Respecting and supporting PK!

[Commandant]

I would say 7.5 is the max he's going to get.

With the cap rising, I wouldnt be so sure. Inflation happened the day they announced that tv deal.

[dlbalr]

http://www.lapresse.ca/sports/hockey/201312/04/01-4717752-subban-et-le-ch-sentendraient-sur-un-contrat-a-long-terme.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_hotTopics_sujets-a-la-une_1664122_accueil_POS1

Rumours are a contract of 6+ seasons for more than 8M$ per season. Oh, I totally LOVE this bridge contract.

I knew this would be coming... Let's look at the following math, projected out to eight years past his ELC:

Scenario A: 5 years at $5.5 mil (no bridge, the deal Subban was reported to be interested in), 3 years at $9 M following that (assuming for cap inflation, he'd get more then than he will in this rumour)

Scenario B: Existing bridge deal, then this hypothetical 6 year deal at $8 M (estimating since it's not done obviously).

Net costs:

A: $54.5 mil

B: $53.75 mil

The cap effects are more drastic but even in what would be considered the worst case scenario in terms of a player cranking up his value as high as Subban has, the bridge deal is still the better way to go in terms of net costs. If this reported deal comes true and it's a bit higher than 8 mil per, the two scenarios would still be relatively equal.

You can criticize the players acquired with the savings from going with the bridge and suggest it was a waste (you'd have a decent case to be made) but fundamentally speaking, the bridge deal did and will continue to make financial sense moving forward for teams. (Cap sense will vary by team but financial sense is also important.)

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I knew this would be coming... Let's look at the following math, projected out to eight years past his ELC:

Scenario A: 5 years at $5.5 mil (no bridge, the deal Subban was reported to be interested in), 3 years at $9 M following that (assuming for cap inflation, he'd get more then than he will in this rumour)

Scenario B: Existing bridge deal, then this hypothetical 6 year deal at $8 M (estimating since it's not done obviously).

Net costs:

A: $54.5 mil

B: $53.75 mil

The cap effects are more drastic but even in what would be considered the worst case scenario in terms of a player cranking up his value as high as Subban has, the bridge deal is still the better way to go in terms of net costs. If this reported deal comes true and it's a bit higher than 8 mil per, the two scenarios would still be relatively equal.

You can criticize the players acquired with the savings from going with the bridge and suggest it was a waste (you'd have a decent case to be made) but fundamentally speaking, the bridge deal did and will continue to make financial sense moving forward for teams. (Cap sense will vary by team but financial sense is also important.)

Holy! Way to think outside the box, dlbalr. This is a post to be reckoned with by anyone who wants to parrot the conventional wisdom that we should have skipped the bridge deal and locked up PK.

[dlbalr]

Holy! Way to think outside the box, dlbalr. This is a post to be reckoned with by anyone who wants to parrot the conventional wisdom that we should have skipped the bridge deal and locked up PK.

Thanks CC. To take it one step further, here's the cap effect (higher numbers in red)

A: 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 9, 9, 9

B: 2.875, 2.875, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8

So under Scenario A, the cap hit is higher 5/8 years and only 3/8 years under Scenario B.

In terms of cap space difference:

A: (-2.625), (-2.625), (+2.5), (+2.5), (+2.5), (-1), (-1), (-1)

B: (+2.625), (+2.625), (-2.5), (-2.5), (-2.5), (+1), (+1), (+1)

To total that into cap space gained/earned:

A: -0.75 M

B: +0.75 M

Of course, these are all estimates and are subject to change if/when a deal actually gets done.

[Guest Stogey24]

With the cap rising, I wouldnt be so sure. Inflation happened the day they announced that tv deal.

Yeah, didn't think about that...

[Neech]

You can criticize the players acquired with the savings from going with the bridge and suggest it was a waste (you'd have a decent case to be made) but fundamentally speaking, the bridge deal did and will continue to make financial sense moving forward for teams. (Cap sense will vary by team but financial sense is also important.)

This is the crux of the issue. We could have had cap savings going forward for when we're supposed to be contending, but instead got savings early on in the rebuild.

[DON]

This is the crux of the issue. We could have had cap savings going forward for when we're supposed to be contending, but instead got savings early on in the rebuild.

Are they not contending right now? Must have almost the best record vs Western teams dont they?

Golatending cant beat, have defensive depth, health, some top notch offensive players?

2 years ago, who would of picked NJ to make the finals? If Price plays as he is right now, can beat any team in a series, dont you think?

[Neech]

Are they not contending right now? Must have almost the best record vs Western teams dont they?

Golatending cant beat, have defensive depth, health, some top notch offensive players?

2 years ago, who would of picked NJ to make the finals? If Price plays as he is right now, can beat any team in a series, dont you think?

No, I wouldn't say we're contending yet. We're still a team that would be pretty satisfied with a second round exit (i.e. an improvement on last year). It looks like we're on the right track, though. That's why I'd take savings for the next 3-4 years over savings now.

