Jump to content

You're Marc Bergevin - What deal do you offer Subban?


dlbalr
 Share

Recommended Posts

Reading articles from last year, there was talk about how the Doughty deal really screwed GMs and speculated that next on Meehans list was a Subban holdout. It was setting a precident of young players expecting big money and term right off their entry contacts. Looks like they were right.

Is it possible that there are no offer sheets because other GMs actually want Bergevin to win this? Someone has to push back on these deals or RFA status will be meaningless and they will all suffer.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Reading articles from last year, there was talk about how the Doughty deal really screwed GMs and speculated that next on Meehans list was a Subban holdout. It was setting a precident of young players expecting big money and term right off their entry contacts. Looks like they were right.

Is it possible that there are no offer sheets because other GMs actually want Bergevin to win this? Someone has to push back on these deals or RFA status will be meaningless and they will all suffer.

Again, you have a good point.

Nail straight up... Galy and Nail....hmmm (never happen)

I wouldn't mind either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really don't like the way this is going. Just imagine how good PK can be when he's in his prime, which is several years from now. If Bergevin is looking to drive PK out of town, have him ask for a trade, he can get lost himself. Sure PK might be a pain in the arse. But we can't keep trading away players be because management can't deal with them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you trade Subban, you gotta find someone who can replace him. While he isn't that much bigger than Diaz, he plays a more physical game, while also providing essential offense. A great two-way defender, and he hasn't even reached his prime yet. Sure, Diaz is working for now, but what if it stops clicking? Who can take over? Weber? Bouillon? Beaulieu? Kaberle? Weber has had a lot of opportunities to show his worth and he's been sub-par. Beaulieu isn't quite NHL-ready yet and we certainly don't wanna rush him. Bouillon provides some good support on the PP, but he is an older defenseman and doesn't have PK's young energy. As for Kaberle, he could step up if you put him next to Markov, but his age is again a factor that must be taken into consideration. I know that Markov makes anyone he plays with better, but I believe that having PK, who is young, quick and can hit in the lineup is a must. Sure, maybe he annoys his teammates with his over the top attitude but he's got skill. As for the contract, I believe he should man up and take the bridge contract. I hope Bergevin won't give in. Carey Price, a 5th overall superstar goaltender accepted one and so did Max Pacioretty, a prospect everyone knew was gonna be a top 6 talent right from the start. Both are now making big bucks. Subban has done well, but he has yet to prove he is an elite NHL defenseman. If he can take a bridge contract and prove his worth in the next 2-3 years, then he will get what he's worth. I cannot believe that he watched the opening ceremony before the game against Toronto and all 3 games without wishing he was out there with his teammates. If he loves the sport, he will stop being difficult and take a bridge contract to get back on the ice and contribute to this team. As for how many years, 2-3 years at 3.5 million is acceptable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really don't like the way this is going. Just imagine how good PK can be when he's in his prime, which is several years from now. If Bergevin is looking to drive PK out of town, have him ask for a trade, he can get lost himself. Sure PK might be a pain in the arse. But we can't keep trading away players be because management can't deal with them.

We can't keep changing management to please players either.

If you trade Subban, you gotta find someone who can replace him. While he isn't that much bigger than Diaz, he plays a more physical game, while also providing essential offense. A great two-way defender, and he hasn't even reached his prime yet. Sure, Diaz is working for now, but what if it stops clicking? Who can take over? Weber? Bouillon? Beaulieu? Kaberle? Weber has had a lot of opportunities to show his worth and he's been sub-par. Beaulieu isn't quite NHL-ready yet and we certainly don't wanna rush him. Bouillon provides some good support on the PP, but he is an older defenseman and doesn't have PK's young energy. As for Kaberle, he could step up if you put him next to Markov, but his age is again a factor that must be taken into consideration. I know that Markov makes anyone he plays with better, but I believe that have PK, who is young, quick can hit in the lineup is a must. Sure, maybe he annoys his teammates with his over the top attitude but he's got skill. As for the contract, I believe he should man up and take the bridge contract. I hope Bergevin won't give in. Carey Price, a 5th overall superstar goaltender accepted one and so did Max Pacioretty, a prospect everyone knew was gonna be a top 6 talent right from the start. Both are now making big bucks. Subban has done well, but he has yet to prove he is an elite NHL defenseman. If he can take a bridge contract and prove his worth in the next 2-3 years, then he will get what he's worth. I cannot believe that he watched the opening ceremony before the game against Toronto and all 3 games without wishing he was out there with his teammates. If he loves the sport, he will stop being difficult and take a bridge contract to get back on the ice and contribute to this team.

