Habsy Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I hate predictions, but what the hell, here's mine. We went 4-2 against them this season, so I say we go 4-2 again, and take it in six. I believe Carey has emerged as the superstar most of us believed he'd become. And that's going to continue. At this point, he's our Sidney Crosby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrenDittero Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 This is the Boston / Montreal round 1 scenario that I wouldn't be surprised to see unfold. ( for dramatic effect ) April 14 in Boston - Boston wins for the home town crowd. April 16 in Boston - Boston wins again, analysts write off the Habs because of injuries. Fans again start up the fire JM threads. ( on other forums of course ) April 18 In MTL - Montreal gets their first win. Analysts attribute it to being in the Bell Centre. Chara gets the most amazing boo-ing ever. The Habs are back in it. April 21 in MTL - Montreal wins their second in a row. The Bruins start to sweat. Habs are accused of cheating somehow and bad officiating is blamed for the Bruins loss. April 23 in Boston - Despite the cheap shots and goon tactics, Montreal pulls off an amazing last minute victory thanks to Subban. The Boston media and Brad Marchand blow their collective tops. April 26 in MTL - So close to victory and playing their last home game of the series, the Habs run out of gas / make costly mistakes in the 3rd. Series tied again. April 27 in Boston - Montreal wins 3-1. April 27th will forever be a provincial holiday in Quebec. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalhabs Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Will be very intresting to see how Chara will be treated in his return to Montreal. Concidering riots and stuff that have happened in the past in Habs playoff history I bet things could get ugly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brobin Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Of course anything can happen, but I believe a Habs win would be an upset (not just because of our seed position). Going in they have all the advantages (home ice, healthy roster, more depth, etc). That said, Timmy can suck, they could get a few injuries in the early part of the series to key guys (imagine Chara hurting himself falling over Thomas, who in turn has his knee screwed by the weight... sorry, that is my private fantasy). At the same time, we could get off to a hot start and then have Chara gouge out Plek's eye... So I am not predicting so much as assessing odds. You can't really use logic to predict playoff matchups. The teams are so evenly matched now that any team can lose. What would logic have told us last season against the Caps and the defending Stanley Cup champion Pens? Lose your best player playing against two of the three best players in the world and their Stanley Cup/Olympic goalie and you are screwed right? How about the 2002 Bruins and their depth? The Habs had no chance with Koivu, Zednik, Perreault, Audette, Gilmour etc. These things happen every season where logic dictates one result and the playoffs offer up a different one. The 2008 Habs had won 11 straight against the Bruins and were up 3-1. They had lost 1 of their previous 15 games and all of a sudden were life and death having to play a game seven. In their last 7 playoff appearances the Habs have knocked off a 1 or 2 seed four times. The only times they didn't were 2006 and 2009 and the only one that really played out to script was 2009 when they were injury ravaged. I have given up logic and essentially guessing who will win. All I know is the Habs are just as good and I hope for the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saskhab Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 The Bruins are down Marc Savard and Steve Kampfer... not exactly 100% healthy. They also have a weak PP unit and trade deadline acquisitions like Kelly and Kaberle haven't exactly thrived. There isn't a lot to choose from between these two. They still haven't won a game at the Bell Centre this year. Their record was built on beating non-playoff teams... the Habs were better than them against playoff teams. I like our chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeLassister Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 This is the Boston / Montreal round 1 scenario that I wouldn't be surprised to see unfold. ( for dramatic effect ) April 14 in Boston - Boston wins for the home town crowd. April 16 in Boston - Boston wins again, analysts write off the Habs because of injuries. Fans again start up the fire JM threads. ( on other forums of course ) April 18 In MTL - Montreal gets their first win. Analysts attribute it to being in the Bell Centre. Chara gets the most amazing boo-ing ever. The Habs are back in it. April 21 in MTL - Montreal wins their second in a row. The Bruins start to sweat. Habs are accused of cheating somehow and bad officiating is blamed for the Bruins loss. April 23 in Boston - Despite the cheap shots and goon tactics, Montreal pulls off an amazing last minute victory thanks to Subban. The Boston media and Brad Marchand blow their collective tops. April 26 in MTL - So close to victory and playing their last home game of the series, the Habs run out of gas / make costly mistakes in the 3rd. Series tied again. April 27 in Boston - Montreal wins 3-1. April 27th will forever be a provincial holiday in Quebec. If this was posted by Chips, I'd be thrilled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 It would appear the NHL's computers are