GDT - With a Little Luck - Habs @ Wild

[sbhatt]

Finally, a goal!

It wasn't a goal in off someone's ass, but it was a no-look seeing eye backhand....not that far off. They all count though...and we need another.

[DON]

Nice work by Eller!

[Lovett's Magnatones]

Superstar Daniel Carr!!!!

Now let's get DD out there!

[BCHabnut]

Wild putting on a clinic on holding the lead

Zero faith in a goal here

1-9 in last 10. Total crap

[sbhatt]

:1vomit:

I'm as mad at myself for watching as I am at them for being f@!king useless.

[Commandant]

Yeah, a lot more of the same. It looks like Parise just scored from the replay, so that's four goals.

Shows that CORSI can be inflated. The Habs hired an analytics flunky, and all of a sudden they're throwing the kitchen sink at the net thinking that'll make something happen. MT is even mentioning possession in press conferences. Nothing is from the slot, and nothing is off the rush. Odd man rushes are a thing of the past.

Thats not true, because since this stretch started, the Habs are 4th in the NHL in high danger shots (ie shots taken within 15 feet of the net and from the centre of the ice)... this idea that they are just throwing stuff at the net and not getting close chances and the corsi is inflated just isn't true.

The numbers are just an insane run of bad luck over a 10 game stretch.

108 even strength shots between goals... thats not normal.

[Habinator33]

Can't say I'm shocked that this is happening. We've been saying for years this team needed another pure goal scorer. Take Gallagher out of the lineup and you are in trouble. You are stuck yet again with 3rd/4th liners in the top 6 and out there final 2 minutes of the game. Also missing our slump buster in Price.

[habs rule]

Unbelievable stats. Yes, you can say they need to drive the net more. But when you're 4th overall in high-danger chances and LAST in shooting percentage, that's simply not sustainable. We're witnessing a freak 'perfect storm' of futility.

I still say the deeper problem is the netminding. Commandant posted that the goalies have a save % of below .800 in the last four games. Well, no team is going to win like that - doesn't matter how dynamic the offence is.

You can blame the goalies all you want. But what support are they getting? 1.5 goals per game? come on. Having said that, Condom should be ashamed of himself for allowing the second goal. That was bullshite. Pure minor hockey league stuff. If you expect these guys to give you Carey Price numbers with the defence playing the way it has, you are dreaming. Le Genius has said you need 3 goals in this league to win a game, how many have we had in the last 10 games? Oh none, yuh that would be the goaltenders fault, absolutely. I am frustrated and pissed off. I can't even blame the forking Le Genius. It isn't his fault, these guys are giving their all but they can't score. That problem lies at MB's feet. We need a sniper, one that Le Genius will actually play. That may be tough to do. This is not a goal tending problem, it is a scoring problem. Hey here's an idea, let's give Condom a couple of goals and see how it goes then.

.

[dlbalr]

108 even strength shots between goals... thats not normal.

That's one heck of an 'accomplishment' - that level of offensive futility is really hard to reach.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

You can blame the goalies all you want. But what support are they getting? 1.5 goals per game? come on. Having said that, Condom should be ashamed of himself for allowing the second goal. That was bullshite. Pure minor hockey league stuff. If you expect these guys to give you Carey Price numbers with the defence playing the way it has, you are dreaming. Le Genius has said you need 3 goals in this league to win a game, how many have we had in the last 10 games? Oh none, yuh that would be the goaltenders fault, absolutely. I am frustrated and pissed off. I can't even blame the forking Le Genius. It isn't his fault, these guys are giving their all but they can't score. That problem lies at MB's feet. We need a sniper, one that Le Genius will actually play. That may be tough to do. This is not a goal tending problem, it is a scoring problem. Hey here's an idea, let's give Condom a couple of goals and see how it goes then.

.

I thought Carbo put it well on the RDS telecast last night. Asked about the offensive woes, he said two things:

1. Once scorers start to put the weight of the world on their shoulders, feeling desperate for goals, they don't produce. That is clearly what is happening here, and would be happening even if we added another scorer.

2. The real issue is defence. The Habs, he argued, need to stop the defensive breakdowns that have crept into their game during this slump, and which were on full display last night, as the Wild had 2-3 breakaways or near-breakaways and several odd-man rushes.

Carbo didn't mention the goaltending. But of course the sh**ty goaltending means that every defensive mistake gets magnified, as per your point about goal #2 last night. He probably didn't mention this because, with his coaching hat on, he knows it's not something that the Habs can do anything about, short of a trade.