[JoeLassister]

This is the crux of the issue. We could have had cap savings going forward for when we're supposed to be contending, but instead got savings early on in the rebuild.

This is how I think.

And I've always been in favour of trying to ink Subban for WAY more than 5 years with a 6,5M$ to 7M$ cap hit.

What I believe is that we need the 2,5M$ saving a lot more during Galchenyuk and Gallagher 4th season than we did last season and the current one.

[dlbalr]

This is how I think.

And I've always been in favour of trying to ink Subban for WAY more than 5 years with a 6,5M$ to 7M$ cap hit.

Just for the sake of number crunching (I seem to be in a number crunching mood today), let's use this idea and compare it to the above. An 8 year deal at 6.5M coming off his ELC would have cost $52M; at $7M per, $56M. In other words, in the neighbourhood of scenarios A and B. The net cap effect would have been negligible, aside from any year-to-year variance (more space some years, less in others).

[habs rule]

No, I wouldn't say we're contending yet. We're still a team that would be pretty satisfied with a second round exit (i.e. an improvement on last year). It looks like we're on the right track, though. That's why I'd take savings for the next 3-4 years over savings now.

I think we are a lot closer to contending than you think. I believe we are a trade away from picking up that goal scorer that we need. Then we will be very tought to play against.

[JoeLassister]

Just for the sake of number crunching (I seem to be in a number crunching mood today), let's use this idea and compare it to the above. An 8 year deal at 6.5M coming off his ELC would have cost $52M; at $7M per, $56M. In other words, in the neighbourhood of scenarios A and B. The net cap effect would have been negligible, aside from any year-to-year variance (more space some years, less in others).

More space when we'd really need it. More space this season is useless. Where would we be with a 2M$ player instead of a Brière this season ? Probably around the same rank. When Plek, Markov and Eller are up for a new contract, that's when we need this 2,5M$, not now.

[JMMR]

I would say 7.5 is the max he's going to get.

zzzzz\

Wake up from your dream.

I hope your right though.

I really hope its a 8 year deal.

[dlbalr]

More space when we'd really need it. More space this season is useless. Where would we be with a 2M$ player instead of a Brière this season ? Probably around the same rank. When Plek, Markov and Eller are up for a new contract, that's when we need this 2,5M$, not now.

With your proposal/preference, the Habs wouldn't have Briere or a cheaper replacement this year. The difference in space wouldn't be $2.5 M, it'd be almost $4 M. When the others you listed are needing new deals, the difference would be in the 1.5-2 mil neighbourhood per season; given the anticipated increase in the cap, that shouldn't make or break their signings.

[JoeLassister]

With your proposal/preference, the Habs wouldn't have Briere or a cheaper replacement this year. The difference in space wouldn't be $2.5 M, it'd be almost $4 M. When the others you listed are needing new deals, the difference would be in the 1.5-2 mil neighbourhood per season; given the anticipated increase in the cap, that shouldn't make or break their signings.

We would have Leblanc full time, which would not be the end of the world.

2M$ is enough to make or break 1 signing, IMO.

[dlbalr]

We would have Leblanc full time, which would not be the end of the world.

2M$ is enough to make or break 1 signing, IMO.

If you have Leblanc, then you don't have Murray. Briere to Leblanc is a ~$3.1 M gap, not $4 M so the rest has to come from somewhere (and the Habs aren't exactly a ton under the cap, especially with the pending bonuses).

As for $2 M being enough to make or break, I'd agree if the cap were set to go up a couple of million per year. After next year, it's going to shoot up much quicker than that which would lower my concern a bit (but it could be an issue, yes).

[hab29RETIRED]

just when I thought Glen Healy couldn't get any dumber, i was proven wrong. Freidman, Healey and MacLean were talking about Subban and Phaneuf. The starting point for Subban is supposed to be around $8.7M for 8 years. Based on that, Healy thinks that has to be the STARTING point for Phaneuf, since he is a UFA vs RFA and because he has been around longer!!! Comparing Phaneuf to Subban is like comparing kadri to Crosby. How can someone so dumb be around as long as he has (sorry, forgot about Cherry)!

Hopefully Healy won't be picked up by Rogers!

[Guest Stogey24]

Have any thoughts changed on P.K making team Canada?

[DON]

Have any thoughts changed on P.K making team Canada?

No, if he was older I think he would be a lock. But are so many super d-men to pick from and 2/3 of original summer invitees will be passed over, so will be complaints no matter who gets picked. And the fact he is of age to play in several more Olympics, it will factor into their decision (right or wrong?)

If I was forced to take a wildass guess, 80% chance he is on roster, but if cut I would not be crazily upset, bit pissed maybe but..

[Guest Stogey24]

No, if he was older I think he would be a lock. But are so many super d-men to pick from and 2/3 of original summer invitees will be passed over, so will be complaints no matter who gets picked. And the fact he is of age to play in several more Olympics, it will factor into their decision (right or wrong?)