against the Habs... Boston's path to glory will be carved early, as the Bruins were the only team that ended up taking their first-round series in a four-game sweep. In fact, they won 96.3 percent of the time in their simulated series against the Canadiens, the highest of any matchup in all four rounds of the playoffs. http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=559404 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bar Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 My question is, why do 'experts' always paint themselves into a corner. I don't care about their predictions..I want to hear their comments about the game, I can go listen to Joe Schmo at the bar give me his opinion of who'll win. I want to hear analysis of the series. What X team has to do to beat Y team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habsfan Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Good afternoon Boys. Well, I'm back from a great week of Golf in fabulous Las Vegas. Damn! I loved that town! I gotta go back. As far as my beloved Habs are concerned, I think that if Carey can win one of the first two games in boston, we have a 50% chance of taking the series. If the Habs lose both games in Boston, there's a serious chance we'll be taken out in 4 or 5 games. EVERYONE on this team needs to contirbute if we are to have any chance of winning this series. I just hope that if we do lose the series, every game will be a close, hard fought game. I DO NOT want to be humiliated again like we were in the 8-6 and 7-0 losses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrenDittero Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 (edited) It would appear the NHL's computers are against the Habs... http://www.nhl.com/i...s.htm?id=559404 That's funny. The computer has created a virtual world where the virtual Bruins beat the virtual Habs and go on to win the virtual Stanley Cup. Hope it took into account virtual bounces, virtual penalties and the virtual will to win. Not to mention the virtual fans at the Bell Centre. I think that computer and it's programmers are in for a very real surprise. Edited April 12, 2011 by BrenDittero Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chips Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 If this was posted by Chips, I'd be thrilled. Hey Joe, I may have got lucky in the regular season but the post season is a completely different place to predict. Having said that... I'll put my wager on the Habs in six as well. We must steal one of the first two games to win in six. And I certainly feel that Price can do that for us. If our team plays good defensive hockey in front of him, no second chances then we have a good shot at winning the series. GO HABS GO! I'm All In! Habs in six! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wamsley01 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Of course anything can happen, but I believe a Habs win would be an upset (not just because of our seed position). Going in they have all the advantages (home ice, healthy roster, more depth, etc). That said, Timmy can suck, they could get a few injuries in the early part of the series to key guys (imagine Chara hurting himself falling over Thomas, who in turn has his knee screwed by the weight... sorry, that is my private fantasy). At the same time, we could get off to a hot start and then have Chara gouge out Plek's eye... So I am not predicting so much as assessing odds. I don't think it is really an upset though. The Habs have been injured all season and have played fairly well with those injuries, to me they are a non-factor. If you like micro stats, this is encouraging. I pilfered this from Mathman at EOTP. Seems most analysts look at the Bruins’ goals for vs. the Habs, and immediately assume the Bruins are a world-beater, then look at their goals-against numbers and assume they are a defensive juggernaut. The Bruins’ enviable 5-on-5 goal differential make them look like the stronger team in that area, and this is why most media analysts will be predicting Bruins in 5 or 6. (Though many are saying Bruins in 7, apparently because of the season series.)A quick look at shot-based metrics paints a very different picture. The Bruins had fairly pedestrian puck possession numbers (Corsi/Fenwick), especially with the score tied, whereas the Habs’ numbers were very strong. This points to the Habs actually being the better 5-on-5 team. Certainly they are better at carrying the play. The reason the Bruins looks like and points to an interesting fact: the Bruins had the highest PDO in the league by a huge margin; their ES save percentage was 937 (1st in the league), their ES shooting percentage was 8.7% (4th). That amounts to a total PDO of a staggering 1024. They were, in a word, lucky. More than that: they were the luckiest club in the NHL. Montreal’s PDO was 995 — a very good save percentage number of 925 (8th in the NHL) but a very unfortunate shooting percentage of 7.0% (beating only New Jersey). For those keeping score, that amounts to saying the Habs’ goalies, fantastic though they were, were outplayed by the opposing goalies for the balance of the season. Or that the Habs were unusually unfortunate on shooting. This is an extreme difference in the percentages that really tilts goal-based metrics. The Bruins, for example, allow a ton of shots against, second most in the league and most among playoff teams. Even factoring in score effects, the purported “defensive juggernaut” looks very dependent on otherwordly goaltending. Their offense relies primarily on “making their