Carbo is 100% correct IMHO. Our netminding sucks. That means the entire team mentality should be about playing hermetic defence. Blown coverage, odd-man rushes, etc. - these should be out of the question. And I'll bet any money that, once that happens, we will start to see more goals being scored. That was always Scotty Bowman's mantra: look after the defensive end things, and goals will follow, because you will be forcing the other team to turn over the puck and generating chances almost as a side-effect.

We all know the team needs a top-6 RW, but it's not because of that structural deficiency that this slump is happening. It's because the team is out-goaltended every damned night, and because the team has been unusually susceptible to defensive breakdowns over the stretch - owing, no doubt, to its collective anxiety to score goals. Most fans are confusing cause and effect, I think.

[habs rule]

I thought Carbo put it well on the RDS telecast last night. Asked about the offensive woes, he said two things:

1. Once scorers start to put the weight of the world on their shoulders, feeling desperate for goals, they don't produce. That is clearly what is happening here, and would be happening even if we added another scorer.

2. The real issue is defence. The Habs, he argued, need to stop the defensive breakdowns that have crept into their game during this slump, and which were on full display last night, as the Wild had 2-3 breakaways or near-breakaways and several odd-man rushes.

Carbo didn't mention the goaltending. But of course the sh**ty goaltending means that every defensive mistake gets magnified, as per your point about goal #2 last night. He probably didn't mention this because, with his coaching hat on, he knows it's not something that the Habs can do anything about, short of a trade.

Carbo is 100% correct IMHO. Our netminding sucks. That means the entire team mentality should be about playing hermetic defence. Blown coverage, odd-man rushes, etc. - these should be out of the question. And I'll bet any money that, once that happens, we will start to see more goals being scored. That was always Scotty Bowman's mantra: look after the defensive end things, and goals will follow, because you will be forcing the other team to turn over the puck and generating chances almost as a side-effect.

We all know the team needs a top-6 RW, but it's not because of that structural deficiency that this slump is happening. It's because the team is out-goaltended every damned night, and because the team has been unusually susceptible to defensive breakdowns over the stretch - owing, no doubt, to its collective anxiety to score goals. Most fans are confusing cause and effect, I think.

I like Carbo and I never thought he should have been fired. However he did not mention the goal tending because that is not the problem. I am not saying the goal tending has been great but it is sufficient. He is absolutely right that the defence has been crap. Poor defence will make any goalie look like crap. see Hasek and the Sabres. See almost any shitty goalie who goes to a better defensive team. Carey Price would not be that good on the Oilers. Just my opinion but as a former goaltender I have lived through teams that couldn't defend. I say one again look at the goals not the stats and ask yourself where the fork is the defence. 1/2 the time they are scoring on us.

[JoeLassister]

I like Carbo and I never thought he should have been fired. However he did not mention the goal tending because that is not the problem. I am not saying the goal tending has been great but it is sufficient. He is absolutely right that the defence has been crap. Poor defence will make any goalie look like crap. see Hasek and the Sabres. See almost any shitty goalie who goes to a better defensive team. Carey Price would not be that good on the Oilers. Just my opinion but as a former goaltender I have lived through teams that couldn't defend. I say one again look at the goals not the stats and ask yourself where the fork is the defence. 1/2 the time they are scoring on us.

This. But Condon is awful around his net and not helping the dmen at all when it comes to handling the puck around his crease or making a good first pass. Things that real NHL starters do several times a game.

That contributes to creating turnovers as well.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

habs rule, the goalies don't have save % below .900 because the D sucks. They have those numbers because THEY suck, as #1 NHL netminders. Condom is a serviceable backup who should be playing maybe once every five games. Tokarski is a marginal NHLer. We are, in effect, throwing guys who are equal or inferior to Peter Budaj out there night after night and expecting to win.

This doesn't let the D off the hook, however. We're in a situation where we seem to get scored on at least half the time there's a breakdown of any sort. They therefore need to batten down the hatches as much as humanly possible; and right now the team defensive game is too gaffe-prone. What Carbo was right about, I think, was that THIS is the real problem - the sub-polar offence is a symptom of our failing to get the defensive fundamentals right.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

The team needs to just start crashing the net. Knock a few goalies down, throw some bad shots at the net instead of well placed shots.They need to get angry.

[habs rule]

habs rule, the goalies don't have save % below .900 because the D sucks. They have those numbers because THEY suck, as #1 NHL netminders. Condom is a serviceable backup who should be playing maybe once every five games. Tokarski is a marginal NHLer. We are, in effect, throwing guys who are equal or inferior to Peter Budaj out there night after night and expecting to win.

This doesn't let the D off the hook, however. We're in a situation where we seem to get scored on at least half the time there's a breakdown of any sort. They therefore need to batten down the hatches as much as humanly possible; and right now the team defensive game is too gaffe-prone. What Carbo was right about, I think, was that THIS is the real problem - the sub-polar offence is a symptom of our failing to get the defensive fundamentals right.