Right on!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For anyone wondering about offer sheets, here are the thresholds from the offseason before the expiration of the old CBA:

  • Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 - 1st round pick, 3rd
  • Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd
  • Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976 - Two 1st round picks, 2nd, 3rd

With offer sheets, teams can't use other teams' picks, they have to be their own. So teams lacking their own 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rounders, can immediately be excluded from tendering an offer sheet (unless they reacquired their own selection). Here is who doesn't have their own picks this year and thus cannot offer Subban an offer sheet:

1st - LA, NYR, NJ* (still have to forfeit one either this year or next from the Kovalchuk fiasco)

2nd - CGY, NYI, ANA, NSH, OTT, CHI

3rd - EDM, FLA, NJ, TB, NSH, SJ, MIN, CHI

If you don't want to count, that's 14 teams that aren't able to tender an offer sheet (assuming that the minimum offer required for Subban to actually agree is in that second bullet).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The cap is 64.3 million next year, or exactly the same as what it was in 2011-12

For that reason there isn't much adjustment you have to make.

Consider that Tyler Myers deal was signed under the same cap number 64.3, and he isn't as good as PK IMO.

OK great.

Subban asks for a trade

We have a GM who undervalues him... and is now behind the 8 ball because every other team knows we have to get rid of him.

This is HORRID asset management.

This is setting up to be Houle level bad.

Well, let's not panic just yet.

The parallels with Houle are slightly unsettling, though. Granted, Bergevin actually is qualified for the job. Still, the guy is just settling in to the GM's chair, when a major challenge concerning one of the team's top players pops up. If we move to the next step - a trade - the parallels get even more eerie. The analogy would indeed be complete if the new GM, failing to fully understand the implications of what he's doing, ends up bringing back assets that cannot possibly approach the ultimate value of what we've lost.

So far, though, only the first of these three stages has been reached.

Let's stay calm. It may be that PK, on reflection, decides to hold his nose and sign a bridge contract. In this case, we'd have a couple of years in which to mend fences and get him signed long-term, so there is no reason why this distasteful process necessarily means he's a goner at 27.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this hardball and weekend of reflection is all about Subban budging on one or the other, term or money. I think this weekend is more of does PK really want to play in Montreal, not telling the fans what they want to hear. He also has to consider what is more important to him money or lenght.

I guarantee that if PK will accept a 2 year deal MB will offer up more than $2.5m. the meeting could of also been a mix of offers, $2,5m @ 6 years of $5.5m @ 2 years. It's a good negotiating tactic, make PK pick whats more important to him, not get his cake and eat it too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you trade Subban, you gotta find someone who can replace him. While he isn't that much bigger than Diaz, he plays a more physical game, while also providing essential offense. A great two-way defender, and he hasn't even reached his prime yet. Sure, Diaz is working for now, but what if it stops clicking? Who can take over? Weber? Bouillon? Beaulieu? Kaberle? Weber has had a lot of opportunities to show his worth and he's been sub-par. Beaulieu isn't quite NHL-ready yet and we certainly don't wanna rush him. Bouillon provides some good support on the PP, but he is an older defenseman and doesn't have PK's young energy. As for Kaberle, he could step up if you put him next to Markov, but his age is again a factor that must be taken into consideration. I know that Markov makes anyone he plays with better, but I believe that having PK, who is young, quick and can hit in the lineup is a must. Sure, maybe he annoys his teammates with his over the top attitude but he's got skill. As for the contract, I believe he should man up and take the bridge contract. I hope Bergevin won't give in. Carey Price, a 5th overall superstar goaltender accepted one and so did Max Pacioretty, a prospect everyone knew was gonna be a top 6 talent right from the start. Both are now making big bucks. Subban has done well, but he has yet to prove he is an elite NHL defenseman. If he can take a bridge contract and prove his worth in the next 2-3 years, then he will get what he's worth. I cannot believe that he watched the opening ceremony before the game against Toronto and all 3 games without wishing he was out there with his teammates. If he loves the sport, he will stop being difficult and take a bridge contract to get back on the ice and contribute to this team. As for how many years, 2-3 years at 3.5 million is acceptable.