shots”. Meanwhile the Habs have ridden solid goaltending and a very strong possession game to make up for the inability to buy a goal. The question then becomes — will these percentages hold through during the playoffs? They might, but given Boston’s percentages and how they resemble the Habs teams of the past, whose success was built on smoke and mirrors, I would be wary of predicting long playoffs for Boston. They very much look like the weakest of the top seeds and even if they get past Montreal, they would likely need to beat at least two of Philly, Tampa, Pittsburgh or Washington, all of which look to be far superior puck possession club. That is, if they get out of the first round. The playoffs are a crapshoot, but I’m going to cross my fingers here and hope the percentages reassert themselves and the Habs’ superior puck possession game sees them through this. Maybe the Bruins win on the depth of the 3rd/4th line, but I am not going to reduce the Habs chances based on Thornton and Campbell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOOPAVILLIN Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 (edited) It would appear the NHL's computers are against the Habs... http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=559404 That's funny. The computer has created a virtual world where the virtual Bruins beat the virtual Habs and go on to win the virtual Stanley Cup. Hope it took into account virtual bounces, virtual penalties and the virtual will to win. Not to mention the virtual fans at the Bell Centre. I think that computer and it's programmers are in for a virtual surprise. +1 Lol Edited April 12, 2011 by SOOPAVILLIN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazy26 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 If this was posted by Chips, I'd be thrilled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brobin Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I wouldn't use those stats to show Boston was lucky. Those stats show they converted better them us, which could be because they have better shooters. In any case, I think we are in tough with this series. I can't discount losing Pacs, as that really hurt our balance up front. Our record since is nothing to be excited about. I do believe we can beat the Bruins, but it will be an uphill battle. If gomez can get going we might have a chance, but otherwise Pleks will be staring down their best defensive line (and Chara) for the entire series. If Boston gets the goaltending they are use to, they will extremely tough to beat. If they start falling apart and panic like they did last year against Philly, then I think the balance tilts in our favor. To be honest, I have felt all year that Boston has the better team, but Price and (God this hurts) JM were better then expected. I have been pretty impressed with how much JM has rung out of this team, Second only to Bylsma. I figured anyone would look like a genius coach with Crosby and Malkan, but he has done as well or better without them. That is pretty damn impressive and I think they will be tough to play, in the second round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Gotta love PJ Stock on CBC. In their playoff preview, he picks Vancouver because, "you gotta go with the Canadian team." Following that logic, Boston apparently packed up and moved into Canada unbeknownst to the rest of us while the Habs are now an American team. I'm not surprised with his pick (it was a clean Boston sweep by the way) but after that comment about Vancouver at the top of the show, I have to admit I found that a little funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrenDittero Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Gotta love PJ Stock on CBC. In their playoff preview, he picks Vancouver because, "you gotta go with the Canadian team." Following that logic, Boston apparently packed up and moved into Canada unbeknownst to the rest of us while the Habs are now an American team. I'm not surprised with his pick (it was a clean Boston sweep by the way) but after that comment about Vancouver at the top of the show, I have to admit I found that a little funny. It would seem as though PJ's been getting his information from whatifsports dot com. Has Terminator 2 taught us nothing? Never trust the machines. As soon as someone hears some positive Habs playoff predictions from the sports media outside Montreal please let me know. I won't be holding my breath. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wamsley01 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I wouldn't use those stats to show Boston was lucky. Those stats show they converted better them us, which could be because they have better shooters. In any case, I think we are in tough with this series. I can't discount losing Pacs, as that really hurt our balance up front. Our record since is nothing to be excited about. I do believe we can beat the Bruins, but it will be an uphill battle. If gomez can get going we might have a chance, but otherwise Pleks will be staring down their best defensive line (and Chara) for the entire series. If Boston gets the goaltending they are use to, they will extremely tough to beat. If they start falling apart and panic like they did last year against Philly, then I think the balance tilts in our favor. To be honest, I have felt all year that Boston has the better team, but Price and (God this hurts) JM were better then expected. I have been pretty impressed with how much JM has rung out of this team, Second only to Bylsma. I figured anyone would look like a genius coach with