We choose to disagree on the goalie situation. When the defence and offence were clicking Condom was unbeatable. Now the def and off suck and Condom is lousy? HMMM I think there is a correlation there. part of the reason their save percentage is low is that there aren't many shots Allow 2 goals on 10 shots and you are at .800. While we haven't been allowing many shots we have been allowing great scoring opportunities. Let's face it if these guys could score 3 goals in a game we wouldn't be having this conversation. Because we would have won a bunch of games. Can't be bothered to look at actual number, but I think we agree on that point. We need goals, not more goalies.

[Link67]

We choose to disagree on the goalie situation. When the defence and offence were clicking Condom was unbeatable. Now the def and off suck and Condom is lousy? HMMM I think there is a correlation there. part of the reason their save percentage is low is that there aren't many shots Allow 2 goals on 10 shots and you are at .800. While we haven't been allowing many shots we have been allowing great scoring opportunities. Let's face it if these guys could score 3 goals in a game we wouldn't be having this conversation. Because we would have won a bunch of games. Can't be bothered to look at actual number, but I think we agree on that point. We need goals, not more goalies.

well that's a double edged sword, who is to say we need more goals instead of allowing less? or vice versa? there could be a point made for both cases, it is literally a game by game analysis that would sway you to suggest one or the other was the problem that night. Neither issue has been the problem night in and night out, they are taking turns being an issue.

in games like Boston, Washington, Detroit, and even Carolina, our players played their hearts out, controlled most of the game we either had leads or should have had them in each of those games, but they were blown or we were snakebit. The Boston and Detroit games, it was up to the people in charge of preventing goals to close her out, and both games that failed to happen, goalies were part of that. Carolina we controlled most of the game, got behind the 8 ball quick and everytime they got a half decent chance it was in the net, it sucks the life out of the forwards when that happens as it does to every team and any player, its simply what happens. Washington was a game we should have won also, we dominated an elite team gave ourselves a chance to win but the clutch save never came and we let it slip away.

point is a confident team playing in front of price would not have lost any of those games in my opinion, so although we can't directly blame goaltending as the reason we are losing every game, it is also still an issue that is resulting in losses none the less. And i firmly believe the lack of confidence in front of the goalies is a direct result in their decent at best performances over the course of the last 3 weeks. Condon, when he was 9-1-1 during the first Price injury stint, had a .917% during the stretch, solid #1 goalie numbers there. If you look at his numbers in the current slide, or Tokarski for that matter, you will see a far different picture. This team is good enough to win some games without elite goaltending, it is not however, offensively powerful enough at this point to outscore a Goalie/Defensive slump. So where do you really place the blame then?

[habs rule]

well that's a double edged sword, who is to say we need more goals instead of allowing less? or vice versa? there could be a point made for both cases, it is literally a game by game analysis that would sway you to suggest one or the other was the problem that night. Neither issue has been the problem night in and night out, they are taking turns being an issue.

in games like Boston, Washington, Detroit, and even Carolina, our players played their hearts out, controlled most of the game we either had leads or should have had them in each of those games, but they were blown or we were snakebit. The Boston and Detroit games, it was up to the people in charge of preventing goals to close her out, and both games that failed to happen, goalies were part of that. Carolina we controlled most of the game, got behind the 8 ball quick and everytime they got a half decent chance it was in the net, it sucks the life out of the forwards when that happens as it does to every team and any player, its simply what happens. Washington was a game we should have won also, we dominated an elite team gave ourselves a chance to win but the clutch save never came and we let it slip away.

point is a confident team playing in front of price would not have lost any of those games in my opinion, so although we can't directly blame goaltending as the reason we are losing every game, it is also still an issue that is resulting in losses none the less. And i firmly believe the lack of confidence in front of the goalies is a direct result in their decent at best performances over the course of the last 3 weeks. Condon, when he was 9-1-1 during the first Price injury stint, had a .917% during the stretch, solid #1 goalie numbers there. If you look at his numbers in the current slide, or Tokarski for that matter, you will see a far different picture. This team is good enough to win some games without elite goaltending, it is not however, offensively powerful enough at this point to outscore a Goalie/Defensive slump. So where do you really place the blame then?

1.5 goals for will not win you many games. I don't care who the goalie is. I understand and appreciate what you are saying and given different circumstances I would agree. But blaming the goalies in this situation is in my opinion a knee jerk reaction, and is wrong.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I think it's the opposite of a knee-jerk reaction...my idea, sparked by Carbo, is that the offensive woes are an indirect product of the defensive woes.The latter cause the forwards to do the whole 'squeezing the stick' thing. It's in their heads. If the boys had some faith that the back end was secure, they wouldn't feel like everything depends on offence, and lo and behold, they'd get more goals. Anyway, great post from Link.

