GDT Game 50 - Canadiens @ Capitals - February 6 - 7 p.m.

[Commandant]

 

23 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

There are always some late bloomers, that might not be the norm but it does happen. That's part of what makes scouting an inexact science. 

 

Of course there are always late bloomers, but there fact is that right now there isn't a single one who has followed the path of Florian Xhekaj and went on to score 30 goals or 60 points in a single season in the NHL. 

 

Could he make the NHL? of course. 

 

Is he going to reach the levels that have been predicted by Sir Boagalot?  That is highly unlikely.  In fact there is no precedent for someone with these stats at 19 to do it (37 points in 45 games right now). 

[GHT120]

2 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

No clue why he keeps mentioning age and # of years in Jr in the CHL as being a prerequisite for becoming a decent NHLer. 

 

Don't think that anyone is saying that ... rather, that age/yrs-in-CHL are relevant when comparing players' production in junior and career development. 

 

1 hour ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

There are numerous examples of players that are outside of your time frame of what you say *must* happen by a certain age or there is no chance of it happening. 

 

Ryder did spend 3 years post junior before making the Habs, but he scored 34 goals his draft year, then 44 and 50 his last two regular junior seasons.

 

2 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

What is unprecedented is the fact the entire world shut down for the Covid lockout.  A bunch of young players lost precious time during their critical development years.

 

This is a valid point ... and bigger players have often taken longer to development, so that lost time may well impact them more ... Mailloux is another example, his offence is quite natural but he lost critical time to develop his defensive game, hence the possibly he may need AHL time next season as well.

 

17 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

I'll be absolutely shocked if he turns out to be just a 4th liner. 

 

21 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

I think Florian could potentially get 25-30 g/yr and 50-65 pts/yr.

 

I don't think anyone debates whether or not Florian has a chance to make the NHL, just that the odds are he will be a 4th liner by the time he does as the Habs will be further along in the rebuild (also, remembering that Jake Evans having to currently play as the 2C does not really make him a "second-line centre") ... and that setting his potential as 25-30 goal scorer is setting the bar too high.

[hab29RETIRED]

2 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

There are numerous examples of players that are outside of your time frame of what you say *must* happen by a certain age or there is no chance of it happening.   It is not unprecedented for a player to take longer and become a 30 g scorer in the NHL.  ex:  how old was Ryder when he broke into the NHL and was runner up for rookie of the year?  He's a 2 time 30 g scorer and got 35 once, 27 twice and 25 once.  

 

No clue why you insist that its only about how good a player can shoot, skate and pass at their draft year.  Its not like those things aren't practicable and people can't improve on those with time.

 

The Habs should fire their Growth Coach because Cole hasn't grown 4", they need a new Toughness & Grit Coach too because Cole isn't a net hound like Gally.  

 

I'm pretty sure Florian will be better than a 4th liner because he's high in 3 attributes that are vastly important and they happen to be unteachable traits.  Hence why those characteristics are highly desirable and more important than other skills that have coaches.

 

 

 

 

 

 

You’re not getting it. It’s not how long it took someone to become a 30 goal scorer in the NHL, it’s how they produced their junior career. Ryder scored 34 (draft year), 44 and 50 goals in juniors.

 

Martin St Louis went through the college route and scored 15, 23, 29, and 24 goals during his college career he also had over 80 points in college. He wasn’t drafted because of his size, but was a very skilled and productive players. 
 

ita ridiculous comparing Florian to them, or to a top 5 pick like Makar.

 

 

[Sir_Boagalott]

28 minutes ago, DON said:

Why are you pretty sure? I dont understand how you can be, thats all.

 

I acknowledge that there are 2 types of goals:

1. clean pretty easy goals
2. dirty ugly hard goals

 

Kings of 1:  Gretzky, McDavid, Bedard, Stamkos, etc

ex:  player skates over blue line and rips a wrister that handcuffs the goalie and scores in top corner.  i.e. those players have elite skills.  They are primarily perimeter players vs around the crease.

 

Kings of 2:  Messier, Perry, Tkachuks, etc. 

 

A player doesn't need to have elite skill to put up a lot of points as long as they have size, strength, and balls to play in the tough areas.  The areas where the player pays a price to score goals.  ex:  think of all the times Gally scored and then got knocked on his ass afterwards.  In those scenarios, if Florian gets 220 lbs he'll have the size and strength to still be on his feet - the dman hitting him might fall over. 

 

@tomh009 joked about OV being the best scorer because he scored into a 1/2 open net from 10' out.  Florian will live in those areas and have a ton of similar chances that he'll score way more than other players with a similar level of skill.  A player doesn't need to have a great shot to score into half open net from a short distance.  What they need is the size, grit and the balls to constantly be in those areas.  Florian has those qualities in spades. 

 

The Xhekaj's also have a crazy work ethic - both of their parents are refugees; they've never been given anything and worked hard to get everything they have.   There are coaches for shooting, skating, etc; so they'll both continue to get better.