I think Diaz is becoming the Dman that I envisioned Weber to become, the Rafalski type. However i have to disagree that Weber has plenty of chances. You can't take a young dman and flip him around from forward to Defense like Martin did and expect him to succeed. I think he is another guy who will find success when he leaves Montreal.

I don't believe either are in the class of Subban. Subban may not be big like Pronger, but he is built big and plays a very physical game. He has some of Chelios nastiness, but IMO has a much higher offensive ceiling. The habs already gave away a top pairing dman for that bum Gomez. I'd hate to see see another future all-star lost becuase the GM values him as much as Prust.

If Subban is looking for 5 or 6 years now (not even the max), there's no guarantee he'd have wanted 12. And certainly no guarantee that ownership would approve that, a 12 year deal isn't something that just the GM has a hand in. Too much of a hypothetical to call anyone an idiot in my opinion. Heck, I'm not even sure that Myers' deal is cap friendly...

No. It's merely speculation from a couple of posters.

Well that's BIG relief - It sounded from some of the posts that Subban had asked for a trade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For anyone wondering about offer sheets, here are the thresholds from the offseason before the expiration of the old CBA:

  • Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 - 1st round pick, 3rd
  • Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd
  • Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976 - Two 1st round picks, 2nd, 3rd

With offer sheets, teams can't use other teams' picks, they have to be their own. So teams lacking their own 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rounders, can immediately be excluded from tendering an offer sheet (unless they reacquired their own selection). Here is who doesn't have their own picks this year and thus cannot offer Subban an offer sheet:

1st - LA, NYR, NJ* (still have to forfeit one either this year or next from the Kovalchuk fiasco)

2nd - CGY, NYI, ANA, NSH, OTT, CHI

3rd - EDM, FLA, NJ, TB, NSH, SJ, MIN, CHI

If you don't want to count, that's 14 teams that aren't able to tender an offer sheet (assuming that the minimum offer required for Subban to actually agree is in that second bullet).

THe only team that might have been interested from that list is NYR and they already have good depth at D. I think there is a better chance of an offer sheet after this year's draft if the holdout goes on longer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, let's not panic just yet.

The parallels with Houle are slightly unsettling, though. Granted, Bergevin actually is qualified for the job. Still, the guy is just settling in to the GM's chair, when a major challenge concerning one of the team's top players pops up. If we move to the next step - a trade - the parallels get even more eerie. The analogy would indeed be complete if the new GM, failing to fully understand the implications of what he's doing, ends up bringing back assets that cannot possibly approach the ultimate value of what we've lost.

So far, though, only the first of these three stages has been reached.

Let's stay calm. It may be that PK, on reflection, decides to hold his nose and sign a bridge contract. In this case, we'd have a couple of years in which to mend fences and get him signed long-term, so there is no reason why this distasteful process necessarily means he's a goner at 27.

Calgary took a hard line with Gilmour and he finally said screw you, i've played my last game, trade me. Calgary then repeated the same mistake with Niewyendyk. At least they lucked out with Iginla, but the Gilmour trade had the same effect on Calgary as the Roy trade did on Montreal.

Anything under $4.5M for Subban is ridiculous. If the habs were to sign him for 8 years at a hit of $6M or years at $5.25M (that's around what Benn got). the habs would be getting a bargain after next year. The CAP will go up and by the time Subban is a UFA he will be easily getting $7M plus.

Great looks Like MaxPac is out for 3-4 weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Calgary took a hard line with Gilmour and he finally said screw you, i've played my last game, trade me. Calgary then repeated the same mistake with Niewyendyk. At least they lucked out with Iginla, but the Gilmour trade had the same effect on Calgary as the Roy trade did on Montreal.

