than Armia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) 49 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said: Like who? Who is going to trade an affordable 2C, for mid-blue-line depth and a 3rd line winger having a career year. Most good 2C’a would have more than 40 points., so why move an affordable young 2C for Lekhonen and Chiarot? high end prospect? sure. Established young and affordable 2C? No way. I was thinking Pittsburgh, but I do not know if Malkin is back and who is filling in for him that may be available. I have not checked. Usually PIT is against the cap and does not have prospects in the system... I may check later I checked and posted on the trade proposal thread Edited March 10, 2022 by alfredoh2009 I checked and posted on the trade proposal thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said: At a bargain price, I would re-sing him instead of having Schueneman or Niku in the bottom pair. This article agrees with this analysis on Kulak's skill level: I think it's safe to say there's no chance Niku is on the bottom pair in Montreal next season. Even if he plays in six more NHL games for the Habs to retain his RFA rights, I don't think there's any team that would have Niku on a third pairing moving forward. At this point, I'd be very surprised if he's in the organization next season (things are not going well for him in Laval). 2 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said: Why would he sign a reasonable 4-5 year deal, when he can probably get more through arbitration? Last year, sure. Would have preferred giving him what we paid Armia. Next year, in arbitration he is definitely getting a lot more than Armia. Is he someone that wants to go for top dollar year to year or would he prefer stability in the form of a longer-term deal with perhaps some partial trade protection? Plenty of guys a year out from UFA sign long-term contracts. I don't know the answer in Lehkonen's case obviously but the thought of him inking a long-term deal this summer with a team (the Habs or whoever gets him) isn't crazy to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said: Why would he sign a reasonable 4-5 year deal, when he can probably get more through arbitration? Last year, sure. Would have preferred giving him what we paid Armia. Next year, in arbitration he is definitely getting a lot more than Armia. The only way the Habs will know the answer to that question is by having Hughes pick up the phone ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 23 minutes ago, dlbalr said: Is he someone that wants to go for top dollar year to year or would he prefer stability in the form of a longer-term deal with perhaps some partial trade protection? Plenty of guys a year out from UFA sign long-term contracts. I don't know the answer in Lehkonen's case obviously but the thought of him inking a long-term deal this summer with a team (the Habs or whoever gets him) isn't crazy to me. Lehkonen is a quiet guy (he's a Finn after all) so there is very little to indicate what he wants. He could possibly love the city and the team and sign that deal. Or maybe he can't wait to leave. He's said so little publicly that there is really nothing to go on to predict that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, tomh009 said: Lehkonen is a quiet guy (he's a Finn after all) Carolina bound? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 Who's taking tonight's GDT against Seattle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, dlbalr said: Who's taking tonight's GDT against Seattle? Got it ... thin, but it's there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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