 

Florian doesnt have the same skill level as the Kings of #2 but Wilson and even Anderson are similar size, strength, toughness and grit, and skill.  They get 20+ g/yr.  

 

Ryan Smyth was 6'2" and 192 lbs so he lacked strength but he's another good example of a player scoring a lot of goals using tenacity.

 

 

 

 

   

 

[Commandant]

Ryan Smith was a 6th overall pick

 

At 17 he scored 50 goals and 105 points in 72 games.

 

At 18 he scored 41 goald and 86 points in just 50 games.

 

At 19 he was in the NHL.

 

Its another horrible comparison.

 

Tenacity is one aspect of this, but michael pezzetta has plenty of tenacity, so did Steve Begin, Tom Kostopolous, Travis Moen and many guys who never get out of beer league.  Scoring NHL goals is hard, it takes more than just tenacity, it takes skill too.  You dont seem to understand that.

[GHT120]

14 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

I acknowledge that there are 2 types of goals:

1. clean pretty easy goals
2. dirty ugly hard goals

...

 

Kings of 2:  Messier, Perry, Tkachuks, etc. 

 

A player doesn't need to have elite skill to put up a lot of points as long as they have size, strength, and balls to play in the tough areas. 

 

Messier was one of the best players on the planet in his prime ... Matthew Tkachuk had 30g in 57 gm his draft year and jumped immediately to the NHL ... Brady went the NCAA route but also jumped to the NHL as a 19 yr-old ... Perry scored 25 goals his draft year, followed by 40g and 47g.

 

I don't think you are doing your argument any favours by the players you use to try to make your point. 

 

For the Habs' and Florian's sake I hope you are right ... but I think you are being wildly optimistic.

[Sir_Boagalott]

4 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

You’re not getting it. It’s not how long it took someone to become a 30 goal scorer in the NHL, it’s how they produced their junior career. Ryder scored 34 (draft year), 44 and 50 goals in juniors.

 

ita ridiculous comparing Florian to them, or to a top 5 pick like Makar.

 

 

 

 

That really isn't the deciding factor.  That implies it is impossible for their to be late bloomers.  Also, like I mentioned - the entire world shutdown.  

 

Look at Wilson and Andy's stats:

 

 

The yellow line likely depicts when they were 190 lbs.  i.e. Anderson was likely always a rather large, even when he was 10 or under.

 

Look at their goals in their final Jr year and compare it to their NHL avg.  Their g/yr in the NHL are effectively the same #'s.  

 

Besides, the Xhekaj's both have that fire in their eyes similar to the Rocket.  There is no way Arber is 6th-7th damn and Florian but a 4th liner.

 

 

 

 

No comparisons of players were made, just players pointed out that broke the stated pre-requisites.  i.e. I never said Florian will be an elite 1st liner.  

 

 

[hab29RETIRED]

54 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

I acknowledge that there are 2 types of goals:

1. clean pretty easy goals
2. dirty ugly hard goals

 

Kings of 1:  Gretzky, McDavid, Bedard, Stamkos, etc

ex:  player skates over blue line and rips a wrister that handcuffs the goalie and scores in top corner.  i.e. those players have elite skills.  They are primarily perimeter players vs around the crease.

 

Kings of 2:  Messier, Perry, Tkachuks, etc. 

 

A player doesn't need to have elite skill to put up a lot of points as long as they have size, strength, and balls to play in the tough areas.  The areas where the player pays a price to score goals.  ex:  think of all the times Gally scored and then got knocked on his ass afterwards.  In those scenarios, if Florian gets 220 lbs he'll have the size and strength to still be on his feet - the dman hitting him might fall over. 

 

@tomh009 joked about OV being the best scorer because he scored into a 1/2 open net from 10' out.  Florian will live in those areas and have a ton of similar chances that he'll score way more than other players with a similar level of skill.  A player doesn't need to have a great shot to score into half open net from a short distance.  What they need is the size, grit and the balls to constantly be in those areas.  Florian has those qualities in spades. 

 

The Xhekaj's also have a crazy work ethic - both of their parents are refugees; they've never been given anything and worked hard to get everything they have.   There are coaches for shooting, skating, etc; so they'll both continue to get better.

 

Florian doesnt have the same skill level as the Kings of #2 but Wilson and even Anderson are similar size, strength, toughness and grit, and skill.  They get 20+ g/yr.  

 

Ryan Smyth was 6'2" and 192 lbs so he lacked strength but he's another good example of a player scoring a lot of goals using tenacity.

 

 

 

 

   

 

Messier does not have elite skill??? Did you ever watch him play?  Ditto with Perry and Tkachuk. All three have toughness, but all are HIGHLY skilled and ELITE players. 

[Sir_Boagalott]

42 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

 

Messier was one of the best players on the planet in his prime ... Matthew Tkachuk had 30g in 57 gm his draft year and jumped immediately to the NHL ... Brady went the NCAA route but also jumped to the NHL as a 19 yr-old ... Perry scored 25 goals his draft year, followed by 40g and 47g.

 

I don't think you are doing your argument any favours by the players you use to try to make your point. 