Anything under $4.5M for Subban is ridiculous. If the habs were to sign him for 8 years at a hit of $6M or years at $5.25M (that's around what Benn got). the habs would be getting a bargain after next year. The CAP will go up and by the time Subban is a UFA he will be easily getting $7M plus.

Great looks Like MaxPac is out for 3-4 weeks.

Dr. Renaud Lavoie, from RDS, says that it can be as long as five weeks. I bet he will be back in three.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

THe only team that might have been interested from that list is NYR and they already have good depth at D. I think there is a better chance of an offer sheet after this year's draft if the holdout goes on longer.

Yeah, there weren't many teams on there that you could say legitimately might try it. To be honest, I did the research to see if Philly had all of their selections or whether the concerns about them were much ado about nothing, figured it was worth posting the results so everyone knew who couldn't try the offer sheet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Calgary took a hard line with Gilmour and he finally said screw you, i've played my last game, trade me. Calgary then repeated the same mistake with Niewyendyk. At least they lucked out with Iginla, but the Gilmour trade had the same effect on Calgary as the Roy trade did on Montreal.

Anything under $4.5M for Subban is ridiculous. If the habs were to sign him for 8 years at a hit of $6M or years at $5.25M (that's around what Benn got). the habs would be getting a bargain after next year. The CAP will go up and by the time Subban is a UFA he will be easily getting $7M plus.

Great looks Like MaxPac is out for 3-4 weeks.

I sure could handle PK long-term at 5.25. More than that is pushing it.

There's a difference between taking a 'hard line' and being insulting. I think that if PK finds himself on an exciting team on the way up, signed at a disappointing but tolerably non-insulting rate (4 mil-ish), the wounds will heal with time. One playoff round won, he'll want to be here for life - because nothing beats enjoying success in Montreal. Conversely, if Bergervin is basically crapping on his head with grotesque offers like 2.5, then I can certainly see PK retorting: f**k you! and taking off to an organization that actually appreciates him the first chance he gets.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I sure could handle PK long-term at 5.25. More than that is pushing it.

There's a difference between taking a 'hard line' and being insulting. I think that if PK finds himself on an exciting team on the way up, signed at a disappointing but tolerably non-insulting rate (4 mil-ish), the wounds will heal with time. One playoff round won, he'll want to be here for life - because nothing beats enjoying success in Montreal. Conversely, if Bergervin is basically crapping on his head with grotesque offers like 2.5, then I can certainly see PK retorting: f**k you! and taking off to an organization that actually appreciates him the first chance he gets.

The reported offer to Subban is a definite kick to the junk. Even with only two years of service, 2.5m is way below anything that Subban should be making. No wonder he is holding out. And I am usually always on the GM's/owner side.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, there weren't many teams on there that you could say legitimately might try it. To be honest, I did the research to see if Philly had all of their selections or whether the concerns about them were much ado about nothing, figured it was worth posting the results so everyone knew who couldn't try the offer sheet.

I figured they had their picks, since they did put in an offer sheet to Weber. To me they are the biggest threat. THey have a lot of young forwards, but have an older Defense. They were so desperate they traded JVR for a #4 like Schenn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow. I believe everything the media says as well. He must have been lowballed. He must have asked for a trade. Blah blah.

Posturing. Each side is looking for the leg up, seeing who blinks first. If MB says he can go longer term (if that is indeed a sticking point), then Subban's salary ask goes down. If Subban says he'll take a bridge (if that is indeed a sticking point), then MB's dollar amount raises.

In the business world, the first person that blinks "loses." Meehan is a good negotiator. MB obviously knows what he's doing. Subban - the wild card since, by his own admission he's thus far let Meehan do all his talking - will blink first, the deal will probably be a bridge to the tune of $3.5/4 over two years. The next contract talks, assuming continued progression and value to the club, will put Subban in line with Price.