[Guest Stogey24]

They didn't score goals last year with Price in net so...?

[habs rule]

They didn't score goals last year with Price in net so...?

Very good point. The theory falls apart when you realize that with Price in net we were one of the worst offensive teams in the nhl. We needed a goal scorer last year and we need one this year. More goalies ain't gonna score any goals.

[Link67]

They didn't score goals last year with Price in net so...?

but they won with price in net, far more than they are now, even with spotty offence so...

this team is built from the backend out, with the offence being the weakest of the 3 parts of a team structure, we can't expect an offensive juggernaut from a team that isn't built as one. Our version of Crosby, Ovechkin, and Stamkos is in our net, we are a goalie first defense second and offence third type of team, its how our salary is spent, its how the value of our best players is ranked, its just how we are built. You want Bergevin to be the first ever GM to ice a team with an A+ rating in Offense, Defense, and Goaltending then by all means email him the secret formula. When everyone is ready to talk realistic team building scenarios, then we can talk about how the phalanx crumbles when one of either Goaltending or Defense stops working at a decent level for us, and results in what we are seeing now.

i'm not going to sit here and blame our weakest part of the team composition for our failures because when the team was great it was still our weakest aspect. I'm blaming the parts that are supposed to operate at a higher level than our offense, and currently aren't. Those same parts that showed us the entire month of November that when they operate at a solid level we are still a tough team to beat even without our star goalie, are showing us in December that when they are not, we fall apart.

doesn't get any more simple than that in my eyes

[KoRP]

Pretty logical assessment Link, and I tend to agree, the defense and goaltending have made it impossible for the forwards to win games lately.

The defense have given up the slot, and given up not only chances, but grade A chances, and these goaltenders are not able to miraculously save games like our hero Mr. Price.

Nutshell.

[habs rule]

but they won with price in net, far more than they are now, even with spotty offence so...

Not by a heck of a lot. On Dec 25 2014 our record 22 wins out 35. We are right now at 20 wins in 36. Get a couple of goals here or there and there would be no difference. I didn't worry about the loser points, I am only talking wins. We have exactly the same problem now as last year. No offence. We started the year on fire, same as last year and are fizzling our way down the standings. We have good goal tending, but right now we have poor defence and offence, can't win games that way. 1.5 goals per game will not win enough games even if Carey Price is in net. He is the greatest goaltender in the world and one of the best we will ever see. But he is not Superman and he just doesn't score goals. Would we have a couple more wins probably but not enough.

[hab29RETIRED]

MB would hardly be the first to have all three components. Obviously you aren't old enough to remember or know about the 50's and 70's Habs, the isles in the 80's, or even the oilers of the 80's and the 90's Avs (who both had a slightly weaker defense, but both still had B+ to A- defense).

but they won with price in net, far more than they are now, even with spotty offence so...

this team is built from the backend out, with the offence being the weakest of the 3 parts of a team structure, we can't expect an offensive juggernaut from a team that isn't built as one. Our version of Crosby, Ovechkin, and Stamkos is in our net, we are a goalie first defense second and offence third type of team, its how our salary is spent, its how the value of our best players is ranked, its just how we are built. You want Bergevin to be the first ever GM to ice a team with an A+ rating in Offense, Defense, and Goaltending then by all means email him the secret formula. When everyone is ready to talk realistic team building scenarios, then we can talk about how the phalanx crumbles when one of either Goaltending or Defense stops working at a decent level for us, and results in what we are seeing now.

i'm not going to sit here and blame our weakest part of the team composition for our failures because when the team was great it was still our weakest aspect. I'm blaming the parts that are supposed to operate at a higher level than our offense, and currently aren't. Those same parts that showed us the entire month of November that when they operate at a solid level we are still a tough team to beat even without our star goalie, are showing us in December that when they are not, we fall apart.

doesn't get any more simple than that in my eyes

[Link67]

MB would hardly be the first to have all three components. Obviously you aren't old enough to remember or know about the 50's and 70's Habs, the isles in the 80's, or even the oilers of the 80's and the 90's Avs (who both had a slightly weaker defense, but both still had B+ to A- defense).

I would definitely not consider Colorado an A+ defense at the time, and none of those teams matter in this argument because none were built under the confines of a salary cap, which is what prevents you from throwing money everywhere as you please and force you to make choices on your roster. Even the stanley cup champions don't have A+ goaltending and still make it work, they are forced to make choices with the cap, picked their poison, and made a championship team.