 

For the Habs' and Florian's sake I hope you are right ... but I think you are being wildly optimistic.

 

Thats a non-sequitor to what I said.   

  

I made no compassion of Florian to Messier et el.  I pointed out there are 2 types of goals and I cited numerous of the best for each.  

 

I did clearly say that those players are more skilled than Florian.  I never implied Florian will be an elite 40g 80 pts 1st liner either.

 

I pointed out that Florian will score a lot of goals the 2nd way.  It doesn't take a high level of skill to slide the puck 4 feet along the ice into an open net.  

 

Not to mention, in games where a goalie is super hot and you can't buy a goal; its the 2nd type of goal that wins those games.

 

 

 

[Commandant]

It takes more skill than you think to score goals, regardless of sliding them 4 feet into an open net.  The NHL game moves so fast and the hand eye coordination needed is high.

 

Im confused as to why you think he will be able to score these goals at a high rate, when he isnt able to score them at a high rate in junior hockey playing against 16-19 year olds.

[GHT120]

23 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Messier does not have elite skill??? Did you ever watch him play?  Ditto with Perry and Tkachuk. All three have toughness, but all are HIGHLY skilled and ELITE players. 

 

12 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Thats a non-sequitor to what I said. 

 

1 hour ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

I acknowledge that there are 2 types of goals:

1. clean pretty easy goals
2. dirty ugly hard goals

...

Kings of 2:  Messier, Perry, Tkachuks, etc. 

 

A player doesn't need to have elite skill to put up a lot of points as long as they have size, strength, and balls to play in the tough areas.  

 

You may not have intended to say Messier, Perry and the Tkachuks don't have elite skill ... but as posted that is the clear implication.

[DON]

2 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Messier does not have elite skill??? Did you ever watch him play?  Ditto with Perry and Tkachuk. All three have toughness, but all are HIGHLY skilled and ELITE players. 

Messier hit like a truck when with Oilers in his prime, he was 'kinda' strong on his skates.

Like a Mackinnon-Tom Wilson hybrid, is what i remember.

[hab29RETIRED]

1 hour ago, DON said:

Messier hit like a truck when with Oilers in his prime, he was 'kinda' strong on his skates.

Like a Mackinnon-Tom Wilson hybrid, is what i remember.

No question. But the point is he wasn’t just a tough player - he was a highly skilled player, who was a top 5 player in his era, and one of the all time greats. Just a horrible comparison when making a case for Florian.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

8 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

 

Of course there are always late bloomers, but there fact is that right now there isn't a single one who has followed the path of Florian Xhekaj and went on to score 30 goals or 60 points in a single season in the NHL. 

 

Could he make the NHL? of course. 

 

Is he going to reach the levels that have been predicted by Sir Boagalot?  That is highly unlikely.  In fact there is no precedent for someone with these stats at 19 to do it (37 points in 45 games right now). 

I don't disagree at all but sometimes fans (short for fanatic) throw reason and logic out the window and dream for more than is likely to happen. I am guilty of that sometimes.

[DON]

10 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

No question. But the point is he wasn’t just a tough player - he was a highly skilled player, who was a top 5 player in his era, and one of the all time greats. Just a horrible comparison when making a case for Florian.

1887 points & 295 more in the playoffs, also pretty impressive production.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Florian is a 4th rounder who many expected to go later than that. Pencilling him as anything more than a future bottom-6 guy seems fanciful. 

 

This reminds me a bit of a discussion on here many years ago where a poster was arguing that Tomas Plekanec would achieve production to rival Pavel Datsyuk. This was based on some parallel between them early in their careers. Well, Pleks was a fine player but he was no Datsyuk.

 

(As a general rule, I’ll bet later picks are more likely to surprise when they are small guys with some skill, like Gallagher, who are overlooked because they’re small. Big guys are way more likely to enjoy a draft premium owing to their size, and consequently less likely to surprise. Or so I’d speculate).

 

Anyway, part of the fun of a rebuilding team is indulging in speculation about what all these kids might become. Time will tell.

[alfredoh2009]

2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Florian is a 4th rounder who many expected to go later than that. Pencilling him as anything more than a future bottom-6 guy seems fanciful. 

 

This reminds me a bit of a discussion on here many years ago where a poster was arguing that Tomas Plekanec would achieve production to rival Pavel Datsyuk. This was based on some parallel between them early in their careers. Well, Pleks was a fine player but he was no Datsyuk.

 

(As a general rule, I’ll bet later picks are more likely to surprise when they are small guys with some skill, like Gallagher, who are overlooked because they’re small. Big guys are way more likely to enjoy a draft premium owing to their size, and consequently less likely to surprise. Or so I’d speculate).

 

Anyway, part of the fun of a rebuilding team is indulging in speculation about what all these kids might become. Time will tell.

 

I wonder hoe much the pandemic affected the capacity of evaluating teenagers leading to their junior years and juniors. Florian may be one of those kids that was not in most scouts radar and that maybe why he dropped. I am just surprised when I see him go on a scoring spree.