Crosby and Malkan, but he has done as well or better without them. That is pretty damn impressive and I think they will be tough to play, in the second round. That is everybody's reaction to microstats, but over the past 3 seasons the Bruins shooting percentage has fluctuated wildly. I don't really think it shows that they have better shooters and that luck plays a bigger factor then people want to believe. But that is a discussion for another day, if one doesn't want to use the extra info, I am not going to go down the road of trying to talk people into diving into the extra information. Gotta love PJ Stock on CBC. In their playoff preview, he picks Vancouver because, "you gotta go with the Canadian team." Following that logic, Boston apparently packed up and moved into Canada unbeknownst to the rest of us while the Habs are now an American team. I'm not surprised with his pick (it was a clean Boston sweep by the way) but after that comment about Vancouver at the top of the show, I have to admit I found that a little funny. Stock is a biased fool. His opinion is useless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
habs rule Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 this one is for patches go habs go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Stock is a biased fool. His opinion is useless. I never said I valued his opinion or thought anything of it (I'd have bet everything and then some on him picking the B's because of that bias), just found his logic funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brobin Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I don't know why people are so surprised that the media is predicting Boston will win. They have more depth, the top candidate for the Vezina, and are in far better shape then us at the moment. Yes they are missing Savard, but overall they are not limping in hurt. Our D is old and beat up. If this is a hard hitting series, our D will be suffering. remember, they are not saying we CANT win this series, they are saying the odds are against us. I don't mind being the underdog, but I don't think is makes sense to pretend we are somehow the odds on favourite to win this series. Keep in mind, many experts feel the Bruins are one of the top 2 to come out of the east, based on depth, goaltending, toughness, etc. Playoffs are tough slogs and you need to be tough. I see us as fast, but not tough. Kyper picked the Habs in 7, so there ya go.. hang your hat on the old Kipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wamsley01 Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 (edited) I don't know why people are so surprised that the media is predicting Boston will win. They have more depth, the top candidate for the Vezina, and are in far better shape then us at the moment. Yes they are missing Savard, but overall they are not limping in hurt. Our D is old and beat up. If this is a hard hitting series, our D will be suffering. remember, they are not saying we CANT win this series, they are saying the odds are against us. I don't mind being the underdog, but I don't think is makes sense to pretend we are somehow the odds on favourite to win this series. Keep in mind, many experts feel the Bruins are one of the top 2 to come out of the east, based on depth, goaltending, toughness, etc. Playoffs are tough slogs and you need to be tough. I see us as fast, but not tough. Kyper picked the Habs in 7, so there ya go.. hang your hat on the old Kipper. I just don't think that there is an underdog between two teams separated by 7 points in a points inflated league (SO/OT points). Since the lockout the 6th seed has beaten the 3 seed in 60% of the matchups. I just don't see an overwhelming talent disparity that favours anybody. I don't see a major advantage in goal for the favourite and both Markov and Savard have been non-factors all season. The Habs have had the Bruins record over the last two seasons with mainly the same rosters have 18 of a possible 24 points, the Bruins got 9 of 24. All of these things are wiped clean because of 7 regular season points? The thuggery we saw or the 7-0 game? There has not been a post lockout season where a 6 seed has not won one of the matchups. The series have gone the distance more often than they have been sweeps. Seven of the matchups have gone 6 or 7 games. The differences are so minimal that a convincing argument can be made both ways. The only thing making the Habs the underdog is the 6 beside their seeding number. Edited April 13, 2011 by Wamsley01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 Our series preview is up. There may be a few more chiming in with their thoughts for the mailbag/predictions portion later on, I'll make a note of it here when that happens. http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=2456 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wamsley01 Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 I never said I valued his opinion or thought anything of it (I'd have bet everything and then some on him picking the B's because of that bias), just found his logic funny. I wasn't implying you were. Just saying that consistent logic shouldn't be expected from a slightly evolved monkey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 I wasn't implying you were. Just saying that consistent logic shouldn't be expected from a slightly evolved monkey. Just making sure we're on the same page...oh, and speaking of monkeys, gotta get this guy in there... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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