Three Stanley Cups and two Presidents trophy's from now, this will be a completely forgotten moment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, I went to see the bulls game tonight (great game) and got my kids mask signed by Malcolm. So I asked a guy close to the Subbans (not Malcolm) to tell PK to hurry up and sign, we miss him. He told me not to worry, he talked to PK yesterday and PK assured him he would be signing. I said I heard he was seeing his parents this weekend and I bet his Dad would be sitting him down for a "talk" and my contact winked and said "exactly".

I don't want to name names, but this guy is close to all the Subbans and has known PK since he joined the Bulls. He is also a big habs fan.

So take it for what it's worth but it sure sounds like PK has every intention of getting a deal done and staying with the habs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, I went to see the bulls game tonight (great game) and got my kids mask signed by Malcolm. So I asked a guy close to the Subbans (not Malcolm) to tell PK to hurry up and sign, we miss him. He told me not to worry, he talked to PK yesterday and PK assured him he would be signing. I said I heard he was seeing his parents this weekend and I bet his Dad would be sitting him down for a "talk" and my contact winked and said "exactly".

I don't want to name names, but this guy is close to all the Subbans and has known PK since he joined the Bulls. He is also a big habs fan.

So take it for what it's worth but it sure sounds like PK has every intention of getting a deal done and staying with the habs.

I am confident he will be signing soon too. P.K has nowhere to go; he has to fold and follow the same path as Pax and Price.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone keeps saying.... "Its organizational policy that guys coming off ELC get bridge contracts."

Here's the thing.... Bergevin came from Chicago. Chicago didn't do this bridge contract thing with Toews, Kane, Seabrook, or Keith. They locked up their young stars long term, and built their teram around them. Then they went out and won the cup.

In Montreal. Gainey and Gauthier created this "bridge contract" policy. Gauthier is the guy who enforced it on Max Pac and Price.

And now we fired Goat, and hired Bergevin, out of Chicago. But we are enforcing policies created by a guy who had 0 long term vision, and 0 plan in Gauthier. WHY? WHY ARE WE USING THE PHILOSOPHY OF A MAN WHO FAILED? over the philosophy of the Blackhawks?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Exactly!

The only mistake the hawks made were screwing up the qualifying offer to their RFA's. otherwise, I've been arguing for the last couple of years that we should be taking the same approach as the hawks and flyers in signing up their young core and using the CBA to our advantage as one of the high revenue teams.

Even if you decide you don't want those young players later, signed young assets are more easily moveable. The flyers got great returns for both Carter and Richards.

It's a much better policy signing young players long term then signing over priced UFA's long term, when those guys are 2 to 3 years away from decline AND you have to pay top dollar since you have to compete with the rest of the league (which is why Gomez and Bryzghalov were able to get the contracts they did).

Everyone keeps saying.... "Its organizational policy that guys coming off ELC get bridge contracts."

Here's the thing.... Bergevin came from Chicago. Chicago didn't do this bridge contract thing with Toews, Kane, Seabrook, or Keith. They locked up their young stars long term, and built their teram around them. Then they went out and won the cup.

In Montreal. Gainey and Gauthier created this "bridge contract" policy. Gauthier is the guy who enforced it on Max Pac and Price.

And now we fired Goat, and hired Bergevin, out of Chicago. But we are enforcing policies created by a guy who had 0 long term vision, and 0 plan in Gauthier. WHY? WHY ARE WE USING THE PHILOSOPHY OF A MAN WHO FAILED? over the philosophy of the Blackhawks?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I share practically all the concerns that are being expressed. But let's STAY CALM. Colin and brobin make very valid observations about the possibility that all of this is posturing and negotiating tactics. Any disaster remains hypothetical at this point - for all we know, PK could happily sign within the next few days and everybody will move on like gangbusters. Follow Price's advice and 'chill!'

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How does anyone know if Bergevin agreed with what Chicago did, under a different CBA? How do we know if he views Toews and PK as the same class of player?

You know the owners just held out half a year attempting to eliminate the kinds of contracts that Chicago gave out. Note that Chicago probably would have won the cup with the kids on bridge deals. I see no evidence that locking them up early was why they won. They would have had all those players at that time anyway. Those deals will be judged in a few more years when they are either still elite, or burdened with bad contracts. Too early to call.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...