If I was forced to take a wildass guess, 80% chance he is on roster, but if cut I would not be crazily upset, bit pissed maybe but..

Yeah, I can agree with that. Some of the plays he's made as of late do make me wonder if his risks do out weigh his rewards.

[DON]

Yeah, I can agree with that. Some of the plays he's made as of late do make me wonder if his risks do out weigh his rewards.

But, he simply has the puck on his stick so much more than anyone else, on the PP Markov always defers and lets PK retrieve puck and carry it much more. So if he coughs it up once in a while, not a big deal and I feel pretty darn safe with he and ol #79 on the ice.

And I still think he plays restrained offense and 99% of time he is around the opposition net, he will pass and simply give up scoring chances for himself. Give him another year or two and he may simply, be unstoppable, go to the net hard and score a lot. Coffey/Orr-like play possibly in his future (Don Cherry might beg to differ)?

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

PK made a couple of boneheaded plays last night in his own end. I do think his mistakes are magnified because of this wider narrative about him being "high risk" and an egomaniac to boot. Still, his mistakes were avoidable and he deserves flak for them. (He also seems to make them disproportionately against Buffalo - perhaps lack of respect is an issue in this?).

There's no question in my mind that PK is being heavily restrained by the coaching staff. You see him do these imaginative end-to-end rushes every now and again, and it's impossible to resist the impression that he could do about 20 of these per game if he didn't feel he'd get the boom lowered on his head for doing it. I don't blame Therrien - he's doing what any NHL coach nowadays would do - but I also regret it, because I happen to think that Subban is such a strong skater he can make his way back to cover for the risks those rushes generate about 90% of the time. If you really unleashed PK, you might have defenceman who simply blows the doors off the NHL.

In other words, I suspect that coaches in today's NHL don't really know how to handle a guy like Subban who is so gifted he just shatters all the normal rules. They try to cram him into the official mould: "don't be so risky. Don't make so many rushes." Etc. And he plays along because he knows how the world works.

In Dick Irvin's excellent The Habs, one of the players from the 1970s team talks about how Bowman used to force The Big Three to play conservative defence until the Habs were trailing in the third period. Then he'd say to Robinson, Savard and Lapointe: "OK, now you can go." And those guys would start rushing the puck, and pretty soon the Habs would be in the lead and win the game. That's what I want to see with PK: the coaches damping him down when necessary, but unleashing him when we need offence. Maybe I'm insolent to say this, but I don't think they fully understand what they have in this guy in terms of game-breaking raw talent.

[Guest Stogey24]

PK made a couple of boneheaded plays last night in his own end. I do think his mistakes are magnified because of this wider narrative about him being "high risk" and an egomaniac to boot. Still, his mistakes were avoidable and he deserves flak for them. (He also seems to make them disproportionately against Buffalo - perhaps lack of respect is an issue in this?).

There's no question in my mind that PK is being heavily restrained by the coaching staff. You see him do these imaginative end-to-end rushes every now and again, and it's impossible to resist the impression that he could do about 20 of these per game if he didn't feel he'd get the boom lowered on his head for doing it. I don't blame Therrien - he's doing what any NHL coach nowadays would do - but I also regret it, because I happen to think that Subban is such a strong skater he can make his way back to cover for the risks those rushes generate about 90% of the time. If you really unleashed PK, you might have defenceman who simply blows the doors off the NHL.

In other words, I suspect that coaches in today's NHL don't really know how to handle a guy like Subban who is so gifted he just shatters all the normal rules. They try to cram him into the official mould: "don't be so risky. Don't make so many rushes." Etc. And he plays along because he knows how the world works.

In Dick Irvin's excellent The Habs, one of the players from the 1970s team talks about how Bowman used to force The Big Three to play conservative defence until the Habs were trailing in the third period. Then he'd say to Robinson, Savard and Lapointe: "OK, now you can go." And those guys would start rushing the puck, and pretty soon the Habs would be in the lead and win the game. That's what I want to see with PK: the coaches damping him down when necessary, but unleashing him when we need offence. Maybe I'm insolent to say this, but I don't think they fully understand what they have in this guy in terms of game-breaking raw talent.

I watched Subban play a hand full of games when he was playing for Belleville; he was untouchable when rushing the puck. The difference then was he would drive the net hard as hell(it was the OHL, I know). Now he stops as soon as he hits the offensive zone. I really hate comparing Karlson and Subban, but in Ottawa they give Karlson a lot more freedom on the breakout. Subban picks up so much momentum when he crosses the red line, then stops and waits for the boys to catch up. He needs to carry that momentum and start getting some shots in deep. I now the fall back for Subbam being deep in the offensive zone, but I would like to see him drive it a bit more.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

It's important to note that absolutely no-one from Team Canada has come out to say that Subban is borderline.

[hab29RETIRED]

They haven't said that about any player.

It's important to note that absolutely no-one from Team Canada has come out to say that Subban is borderline.